Financial collapse of the Russian economy

[DrBeer]

Even countries not directly involved in the war (the EU) and using Ukraine as a pawn are suffering serious negative consequences. Meanwhile, Russia was one of the countries directly involved in the war, so it's not surprising that its economy was affected.

The truth is that the Russian economy is struggling, but the problem is that the situation isn't as bad as the Western press portrays it. As of December 2025, the Russian economy showed signs of slowing down compared to the same period of the previous year, but GDP still maintained positive growth. Their economies remain strong and perform far better than those countries that have to import oil and energy from the United States at prices dozens of times higher.

Believe me, if the war doesn't end soon, we'll soon see many economies collapse even before Russia.

The war started with one simple thing; the UN. Ukraine wanted to join the European pact, and Russia said it would be Europe right on my borders and I do no want that, and the war broke out because of this. However, assuming that Russia takes these lands from Ukraine and THEN Ukraine joins, it would still be Europe on their wall, nothing changes.

If Russia didn't started a war, and only simply just made sure that they can have certain gap between them and UN, then it would have made more sense, and fixed at the table instead of tens of thousands of dead. This is why I believe Russia was the responsible one and it's normal that they get the bad end of the stick, Ukraine and Russia are doing worse than others, others are doing fine.

I highly recommend following the statements made by Kremlin propaganda since 2014, the year Russia began its terrorist war against Ukraine.
You won't believe it, but there were no problems with the EU, NATO, or anyone else! For example, for a long time, Russia itself cooperated very closely with NATO, providing its bases and logistics. Even Putin, in early 2000, spoke about Russia joining NATO! This is easy to verify!
I would also like to remind you that during the time of the pro-Russian president of Ukraine, Yanukovych, he also adhered to the idea of European integration and movement towards the EU. But when he turned to usurping power, totalitarianism, and terror against the people of Ukraine, protests began and he had to flee. The day after his escape, the terrorist country sent its terrorist groups into Ukraine, seizing the Parliament of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, and then Donetsk and Luhansk. So don't read or listen to Russian propaganda — it's purely manipulative
Everything that is happening today is precisely the result of Russia's aggression against Ukraine, which did not accept the usurper of the Ukrainian people. For the Kremlin, this was a strange blow, as Ukrainians showed that power belongs to the PEOPLE of the country, not to a handful of “eternal” totalitarian leaders. That is why Russian propaganda then changed its rhetoric about the reasons for its attack on Ukraine 100,500 times — from saving Russian-speaking people (yes, such nonsense was there at the very beginning, in 2014) to “destroying American biological laboratories breeding mosquitoes that will bite only Russian-speaking residents.” ))
NATO expansion? So now Finland and Sweden are in NATO. By the way, the idea of Ukraine joining NATO appeared AFTER the start of the terrorist war unleashed by Russia, and this idea was a CONSEQUENCE of Russia's attack, not a cause. This is also easy to verify.

But let's get back to the economy and the situation as a whole! Two simple but telling news items:
- The Russian Federation's federal budget revenues from oil and gas, which account for about a quarter of the state treasury's revenues, will fall by 0.38 trillion rubles (-48.6%) in December 2025 compared to December 2024, to 0.41 trillion rubles - the lowest level since August 2020, according to Reuters calculations.
- Russian metallurgical companies were unable to repay loans worth hundreds of billions of rubles on time

These are critical and strategic areas of the Russian economy. At the same time, half of Russia's economy is a military economy that does not produce any real products for consumption.

[DrBeer]

To be fair, Russia is the only nation that is keeping this going, the war is on Ukraine's soil, it's on their land, it's the Russians that attacked, good reason or bad reason that doesn't matter, but they did the attacking. So the only one who can stop it are the Russians, stop trying to take another nations land and you will be fine.

I think they should be made an example by ruining their economy as bad as it could, whatever the west is doing right now, they should do even more, and they should force others to cut ties with Russia and even put incredible bans on nations that continue to work with Russia, should be more like "it's us or Russia", no because I have anything against Russia, in fact, I do love Russian people, met 3 of them in a vacation once and they were the nicest people I have ever met, lovely people.

