The Trust Crisis: Why Nobody Believes the Experts Anymore

[Porfirii]

The word "expert" is so vague. Is it because of education? Then many unemployed people with education are also experts. Is it because of the accuracy of predictions? Then no one would become an expert except those who are lucky enough to guess correctly. Is it because of money? Then my next-door uneducated meatball seller is an expert because he's rich.

-snip-

That's quite accurate. The problem with experts, at least in Economics, is that most of the times pure chance is the key factor to be successful, and it seems that there is a whole industry interested in hiding this reality. Like a Nobel Prize winner in Economics said (in the work with which he won it, precisely), most WS experts are not better at predicting trends than the average Joe, but it is worth paying them millions to maintain the narrative that reality is different than that.

[AmoreJaz]

I am usually sceptical about people called experts, especially when it has to do with economic and fiscal policies. In my country they are basically just puppets of the federal government and they will never agree to have gotten it wrong or fault government policies, they just follow the script time and again.

These same "experts" would try to deceive people not to buy bitcoin, they would call it a bubble and tell all sort of lies to strike fear in people not to be their own bank. Glad that many people no longer listen to them and only see them for their repeated lies.

Those so-called experts are also humans, so they have flaws also. They are not perfect so to speak. But they may have the knowledge and skills that others people don't have. And most of the time, these experts are only self-proclaimed, so there's this dilemma that we really don't know the extent of how expert they are in a certain field of study. And with how AI works these days, you can basically learn a lot of things with the aid of internet. And one prompt will give you tons of info already. So a lot of experts today are now not relevant anymore because anyone can just consult AI or cyberspace for something they don't know. I believe most consultants are out of work now.

[DrBeer]

In today's world, the meaning of the word “expert” has lost much of its weight. Whereas previously there were people on the market who actually analyzed, assessed the situation, and made informed predictions, today it is essentially opinion leaders who promote one narrative or another to manipulate the market or the minds of potential consumers of certain goods/services.
 Therefore, if we take a selection of “expert forecasts” for the past, say, five years, the probability of their forecasts will be comparable to the forecasts that can be obtained by tossing a coin. I may be wrong, but if there is a difference, it will not be significant

[abhiseshakana]

You're not entirely wrong. In fact, the phenomenon you're observing is related to the fact that politics is becoming increasingly expensive. When campaign, lobbying, and party operational costs soar, the simple consequence is that public decisions, including expert recommendations, are often no longer guided by the interests of the wider public, but by those who can finance the political process. I believe this is a pattern that explains why expert predictions are often wrong, yet persist:

Experts operate within a structure constrained by political and capital interests. In 2007, the financial political structure demanded a narrative that boosted optimism, leading economists to assume the housing market was safe. The same thing happened when the government claimed fiscal efficiency would improve the economy, or that inflation was only temporary. Political pressure and sponsorship interests made analysis softer, not more honest. When politics is expensive, policy choices become biased toward investors. Governments raise taxes and cut social services to keep investors happy, not just rhetoric. In a highly costly political environment, investors are not just owners of capital; they are the pillars of continued power. As a result, the burden of policy falls on the public, while investors must always feel secure.

People lose trust because the reality of life doesn't match the government's official narrative. The government says the economy is good, but people work two or three jobs. Banks claim stability, then bail them out with public money when they fail. When everyday economic reality contradicts the official version, the public naturally loses faith.

Crypto has become a symbol of a rebellion against trust. For some, crypto is not just an asset, but a protest against institutions that have been too often wrong, too slow to change, and too close to political power funded by big capital. From this perspective, it's not the public that's irrational, but rather the institutions that seem disconnected from social reality. Trust can only be restored if political structures become more transparent and less dominated by the interests of capital and experts dare to be independent even if their analyses are politically unpopular. As long as politics remains expensive, the public will naturally remain skeptical.

When politics becomes a high-stakes game, the public loses its basis for trusting experts, institutions, and policies. This isn't because people are anti-science or anti-economics, but because they've seen too often who truly benefits from these decisions. Trust doesn't simply disappear; it's undermined by the system itself.

[Kelward]

Experts on financial matters are speculators therefore we don't need to totally rely on everything they say, for instant we hear predictions about Bitcoin price all the time but most of them don't materialize. Some of these experts give predictions and hope that it turns out accurate so that they can capitalize on it to get followers. By extension we shouldn't believe everything that influencers say online,  they are just promoting a brand to get followers and relevance. Always DYOR about financial matters and make up your own mind about your financial future. We shouldn't be too quick to believe everything we hear because if we act on it and it didn't work out the lose will be on us.

