How can the real value of Bitcoin be accurately determined?

[tbterryboy]

Miners will just mine the coins and will not really be able to set a price. Yes, they can control the supply by holding the mined coins for longer period which can impact the price by a fraction but still it does not mean that they can completely control the price. Bitcoin's price similar to every other asset is determined by the demand and supply factor. The demand for bitcoins keep on rising while supply remains stagnant which makes the price fluctuate. Demand here plays a very important role.

My strategy will be the same old just to hold bitcoins no matter even if they dip further more. I will hold them for longer time so I do not care about such short dips because I will always remain bullish for long term.

[Alphakilo]

Miners will just mine the coins and will not really be able to set a price. Yes, they can control the supply by holding the mined coins for longer period which can impact the price by a fraction but still it does not mean that they can completely control the price. Bitcoin's price similar to every other asset is determined by the demand and supply factor. The demand for bitcoins keep on rising while supply remains stagnant which makes the price fluctuate. Demand here plays a very important role.

My strategy will be the same old just to hold bitcoins no matter even if they dip further more. I will hold them for longer time so I do not care about such short dips because I will always remain bullish for long term.

We share same thoughts on this, because am all in on holding for long term irrespective of whether the price dips further or rises to a new ATH. The bottom line is not to go about looking for what that might kill you. Like trying to even out your portfolio because there's a dip, you might eventually lose much more than you can afford to. Be smart and hold or diversify to include gold, because I think the price is quite more stable than Bitcoin currently.

[Emitdama]

From what I am getting here, I think bitcoin can still get to $60000 but I am not sure if we are get in bear market.

Even I think $60,000 might be possible and we might have already entered the bear season as the sell orders are rising gradually and the buy orders are not really holding the price. Maybe bears are getting stronger now and this can lead us to enter the bear season sooner than expected. I am prepared to see bitcoins going down to $60,000 but they might dip harder. I am not prepared to see them go below $50,000. If they do so, it will trigger panic and worst might come forward.

I would prefer staking on centralized exchanges but will not stake my complete portfolio. Maybe 10% of my entire holding can be used for staking while other can sit in my wallet just as a long term holding. I don't think staking is bad because it will give me some profit even in the bear run when I am not actually able to make profits just by holding my coins.

[Somto9Light]

We share same thoughts on this, because am all in on holding for long term irrespective of whether the price dips further or rises to a new ATH. The bottom line is not to go about looking for what that might kill you. Like trying to even out your portfolio because there's a dip, you might eventually lose much more than you can afford to. Be smart and hold or diversify to include gold, because I think the price is quite more stable than Bitcoin currently.

You make a good point. Holding bitcoin for the long term helps to remove a lot of emotional pressure that mostly sets in when people are attempting to outsmart the market by targeting only the dips. The reason why most investors often get wrecked along the way wasn’t really because Bitcoin failed, but because they kept on jumping in and out of the market, on an attempt to optimize their portfolio at the worst possible times in the market.

[bigimann]

...I don't remember exactly who suggested equating it to the cost of mining, but this figure has always served as the final price limit from which a long-term upward trend has begun since then.

Of course, the cost of mining is the starting point for determining the price of bitcoin, but... But in my opinion, the cost of bitcoin is equal to the price for which market participants are willing to sell and buy it.

Yes I agree with you, just want to build on what you said.

In economics, the price of anything is determinant on demand and supply. When the demand is higher, prices goes up, and when the supply is higher, prices goes down. In the case of Bitcoin, it is over demanded and that is what take it to where it is now in terms of price and stability.

Peace out ✌️

[Alpen]

The indicator factors in the varying cost of mining Bitcoin, which is why its 'red zone' is so wide. Essentially, you can gradually start accumulating BTC even right now

I don't think the red zone reflects variations in mining costs, as there was a brutal base price increase in mid-2024, from under ~$30k to ~$59k. I couldn't find any relevant mining news during that period to explain why. Links to charts would be helpful.

That's because of the Bitcoin Halving event that happens every four years, where the block reward is cut in half. The last one was in April 2024. That's why there was such a sharp jump in the cost of mining BTC!

And here's the link to the indicator, just as you requested:https://www.tradingview.com/script/ug1V9P1U-Bitcoin-Production-Cost/

[Alpen]

For Bitcoin, that fair value is the cost of mining.

And what price will bitcoin have, according to your calculation methodology, when the last bitcoin will be mined and, accordingly, it will be impossible to calculate the cost of bitcoin mining. What method will then be used to calculate the price of BTC?

The last Bitcoin will be mined in about a hundred years. None of us will be alive by then.

[Alpen]

You are confusing between value and price.
Value and price are different, value is more important than price even sometimes price can be higher than value. If Bitcoin does not have good value, its price will fall to zero with time, but in fact Bitcoin price has been growing exponentially and solidly since 2009. It's because of Bitcoin value that is good and has never stopped increasing over time.