The reason would be to end wars, which means, when USA fights Iraq type of thing again, then all world should stop trading with USA, if UK attacks anywhere, stop trading with UK, the world needs to stop trading with any nation that starts wars, simple as that.

“So the only ones who can stop it are the Russians. Stop trying to take another nation's land and you will be fine.” Why are the Russians the only ones who can stop the war? In 1945, the anti-Hitler coalition stopped the war waged by Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union against Europe!
Now the civilized world must do the same, otherwise the brown plague of Russian fascism will drown a huge number of countries in blood! I agree with the idea that the direct physical destruction of a terrorist country could have very serious consequences (a rat cornered before death may make one last leap, in this case, nuclear strikes), so a better approach is to completely degrade the terrorist's country's economy and completely cease economic interaction. In addition, this will greatly increase the tension within the country, leading to protests and the likely collapse of Russia into several more adequate, independent, and free republics!
This would be both safe and beneficial for the whole world. Many regions of Russia that line the pockets of the Russian elite are raw material appendages and backward,  degrading regions. They have resources that are used only by the upper echelons in Moscow. Freedom for such regions means revival, liberty, and a better quality of life.
 

[DrBeer]

The Russian military sector has ceased to support the economy, and the country is facing financial collapse and rising prices. For the first time in three and a half years of military intervention in Ukraine, the Russian military-industrial complex has ceased to be the main driver of the economy. Production of tanks, armored vehicles, and metal products has plummeted: in September, the decline ranged from 6% to 20%.

Rosstat conceals the scale of the crisis, but even the official figures are staggering: GDP growth has stalled, budget revenues have fallen by 21%, and the deficit is five times higher than planned.

Starting January 1, the Kremlin is raising the VAT rate to 22% and eliminating benefits for small businesses, effectively siphoning off middle-class funds to finance the war. Entrepreneurs are closing their businesses, and Putin can no longer control the situation even in the food market. Gazprom has shifted its losses to the population, the Ministry of Finance is cutting spending, and new US sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil are depriving Russia of the Indian market. The only major buyer is China, but on October 30th in Busan, Trump and Xi will discuss the future of the aggressor country – without Russia.

When a warring state is unable to even maintain its own armed forces, it's not just a crisis—it's a financial collapse. To avoid becoming a permanent colony of China, Russia has only one option: end the war and save the economy. Which path will Russia choose, given that ending the war in Ukraine is mortally dangerous for both Putin himself and his regime as a whole?

Ngl, some of this reads very strong and one-sided. Rosstat data is questionable, sure, but wartime propaganda exists on all sides. Russia has been “about to collapse” for years according to headlines. That said, budget deficits + sanctions + capital flight is not a healthy combo, regardless of narrative

Sorry to interrupt your conversation. Let me explain what is meant by economic collapse. No, it does not mean 99% of the population starving, devastation, deserted cities, and 99% of factories and plants shut down. It means devastation!
Collapse is when the economy cannot function properly, when there is degradation and substitution of indicators. Now let's look at this in more detail.
1. Until recently, Russia was the world's largest supplier of hydrocarbons! Gas and oil accounted for more than 40% of the budget, which made it possible to build Moscow City, villas for those close to power, and instill confidence in the future. Now this is no longer the case. Oil and gas revenues have collapsed, and with them, essentially the entire industry. The only way out of the situation of ultra-low oil and gas prices is to increase sales, which means emptying the wells more quickly. At the same time, the Russian Federation is not developing new fields—this is very difficult and depends on Western equipment. Yes, yes, after 20 years of “economic power” and “unparalleled technology,” Russia has been unable to provide for a CRITICAL area of the economy by producing critically important equipment.
2. Currently, half of the economy is actually the military-industrial complex. No, not exports, which bring huge revenues to the budget, but the production of something that very quickly turns into burnt and twisted metal. In other words, no real product is being created for the economy and the market.
3. Selling off resources for pennies just to support a terrorist war — no matter how much some people may dislike it, both China and India refer to Russia as a “submissive raw materials appendage.” And they are taking full advantage of the situation, exclusively for their own benefit.
4. The internal indebtedness of the population has reached astronomical levels.
The question is: what would you call this situation? Mild instability? A slightly negative forecast?
 

