Realistic solo mining hash rate?

[Squiggle]

Just wondering what is a realistic hash rate to solo mine? I know it’s a lottery & I am interested to know everyone’s thought on what the lowest hash rate would be to realistically be in with a good chance of solo mining a block.

[noorman0]

Realistic perspectives vary from person to person, depending on the budget ceiling. The higher the number, the more reasonable the expectation of getting 1 block per day/month/year. Try simulating the estimated hash power you can generate with its probability at https://solochance.com

If you want to know the probability per month/year, simply divide the probability per day by the average number of blocks mined during that period.

[Squiggle]

Yeah I have checked out the probability on that site, but it still doesn’t give a realistic number. I’ve seen people actually mine a block with as low as 50-100TH/s, but in a lottery someone with 5TH/s can mine a block in theory. I’m not trying to mine a block a week, once a year would be a comfortable income, I’m just trying to figure out a realistic hash rate for an above average chance once a year in the lottery.

[noorman0]

Yeah I have checked out the probability on that site, but it still doesn’t give a realistic number. I’ve seen people actually mine a block with as low as 50-100TH/s,

In reality, 1:100,000 solo miners could be stuck for thousands of years without a single block mined. Well, that's up to you, so like I said a realistic perspective is relative to each person.

-snip-
but in a lottery someone with 5TH/s can mine a block in theory.

That's a cheap theory for now; you don't need expert advice. Just come to me.

-snip-
I’m not trying to mine a block a week, once a year would be a comfortable income, I’m just trying to figure out a realistic hash rate for an above average chance once a year in the lottery.

The basic formula: p(block) = your_hashrate/network_hashrate
Rough calculation (cmiiw): Take the average of the highest hashrate of 1.2 ZH > 600,000 TH/s and the average number of blocks mined per year > (144*365)
Required_hasrate = network_hashrate / 52,560 = 11.41 Phash
Then, enter 11.42 into the simulation and set the units to Petahash. Now you have 1 lottery ticket out of 723 bettors every day (~50% probability of a block being mined by you in a year).

[nc50lc]

-snip- but in a lottery someone with 5TH/s can mine a block in theory.

And someone did with even lower hashate of 3.3TH just this year, link to -ck's post: /index.php?topic=5237323.msg65154156#msg65154156
But that doesn't guarantee that others will mine a block with the same hashrate.

Yeah I have checked out the probability on that site, but it still doesn’t give a realistic number.

That website is calculating the "probability" quite accurately since it's calculated from the network's mining data through API (based from the changelog, tool's not open-source).
But the "realistic" result that you're looking for isn't something that any tool can offer since the concept of luck can't always be based from statistics.
So take the results as "in average".

[satscraper]

Just wondering what is a realistic hash rate to solo mine? I know it’s a lottery & I am interested to know everyone’s thought on what the lowest hash rate would be to realistically be in with a good chance of solo mining a block.

If you are inclined to solo mining, consider it as the source of home heating, especially during the winter season, rather than the potential source of BTC. If you're extremely lucky, the mined block might come as the pleasant and exciting surprise. I have two ^{Avalon Mini 3 For Home} miners (with the nominal 37.5 TH/sec each) mining in pool. The daily income just about covers the electricity they consume, but I use them primarily for heating the rooms.

[odolvlobo]

Just wondering what is a realistic hash rate to solo mine? I know it’s a lottery & I am interested to know everyone’s thought on what the lowest hash rate would be to realistically be in with a good chance of solo mining a block.

In simplest terms. the realistic hash rate depends on how much money you are willing to lose at your current cost of electricity. The formula is straightforward:

Code:

Hash rate in TH = M / C / (E * 0.00000027778) / 31557600

M is how much money you are willing to lose in a year.
C is the cost of electricity per kWh
E is the efficiency of the miner in joules/TH
0.00000027778 kWh in a joule
31557600 seconds in a year


This analysis assumes that you are not going to mine at a profit and that your hash rate will not be high enough to have a realistic chance of finding a block.

For example, if you are willing to lose $1000 per year at a cost of $0.10/kWh using a miner with an efficiency of 17.5 j/TH, then your hash rate should be 1000 / 0.10 / (17.5 * 0.00000027778)  / 31557600 = 65 TH/s. At 65 TH/s, you will find one block in every 17 million blocks, or 322 years.

I’m just trying to figure out a realistic hash rate for an above average chance once a year in the lottery.

Oh, that's a different calculation. In simplified terms,

Code:

your hash rate = Network hash rate / 52596

52596 is the approximate number of blocks mined in a year. You want to mine one of them so you just divide.

Current hash rate is about 1100000000 TH/s, so your hash rate must be 1100000000 / 52596 = 21000 TH/s to average 1 block per year.

[Squiggle]

Thanks everyone, all those answers are great & has given me the exact data I was looking for. Think I’ll stick with the house heating lottery for now, spending the money to invest in a 21PH/s system might be something worth looking into if I do hit a block. Just knowing a block can be mined with as low as 3.3TH/s makes the home heating lottery a little more exciting, lol.