Liquidity Behind Bitcoin Shows Early Signs of Recovery

[Victoria01]

On-chain liquidity indicators for BTC$BTC are showing the first signs of recovery, according to data from Swissblock Bitcoin Vector Lite.

Historically, shifts in liquidity, the blue leading signal on the chart - tend to precede price movements by 10–14 days. After weeks of capital outflows and tight liquidity conditions, this uptick could mark the beginning of a reversal phase.

At the time of analysis, BTC trades around $103.5K, with market participants watching closely for confirmation.

If liquidity continues to expand, it may trigger the next leg of price recovery - just as it did in mid-2024 and early 2025.

[flapduck]

Most likely we're going lower. There's a very big VPVR node at around $95k for BTC. Also there's a CME gap at around $92k if I'm not mistaken.

[Mpamaegbu]

After weeks of capital outflows and tight liquidity conditions, this uptick could mark the beginning of a reversal phase.

Except anyone invested more than what they can afford to lose (which is wrong), there's no need getting unnecessarily worried over what Bitcoin price is doing right now. I like to think of Bitcoin as that investment that never dies, no matter how wrecked it seems. Yes, and that's because it always bounces back to life. Those who panicked and sold off will feel the pain of selling off too early by the time price rallies up again. Bitcoin isn't a shortcut to riches. It's an investment for a long term hodl.

[joniboini]

I think it's fine to discuss technical analysis, even though we know some people gamble too much, which is why they panic easily. It isn't like those who apply risk management properly don't want to look for opportunities to re-enter or exit the market if they know another pump/dump is coming. In this thread alone, we have two conclusions from different angles already.

Anyway, I'm also preparing for another dump. Would be happy if I'm wrong and somehow we make another ATH this month.

[JeffBrad12]

Seems to be the case indeed, i'm thinking of recovery to 108k in next 3 weeks. The market can't just become bearish forever and we've been through pretty bearish week despite the positive news.
TA wise price bounced back from resistance and right now on the way of recovery. I'm still confident on my bitcoin bags.

[adaseb]

There are hundreds of indicators that point to bitcoin going up and hundreds of indicators that point to bitcoin going down. Same with many stocks. Sometimes these indicators work and sometimes they dont.
This is why you can't really use technical indicators and make it as a trader.

You take a trade and try and keep a tight stop and try and get the most you can from the trade, dont sell early. Did bitcoin bottom? Its possible because the $100K is an important technical indicator but from my experience I don't think its that easy. I think in a few days if we get a break below $100K again and we get a failed low and a stop hunt then its possible we bottomed and we might head higher from here. However the stock market looks toppy with the government shutdown and AI bubble.

[fullfitlarry]

There are hundreds of indicators that point to bitcoin going up and hundreds of indicators that point to bitcoin going down. Same with many stocks. Sometimes these indicators work and sometimes they dont.
This is why you can't really use technical indicators and make it as a trader.

You take a trade and try and keep a tight stop and try and get the most you can from the trade, dont sell early. Did bitcoin bottom? Its possible because the $100K is an important technical indicator but from my experience I don't think its that easy. I think in a few days if we get a break below $100K again and we get a failed low and a stop hunt then its possible we bottomed and we might head higher from here. However the stock market looks toppy with the government shutdown and AI bubble.

For now it looks like we have bottomed already. And if that is true then we are on the way to recovery in the next couple of weeks. And couple that with some good news then perhaps we might another ATH.

On the other hand, lots of noises, tariffs, geo-political events that might really be affecting investors perspective on investing again. But where they would put their money? stocks? Bitcoin at least they will be safe.

[Lanatsa]

There are hundreds of indicators that point to bitcoin going up and hundreds of indicators that point to bitcoin going down. Same with many stocks. Sometimes these indicators work and sometimes they dont.
This is why you can't really use technical indicators and make it as a trader.