[DrBeer]

News from their country, which claims that “sanctions are not scary” and that its economy is stable and “surpasses the West” (c) Russian propaganda

Russia sold a record amount of gold to China in November. Beijing purchased $961 million worth of gold bars, according to Russian media reports citing data from the Chinese customs service. For comparison, the peak value of deliveries in 2024 was $223 million.

To briefly describe the situation, it looks like this: “The economy is doing well, even excellently, but every day it gets worse and worse.”

China's raw materials appendage has begun selling its strategic gold reserves to its master. The question is: what will the esteemed public say, and how will it assess the situation when a country with a stable and even growing economy sells off its strategic reserves? Does Russia know that gold will collapse in price and has found a fool who doesn't know this, or is there something else going on?


And very importantly: you can write this down - in 2026, a huge amount of additional oil from one of the largest suppliers will flood the market, which means that Urals oil will trade below today's $35 per barrel, given that Russia's budget is based on a price above $60 per barrel! What will the raw materials appendage sell to its owner for “pennies”? Land, population?

[Argoo]

When Russia attacked Ukraine, it clearly didn't expect the war to turn into a drone war, relying on armored vehicles it had been accumulating for decades for the war with NATO. But Ukrainian drones have changed the course and methods of warfare.

Ukraine currently produces approximately 4 million drones per year—air, land, surface, and underwater drones with various armaments, purposes, and missions. This is more than all NATO countries combined. The United States produces approximately 100,000 expensive and often ineffective drones per year. Therefore, Ukraine provides assistance, including to the United States, by establishing joint ventures for their production.

As a result, the line of contact along the entire front has become a death zone several dozen kilometers wide, where drones from both sides destroy everything that moves. As the Russians continue to advance, they are suffering heavy losses. On average, the casualty rate is one to seven.

So, in the past year of 2025 alone, Russia lost:
- more than 418,000 of its soldiers (a total of about 1,209,000),
- 1,816 tanks (11,488 total),
- 3,806 armored vehicles (23,849 total),
- 14,146 artillery systems (35,678 total),
- 331 MLRS (1,587 total),
- 234 air defense systems (1,266 total),
- 65 aircraft (434 total),
- 17 helicopters (347 total),
- 39,743 vehicles and tankers (72,418 total),
- a total of 98,453 UAVs and 4,136 cruise missiles shot down by Ukraine,
- a total of 28 ships/boats and 2 submarines.

The relatively small number of Russian tanks and armored vehicles destroyed in Ukraine in 2025 is explained by the fact that they have already become scarce on the battlefield. Russia is already saving the remains, which cannot be said for its own soldiers.

In total, Russia has already spent over $550 billion on the war with Ukraine in direct costs alone. If Putin had spent these funds on the economy, Russia would have become a prosperous state.

Meanwhile, the damage inflicted on Ukraine amounts to at least $800 billion, and Russians will have to pay for this as reparations for generations to come.

[Smack That Ace]

If Putin had spent these funds on the economy, Russia would have become a prosperous state.

That could also apply to Ukraine, if Ukraine does not heed the EU's instigation against Russia. Or, if they had been wiser and decided to end the war right from the first rounds of negotiations, just about two weeks after the conflict broke out. Ukraine is now also a much more prosperous country.

Instead, Zelenskyy chose to become a puppet in the hands of Western leaders, turning Ukraine into a proxy battleground against Russia for the benefit of the EU, where the Ukrainian people paid the price with their lives and the economy suffered heavy losses. And even worse, in the end, the minerals went to the US and the land went to Russia.

[jaberwock]

When a nation has a huge income, it's hard to bankrupt them for good. Sure they may go through a bad period, but they will still be very strong on the long term. I mean that if they were lets say fifth largest economy in the world, they could drop to 9th, but not to 88th, that much is known.

Russia has nearly unlimited resources, obviously not unlimited but the limit is so high that for the next 20 years they can take out all of their resources they can at 100% rate and still not be done with it. So it's hard to bankrupt them, just ruin their economy for a generation at most.

[colinistheman]

When a nation has a huge income, it's hard to bankrupt them for good. Sure they may go through a bad period, but they will still be very strong on the long term. I mean that if they were lets say fifth largest economy in the world, they could drop to 9th, but not to 88th, that much is known.

