How can the real value of Bitcoin be accurately determined?

[shinratensei_]

You got it all mixed up)) This hashrate drops when the price of bitcoin declines, as miners disable their ASIC. Conversely, when the price of bitcoin increases, mining becomes economically more profitable, which forces miners to turn on their ASICs again, which were disabled when the price of BTC decreased, and this leads to an increase in the hashrate.

If you truly believe that, then you have NEVER actually looked at the Bitcoin price and the hash rate on the same chart.

I think he's right. Most of mining company still runs their ASIC based on profitability and if it's not profitable then there's no point in running the ASIC.
Not every company can just hoard bitcoin, some have low treasury and might turn on and off based on price and because of that hashrate follow the price.

It's simple math if you think of miner as people who find profit from the margin.

[vanesha]

Even up to now, Bitcoin has touched $87k after previously reaching over $120k. Your analysis was quite accurate, at least in identifying the downward trend. However, reaching $59k still needs further confirmation. It may happen in January. I believe that aligns with the chart you showed, which uses the 1D time frame. Of course, we still need to wait at least one week to one month for proper confirmation.

[Out of mind]

It's hard to hear that, isn't it? But in previous crypto winters, losses have been greater than 80%. I was prepared for such a scenario, however, and I have the funds to average out my position, which I will start doing gradually below $80k. I have staked my available BTC coins on the Cryptomus exchange for the duration of the crypto winter.

Bitcoin has an unpredictable volatile history, so am not amazed on learning of this speculative information about what could possibly happen with bitcoin price falling below $60k. It could perhaps got much deeper with price should global crisis and other economic factors worsening in the years by. I could remember vividly how bitcoin once went dip-ish to $16k after an ATH of $72k+ in a previous circle, that was 77.7% loss for holders at that time, and now with a $126k ATH. Regardless of what the price decline might fall to, am just in thoughts what the next 4 years from now will make of bitcoin price facing another bull season.

Most of us know the history of Bitcoin, if the price of Bitcoin drops to $60k, then it is not unusual. As in the past, its market fell from the highest ATH to $16k, which was about 75%--80% of the market down, it will not be unusual if the market is down now. And we hope that after the next halving, the Bitcoin market will fully recover its value and the market will enter higher. If the Bitcoin market drops from $126k to the lowest $30k, then of course it is a big loss for many investors, but there is a possibility that it will be better for the next bull season, because the number of investors will increase and the demand for Bitcoin will increase, in which case the price will increase a lot. However, if the Bitcoin market is dumping much more than the current high, then for the next season it will definitely increase several times more.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

It's also possible that it might not fall to $59k between now and the next bull season, if it does, then it will go below that, whatever the price of Bitcoin does, I will be more pleased to see that the price goes to my target price of buy more but whether it does or not, I will continue to buy more fraction of Bitcoin monthly, until 2028. If the prediction of some analyst is true, Bitcoin will pump and not dump.

[barbara44]

How can you find out the cost of mining 1 BTC? I use an indicator from Trading View which is based on analysts' and Cambridge's calculations.

I read somewhere that when bitcoin hit the market for very first time, its value was determined based on the cost of electricity charges to produce one block reward which was 50 BTC at that time. So, the price of 50 BTC was determined by the electricity cost needed to mine a block. But, I am sure that we have evolved from that toward the basic mechanics of every market which is supply and demand.

Discovering the price of bitcoin based on the mining cost on very fist listing was making sense but still looking around that does not sensible to me at least. We should adapt usual market standardising for bitcoin as well. So, discovering the price of a bitcoin based on available circulation and demand in market must be a right approach and we are already doing that. In between, manipulations are common and a commodity must withstand all of them and should continue to identify and stick with what market determines as an actual value.

[Bluedrem]

I don't think Bitcoin will fall to $59,000 so quickly. I have a feeling that Bitcoin will cross $100,000 again in January, maybe then it will come down, and no matter how much it falls, it will stabilize above $70,000. But if there is any good news about Bitcoin in the meantime, I firmly believe that Bitcoin will create a new ATH again this season and even if the price drops, it will stabilize above $100,000.