You take a trade and try and keep a tight stop and try and get the most you can from the trade, dont sell early. Did bitcoin bottom? Its possible because the $100K is an important technical indicator but from my experience I don't think its that easy. I think in a few days if we get a break below $100K again and we get a failed low and a stop hunt then its possible we bottomed and we might head higher from here. However the stock market looks toppy with the government shutdown and AI bubble.

Technical indicators are just tools not answers they can point you in both directions depending on how you read them and what time frame you use that’s why traders who rely only on charts often get trapped in false signals and overanalyze every candle bitcoin especially moves in ways that can break almost any pattern you think you’ve figured out because it’s driven by so many layers of psychology sentiment and macro influence.
The $100k zone does look like a critical psychological and technical level it’s the kind of number that attracts both fear and opportunity if we get that quick dip below it followed by a strong reversal that could mark a true bottom because it would shake out the weak hands before a move higher that’s the stop hunt phase you mentioned but calling a bottom is always dangerous since the market can stay irrational longer than traders can stay patient.

Right now it’s better to keep positions small and stops tight if you’re trading and not investing because the volatility around political tension and tech market instability could spill into crypto the correlation between stocks and bitcoin has been creeping back up so a downturn in equities could drag the crypto market for a while this is why it’s smart to stay flexible rather than married to a bias trade the reaction not the prediction and you’ll survive longer in these uncertain setups.

[bhadz]

And it also shows that bitcoin is oversold if that's the sign that they see. We cannot change the fact of what its current price is showing us because it's down and people are panicking from what they see. The more liquidity that it shows, anyone can think of it as a sign of recovery but the reality is it means more selling is being done than buying. And with all of the signs that everyone or an institution see for Bitcoin, we have learned it for so long that it is unpredictable at all times and sometimes none of them are correct. Although it's good to read insights from some institutions or organizations that are monitoring the market.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I don't know if the source on which the OP is based is an article like this one:

https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/11-06-2025-bitcoin-liquidity-shows-signs-of-recovery-analyst-says-32021715250401

If it were true, we would see it in about two weeks, but I don't trust these kinds of articles very much. Where is the liquidity in the US with the government shutdown? All I hear is the opposite. Besides, I don't think it's a rule that is always 100% true. Maybe liquidity will return once FUD has set in, and it will take longer to recover.

[Donneski]

Liquidity is one of those things we usually do not pay much attention to until it starts showing up in the price action.
This small recovery actually feels like early signs of money quietly finding its way back into the market maybe from those who sat out during the outflows. That could also explain why Bitcoin has been holding steady around the $103K mark lately.

If this continues and the on-chain data keeps improving, I won’t be surprised to see momentum build up again just like we saw in those previous reversal phases.

 That said, I’m keeping an eye on exchange reserves and open interest just to be sure the move has real backing.

[tread93]

Seems to be the case indeed, i'm thinking of recovery to 108k in next 3 weeks. The market can't just become bearish forever and we've been through pretty bearish week despite the positive news.
TA wise price bounced back from resistance and right now on the way of recovery. I'm still confident on my bitcoin bags.

I am still confident too that BTC will rise back to the 120k levels here soon towards the end of the month or even mid month in December. So I guess we will all just have to wait and see, in the meantime keep stacking SATS!!! Great time to buy some more sats guys.

[coolcoinz]

I feel like it doesn't really matter to people who aren't currently trading BTC, and that's the majority. Bitcoin will either go up from here in the next 2 months, or it will briefly dump towards 90k and then bounce back and continue its growth.

It really has nothing to do with bitcoin but the greater macro situation. For instance, the chances of us going lower are greater when US government shutdown continues. It's also greater if the FED doesn't cut in December, or cuts less than expected.

Just look at the previous month. We crashed because Trump tweeted about tariffs when other markets weren't trading, so everybody dumped bitcoin. The ne crashed because Powell said December cuts aren't decided yet. These people are manipulating the markets and we can't really predict what will happen.

