Realistic solo mining hash rate?

[Squiggle]

Just wondering what is a realistic hash rate to solo mine? I know it’s a lottery & I am interested to know everyone’s thought on what the lowest hash rate would be to realistically be in with a good chance of solo mining a block.

[noorman0]

Realistic perspectives vary from person to person, depending on the budget ceiling. The higher the number, the more reasonable the expectation of getting 1 block per day/month/year. Try simulating the estimated hash power you can generate with its probability at https://solochance.com

If you want to know the probability per month/year, simply divide the probability per day by the average number of blocks mined during that period.

[Squiggle]

Yeah I have checked out the probability on that site, but it still doesn’t give a realistic number. I’ve seen people actually mine a block with as low as 50-100TH/s, but in a lottery someone with 5TH/s can mine a block in theory. I’m not trying to mine a block a week, once a year would be a comfortable income, I’m just trying to figure out a realistic hash rate for an above average chance once a year in the lottery.

[noorman0]

Yeah I have checked out the probability on that site, but it still doesn’t give a realistic number. I’ve seen people actually mine a block with as low as 50-100TH/s,

In reality, 1:100,000 solo miners could be stuck for thousands of years without a single block mined. Well, that's up to you, so like I said a realistic perspective is relative to each person.

-snip-
but in a lottery someone with 5TH/s can mine a block in theory.

That's a cheap theory for now; you don't need expert advice. Just come to me.

-snip-
I’m not trying to mine a block a week, once a year would be a comfortable income, I’m just trying to figure out a realistic hash rate for an above average chance once a year in the lottery.

The basic formula: p(block) = your_hashrate/network_hashrate
Rough calculation (cmiiw): Take the average of the highest hashrate of 1.2 ZH > 600,000 TH/s and the average number of blocks mined per year > (144*365)
Required_hasrate = network_hashrate / 52,560 = 11.41 Phash
Then, enter 11.42 into the simulation and set the units to Petahash. Now you have 1 lottery ticket out of 723 bettors every day (~50% probability of a block being mined by you in a year).

[nc50lc]

-snip- but in a lottery someone with 5TH/s can mine a block in theory.

And someone did with even lower hashate of 3.3TH just this year, link to -ck's post: /index.php?topic=5237323.msg65154156#msg65154156
But that doesn't guarantee that others will mine a block with the same hashrate.

Yeah I have checked out the probability on that site, but it still doesn’t give a realistic number.

That website is calculating the "probability" quite accurately since it's calculated from the network's mining data through API (based from the changelog, tool's not open-source).
But the "realistic" result that you're looking for isn't something that any tool can offer since the concept of luck can't always be based from statistics.
So take the results as "in average".

[satscraper]

Just wondering what is a realistic hash rate to solo mine? I know it’s a lottery & I am interested to know everyone’s thought on what the lowest hash rate would be to realistically be in with a good chance of solo mining a block.

If you are inclined to solo mining, consider it as the source of home heating, especially during the winter season, rather than the potential source of BTC. If you're extremely lucky, the mined block might come as the pleasant and exciting surprise. I have two ^{Avalon Mini 3 For Home} miners (with the nominal 37.5 TH/sec each) mining in pool. The daily income just about covers the electricity they consume, but I use them primarily for heating the rooms.

[odolvlobo]

Just wondering what is a realistic hash rate to solo mine? I know it’s a lottery & I am interested to know everyone’s thought on what the lowest hash rate would be to realistically be in with a good chance of solo mining a block.

In simplest terms. the realistic hash rate depends on how much money you are willing to lose at your current cost of electricity. The formula is straightforward:

Code:

Hash rate in TH = M / C / (E * 0.00000027778) / 31557600

M is how much money you are willing to lose in a year.
C is the cost of electricity per kWh
E is the efficiency of the miner in joules/TH
0.00000027778 kWh in a joule
31557600 seconds in a year


This analysis assumes that you are not going to mine at a profit and that your hash rate will not be high enough to have a realistic chance of finding a block.

For example, if you are willing to lose $1000 per year at a cost of $0.10/kWh using a miner with an efficiency of 17.5 j/TH, then your hash rate should be 1000 / 0.10 / (17.5 * 0.00000027778)  / 31557600 = 65 TH/s. At 65 TH/s, you will find one block in every 17 million blocks, or 322 years.

