Betting on teams in a losing streak - smart move or bad idea?

[Botnake]

Just a thought, when a team keeps on losing, they’ll obviously work harder until they get a win right? so maybe that could be a good angle to bet on.

The idea is simple, find a team that’s on 3 or more losing streak, then start backing them to win. sooner or later they’ll break it, and if you time it right maybe you’ll catch that bounce back game. But I’m not sure if that really works or it’s just one of those gambler’s fallacy stuff. what you guys think?

[Charles-Tim]

Not a good idea but it depends on the team that is playing, I may think otherwise for a very strong team. If a team is losing, it is better you should avoid the team because the team might either still lose or draw and which are still a loss if you bet on the team to win. I prefer to go for strong team instead of weak teams. The odd can be smaller but I prefer it that way.

[Hazink]

They can still continue to be on the losing streak for a long period of time before they finally see a win, and before that, your lucky day you might have lost more than what you are going to win.

And if such should be considered, you will have to watch which team they are up against and if their chances of winning are high or low, and not just follow them up blindly, as that's going to be a waste of strategy.

[Localhostspeed]

Just a thought, when a team keeps on losing, they’ll obviously work harder until they get a win right? so maybe that could be a good angle to bet on.

The idea is simple, find a team that’s on 3 or more losing streak, then start backing them to win. sooner or later they’ll break it, and if you time it right maybe you’ll catch that bounce back game. But I’m not sure if that really works or it’s just one of those gambler’s fallacy stuff. what you guys think?

That's a bad idea, it's possible for a team to have 3 losing streak from there to 7 loss in a row. What can you say about a team in relegation zone, how many times do they bounce back. Some teams can go on a 7 weeks without any win and then win one. Let's say you bet $10 on a single them for them to win and the bookmakers game you 4 odd, if you win that game, you will win $40 dollar but when you lose 7 games you will lose $70, where is the sense in this kind of logic.

It's not a must that you have to bet on a team to win. You can bet on them to lose and to are going to make  a cut from it, the only downside of this is that if bookmakers knows that something is obvious, the odd will be small or in significant to your wager, just make sure you play around the market and select market that you kmow the team is capable of doing, sometimes it's better you play around number of goals that can be score in a match than relying on a single outcome from a team.

[blomen]

that's definitely a bad idea. would you bet on a team that's on a winning streak to lose? think about it that way. if that makes sense to you, there's a much simpler explanation. i've written about this before.

when flipping a coin, if you get heads or tails several times in a row, you think the next one will be the opposite. when you try again, your prediction may or may not come true. but in reality, previous results have no effect on subsequent coin tosses. even if your previous 1 million tosses were all heads, the probability of heads or tails on the next toss is always fixed at 50%.

it's the same in soccer. some teams sometimes go on winning streaks, and that's normal because there are three possible outcomes for a team in a match: you win, you draw, or you lose. with dozens or hundreds of teams playing matches every week, it's very normal for some of them to get the same result several times in a row.

[Davidvictorson]

Just a thought, when a team keeps on losing, they’ll obviously work harder until they get a win right? so maybe that could be a good angle to bet on.

The idea is simple, find a team that’s on 3 or more losing streak, then start backing them to win. sooner or later they’ll break it, and if you time it right maybe you’ll catch that bounce back game. But I’m not sure if that really works or it’s just one of those gambler’s fallacy stuff. what you guys think?

Personally, I do not think it is great move. Even a die-hard fan will not bet on their club during their losing streak. It is a poor investment/ betting strategy. Better not to even bet at all than to bet on a teams in a losing streak. Unless the person is experimenting with it and wants to see what the outcome would be. If not even betting with money you can afford to does is excluded from this type of move.

[Sticky Bomb]

Just a thought, when a team keeps on losing, they’ll obviously work harder until they get a win right? so maybe that could be a good angle to bet on.

The idea is simple, find a team that’s on 3 or more losing streak, then start backing them to win. sooner or later they’ll break it, and if you time it right maybe you’ll catch that bounce back game. But I’m not sure if that really works or it’s just one of those gambler’s fallacy stuff. what you guys think?

Are you indirectly referring to Liverpool? Bad guy . I've predicted them already to win Aston Villa in today's match, let's see if your theorem is validated in that match.

If this is happening to a big team like the one mentioned above, it might be subject to key players suffering injuries, players going out of form and other concerns. They always find their footing and bounce back with proper squad reinforcement and restrategized tactics. But if it's an underdog, there may not be much that they can do about it since they're already disadvantaged with respect to quality of players that makes up the team.

