The quiet bull market 2025 could mean the next bear to be less deep

[d5000]

We could be experiencing a shift in Bitcoin's price behavior.

The rally in 2025 looked like this, on a log scale:



Compare that to 2021, same scale:



We see that the rally in 2021 was much steeper, fueled probably by constant FOMO. 2017 and 2013 were even crazier. 2025, instead, there were constant dips and then sometimes larger moves to the upside too, but never a single parabolic movement like the last two legs in 2021.

Now my thoughts are: Bitcoin trader and investor movement depends a lot on mass psychology. People know that a steep rally can mean that in some moment there will be massive profit taking, where everybody tries to cash out at the same time. Panic would follow, deepening the negative price tendency. And that lead into the deep bear markets we have experienced (e.g. 2018 and 2022) with more than 75% loss compared to the ATH.

But if the rally itself was quieter, there could have been profit taking already at different points. Not everybody would cash out at the same time. And that could mean we don't see these crazy panic movements anymore.

The other element which could strenghten the price even in bear markets is of course the much higher involvement of institutional investors. While they will also sometimes sell to take profits and cut losses, I believe they are not reacting as panick-y as retailers. And there are some like Strategy that will only sell in extreme conditions.

What do you mean? How deep will the next bear market go, and what do you think are the reasons? (Poll added.)


Note: This does not mean that I think we're already in a bear market. While I think there is a 50% probability the cycle top is already in at 126k, I believe there is a decent chance for new ATHs, even in 2026.

[Doan9269]

Just as you have mentioned, there is likely high probability of having all time high this year end or even got shifted towards the new year, once we already have the mind that the last one for the season is yet to be marked.

Secondly, if we look from the chart and also dice into some aspects of it's historic performance, both on a short and long time frame, we are going to see the more on how positive it is in having the market performs more better even than we expected, where we are currently could be the least for the month and before you knew it, we are already back in the bullrun nto mark some new heights as usually expected.

[Mrbluntzy]

There might be a less deep in the upcoming bear market than it was in the previous year. After considering the too many involvement (interest) of so many companies into Bitcoin, even the government too showing interest to have Bitcoin reserve, and more massive adoption that is forthcoming, I have to think that the bear market won't look like the past season unless there's a sudden economic disaster which could unexpectedly arise to make price deep so bad.

[d5000]

[...] involvement (interest) of so many companies into Bitcoin, even the government too showing interest to have Bitcoin reserve, and more massive adoption that is forthcoming, I have to think that the bear market won't look like the past season unless there's a sudden economic disaster which could unexpectedly arise to make price deep so bad.

We have to observe if the institutional involvement continues to grow even in less bullish times. That's a bit of the problem with the ETFs: it also gives new sources of funds to the bears to short sell with much higher amounts of capital.

However, in general the liquidity should increase on both sides (buy and sell orders), which means that if the actors are relatively rational (and not delusional) then the price should be more stable.

Regarding further adoption, IMO the next bear market could generate either a vicious cycle, if it is deeper than expected and both institutionals and retailers flee Bitcoin, or a virtuous cycle, if people realize that it is a good idea to fish dips because the price will usually recover. This could even happen in a slight bear market (e.g. less than 5% loss per month, like in mid-2024), because the dips often go much deeper due to liquidations, and thus if you buy in the moment of "maximum panic" there's always a big chance (way over 50%) you'll make a decent profit.

[EluguHcman]

There might be a less deep in the upcoming bear market than it was in the previous year. After considering the too many involvement (interest) of so many companies into Bitcoin, even the government too showing interest to have Bitcoin reserve, and more massive adoption that is forthcoming, I have to think that the bear market won't look like the past season unless there's a sudden economic disaster which could unexpectedly arise to make price deep so bad.

Absolutely with how much interesting institutions and governments are quite increasing in Bitcoin adoption since the ETF approved Bitcoin spot, market price has seemly to be  prove false breakout when volatilities is signaling market falls because, investors now buys Bitcoin on the regular basis while whalers with their aggressive purchasing of Bitcoins has also been showing strong edge on the equilibrium consolidating price whereas, volatilities does not experience too weak during bearish phase like the past events when market capitulation spikes lack of confidence amongst investors and traders.

[AbuBhakar]

There might be a less deep in the upcoming bear market than it was in the previous year. After considering the too many involvement (interest) of so many companies into Bitcoin, even the government too showing interest to have Bitcoin reserve, and more massive adoption that is forthcoming, I have to think that the bear market won't look like the past season unless there's a sudden economic disaster which could unexpectedly arise to make price deep so bad.

