KRACH PREDICTIONS - NFL, Soccer, MMA - RECORD 4-0-1

[krach]

KRACH PREDICITONS
Here I am going to post my picks.
Mostly in NFL, European Football and MMA.
I will explain the reasoning behind the picks, and what odds I think have value.
A record will be kept of all picks.
Follow or fade, up to you.

German Bundesliga
Bremen vs. Wolfsburg
Under 3 1.89 Asian Handicap

Both teams have some injury issues, but Bremen's defense has some holes to fill. Weiser, Wöber, Agu and possibly Friedl are all unavailable. Wolfsburg also has some injury issues, especially in defense (Mæhle, Fischer). That being said Wolfsburg has had trouble scoring lately failing to score in 2 of the last 5 games. Wolfsburg is also under pressure, and the team might make some major changes after this game. The owners are not happy: https://www.welt.de/regionales/niedersachsen/article690a1d12154e6f61444c5642/krise-beim-vfl-wolfsburg-aufsichtsrat-denkt-an-konsequenzen.html

I have created a model and my odds for under 2.5 is 1.98 and the book is offering 2.38, let's take the under 3 and get a push if there are three goals.


Let me know what you think and if you follow or fade.

[krach]

First pick was a PUSH  

0-0-1 so far


LET'S GO


Im going with Monday Night Football over in the NFL and im picking Philly to win vs. Green Bay. I don't have any complex reasons, no so called expert take. Philly is going to run the ball, they are going to tush push, they are going to do what they need to do to get the win. It will be annoying and I might consider the under as well. I do not think this will be a nice game to watch unless you like defense short runs.

PICK
Philadelphia  1.96

WIN

[krach]

Interesting picks! I’ve noticed KRACH-style systems work better for long-term league performance rather than single games, where variance is huge. In sports like MMA, unpredictable finishes can ruin even the best model’s edge.

Do you track your prediction accuracy over time or just use it for fun analysis?

Long term league performance is based off of single games. In MMA or football (soccer) there can be lots of variance, a random goal or KO. Still that being said you can still use models as at least one viewpoint on the sports event.

I am tracking my predictions here live in front of everyone, let's see where this goes.

[krach]

Current Record
1win 0loss 1push



In NFL Thursday Night action, the Jets play the Patriots. The Jets are a horrible team; they have struggled in every way. That being said, this is a divisional rival and this is a prime-time game. THIS IS THE JETS SUPER BOWL. Throw all the stats out the window, who cares? The Jets are getting 13 points. THIRTEEN points, that is a lot, let's buy another point and make it two TDs. The Jets keep this closer than everyone thinks. Tonight is the night be a contrarian.

JETS +14 1.76

[krach]

Going to go with another contrarian pick this week in the NFL.

They face Kansas City who is coming off a bye week. This is normally when KC shines and wins. Lots of people are saying this a must win for KC if they are going to make it to the playoffs. On paper a lot is there in their favor, but I think this time around, Denver at home gets it done, UGLY again. Again with this pick no amazing stats and simulations. The market has come in in favor of KC and moved the line up from -3 to -4, so over a FG win for KC. The total also has been bought up to 45 from 44, for a lean I would hit the under 45 as well. Even though Bo the QB for Denver has not been making some of the best decisions, he still has the skills to get it done. The main thing is that Denvers defense is killing it. Mahones is going to be running, scrambling all over the place. Mahones is going to be hit, Mahones is going to presured, and he will be sacked. This is going to be an ugly game and Denver will find a way to win.


DENVER +4 1.90

[krach]

Coming off another NFL win time for another pick. This time for Thursday Night Football.
Bills vs. Texans


This game could have a direct impact on who gets to the playoffs. Both teams are in the running but need a win here. A loss here might be enough to not make the playoffs for each team. That being said Im not totaly convinced of either the Bills or the Texans offense. Sure the Bills have Josh Allen who might be the best QB in the NFL. Still there have been moments where he tries to get things done alone and things are not firing as a team. The Texans are going to bring the heat. The Texans defense has given up the fewest points in the NFL period! I think this is what makes the difference. Will Texas win? Im not going that far, but I do like them to cover, and yes I will buy a few points.

Texas +7 1.70

[krach]

Texas won the game.

Another pick won that brings it to 4-0-1. I can't get overconfident here but Im on a good run.

Stay tuned for some more picks this weekend...