[qwertyup23]

Just a thought, when a team keeps on losing, they’ll obviously work harder until they get a win right? so maybe that could be a good angle to bet on.

The idea is simple, find a team that’s on 3 or more losing streak, then start backing them to win. sooner or later they’ll break it, and if you time it right maybe you’ll catch that bounce back game. But I’m not sure if that really works or it’s just one of those gambler’s fallacy stuff. what you guys think?

If you are betting on a team who has a losing streak and your justification to this is because "eventually they will win like some sort of a pity counter, then you're going to have a bad day when you will rely on this sole factor.

Instead of viewing losing teams like they have a hidden pity counter, look at the angles and reasons on why they are losing in the first place. Perhaps their star player is injured; or maybe they have tons of injuries; or a drastic change to their coaching staff?

Lots of reasons on why these teams are losing and you should perhaps focus on those reasons rather than what you are suggesting OP.

[Alpha Marine]

If you've been backing Liverpool from the 3rd straight loss, you've lost in 3 out of 4 bets you've made on them, and the one you won was with very small odds. When a team is on a losing streak, it's not a good move to bet on them. You can either avoid them or play other options, like goals.
It's fine if you just want to take a bigger risk, but most of the time, it doesn't pay off because even if you finally win, you must have lost like over 3 times before that one win.

When gambling, the current form of the team should be a very big factor to consider. It doesn't matter how big that team may be, as long as they are in a bad form, playing them to win is just you betting with bias or emotion. A lot of other factors should be considered, like the availability of their key players, the fitness level of their players, the stadium (home or away), but current form is a bigger factor in my opinion.

[Ruttoshi]

Just a thought, when a team keeps on losing, they’ll obviously work harder until they get a win right? so maybe that could be a good angle to bet on.

The idea is simple, find a team that’s on 3 or more losing streak, then start backing them to win. sooner or later they’ll break it, and if you time it right maybe you’ll catch that bounce back game. But I’m not sure if that really works or it’s just one of those gambler’s fallacy stuff. what you guys think?

I wouldn't open my eyes and bet on any team on a losing streak because it means that you don't care about winning your bet. Let's use United and Tottenham last season in EPL, none of them qere able to fight back to the point of winning two consecutive matches.

I bet on a team based on my analysis and research. I don't bet blindly because I want to win my bet. Let the losing streak team start winning their matches before I can consider betting on them.

[Tungbulu]

Is that supposed to be a technique or just a hunch?

Well I can’t say if that’s a good idea or a bad one, but I guess the best way to actually find out if it’s good or bad would be to try it out, for now it’s just a theory that no one actually knows for sure if it’ll work or not, people will only tell you what they think, but actually experience would speak much meaning.

Although, these method could have its cons too. For example, there’s no guarantee that a team that’s been outperforming would automatically comeback with some wins, it’s possible that they’ll win a few games and maybe draw most of their games (that’s if they don’t lose). But I guess we’d never know for sure until you or someone tried it.

[ejikeme24]

Well, I would say that it depends because sometimes those teams which we think they're more superior can lose for the first time and when this happen, some gamblers can just see it as a mere coincidence and still go for the same team the following week with the hope that they Will improve in their next match and that's how they will keep rotating it. I personally do not give second chance to any team if I try a team for the first time and they failed, I won't think of adding them to my bet the following week.

[Porfirii]

Just a thought, when a team keeps on losing, they’ll obviously work harder until they get a win right? so maybe that could be a good angle to bet on.

The idea is simple, find a team that’s on 3 or more losing streak, then start backing them to win. sooner or later they’ll break it, and if you time it right maybe you’ll catch that bounce back game. But I’m not sure if that really works or it’s just one of those gambler’s fallacy stuff. what you guys think?

I wrote it in bold in your post, OP. Maybe means that you can win or you can lose.

It is true that most teams should go back to the mean after a losing streak, but that depends on many other factors which cause deviations from that mean so I don't think it really works because it could be a streak of 3, 4, 5, ... games. Betting only based on these past poor results won't make it more probable to get the bet right.

[Lucius]

~snip~
The idea is simple, find a team that’s on 3 or more losing streak, then start backing them to win. sooner or later they’ll break it, and if you time it right maybe you’ll catch that bounce back game.

What if the losing streak continues for 6 or more games without a win? Unless you have a big bank and you constantly increase the stakes even when you reach the first win, you will not be able to cover all the losses you had until then.