I’m just trying to figure out a realistic hash rate for an above average chance once a year in the lottery.

Oh, that's a different calculation. In simplified terms,

Code:

your hash rate = Network hash rate / 52596

52596 is the approximate number of blocks mined in a year. You want to mine one of them so you just divide.

Current hash rate is about 1100000000 TH/s, so your hash rate must be 1100000000 / 52596 = 21000 TH/s to average 1 block per year.

[Squiggle]

Thanks everyone, all those answers are great & has given me the exact data I was looking for. Think I’ll stick with the house heating lottery for now, spending the money to invest in a 21PH/s system might be something worth looking into if I do hit a block. Just knowing a block can be mined with as low as 3.3TH/s makes the home heating lottery a little more exciting, lol.

[odolvlobo]

Thanks everyone, all those answers are great & has given me the exact data I was looking for. Think I’ll stick with the house heating lottery for now, spending the money to invest in a 21PH/s system might be something worth looking into if I do hit a block.

Just don't forget the $300k - $600k per year in electricity costs.

... Just knowing a block can be mined with as low as 3.3TH/s makes the home heating lottery a little more exciting, lol.

[Outhue]

Just wondering what is a realistic hash rate to solo mine? I know it’s a lottery & I am interested to know everyone’s thought on what the lowest hash rate would be to realistically be in with a good chance of solo mining a block.

Grab a Hexahash then, because this is the most realistic way to solve a bitcoin block, faster and guaranteed because it takes only 8 days to solve a block on your own. Your chances of solving blocks will be 1 in a 1116  chances every blessed day.

If you are looking for the lowest hashrate like 200TH it will take you 106years to solve a block, unless you get lucky, if this is what you want you need to understand that you might never solve a single block ever. If you still want to do this make sure you are not going to pay for electricity.

This is a form of gambling and better to not expect anything to happen, the higher your hash rate the more your chances of solving a block will keep increasing. With double terahash of 200, meaning 400TH will cut the 106years into half, that's 56years to solve a block instead of 106years.

[Squiggle]

Grab a Hexahash then, because this is the most realistic way to solve a bitcoin block, faster and guaranteed because it takes only 8 days to solve a block on your own. Your chances of solving blocks will be 1 in a 1116  chances every blessed day.

What’s a Hexahash?

[NotFuzzyWarm]

Grab a Hexahash then, because this is the most realistic way to solve a bitcoin block, faster and guaranteed because it takes only 8 days to solve a block on your own. Your chances of solving blocks will be 1 in a 1116  chances every blessed day.

What’s a Hexahash?

Whatever it is (Google turns up nothing) it sure as hell is NOT a BTC miner. Averaging 1 BTC block/8 days requires at least 1 EHs (1000 PHs).

[stompix]

Grab a Hexahash then, because this is the most realistic way to solve a bitcoin block, faster and guaranteed because it takes only 8 days to solve a block on your own. Your chances of solving blocks will be 1 in a 1116  chances every blessed day.

What’s a Hexahash?

Whatever it is (Google turns up nothing) it sure as hell is NOT a BTC miner. Averaging 1 BTC block/8 days requires at least 1 EHs (1000 PHs).

That's what he probably meant, an exahash(of hashrate) not a hexahash, although my autocorrect isn't getting triggered on any of those!

[philipma1957]

Just wondering what is a realistic hash rate to solo mine? I know it’s a lottery & I am interested to know everyone’s thought on what the lowest hash rate would be to realistically be in with a good chance of solo mining a block.

100th should make about 4 bucks in a day so 80000 days for a block over 200 years

1000th should make about 40 bucks in a day so 8000 days for a block over 20 years

10000th should make about 400 bucks in a day so 800 days for a block over 2 years

[BlackHatCoiner]

Anything above zero? Here's the way I see it: a Bitaxe Gamma 601 costs around $110 on Amazon; it hashes 1 TH/s and burns around 17 watt, which comes at around $3 per month on an average of $0.20 per kWh. This is something around one billionth of the total hashrate.