[tbct_mt2]

I don't think Bitcoin will fall to $59,000 so quickly. I have a feeling that Bitcoin will cross $100,000 again in January, maybe then it will come down, and no matter how much it falls, it will stabilize above $70,000. But if there is any good news about Bitcoin in the meantime, I firmly believe that Bitcoin will create a new ATH again this season and even if the price drops, it will stabilize above $100,000.

If you consider the whole 2025 year as a distribution phase when Bitcoin fluctuated above $100,000 in many months, there will no longer distribution phase in 2026 and if the new year is bearish, Bitcoin can continue its fall to lower price.

From $80,000 to $59,000, it's about 38% correction and if you look back how Bitcoin very quickly fell to $80,000, I think it is not impossible for another fast down to $59,000.

That price is about 54% from Bitcoin ATH and if you know that in history, Bitcoin had corrections from ATHs to bottoms from 90%, 80% and about 70%, that $59,000 price is a very possible bottom price in 2026 or 2027.

[dunfida]

How can you find out the cost of mining 1 BTC? I use an indicator from Trading View which is based on analysts' and Cambridge's calculations.

I read somewhere that when bitcoin hit the market for very first time, its value was determined based on the cost of electricity charges to produce one block reward which was 50 BTC at that time. So, the price of 50 BTC was determined by the electricity cost needed to mine a block. But, I am sure that we have evolved from that toward the basic mechanics of every market which is supply and demand.

Discovering the price of bitcoin based on the mining cost on very fist listing was making sense but still looking around that does not sensible to me at least. We should adapt usual market standardising for bitcoin as well. So, discovering the price of a bitcoin based on available circulation and demand in market must be a right approach and we are already doing that. In between, manipulations are common and a commodity must withstand all of them and should continue to identify and stick with what market determines as an actual value.

Finding the cost of mining 1 BTC is not as straightforward as people often think because it is not a fixed number and it constantly changes. What most indicators try to do is estimate an average production cost using variables like hash rate energy prices hardware efficiency mining difficulty and block rewards. Cambridge data and similar models are useful references but they are still estimates not absolute truths. Two miners operating in different regions can have completely different costs even at the same time.

In the very early days of Bitcoin it made some sense to loosely associate price with electricity cost because the network was small demand was almost nonexistent and miners were basically the only participants. Mining was closer to an experiment than an industry. Once Bitcoin entered open markets and started trading freely that relationship weakened very fast. Today mining cost does not determine price it only sets pressure points. When price drops far below average mining cost weaker miners shut down and difficulty adjusts. When price rises well above it more miners join and competition increases.

[sana54210]

Two miners operating in different regions can have completely different costs even at the same time.

This must be a valid point and from this we can understand that determining the accurate price of a bitcoin should not fully depends on the mining cost because the electricity and other maintenance costs are not same across the globe.

Once Bitcoin entered open markets and started trading freely that relationship weakened very fast. Today mining cost does not determine price it only sets pressure points.

Yes, with the open-market, we are having supply demand basics of market to determine the price of bitcoin still mining costs are having indirect influence on determining the price level of bitcoin, but not up to the level of controlling the price level, that is the reality.

I am not saying any point on worrying about how bitcoin prices being determined for the current scenario, we have bitcoin into open-market for over the decade and bitcoin is trading like any other asset in this world so going back to the basics after a decade of time not making any sense to me.

[fuguebtc]

I don't think Bitcoin will fall to $59,000 so quickly. I have a feeling that Bitcoin will cross $100,000 again in January, maybe then it will come down, and no matter how much it falls, it will stabilize above $70,000. But if there is any good news about Bitcoin in the meantime, I firmly believe that Bitcoin will create a new ATH again this season and even if the price drops, it will stabilize above $100,000.

If you consider the whole 2025 year as a distribution phase when Bitcoin fluctuated above $100,000 in many months, there will no longer distribution phase in 2026 and if the new year is bearish, Bitcoin can continue its fall to lower price.

From $80,000 to $59,000, it's about 38% correction and if you look back how Bitcoin very quickly fell to $80,000, I think it is not impossible for another fast down to $59,000.

That price is about 54% from Bitcoin ATH and if you know that in history, Bitcoin had corrections from ATHs to bottoms from 90%, 80% and about 70%, that $59,000 price is a very possible bottom price in 2026 or 2027.