[bubilas]

How many times in the past two decades have the experts been correct?

I agree with you, because experts who make public statements to the general public are usually populists trying to stand out and advance their careers. But the wealthy and government insiders have access to powerful analysts who will give them their forecasts, but not us. We are simply the public. We bear the brunt of crises and feel them more than anyone else. That's why we don't trust anyone, which leads to ridicule from above, as if we're stupid and timid. But everyone who doesn't trust cheap analysts is right. You need to trust your own conclusions and read between the lines.

[Joy- maker]

The truth is I still trust experts but not that much just an extent, because the majority of things experts are predicting now is base on their own interest, and not based on statistics as usual, they are now bias. expert are now predicting a crypto project for example to be a good one just because they are already holding a good portion of that project,  so indirectly they are luring people into the project just because of their vested interest which is very bad. so for that reason whenever experts predict a particular project to perform well, I also carry out my own research, do most statistics, and I also talk to people who are mini experts in that area to hear their own opinion and their views on that project before investing on it.

[lixer]

So maybe this is the time for us to become experts and make our own decision rather than trusting these experts right? We too can spend a decent amount of time in market research, use the expert opinion as a guidance tool and make our own research without really relying on these experts. I never believed the experts because I would never make my decisions based on other people's opinions. Even these experts are regular people who have a solid history in research and analysis.

It is not that difficult to analyse the markets on our own so I would in fact do that instead of just relying on anyone else. These industry experts might have good knowledge but it does not necessarily mean that they are 100% right always. Their research is backed by various other papers which are published in the past. Their research mainly focuses on theoretical knowledge and might lack practical knowledge.

[coupable]

How many times in the past two decades have the experts been correct? In 2007, they said the housing market was safe. It crashed in 2008. They argued that reduction of government expenditure would boost the economy. It didn't. They claimed that the inflation was temporary. It wasn't. They claimed that banking system was stable. Then banks began to fail again. And the same people that were wrong are still giving advice. And they are mad that we no longer trust them

What makes things worse is that if you ask other experts in the same period of each crisis they will tell you the opposite of what other expert told you in the example. This tells a lot about how manipulative are those sciences that can be used to hide disasters.
Economical and financial experts are not to be trusted when talking about general analysis. The best is to limit their public opinions not to extend to give them as they are truth.

[joniboini]

We too can spend a decent amount of time in market research, use the expert opinion as a guidance tool and make our own research without really relying on these experts. I never believed the experts because I would never make my decisions based on other people's opinions. Even these experts are regular people who have a solid history in research and analysis.

Wouldn't that imply you still trust their judgment to some extent? I do agree that we shouldn't take what people said at face value, though.

Anyway, researching on our own is definitely a great thing. But if someone explains their reasoning in a well-structured manner, I think it's worth taking note. At the end of the day, if they provide the theories and match to back up their claims, we can see whether they're spouting nonsense or not. It's pretty common to see disagreement outside of crypto/finance markets due to different theories or evidence to begin with.

[shinratensei_]

The problem is these experts sounds like kind of fake and not genuine. Whenever people heard expert talk about finance the first thing on their mind is somebody is shilling for something or just fear mongering.
Do we even need to have opinion of expert on a sector full of speculation though like finance where everybody got no idea? The only expert I'd hear are scientists.

[davis196]

Economists are a different kind of "experts". I know some jokes about economists. Something like "gather 19 economists in one room and you will have 20 different opinions". Also there's another one "there are lies, there are big lies and there's statistics".
I don't believe in experts in finance and economy, because their opinions are biased. The bulls keep spreading absurd bullish optimism, when there's a bloodbath on the markets, while the bears are always spreading doom and gloom predictions, when the market is going up.
Trust should be earned. I don't give trust to anyone for free. The amount of people, who are spreading lies and false propaganda grows in times like these. Social media also contributed to the downfall of expertise and authority. Everyone is a wannabe "expert" nowadays.

[martinex]

The truth is I still trust experts but not that much just an extent, because the majority of things experts are predicting now is base on their own interest, and not based on statistics as usual, they are now bias. expert are now predicting a crypto project for example to be a good one just because they are already holding a good portion of that project,  so indirectly they are luring people into the project just because of their vested interest which is very bad. so for that reason whenever experts predict a particular project to perform well, I also carry out my own research, do most statistics, and I also talk to people who are mini experts in that area to hear their own opinion and their views on that project before investing on it.

