Do you bet against the public? let’s talk about it

[Finestream]

i know abou this so-called betting against the public strategy. I kinda get the idea behind it like when the majority is leaning one side, the line tends to move and value might appear on the other. But I’d like to hear how others here actually apply it in real betting situations.

What specific factors do you look at before deciding to fade the public? Is it the percentage of bets vs. money or sharp line movement, or some team hype?
I want to know the details on what triggers your decision before placing the bet, not just the basic “because the public is on it.”

can we share some insights here, maybe we’ll pick up new ways to spot real value plays.

[fullfitlarry]

I don't know but maybe we have seen gut feelings that the public might be wrong and let's say that this team has the potential to win like factors that can't be measure like they have a big heart and very motivated to show that they belong to the big league.

And most likely this is why some gamblers prefer to bet on the the underdog, pay is huge and again, they might have this feeling that this game might be a different outcome as others might have expected.

[Maslate]

There’s a free website where you can check the volume of bets going to a certain line or team and it’s open for everyone.

But for me, that’s not my main basis. I usually start by checking the line first and seeing if it looks like a trap.

For example, if a strong favorite should easily win by more than 10 points against a weaker team but the bookies only set the line at -5, that already makes me suspicious. It usually means the public will jump on the favorite, so I’d start looking at the other side instead.

[iBaba]

i know abou this so-called betting against the public strategy. I kinda get the idea behind it like when the majority is leaning one side, the line tends to move and value might appear on the other. But I’d like to hear how others here actually apply it in real betting situations.

What specific factors do you look at before deciding to fade the public? Is it the percentage of bets vs. money or sharp line movement, or some team hype?
I want to know the details on what triggers your decision before placing the bet, not just the basic “because the public is on it.”

can we share some insights here, maybe we’ll pick up new ways to spot real value plays.

If you ask for my opinion I will tell you straight up that this idea makes sense to me because when everyone else is betting one side, I think there is often some value to pick from the other side but I will not.just go against the public for going sake or for no reason, I will try to check properly to see what is really happening with the bets and money because I know there are sometimes when you will see that most people are betting on one team but at the same time the big money is going the other way and that alone is a good sign for you to pay attention to.

 sometimes I also pay attention to the line movements to see if the odds shift against the popular team, then it means smart bettors might just have been backing the other side and again all of these do not always work so whenever I go against the public, I will try to ensure that it is strategic and in search for a better outcome and not just for going sake.

I don't know but maybe we have seen gut feelings that the public might be wrong and let's say that this team has the potential to win like factors that can't be measure like they have a big heart and very motivated to show that they belong to the big league.

And most likely this is why some gamblers prefer to bet on the the underdog, pay is huge and again, they might have this feeling that this game might be a different outcome as others might have expected.

I think I understand what you mean. Sometimes it is not just about the stats or the data you must have gathered but just this guts feeling that the public might be wrong probably due to your personal conviction over the team's performance and your believe that they will come out better than the majority opinion of the public. It is just like betting on the underdog which is another thing that alot of people like to do even if it's occasionally.

[cryptoaddictchie]

i know abou this so-called betting against the public strategy. I kinda get the idea behind it like when the majority is leaning one side, the line tends to move and value might appear on the other. But I’d like to hear how others here actually apply it in real betting situations.

What specific factors do you look at before deciding to fade the public? Is it the percentage of bets vs. money or sharp line movement, or some team hype?
I want to know the details on what triggers your decision before placing the bet, not just the basic “because the public is on it.”

can we share some insights here, maybe we’ll pick up new ways to spot real value plays.

Yeah, fading the public isn’t about always going against the crowd. I just watch when most people bet one way, but big money or line movement goes the other. That usually means smarter bettors see something the public missed and that’s where real value often is. Its like a reverse psychology for some but not works all the time since we have some analysis for games that are accurate and we can't simply contradict that just because we wanna bet on the other sides. But sometimes it works.

[btc_angela]

i know abou this so-called betting against the public strategy. I kinda get the idea behind it like when the majority is leaning one side, the line tends to move and value might appear on the other. But I’d like to hear how others here actually apply it in real betting situations.

What specific factors do you look at before deciding to fade the public? Is it the percentage of bets vs. money or sharp line movement, or some team hype?
I want to know the details on what triggers your decision before placing the bet, not just the basic “because the public is on it.”

can we share some insights here, maybe we’ll pick up new ways to spot real value plays.

Yeah, fading the public isn’t about always going against the crowd. I just watch when most people bet one way, but big money or line movement goes the other. That usually means smarter bettors see something the public missed and that’s where real value often is. Its like a reverse psychology for some but not works all the time since we have some analysis for games that are accurate and we can't simply contradict that just because we wanna bet on the other sides. But sometimes it works.

Or there could have another model which sway them to bet on the other side. That's why it's very important to really analyze the game itself before betting on the favorite which obviously might just give you a small winnings unless you put big money, or you find value bet on the opposite side and then go against the crowd and contract it.