Russia has nearly unlimited resources, obviously not unlimited but the limit is so high that for the next 20 years they can take out all of their resources they can at 100% rate and still not be done with it. So it's hard to bankrupt them, just ruin their economy for a generation at most.

Russia is one of the world's most resource rich countries, with an estimated total resource value of around $75 trillion. They are the second largest oil producer, have the third largest natural gas reserves, and the second largest coal reserves globally. Not to mention, they are also leading suppliers of raw gold and aluminum, and the world's largest exporter of wheat. With such vast mineral resources, the world is even somewhat dependent on them. So, yes, for a resource-rich country like Russia, economic collapse is almost impossible.


https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-top-10-countries-by-value-of-all-their-natural-resources/?referrer=grok.com

[Argoo]

If Putin had spent these funds on the economy, Russia would have become a prosperous state.

That could also apply to Ukraine, if Ukraine does not heed the EU's instigation against Russia. Or, if they had been wiser and decided to end the war right from the first rounds of negotiations, just about two weeks after the conflict broke out. Ukraine is now also a much more prosperous country.

Did the European Union incite Ukraine against Russia? You're probably joking. I'd like to hear your arguments on this matter, not just a general statement. In 2014, EU countries, and especially Germany, persuaded Ukraine not to offer armed resistance to Russia when it seized Crimea. This was a fatal mistake for Ukraine, which subsequently led to the loss of part of the Donbas region. Ukraine also offered very weak resistance to separatism and the entry of heavily armed Russian military forces into the Donbas.

The passive stance of EU countries and the US, both during Russia's occupation of part of Ukraine in 2014 and in the following years, led Putin to go further and launch a complete takeover of Ukraine in February 2022. Only the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Ukrainian people as a whole prevented Putin from carrying out this plan. The US then offered to organize Zelenskyy's escape from Ukraine and, together with EU countries, were prepared to accept Ukraine's fall.

Relying on the 1994 Budapest Memorandum guaranteeing territorial defense from the United States, Russia, and the United Kingdom, Ukraine transferred its third-largest nuclear arsenal to Russia, along with strategic bombers and other military equipment, and significantly reduced the size of its army and its weapons.

Currently, Ukraine meets 78 percent of its weapons and military equipment needs with domestic production, while its drone requirements are 90 percent met. Russia, having lost over 418,000 troops and a significant portion of its military equipment by 2025, managed to occupy only 0.72 percent of its territory last year.

Do you think Ukraine should have surrendered to Russia and thereby ensured its prosperity? That's a completely foolish assertion, since in that case, any independent Ukrainian state would have been impossible. In the Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia, Russia is destroying everything Ukrainian, including textbooks, history, and culture. Those who refuse Russian citizenship must obtain a residence permit and be considered foreigners in their own country. According to the Kremlin's plan, all those deemed undesirable should be killed or deported far away to Siberia and replaced by Russians. Is this prosperity for Ukraine?

[Smack That Ace]

Did the European Union incite Ukraine against Russia?

Otherwise, why shouldn't Ukraine have the right to determine its own national destiny? Most of the terms, agreements, and negotiation with Russia are represented and decided by the United States and the EU. Notably, the recent negotiations involved only the US and Russia. EU and Zelenskyy were not even informed, let alone invited to participate.

Why were the peace talks only between Trump and Putin, and Zelenskyy receive only brief briefings afterward?

Do you think Ukraine should have surrendered to Russia and thereby ensured its prosperity?

If Ukraine had abandoned its intention to join NATO 4 year ago, the war might have ended and they would not have suffered such heavy losses in resources, economy, and human lives

After 4 years, they finally had to abandon the idea and share most of their mineral resources with the US, and their land with Russia. Do you think that plan is a sensible one?

[Alpha Marine]

Russia is one of the world's most resource rich countries, with an estimated total resource value of around $75 trillion. They are the second largest oil producer, have the third largest natural gas reserves, and the second largest coal reserves globally. Not to mention, they are also leading suppliers of raw gold and aluminum, and the world's largest exporter of wheat. With such vast mineral resources, the world is even somewhat dependent on them. So, yes, for a resource-rich country like Russia, economic collapse is almost impossible.