Correct they are now bias and they always announce this, not upfront, but when their wallets are full, and they simply press the sell button as soon as their fans come in. Their trick is to pump up their money first, misleading them to appear honest, and then, as usual, they sleep peacefully, making them the victims.

The curses are born from fans who follow the maestro's advice, but that's how it often ends up for traders who believe too much in what seems like pure and righteous talk, even though it's actually a disease.

Yes. They generally fall into the same trap when trading, doing so without any analysis, whether using market data or anything else. They generally rely on instinct and simply hope the price will rise quickly and be pumped up within a matter of days.

[KiaKia]

Experts have to make money too, if they tell you the truth it is possible that they won't make anything, lies to them is an advantage over the public, in 2022 how many experts are telling people to start buying bitcoin? I don't see anyone.

Until the price of Bitcoin start to shoot through the roof is when they all started to show up bringing predictions that's impossible, I knew all I have to do is the opposite of what they say.

Experts know what they are doing, they are not stupid or fake, they need to spread those lies to mislead the public, this is the only way they can have their way.

[Johnlomape]

Experts on financial matters are speculators therefore we don't need to totally rely on everything they say, for instant we hear predictions about Bitcoin price all the time but most of them don't materialize. Some of these experts give predictions and hope that it turns out accurate so that they can capitalize on it to get followers. By extension we shouldn't believe everything that influencers say online,  they are just promoting a brand to get followers and relevance. Always DYOR about financial matters and make up your own mind about your financial future. We shouldn't be too quick to believe everything we hear because if we act on it and it didn't work out the lose will be on us.

When we put too much of our beliefs on these people, they can use the trusts that have been giving to them and the reliability to manipulate the market. These people want to make money too so in other time they can drop a fake signal that will make people to get wrong results while they can use the opportunity to make millions for themselves. The system is already corrupted and the government as large numbers of these officials that are taking advantage on the society without minding if their could be repercussion for their actions.

[DrBeer]

A question for those who believe and trust modern experts: can you provide a list of your trusted experts whose predictions:
- were made long before the event
- came true with a frequency higher than the probability distribution? 
 

[slapper]

How many decades has inflation been a problem for countries everywhere up to now? It hasn’t been eliminated from the past to the present, right? It really depends on a country’s leaders
on how they manage the nation they’re leading. For example, in our country we only found out the other day that we apparently have a president who’s an addict.

No wonder our country’s economy has been affected for years. He’s very incompetent and doesn’t care about the value of Bitcoin or cryptocurrency, or how it could help our local community.
On top of that, prices are extremely high, our stock exchange has crashed, and many foreign investors have pulled out their investments because they know the president is corrupt.
That’s why the crisis in our country is so severe right now.

I feel your post a lot, man. You are correct: inflation has never been absent. However, what you are talking about is not the normal inflation. It is the process of having corrupt, high, and busy people in power serving themselves rather than serving the country

You do not simply have the increase in prices. You have:
- a president nobody can trust
- investors running away
- a dead-looking stock market.
- leaders that do not even bother to find out what tools such as Bitcoin could offer to average people

It is fully understandable that you do not trust experts or authorities in that case. They told you "the system is stable", but you live the reality: high prices, low hope

To most of us, crypto does not mean making money quick. It is about not being under complete control of corrupt and careless people

From what you wrote, the trust problem in your country is not just with "experts" in general. It's with a whole political class that has been exposed as fake. And when people become aware of that, as you have just told us... it is very difficult to return to blind faith

When did you quit believing the experts? Was there a specific moment? And do you believe that trust will ever return? Or is it gone forever?

Am I wrong about this?

The real expert would talk about probability and won't say anything for certain. There were many experts that warned about the banks and the real estate before the crisis but people were so into the hype that most of them didn't cared to listen.
Nouriel Roubini in 2006 in an interview with IMF for the IMF Survey, mentioned about the upcoming housing bust. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/2006/101606.pdf
Meredith Whitney warned about the bank credits in 2007 https://www.reuters.com/article/world/cibc-analyst-got-death-threats-on-citigroup-report-idUSN04195378

The market and overall economy do have a trend and signals but its unpredictable and in some cases, its predictable but we can't control the outcome.
Take an example of the AI bubble, almost all agree on it being a bubble and everyone saying it would be worse if we don't control it sooner but yet the feeding of bubble is going on and even when we want to stop it, it can't be. People are still investing heavily for FOMO.

