Bitcoin and Michael Saylor fud

[Cookdata]

Always the problem with MSTR is that it's big enough to get attention at every on-chain tx.

Microstrategy could be moving bitcoin for some security reasons and people will shout microstrategy is selling their bitcoin. It's been like that for a while. Microstrategy is not an amateur at this kind of thing. They definitely have risk management. Even if they sell to restructure, doesn't mean they are selling it all.

I don't like the way institution like Strategy has accumulated thousands of Bitcoin but I can tell you they are not selling, at least not from the public wallet they managed. The concern is that the debt is getting huge, the assumption that Bitcoin will grow is why some people are funding, I don't care though because Bitcoin will always grow but the way the guy is eating debt to buy Bitcoin it's alarming, there is no liquidation to be trigger but at the same time, the debtors have high expectations and this is going to affecting the market just like it's doing now.

Michael is saying there are way to offloading shares to settle debtors even if Bitcoin price goes to 99% down or they can increase their debt repayment date which is possible but why not look for other alternatives other than just assumption, I hope they succeed but I'm very affirmative that there are other big players that doesn't want to see them succeed.

By the way, we are going to come back to what we are going to do when they eventually start selling, I don't believe this bullshit of company buying Bitcoin with debt everywhere and be saying they are not selling, hell no I'm not buying that lies to attract investors.

[Dogedegen]

The concern is that the debt is getting huge, the assumption that Bitcoin will grow is why some people are funding, I don't care though because Bitcoin will always grow but the way the guy is eating debt to buy Bitcoin it's alarming, there is no liquidation to be trigger but at the same time, the debtors have high expectations and this is going to affecting the market just like it's doing now.

This is usually done by people who are uneducated. The size of debt does not matter, the conditions of debt are all that matter. Look at this:

1) $1 billion loan, due in 20 years, 10% interest rate. Small loan relatively speaking to the next one.
2) $500 billion loan, due in 200 years, 1% interest rate. Huge loan relatively speaking.

Which loan is better and less risky?   The people who don't understand finance would say that $1 billion debt is better than $500 billion.

To make the situation worse, actually Strategy does not have that much debt. If you look at the data on Yahoo Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSTR/key-statistics/ and https://bitbo.io/treasuries/, they have a very good situation going on.

Total Debt (mrq)   8.22B
Total Debt/Equity (mrq)   14.15%
BTC holding: 649,870
BTC value: $54.77 B

There you can see that the risk is actually significantly lower than most people are writing about, because they don't even open a basic statistics page. Instead they just read FUD articles and social media posts all day long.

As far as I know they also have very good conditions on these loans therefore there is nothing to talk about, it is not alarming at all as long as they don't issue more dangerous notes with high interest.

[Free Market Capitalist]

To make the situation worse, actually Strategy does not have that much debt. If you look at the data on Yahoo Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSTR/key-statistics/ and https://bitbo.io/treasuries/, they have a very good situation going on.

Total Debt (mrq)   8.22B
Total Debt/Equity (mrq)   14.15%
BTC holding: 649,870
BTC value: $54.77 B

There you can see that the risk is actually significantly lower than most people are writing about, because they don't even open a basic statistics page. Instead they just read FUD articles and social media posts all day long.

That's right, Strategy has less debt than the typical S&P 500 company.

The average debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio for S&P 500 companies was approximately \(0.61\) as of Q4 2024, but this figure can vary significantly by industry.

(quote from google AI)

But right now, it's normal for there to be FUD. As I mentioned earlier, Strategy's business model works if Bitcoin works, and it's usually the case that those who invest in Strategy believe in the future of Bitcoin, so we've come to accept downward volatility like this. The debt is structured in such a way that it can withstand declines like this and much more.

[adaseb]

MSTR will survive if we enter a long bear market because they have in the past and came out fine. The issue is the other DAT out there. There are so many of them and they are all dumping their crypto to get their stock price up because if the stock falls below a certain number such $1, they face a delisting.

One example of this is FG Nexus, they sold 11K ETH last week or so to do a stock buy back and the price will is coming down. Most likely they will need to sell more and there other companies that are in the same boat. These are the ones that you need to worry about, however they aren't as big as MSTR so shouldn't really matter since BTC has tons of liquidity to absorb those sales.

However we are finally starting to see all these DATs fail and we knew it would end badly.

[Son Of Blockchain (SOB)]

Last Friday, Saylor dismissed rumours that the company was selling bitcoin, stating there was “no truth to the rumour.”

I see Saylor as a mentor concerning Bitcoin holding he always talks about I on his official social media handle and you'll barely hear him talk about selling Bitcoin especially when the is down so I won't believe any rumours saying that Micro Strategy is selling Bitcoin during the dip, it's makes no sense cause I don't think he'll go against what he always advice his followers on.
 Sailor is a very serious Bitcoin advocate and I belive he knows the right thing to do, maybe I would've believed if they said he dumped MSTR to buy more Bitcoin during this dip and not otherwise cause there was a time he twitted about a week ago that the company's buying daily so why would anyone believe that he'll dump when the market is still down, even when the market was bullish he was still buying than selling.