I usually see this kind of shifts or be betting go the underdog most likely or there could have been a practice on horse racing. Maybe there could be some horse afficionado that can confirm this as I was brought to this idea when I used to bet on horse racing. Looks for value bets on the underdog, or what they call a long shot.

[Oshosondy]

Is what do you mean is that most people are going for strong teams to win but the strong team have low odds, there are some sites that you can see the percentage of people that predict on team A to win, team B to win, or both team will draw and you can also choose which team would win on the site to be among the people that predict the outcome.

If that is what you mean, I do not go against the crowd most time because I prefer to choose the team that will likely win, but there are times that both team that are playing are strong teams and you may not know what most people will choose or the result will of little difference between team A and B.

[Sammye3]

Public opinion to some extent changes the value of odds in a given game given the fact that consecutive options has being placed over time. And betting against the public is only a game of possibility and mostly for fun, because just imagine winning against the public? That gives a different kind of thrill.

Also, before that I would check the statistics of the opposing team and analysing the possibility of that happening and not just betting blindly.
It is very much advisable not to put in all your money into this kind of bets that uncertainty overshadows certainty just to be on the safer side in a case of loss.

[Sim_card]

I don't look at what the crowd is doing before choosing the club to bet on. I do my analysis and use that to predict which club to bet on. If my prediction is against the public fine, but it it isn't doesn't make me change my mind. Sometimes, I do what my instincts tells me and bet against the public just to be different.

[aoluain]

With wildly different odds like 1.05 v 4.5 I would rarely choose to bet on the outsider.
I have never been in the situation where my analysis has contradicted the favourite.
Most people I believe are doing some analysis before betting and not just blindly
following the trend.

As the gap closes to 1.80 v 2.10 for example thats when things become more difficult
and the two teams can be seen as each having a good chance of beating each other
and so easier to come to a conclusion to bet against the favourite.

Thats how I have been looking at odds on matches.

[cryptoaddictchie]

Or there could have another model which sway them to bet on the other side. That's why it's very important to really analyze the game itself before betting on the favorite which obviously might just give you a small winnings unless you put big money, or you find value bet on the opposite side and then go against the crowd and contract it.

I usually see this kind of shifts or be betting go the underdog most likely or there could have been a practice on horse racing. Maybe there could be some horse afficionado that can confirm this as I was brought to this idea when I used to bet on horse racing. Looks for value bets on the underdog, or what they call a long shot.

That’s a fair point about finding value in the underdog, but relying too much on going against the crowd can also be misleading. Not every favorite is overhyped, and sometimes the market moves for valid reasons like injuries or form. It’s smart to look for value, but the key is solid analysis not just betting contrarian for the sake of it. Anyway I wonder if theres a logical way or model for that besides gambling on the other side.

[swogerino]

i know abou this so-called betting against the public strategy. I kinda get the idea behind it like when the majority is leaning one side, the line tends to move and value might appear on the other. But I’d like to hear how others here actually apply it in real betting situations.

What specific factors do you look at before deciding to fade the public? Is it the percentage of bets vs. money or sharp line movement, or some team hype?
I want to know the details on what triggers your decision before placing the bet, not just the basic “because the public is on it.”

can we share some insights here, maybe we’ll pick up new ways to spot real value plays.

I personally never give a damn how the lines are moving or what other people think about a specific betting event, the only times I care I follow a tipster or a tipping service, something I am not doing from 10 years or more now. I have this strong belief that if I feel the game is going how I think I place bets that way. For example yesterday I won 5 ten dollars free bets in a pool and I won 4 out of 5 from them. I played over bet in games where over is not that much expected, it is a 60 percent no and 40 percent yes yet I got the feeling that they would be over and 4 bets out of 5 were correct. So in my opinion is better to follow your instict rather what other people think.

[palle11]

I want to know the details on what triggers your decision before placing the bet, not just the basic “because the public is on it.”

can we share some insights here, maybe we’ll pick up new ways to spot real value plays.

Sometimes there are some matches that are public knowledge about their possible outcome and recently I have observed that they hardly come to that public knowledge conclusion at the end of the match, they get people surprised. I try to avoid such matches and worse of it is that, they are low odd games and I don't like low odd games to be a spoiler to my bet. It doesn't take me anything to avoid such matches. Bookmakers too can be a reason to avoid those type of matches because they are aware of the public knowledge and might be tricky with reduced odd on them. I like to stay away from matches that every bettor is going for on the same options like 1 or 2. If I insist on betting it, I will go for the numbers of goals that will be produced from them.

[justinlamode]

Betting against the public should just be simply betting on the underdogs, in simple term. If this is correct, I hardly do it unless in a game I'm convinced will go my way. For instance, Brentford played Newcastle and were given 3.0 odds to win at home and Newcastle were give small odd but I knew that Brentford was going to win that match based on the recent stats of both clubs, hence I bet on Brentford to win and I was right. This is the only way I bet against the public which is when it aligns with my analysis.