My opinion is that if someone is going to use this strategy, they should look for teams that have not won at least 6 consecutive games, and let's say they are playing a team that has not lost in the same number of games. In such situations, even a weaker team can play an above-average game and defeat a much stronger opponent.

[YOSHIE]

Just a thought, when a team keeps on losing, they’ll obviously work harder until they get a win right? so maybe that could be a good angle to bet on.

In the world of sports, there are very different views on teams that lose in a row.
The reason: they often replace players, replace the coach and what's worse is not confident and enthusiastic, that's what happens to a team that often loses matches.

When a team loses in a row in every match, for me betting is a bad idea, the method of changing players is riskier, they always adapt well to fellow players and also opponents. quite a few sports teams do not recover from the effects of successive defeats, even though they train hard, the winning team also does the same thing and trains even harder, from 10th place they want to go to 1st place, that is what often happens in the world of football, so choosing to gamble on a team losing in a row is a bad idea for me.

[Abu-Naim]

Just a thought, when a team keeps on losing, they’ll obviously work harder until they get a win right? so maybe that could be a good angle to bet on.

The idea is simple, find a team that’s on 3 or more losing streak, then start backing them to win. sooner or later they’ll break it, and if you time it right maybe you’ll catch that bounce back game. But I’m not sure if that really works or it’s just one of those gambler’s fallacy stuff. what you guys think?

It all depend on how good is the coach and the players are improving; if they were losing their games due to injuries, and none of their key players are back from injury, then it is very risky to bet on them to return to form or winning matches because a team without players can’t win you a match unless if they play against a team without players can’t same problem with them, and the bookmakers will make the odd small for both of the teams considering their conditions.

If the team didn’t have any injured player, and their losing was coming due to poor form or the coach formation, you can bet on them because the key players in that team will want to get it right in any match and the coach will also want to win to give their fans hope; in that case, betting on such teams is not a bad idea at all because you will have a good odd.

[iv4n]

As some other members pointed out already, what happens if the losing streak continues? Do you plan to apply a bit of martingale and raise stakes? I guess there's no point in staking the same amount... the games with weaker opponents will have very low odds.

I don't think it's smart to bet on some random team with 3 or more lost games... Maybe there's something in following a few teams on a losing streak and waiting for a perfect moment to place a bet on them to win. But for that, you really need to get into it... and you need a lot of patience.

[rbynxx]

Just a thought, when a team keeps on losing, they’ll obviously work harder until they get a win right? so maybe that could be a good angle to bet on.

The idea is simple, find a team that’s on 3 or more losing streak, then start backing them to win. sooner or later they’ll break it, and if you time it right maybe you’ll catch that bounce back game. But I’m not sure if that really works or it’s just one of those gambler’s fallacy stuff. what you guys think?

Yes that's a common thought especially if we're just bettors and just blindly think their preset or future performance will somehow change but that's we bettors are thinking. Well, it's not that difficult to find them especially on major leagues and by just speculating they'll turn things around without backing with improvise coach plan or improving the roster you're likely just donating an obvious game. That's just house giving you lead that it's a value bet, it's more like fallacy stuff.

[Peanutswar]

Just a thought, when a team keeps on losing, they’ll obviously work harder until they get a win right? so maybe that could be a good angle to bet on.

The idea is simple, find a team that’s on 3 or more losing streak, then start backing them to win. sooner or later they’ll break it, and if you time it right maybe you’ll catch that bounce back game. But I’m not sure if that really works or it’s just one of those gambler’s fallacy stuff. what you guys think?

Seems to depend on the performance still, because there are good teams just sadly having a bad draft of the group stage like they face the team who really performed well so there are some bad drafts and matches right there, now if thats not the case and the performance is poor and you cant see any potential on the team it seems its way more riskier to make a bet its just a waste of money and a waste of time more likely if you are an enthusiast you every game they made, every mistake and every move if they are willingly want to win the game. Never doubt your guts on the game that you see is has a higher chance to lose your money. Not all game are worth it to make a bet.

[Orpichukwu]

Personally, I do not think it is great move. Even a die-hard fan will not bet on their club during their losing streak. 

Some actually do place bets on their team irrespective of the positive they are in; they just can't bear to place bets on them to lose. I don't know if I should call it stupid or harmless support, because placing a bet with money is beyond just loving the team; it goes down to you also expecting some great return with hope. If it doesn't, you accept it in good faith, but not when it's already obvious that it will be a loss and some still go ahead and do that.