Absolutely with how much interesting institutions and governments are quite increasing in Bitcoin adoption since the ETF approved Bitcoin spot, market price has seemly to be  prove false breakout when volatilities is signaling market falls because, investors now buys Bitcoin on the regular basis while whalers with their aggressive purchasing of Bitcoins has also been showing strong edge on the equilibrium consolidating price whereas, volatilities does not experience too weak during bearish phase like the past events when market capitulation spikes lack of confidence amongst investors and traders.

This institutional trader can be a double edge sword since a sell-off from one of this big holders will surely create panic on a bear market.

However, my opinion is more on they will not let their holdings collapse just for the sake exiting the market on bear market. There’s a chance that other institutional trader will add more holdings and other country might scoop a cheap Bitcoin for their reserve.

[ultrloa]

There might be a less deep in the upcoming bear market than it was in the previous year. After considering the too many involvement (interest) of so many companies into Bitcoin, even the government too showing interest to have Bitcoin reserve, and more massive adoption that is forthcoming, I have to think that the bear market won't look like the past season unless there's a sudden economic disaster which could unexpectedly arise to make price deep so bad.

Absolutely with how much interesting institutions and governments are quite increasing in Bitcoin adoption since the ETF approved Bitcoin spot, market price has seemly to be  prove false breakout when volatilities is signaling market falls because, investors now buys Bitcoin on the regular basis while whalers with their aggressive purchasing of Bitcoins has also been showing strong edge on the equilibrium consolidating price whereas, volatilities does not experience too weak during bearish phase like the past events when market capitulation spikes lack of confidence amongst investors and traders.

This institutional trader can be a double edge sword since a sell-off from one of this big holders will surely create panic on a bear market.

However, my opinion is more on they will not let their holdings collapse just for the sake exiting the market on bear market. There’s a chance that other institutional trader will add more holdings and other country might scoop a cheap Bitcoin for their reserve.

They provably won't exit in this way since its like they a doing suicide if they sell at lose. Only those people do this actions are small time traders and we don't see any big institutions do massive sell offs.

What provably going to happen is they are the one will catch those dips and provably they take advantage to accumulate Bitcoin when market is dumping. As usual for sure we will see this bad market pressure will end up soon and Bitcoin will start to recover.

But it seems that there are lots of article still pointing out that we might still have a great season next year despite of those challenges we experience this days https://hodlfm.com/bitcoin/bitcoin-price-prediction-2026/

[DPHOR]

To me as long as the market is still above 100k then this may not be the beginning of the bear market because already as we know during month of December, somewhere around 3rd week of December, like closing of Q4 there is always a sharp price increase which would boost the market a bit higher than expected. This , during that period we can say that is holiday/ festive moment and many people have closed from their various works, business or most of them might taken leave and focusing on their trading when there is high activity within the space it also pushes price higher than expected.

[d5000]

They provably won't exit in this way since its like they a doing suicide if they sell at lose. Only those people do this actions are small time traders and we don't see any big institutions do massive sell offs.

Some of the early ETF investors might have bought already in the 38-50k area at the beginning of the year 2024, or in the 50-73k area we saw during most of the remainder of 2024. So they have still plenty of margin to sell with a profit even if Bitcoin dumps significantly below 100,000. Of course, some of them have already sold, the question is how many. Let's look at the inflow/outflow chart:


Source: https://www.coinglass.com/bitcoin-etf

I think there is a good chance that of the 2024 investors there is still a part on board, and most of them invested far below 100,000 USD.

Anyway they will not take the decision lightly. And there are indeed significant inflows still in the +100,000 phase. And ETF maintainance costs are probably also a factor to consider.

I believe they will largely sell and buy approximately in the same weeks like retailers (as shown in that chart), but with a difference: they will react slower, and thus not deepen existing dips that much more.

But it seems that there are lots of article still pointing out that we might still have a great season next year despite of those challenges we experience this days https://hodlfm.com/bitcoin/bitcoin-price-prediction-2026/

Interesting. They base their prediction mainly on the expected profits in the post-halving period. It's surprising for me though that they expect the cycle peak in January 2026 and not 1-2 months earlier. So unfortunately I have to disagree with this prediction.

My expectation is however that the bull market could continue in 2026 if the year end dip (which may have already started) is weaker than expected and sentiment turns positive again. That may be the end of the 4 year cycles, and we may be shifting towards cycles based on real adoption.