You're mixing up different markets here. Explain the value of memecoins to me? Bitcoin has essentially become a meme itself. Things don't operate the same way in the crypto market as they do in other markets.

[Cryptohygenic]

What is your strategy?

From what I am getting here, I think bitcoin can still get to $60000 but I am not sure if we are get in bear market.

It's hard to hear that, isn't it? But in previous crypto winters, losses have been greater than 80%. I was prepared for such a scenario, however, and I have the funds to average out my position, which I will start doing gradually below $80k. I have staked my available BTC coins on the Cryptomus exchange for the duration of the crypto winter.

What is your strategy?

Staking coins on exchanges is not advisable for me because I will prefer to hold the coins by myself on a noncustodial wallet. I will prefer to just nit to stake instead.

What you are saying is possible if it is confirmed that we are already in a bear market, but the majority still believes that the bull run is not yet over. On my part, it looks like Bitcoin's price value still has a little room to increase.

Although, this is just my assessment. Besides, we all have our own perspectives on how to read the graph chart regarding Bitcoin's price right now,
especially since many are still trying to figure these things out.

Oh damn, do you follow the paths of the majorities or you follows your mind? Road to success is narrowed and that is why we have less number of anticipators who believes that bitcoin price will rise in the short term with the exaggeration that we are still in the bull run while market position if bear or not is still unverified at the present.
So don't either assume because major is mindedly positive and follow suit when your psychological tolerance is not made up to accept the negative odds.

[Mpamaegbu]

During Satoshi Nakamoto's final days on this forum, the topic of Bitcoin's true value was discussed. I don't remember exactly who suggested equating it to the cost of mining...

Even if we use cost of mining to determine Bitcoin's price, what about time and labour cost? Can we quantify all that too? For me, I think it's simple determining Bitcoin's price, we look at what the market says concerning it. The dynamics of demand and supply is what determines price.

As you can see from the screenshot, Bitcoin could fall to $59,857, which would represent a loss of 75% of its value from the market high.

If price ever begins to descend to that range this 2025, that will be very sad and highly disappointing. It will surely scare a lot of believers.

What is your strategy?

My strategy is not to do anything further now. I will just sit it out and wait for price to get back up. I can't stretch myself further.

[doomloop]

We share same thoughts on this, because am all in on holding for long term irrespective of whether the price dips further or rises to a new ATH. The bottom line is not to go about looking for what that might kill you. Like trying to even out your portfolio because there's a dip, you might eventually lose much more than you can afford to. Be smart and hold or diversify to include gold, because I think the price is quite more stable than Bitcoin currently.

Averaging the entry price might not be a risky move if we follow consistency. Yes sometimes, in a bear situation one might loose more money just because he wanted to average the entry price and started investing more. This depends on ones appetite. We should not invest more than we can afford to loose.

If we still have some excess funds we can surely invest more in a dip so we can get a better entry level but it does not always mean that we have to cut short our expenses and invest that money here. Holding is the key to profits here. We can still make profits just by holding even if we do not average the price. Patience will pay off and not everyone posses that skill.

[tvplus006]

Averaging the entry price might not be a risky move if we follow consistency. Yes sometimes, in a bear situation one might loose more money just because he wanted to average the entry price and started investing more. This depends on ones appetite. We should not invest more than we can afford to loose...

The best solution would be to buy back BTC at this level if they were previously sold at a high. Or buy back the previously sold coins with the proceeds and thereby increase the number of bitcoins in your wallet. Only the majority will not be able to follow this advice, as they do not have free funds.

[Scarlett_23]

Miners will just mine the coins and will not really be able to set a price. Yes, they can control the supply by holding the mined coins for longer period which can impact the price by a fraction but still it does not mean that they can completely control the price. Bitcoin's price similar to every other asset is determined by the demand and supply factor. The demand for bitcoins keep on rising while supply remains stagnant which makes the price fluctuate. Demand here plays a very important role.

My strategy will be the same old just to hold bitcoins no matter even if they dip further more. I will hold them for longer time so I do not care about such short dips because I will always remain bullish for long term.

Those who aim to invest in the long term should not lose their morale by repeatedly looking at the price. Because if you lose your morale and keep selling repeatedly when you see the price falling, it is not possible to recover the loss. No one can tell when the price of Bitcoin will fall or rise, not even miners. Basically, when the demand for Bitcoin increases, the price increases, and when the demand decreases, the price decreases. Miners and investors with large amounts of money cannot determine its price accurately. Therefore, if you invest consistently according to the rules (according to the average price), you can remain risk-free.