Not to mention that Russia has a significant amount of heavy oil, which is the most rare kind, the same kind of oil the US want from Venezuela right now.
The situation of the Russian economy is overestimated. Of course, they will struggle; war is expensive, especially modern warfare, but they won't collapse. This is not the first time they have been in a similar position, and they scale through it.
The thing is, both Russia and the West are good at propaganda. The West claims the Russian economy is dying, while Russia claims the economy is as strong as ever. Both parties exaggerate their stance.  The Russian economy is struggling seriously, which is expected for a country that has been in a war for three years, but it is not collapsing or dying.

[colinistheman]

Russia is one of the world's most resource rich countries, with an estimated total resource value of around $75 trillion. They are the second largest oil producer, have the third largest natural gas reserves, and the second largest coal reserves globally. Not to mention, they are also leading suppliers of raw gold and aluminum, and the world's largest exporter of wheat. With such vast mineral resources, the world is even somewhat dependent on them. So, yes, for a resource-rich country like Russia, economic collapse is almost impossible.

Not to mention that Russia has a significant amount of heavy oil, which is the most rare kind, the same kind of oil the US want from Venezuela right now.
The situation of the Russian economy is overestimated. Of course, they will struggle; war is expensive, especially modern warfare, but they won't collapse. This is not the first time they have been in a similar position, and they scale through it.
The thing is, both Russia and the West are good at propaganda. The West claims the Russian economy is dying, while Russia claims the economy is as strong as ever. Both parties exaggerate their stance.  The Russian economy is struggling seriously, which is expected for a country that has been in a war for three years, but it is not collapsing or dying.

It is undeniable that Russia is facing many difficultie because no country can sustain economic growth while engaged in a prolonged war.  However, the likelihood of them collapsing completely, as some Western media outlet are spreading is low.
If I remember correctly, when the war entered its second year. Western intelligence agencies declared they had run out of weapons and the economy could not survive for more than 6month. But four years have passed and they are still fighting, and will not stop until they achieve what they want.

If I had to worry about which economy would collapse first, I would be more worried about the countries of the older continent

[Argoo]

Did the European Union incite Ukraine against Russia?

Otherwise, why shouldn't Ukraine have the right to determine its own national destiny? Most of the terms, agreements, and negotiation with Russia are represented and decided by the United States and the EU. Notably, the recent negotiations involved only the US and Russia. EU and Zelenskyy were not even informed, let alone invited to participate.

Why were the peace talks only between Trump and Putin, and Zelenskyy receive only brief briefings afterward?

Do you think Ukraine should have surrendered to Russia and thereby ensured its prosperity?

If Ukraine had abandoned its intention to join NATO 4 year ago, the war might have ended and they would not have suffered such heavy losses in resources, economy, and human lives

After 4 years, they finally had to abandon the idea and share most of their mineral resources with the US, and their land with Russia. Do you think that plan is a sensible one?

The issue of Ukraine's accession to NATO was removed from the agenda long before Russia's February 2014 invasion of Ukraine, when its troops seized Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula.

On July 1, 2010, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, when the pro-Russian Yanukovych was still president, adopted the Law on the Fundamentals of Domestic and Foreign Policy, which enshrined Ukraine's non-aligned status and reversed the country's NATO accession plan. The law also amended the Law of Ukraine on the Fundamentals of National Security. Specifically, the provision on Ukraine's integration into the Euro-Atlantic security space was removed from the article defining the priorities of national interests. However, the goal of membership in the European Union was retained, "while maintaining good-neighborly relations and strategic partnership with the Russian Federation, other CIS countries, and other countries of the world."

Thus, when Russian troops invaded Crimea in 2014, and then the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine, Ukraine had a non-aligned status.

Only later, when Ukraine received no assistance under the Budapest Memorandum on security guarantees and was forced to repel Russian aggression itself, on February 7, 2019, five years after the Russian invasion, did the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine approve a bill amending the country's constitution, enshrining the strategic course for Ukraine's full membership in the European Union and NATO.