[STT]

Easiest way to measure a recovery is by the momentum of its attempts higher, we can guess and attempt to buy the bottom price for best % gains but its the most likely strategy to fail vs some methods far more reliable.

Bitcoin forming a potential double bottom pattern at $100K support

Confirmed with a clean break above $104,000

Just read that brief idea and I got no doubt buyers will attempt but I would place the high required as above 105k.  When it achieves that mark it wont be complete or useful as a build until the 105k high becomes support, then you have a very likely move higher.  I go for that price because the weekly average is declining and thats where it is, ideally we also see multiple measures moving higher not only just pass them for a moment.

[Minor Miner]

For now it looks like we have bottomed already. And if that is true then we are on the way to recovery in the next couple of weeks. And couple that with some good news then perhaps we might another ATH.

There is no certainty that we have bottomed out and will recover from now. The market still seems very unstable, and I even doubt the possibility of Bitcoin recovering to its previous ATH, let alone reaching a new ATH at this point.
Honestly, expecting bitcoin to hit a new ATH is inappropriate in the current market situation.

On the other hand, lots of noises, tariffs, geo-political events that might really be affecting investors perspective on investing again. But where they would put their money? stocks? Bitcoin at least they will be safe.

In an economy in crisis, and full of geopolitical instability. Most investors often look for safe assets like gold and ignore speculative investments like bitcoin and stocks. That could also be why bitcoin and stocks have stagnated while gold has rallied significantly in recent weeks.

[adaseb]

This is similar to SOFR I guess. For those that don't know its that overnight interest rate that banks charge. So when the figure goes down, it means there is more liquidity in the banking lending system and less liquidity in the market. Basically money sitting around doing nothing.

The opposite is when the figure goes up, means that more money is put into the markets. If you plot this figure for the last 3-4 times or so you will see that its fairly reliable at picking bottoms and tops, however there just isnt enough data for Bitcoin moves because bitcoin hasnt been around as long as the stock market.

[btc_angela]

Seems to be the case indeed, i'm thinking of recovery to 108k in next 3 weeks. The market can't just become bearish forever and we've been through pretty bearish week despite the positive news.
TA wise price bounced back from resistance and right now on the way of recovery. I'm still confident on my bitcoin bags.

I am still confident too that BTC will rise back to the 120k levels here soon towards the end of the month or even mid month in December. So I guess we will all just have to wait and see, in the meantime keep stacking SATS!!! Great time to buy some more sats guys.

Most of us wanting to see that Bitcoin recovery, so far though it might be a long journey again to $120k. We need more hype in the market, more investors to let their money enter the market again to fuel it to even a new all time high.

Stacking sats is the key, we should really not forget about this even if the market is down. The problem with some of the investors is that when the price goes down, they are afraid to invest because they see their portfolio going down and they feel nervous about it.

[michellee]

After what happens to Bitcoin in these few weeks, I guess we will see another dip especially if much bad news comes. Bitcoin seems to push to a lower price because of news or other things that we don't know. But I hope I am wrong.

I see the price is up but then down again. This happens many times but the chance to go lower is still there. So I say to myself to prepare for anything including the bad things that may happen. But I don't panic if the price is down deeper because I've met this many times before.

[STT]

safe assets like gold

Gold is also a commodity, its more obvious with silver and other metals but it applies to gold still.  Gold being a commodity means it can drop 40% or some extreme move as people move to cash and repay positions.
  I'm not a commodity trader but I think that's correct, it would be more acknowledged if we were refering to oil but its true of all commodities to some extent.  Also look how much its risen, of course it can fall back a considerable amount though I would buy it at that point quite likely.

Next important level for BTC in recovery now that main markets are more positive and there is the wider idea of positivity, is nearby at 107k.   107k is fairly clear in significance because it shows up for closing daily lows for Sept and late August; it would show up even in a monthly view.  There'll be some volume there and also its a Fibonacci level for the wider move.