Another example is bitcoin, I don't think there are anyone who don't believe bitcoin would hit a new all time high but we've seen bitcoin going below 100k and we don't have much control over it. Its mostly related to the world politics and economics which don't look bright in the near future as well.

Yes, I hear you, but I believe this only makes my point darker. Yes, Roubini and Whitney warned us. And what happened? Whitney got death threats. Roubini was nicknamed "Dr. Doom" and treated like a crazy person. They were correct and the system punished them to be correct. In the meantime, the professionals who claimed that nothing was wrong (who were disastrously wrong) most of them still hold high offices. Still giving advice. And it is still considered credible

When you speak about the real experts, who discuss probability and uncertainty, I agree. Nevertheless, the system does not reward genuine professionals. It rewards the professionals who inform the people what they want to know

~

These economists get it wrong when they try to solve current problems with outdated solutions. The failure to accept that these economic theories cannot be effective in this current economic reality is their undoing. They are too proud to accept that Bitcoin could solve some of the problems of the fiat monetary system.

I have totally lost confidence in my country's economic policymakers. When they told us to avoid cryptocurrency, it was the time we needed it as a hedge against inflation. They told us to keep fiat when the country is facing its highest inflation. My conclusion is that when the government says go left, in some cases going right might be safer. My reason is that most of their policies are designed to satisfy the elite. So they usually deceive the common man. When they told us to avoid cryptocurrencies, there were reports that top government officials were buying Bitcoin.

I do not believe that they are even trying to hide it at this point. They are simply gambling that the majority of the people will not see the difference or take action on it. Your example is ideal - authorities were purchasing Bitcoin and encouraging people not to do it. That is insider trading on national scale. They know something that we do not know, and they are making it work against us

And when their polices crash, WE are the ones paying. They put the blame on global forces or supply chains when inflation kills savings. Yet they are the people who printed the money. They are the ones who made interest rates zero several years. They made the choices. We suffer the consequences

You said these economic theories can't work in present reality. I'd go further: I think the theories DO work, just not for us. They are as designed to serve the people that designed them

Think about it. People suffer as a result of inflation. Who has savings? Regular people. Inflation assists those in debt and assets. Who has debt and assets? Governments. Corporations. The wealthy

So when they say "we need to fight inflation", what they mean is "we need to stop fighting it RIGHT before it starts hurting us instead of you"

[Hewlet]

When the government tells you that the economy is fine, yet you have to work two or more jobs just to make a living, you no longer trust the government. You begin to believe in what you can actually see. When banks claim that everything is fine, but then you saw them bailed out as ordinary people are losing their house, you no longer trust banks

You don't have to trust the expert, the government it whatever individual that projects himself as one that has super knowledge about any given field. Trusting them doesn't help you that much. What helps you is a believe In yourself that you're able to survive and do things real good in the midst of a draining economy or government. Those to some extent are external factors that you might not be able to control. The internal factors which you can control are the things you can pay attention to

[tbterryboy]

The truth is I still trust experts but not that much just an extent, because the majority of things experts are predicting now is base on their own interest, and not based on statistics as usual, they are now bias. expert are now predicting a crypto project for example to be a good one just because they are already holding a good portion of that project,  so indirectly they are luring people into the project just because of their vested interest which is very bad. so for that reason whenever experts predict a particular project to perform well, I also carry out my own research, do most statistics, and I also talk to people who are mini experts in that area to hear their own opinion and their views on that project before investing on it.

Cryptos have been into existence only after 2009 which means their life so far is not even more than 20 years. The experts have years and years of experience so I do not think that they can be an expert when it comes to crypto projects. But for other markets like the housing society, bonds, etc they might have spent multiple years in studying and analysing the markets so they might be called an expert there.

Most of the times, when I see these experts, they already have started growing white hard and are quite aged. That means they have spend a good amount of time in the markets which made them the experts. With cryptos, even we can tend to become an expert if we spend decent time in studying about the project. I don't think we need to rely on these experts when it comes to crypto projects.

[Rruchi man]

In today's world, the meaning of the word “expert” has lost much of its weight.

The word "expert" is a title to me, and I even trust less when the title is a self-proclaimed title.

I wouldn't blame others who feel the same way about trusting people who are called experts; if you get to find out from most of them, they have all had personal experiences, some even trusting these experts so much at one time until they became disappointed.

Trust is an expensive commodity; it has to now be earned, and if you claim to be an expert, or you are called an expert, you have to show results for people to trust you, not people trusting you before you show results.