I don't really care how probable it is. I know for a fact that I can live a hundred lives, and it will still probably not have found a block. However, there's a miniscule probability that can change my life. Whether I have those $110 or not, it won't change my life, but there's a tiny chance that without the $110, my life changes forever. So why not get at least one Bitaxe 601?

Apply the same reasoning for as many Bitaxes as you can afford without sensing economic difference to your life.

[odolvlobo]

Anything above zero? Here's the way I see it: a Bitaxe Gamma 601 costs around $110 on Amazon; it hashes 1 TH/s and burns around 17 watt, which comes at around $3 per month on an average of $0.20 per kWh. This is something around one billionth of the total hashrate.

I don't really care how probable it is. I know for a fact that I can live a hundred lives, and it will still probably not have found a block. However, there's a miniscule probability that can change my life. Whether I have those $110 or not, it won't change my life, but there's a tiny chance that without the $110, my life changes forever. So why not get at least one Bitaxe 601?

I suggest that you buy lottery tickets instead.

Buying $110 + $3/month in lottery tickets is much more likely to change your life than spending that amount on mining.

[BlackHatCoiner]

Buying $110 + $3/month in lottery tickets is much more likely to change your life than spending that amount on mining.

With $110 + $3/month, you buy something around one lottery ticket once a month in real life, but with the same money you buy a lottery ticket every day on bitcoin.

Edit:

Not only is the likelihood of winning the lottery many times greater than finding a block, but the prizes are lot more than 3 BTC. If you want to throw away small amounts of money for a negligible chance of winning a big amount of money, the lottery is the better option.

If you play once, then sure, the lottery has better ratio of chance to win and reward. But, it's a lot more expensive over the long term to play lottery every day for the rest of your life, in comparison with a bitcoin miner. A bitcoin miner might have worse ratio, but it's a lot cheaper to play forever.

[philipma1957]

Buying $110 + $3/month in lottery tickets is much more likely to change your life than spending that amount on mining.

With $110 + $3/month, you buy something around one lottery ticket once a month in real life, but with the same money you buy a lottery ticket every day on bitcoin.

Edit:

Not only is the likelihood of winning the lottery many times greater than finding a block, but the prizes are lot more than 3 BTC. If you want to throw away small amounts of money for a negligible chance of winning a big amount of money, the lottery is the better option.

If you play once, then sure, the lottery has better ratio of chance to win and reward. But, it's a lot more expensive over the long term to play lottery every day for the rest of your life, in comparison with a bitcoin miner. A bitcoin miner might have worse ratio, but it's a lot cheaper to play forever.

It earns around 11 cents in btc a day.

Put a bitaxe  at viabtc.com set the withdraw to 0.001btc and you will get 0.001 in a really long time.

It's a perfectly painless dca and hodl.

And while you are at it open a PayPal account buy $110 In btc and and $3 a month In btc

Finally buy a second bittaxe and solo mine.

The three above are affordable

[Loshi]

Just wondering what is a realistic hash rate to solo mine? I know it’s a lottery & I am interested to know everyone’s thought on what the lowest hash rate would be to realistically be in with a good chance of solo mining a block.

it can vary depending on what rig you are using or a solo mining specific miner such as a bitaxe-nerdaxe etc  those per unit only hash out 2-3TH/s a S9 can hash out from 14th/s to 25th/s over clocking. I suggest getting just one S9 and couple of bitaxe's to solo mine in your home to one address and if any of your friend's want to get in on mining ask if you can copy your setup at their place and 2x it everywhere else etc etc.

Hope this was a little helpful 

-Loshi

[BlackHatCoiner]

Put a bitaxe  at viabtc.com set the withdraw to 0.001btc and you will get 0.001 in a really long time.

Let's say I earn 100 sats a day for many years ahead, as an extremely optimistic prediction. That means I'll get 100,000 sats in 1000 days ~= 3 years. So I will have given 110 + 3*12*3 = $218 as an absolute minimum to might get 0.001 BTC in around 2029. So why not just buy 0.001 BTC today at $95 and HODL?

If you're going to gamble, at least gamble aristocratically. I'm either getting rich by stamping thermodynamic truth to the immutable ledger, or I'm just learning about the Stratum protocol. You either win, or you learn.