Thus, the attack by Russia, which itself had been the guarantor of Ukraine's security and had pledged not to attack it, served as an impetus to reconsider its domestic and foreign policies and seek other paths to collective security, because Russia's words were not worth the paper it signed.

Regarding the plan to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, it's too early to draw any final conclusions. Ukraine has never given up, nor does it intend to give up, its territories, and defends its independent policies and national interests. This is confirmed by the fact that for a year now, despite Trump's intense pressure, Ukraine has refused to make territorial or other concessions to Russia.

[Abiky]

Not to mention that Russia has a significant amount of heavy oil, which is the most rare kind, the same kind of oil the US want from Venezuela right now.
The situation of the Russian economy is overestimated. Of course, they will struggle; war is expensive, especially modern warfare, but they won't collapse. This is not the first time they have been in a similar position, and they scale through it.
The thing is, both Russia and the West are good at propaganda. The West claims the Russian economy is dying, while Russia claims the economy is as strong as ever. Both parties exaggerate their stance.  The Russian economy is struggling seriously, which is expected for a country that has been in a war for three years, but it is not collapsing or dying.

Russia is severely weakened, but that doesn't mean it will collapse. In fact, allies such as China, North Korea, India, and Iran continue to do business with it. This has allowed Russia's economy to survive, amidst all of the sanctions imposed by the West. Putin knows he can't win a war against Ukraine + The West, but he keeps insisting because he knows that at some point in the future, the West is going to run out of money and stop supporting Ukraine altogether.

The West is already feeling the pain of their prolonged support for Ukraine. Once they stop giving weapons and money to it, Russia will seize the opportunity to rise from the ground up. That's the way this works. Putin is playing chess, and it won't be long before he wins. He's even using Donald Trump as his pawn by fooling him with the "Ukraine Peace Deal". A weakened West, will pave the way for a New World Order with China and Russia at the helm. Just you wait and see.

[DrBeer]

...
In total, Russia has already spent over $550 billion on the war with Ukraine in direct costs alone. If Putin had spent these funds on the economy, Russia would have become a prosperous state.
...

You see, the concept of the so-called “Russian world” is not about making Russia better. It's about “making everything else as bad as possible” so that we can be proud of our primitive achievements. In other words, to lower the standard of living of Russia's neighbors to that of Russia, and to consider this a high quality and something to be proud of, convincing their slaves that “the whole world envies us”!
And most importantly, the Kremlin's bald, pathetic parody of the Führer is terrified of freedom, which is why in 2014 he invaded Ukraine after the Ukrainian people overthrew the Yanukovych regime (a lighter version of Putin) to show everyone that you can't treat usurpers of power that way.
 And now he will throw all his slaves into the furnace, just to save his own skin, and he doesn't care about Russians, they are worthless expendable material to him.

[fillippone]

An interesting article I read today on The Guardian about the russian economy:

The Russian economy is finally stagnating. What does it mean for the war – and for Putin?


Russia has been experiencing demographic problems, and, coupled with high inflation and high military spending which suffocated the economy, finally the sanctions are taking a toll omn the economy: 

	THe economy started to stagnate	Inflation is stadyl aboce average
	Govenrment is spending on "other stuff"	Oil exports are failing

[arwin100]

An interesting article I read today on The Guardian about the russian economy:

The Russian economy is finally stagnating. What does it mean for the war – and for Putin?


Russia has been experiencing demographic problems, and, coupled with high inflation and high military spending which suffocated the economy, finally the sanctions are taking a toll omn the economy: 

	THe economy started to stagnate	Inflation is stadyl aboce average
	Govenrment is spending on "other stuff"	Oil exports are failing

Their economy did not collapse overnight, but the damage created by those issues they are facing is widening. IMF project economy growth of Russia is so low in year 2025 and also 2026 and that is the weakest rate they have got after those sanction gotten by their country began.

With those situation happened they start to struggle to finance their war and those leaves labor shortage, declining of their oil revenues and worst more higher inflations.

Those heavy sanctions gotten by Moscow didn't give them immediate bad results,  but if there economy became more stagnant maybe they could feel more heavy declines in future.

Some nice article to read regarding on the topic discussed https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/01/02/russias-economy-in-2026-more-war-slower-growth-and-higher-taxes-a91579