Agreed, Bitcoin has the potential to fall to $59k or even lower if the global economic situation worsens over the next year. But I also somewhat agree with Bluedrem's view that bitcoin won't fall to $59k quickly. Bitcoin could potentially recover above $100k before experiencing deeper declines in the coming year.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading above $90k, and I expect it to reach $100k in the coming days. To me, this will be the final recovery, or in other words a dead cat bounce, before we officially enter the bear market, not a sign of a market reversal.

[Strongkored]

It's hard to hear that, isn't it? But in previous crypto winters, losses have been greater than 80%. I was prepared for such a scenario, however, and I have the funds to average out my position, which I will start doing gradually below $80k. I have staked my available BTC coins on the Cryptomus exchange for the duration of the crypto winter.

What is your strategy?

Since I also got Bitcoin from signature campaign so I can hold that Bitcoin and became my investment, so this is safer because I don't need to use my real money to buy more.
But I still plan to buy more when price below $60K, I know that price need more time but I have the patience to wait.

I just want to ask, why are you keeping your Bitcoin on an exchange? It's not safe long-term unless you only do daily trading.

[justdimin]

But in previous crypto winters, losses have been greater than 80%. I was prepared for such a scenario, however, and I have the funds to average out my position, which I will start doing gradually below $80k.

Like most other expect, we may not see another 80% downfall this time. Because, obviously those corporates would never let bitcoin to suffer like that, otherwise they may go bankrupted, this scenario is applicable governments as well. So, they must be preparing for stabilizing bitcoin market or probably for another ATH as well. This is just another speculation, I am mentioning that so that you would be prepared for this as well.

People have been discussing about sustaining value for bitcoin out of adaption but we are going to have that through manipulation. Even there would be severe bearish dominance in bitcoin, I am sure that we cannot expect another 80% fall, corporates will react and work for us toward stagnant market and then to new peaks.

[shinratensei_]

I don't think Bitcoin will fall to $59,000 so quickly. I have a feeling that Bitcoin will cross $100,000 again in January, maybe then it will come down, and no matter how much it falls, it will stabilize above $70,000. But if there is any good news about Bitcoin in the meantime, I firmly believe that Bitcoin will create a new ATH again this season and even if the price drops, it will stabilize above $100,000.

I think he guess $59k to be the next bottom for the future dip because that's where the local low is when bitcoin was breaking out from the descending channel pattern.
I don't think that will happen so fast too, could only happen when we are entering the real bear market but there will be major supports along the way that it would probably take half year to get there if there's a bad news.

I would not be too haste about bitcoin dumping like that, with the fed shifting from QT to QE and gonna start expanding its balance sheet and with billions into treasuries, I think there is still a chance for another rally for bitcoin.

[Jatiluhung]

It's hard to hear that, isn't it? But in previous crypto winters, losses have been greater than 80%. I was prepared for such a scenario, however, and I have the funds to average out my position, which I will start doing gradually below $80k. I have staked my available BTC coins on the Cryptomus exchange for the duration of the crypto winter.

What is your strategy?

Reaching that point, I think it's quite reasonable if it does happen in the upcoming bear market. In the previous bear market, we also saw a long decline that brought the price of bitcoin down to around $16k USD, right? So yes, I think it's quite reasonable for bitcoin to fall to a price range above $50k USD. Although I'm thinking of a scenario that goes beyond that. Namely, the decline could exceed that.

Personally, I am quite calm about facing a bear market. After all, I have accumulated more since the price was below $32k. Although I also accumulated above $50k USD and made small installments above $100k, if we look at the average purchase price, I will still make a profit even if Bitcoin returns to $50k USD. Moreover, I have no intention of selling in the next five years. I will hold onto it for as long as I can. Although my plans may change again depending on the situation.

[landheer]

Like most other expect, we may not see another 80% downfall this time. Because, obviously those corporates would never let bitcoin to suffer like that, otherwise they may go bankrupted, this scenario is applicable governments as well. So, they must be preparing for stabilizing bitcoin market or probably for another ATH as well. This is just another speculation, I am mentioning that so that you would be prepared for this as well.

People have been discussing about sustaining value for bitcoin out of adaption but we are going to have that through manipulation. Even there would be severe bearish dominance in bitcoin, I am sure that we cannot expect another 80% fall, corporates will react and work for us toward stagnant market and then to new peaks.