[0x000369]

bro op respect for bringing up the old school mining cost floor thing satoshi era vibes but lets be real that shit worked in 2014 2018 2022 when market was tiny and only retail degens playing

now? 2025? we got spot etfs vacuuming 10k btc a day blackrock fidelity not dumping ever trump literally talking usa bitcoin reserve el salvador buying 1 btc daily other countries waking up

microstrategy got more btc than most miners combined and they borrowing billions to buy more mining cost 60k? lmfao thats cute

new floor is 100k easy institutions not letting their multi billion bags go red like that we going 250k+ this cycle then chill at 150k "dip" next bear diamond hands eating good this time no more 85% crashes ever again

this time it really is different bro trust me



hodl or get rekt simple as

[stompix]

How can you find out the cost of mining 1 BTC? I use an indicator from Trading View which is based on analysts' and Cambridge's calculations. As you can see from the screenshot, Bitcoin could fall to $59,857, which would represent a loss of 75% of its value from the market high.

Cost of mining is the most idiotic indicator, and it's a fierce competition for the top place in a world of stupid indicators!

The cost of mining a Bitcoin is influenced by the price which makes it useless, does Bitcoin goes up, more miners join, you need to add more hash and more electricity consumption to make the same revenue. does BTC price go down, low-income miners go bankrupt, resilient miners keep mining they spend less kwh to mine the same thing..

Bitcoin is not oil or coal, where it doesn't matter if a ton of coal is $100 or $50, you pay the same truck the same excavator, the same wage to mine a bucket of it, no matter the price, it's absolutely useless to discuss the "cost of mining a bitcoin"!
Head over to the mining section and you will get the same answers, the cost of mining a full Bitcoin is influenced by the price, not the other way around.
If that had been possible, all we would have had to do is buy 100x times more ASICs and voila, the cost is 100x so the value goes 100x!

[bitbollo]

maybe in the early days, there was similar way to count or understand what was a correct price of bitcoin.
I don't know, with many changes nowadays if this can be seen as possible because with many news laws and changes... I can't use any "blockchain" data or hashrate to understand how it's performing in FIAT.
I have seen for mostly if not all in my life an easy assumption = If you are not a pro, it's much much more easy buy coins and not mining equipment...

[laijsica]

Averaging the entry price might not be a risky move if we follow consistency. Yes sometimes, in a bear situation one might loose more money just because he wanted to average the entry price and started investing more. This depends on ones appetite. We should not invest more than we can afford to loose...

The best solution would be to buy back BTC at this level if they were previously sold at a high. Or buy back the previously sold coins with the proceeds and thereby increase the number of bitcoins in your wallet. Only the majority will not be able to follow this advice, as they do not have free funds.

This is one of the best solutions but some of them end up digesting the profit and not finding the funds available later. Another bad idea is that short term traders sell at high prices in the hope of buying back from the dips. The problem for them is when they do not get the expected price drop and spend the money in different sectors and do not have the funds available to invest in each subsequent dip period.

You can use this strategy of buying and selling Bitcoin correctly when you do not spend the invested funds in different sectors and allocate that fund only for Bitcoin. Many folk get greedy and buy shitcoin in the hope of getting high profits which is a wrong decision and this type of traders end up losing their capital along with the profit and cannot catch the great event of Bitcoin price drop.

[tvplus006]

For Bitcoin, that fair value is the cost of mining.

And what price will bitcoin have, according to your calculation methodology, when the last bitcoin will be mined and, accordingly, it will be impossible to calculate the cost of bitcoin mining. What method will then be used to calculate the price of BTC?

The last Bitcoin will be mined in about a hundred years. None of us will be alive by then.

To determine the price of BTC, it doesn't matter if you're alive in 100 years or not. The price will be determined by the supply, which, as we know, is limited, and the demand, which by that time may be either large or non-existent.

[Oluwa-btc]

There is no fixed rule. In each cycle something new happens. For example, in the previous cycle, the low exceeded the ATH of the previous cycle, which is something that had never happened before. Therefore, there is a good probability that the low of the current cycle will be less than the cost of mining one Bitcoin.

Analysts use different frameworks,but none are definitive or effective.None of it can determine Bitcoin's value or even reliably predict a value.Bitcoin's value is emergent not stable,it comes different works of market and global forces.Bitcoin's fluctuated because demand and supply varies,demand changes fast while supply stays limited to users.

[Alpen]

Even if we use cost of mining to determine Bitcoin's price, what about time and labour cost? Can we quantify all that too? For me, I think it's simple determining Bitcoin's price, we look at what the market says concerning it. The dynamics of demand and supply is what determines price.

Bitcoin is mined using ASIC miners. Essentially, you launch the machine and forget about it until something breaks down. Therefore, the time and labor costs for setup and maintenance minimally affect the overall cost of production.

Regarding the market price, I will reiterate: historically, regardless of supply or demand, Bitcoin always bounces off the lower bound of the mining cost of production. This is statistical fact, so arguing against it is pointless.