I share a similar perspective to yours on this matter. After all, public and private companies would certainly not want to see their portfolios suffer significant losses. Unless they sell while still in a profitable position. But that won't happen. Because that's not how they operate. It would be different with ETFs. They release and collect according to demand in their own ETFs. So, in any market situation, Bitcoin ETFs would not seem to be too affected. Please correct me if my understanding is wrong.
However, private and public companies face different situations. They treat Bitcoin as one of their asset reserves. If there is a significant decline, they will inevitably face criticism from their own investors. And they won't allow that to happen.

[Maus0728]

Isn't the real value of bitcoin already what it is right now? It's just like any other investments or product in market, bitcoin's value is proportional to the demand it has in the market. In terms of strategy, I just do the most basic of things, I just buy my bitcoin and hodl no matter what, dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is the best way to make sure that you are making the most value out of your investment. It doesn't matter to me how much heavy the losses I get during the winter of the bitcoin market, each dip in prices is just an opportunity to me to buy more bitcoin.

[dzungmobile]

Isn't the real value of bitcoin already what it is right now? It's just like any other investments or product in market, bitcoin's value is proportional to the demand it has in the market. In terms of strategy, I just do the most basic of things, I just buy my bitcoin and hodl no matter what, dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is the best way to make sure that you are making the most value out of your investment. It doesn't matter to me how much heavy the losses I get during the winter of the bitcoin market, each dip in prices is just an opportunity to me to buy more bitcoin.

Bitcoin value changes with time and there is difference between value and price. It is not always or by default to see value and price is the same. Imagine in a bull market, price is higher than value as emotion and fomo makes people want to buy higher a d higher so the price will be lifted up a lot while value can not rise similarly and quickly. Oppositely, in a bear market when most people are fearful, price will likely be lower than value.

Generally we can not know exact value of Bitcoin but the nearest figure we can use is the cost of mining one bitcoin, or average cost of mining one bitcoin recently days or weeks.

[WatChe]

Isn't the real value of bitcoin already what it is right now? It's just like any other investments or product in market, bitcoin's value is proportional to the demand it has in the market. In terms of strategy, I just do the most basic of things, I just buy my bitcoin and hodl no matter what, dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is the best way to make sure that you are making the most value out of your investment. It doesn't matter to me how much heavy the losses I get during the winter of the bitcoin market, each dip in prices is just an opportunity to me to buy more bitcoin.

One reason why Bitcoin price is going high is because it's supply is limited and new Bitcoins are released in a controlled way but it's demand keep going up with time.

DCA is the right way to invest in Bitcoin because Bitcoin price is volatile and we are not sure that what's the absolute high and low value. Even the one who has large capital must not invest it at one price rather he should spread his investment over 4 to 5 years. We have data available that tells us how profitable DCA is, if done over longer duration.

[jaberwock]

Reaching that point, I think it's quite reasonable if it does happen in the upcoming bear market. In the previous bear market, we also saw a long decline that brought the price of bitcoin down to around $16k USD, right? So yes, I think it's quite reasonable for bitcoin to fall to a price range above $50k USD. Although I'm thinking of a scenario that goes beyond that. Namely, the decline could exceed that.

Personally, I am quite calm about facing a bear market. After all, I have accumulated more since the price was below $32k. Although I also accumulated above $50k USD and made small installments above $100k, if we look at the average purchase price, I will still make a profit even if Bitcoin returns to $50k USD. Moreover, I have no intention of selling in the next five years. I will hold onto it for as long as I can. Although my plans may change again depending on the situation.

Most people are saying that the lowest point in the upcoming bear market will be somewhere above $50k, but I don't think so, because I believe that the price will easily fall below that point once the decline starts, because there will be a lot of selling pressure, and if there won't be much buying, then the price won't recover or go up again, and if anything happens in the real world that affects the market, or even if there is FUD and rumours around, that will also push the price down because of weak hands.

You have used most of the bear market, as it seems, and that's what everyone should do. If someone has money that they can spare, they should buy as much as they can during the bear market, so that when the bull market approaches, you should be able to get good profits, and even if you miss the higher price points, you should still be able to get profits like the recent times when the price was below $90k, investors like yourself must have been constantly in profit.