[Dogedegen]

That's right, Strategy has less debt than the typical S&P 500 company.

The average debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio for S&P 500 companies was approximately \(0.61\) as of Q4 2024, but this figure can vary significantly by industry.

(quote from google AI)

But right now, it's normal for there to be FUD. As I mentioned earlier, Strategy's business model works if Bitcoin works, and it's usually the case that those who invest in Strategy believe in the future of Bitcoin, so we've come to accept downward volatility like this. The debt is structured in such a way that it can withstand declines like this and much more.

That is also a very good data point. It is always important to put these things in the proper perspective before drawing conclusions. Doing some research is a must. Overall Strategy is pretty safe even if they did raise some money in some ways that are more risky.

MSTR will survive if we enter a long bear market because they have in the past and came out fine. The issue is the other DAT out there. There are so many of them and they are all dumping their crypto to get their stock price up because if the stock falls below a certain number such $1, they face a delisting.

Issue for what or for whom? The people that bought the stock of that company? Yes. However these small DATs are mostly run by half scammers who are utilizing a narrative wave to enrich themselves. They are not large enough to cause any issues by selling their Bitcoin or other crypto. We literally should not care about them at all, we should ignore them and not give them any attention. Strategy is one of the few legitimate DATs, most are not.

I see Saylor as a mentor concerning Bitcoin holding he always talks about I on his official social media handle and you'll barely hear him talk about selling Bitcoin especially when the is down so I won't believe any rumours saying that Micro Strategy is selling Bitcoin during the dip, it's makes no sense cause I don't think he'll go against what he always advice his followers on.

There is a video of him from a few years ago where he tells people to do everything possible to buy more Bitcoin even get as much debt as possible or a second mortgage to buy Bitcoin. He is doing what he preaches, and this can't be said about many people these days. Most public people are very fake.

[virasog]

I reckon that because there are news that some of these smaller digital asset treasuries are beginning to fail causing them to dump their coins and to buyback their stock, there are people who are beginning to speculate that Microstrategy might do something similar.

You see, the problem is not in dumping to buy the dip later again, but sometimes after you dump, you missed out, because the market may rises thereafter instead of falling the more, instead, i will suggest on buying the dip the more in accumulation, so that when the time comes for the market to rise, we can't imagine how much we could have made as profits, I said this because the market sometimes is unpredictable.

For long term yes you can accumulate Bitcoin at these low prices under 90K as these are very cheap prices and maybe we won't get them after two or three months.

While the fud in the market can be the real and personally I will be hesitant for buying more Bitcoin (for DCA) until few days until the situation is a bit clear. Also if you see that there are many longs being opened in the market in the anticipation that the bitcoin bottom is in but infact for the short term traders, they should be careful as there is yet no change of structure or anything that confirms that the bottom is in.

[Agbe]

Michael saylor has consistently come out and made the position of microstrategy as a company and that is really good for them and the future of Bitcoin. Because I think that this dip season will really define the future of strategy as it concerns Bitcoin, because it's obvious that there is already tension from a lot of people as it has to do with Bitcoin. Others companies may be selling their holdings but so far strategy has been vocal about their position and that is commendable from Michael saylor.

[Myleschetty]

The main factor that causes people to dump their crypto due to the FUD surrounding Michael Saylor is a lack of knowledge about how the market functions. This is because, following the halving effect, there is a market correction, and every market dump presents a chance to purchase at a discount.

Second,  Michael Saylor is not the reason the market exists, and the last time I looked, the market was doing well even when Michael Saylor criticized Bitcoin before retracting all of his remarks and before an enthusiast.

Third, Michael Saylor has consistently purchased Bitcoin and continues to do so whenever the chance arises. People should at least conduct their own research rather than making decisions based on false information because blockchain technology cannot be manipulated.

[Ayers]

You see, the problem is not in dumping to buy the dip later again, but sometimes after you dump, you missed out, because the market may rises thereafter instead of falling the more, instead, i will suggest on buying the dip the more in accumulation, so that when the time comes for the market to rise, we can't imagine how much we could have made as profits, I said this because the market sometimes is unpredictable.

As you said, the market can sometimes be unpredictable. So what if the opposite happens, instead of bitcoin not bouncing back like you said, but falling even more? Therefore, whether to sell at this time or continue buying will depend on each investor because each person has a different vision and investment strategy. Don't give advice arbitrarily and assume that our predictions will definitely be correct and the market will move according to our expectations.

Just like when bitcoin dropped below $100k, many small investors like us encouraged each other to keep buying while institutions continued to sell. Now they are buying back at better prices while small investors like us dare not buy more for fear that the price will continue to fall.

[PrivacyG]

Realistically speaking.  How long do you believe Micro Strategy will hold on to their Bitcoin stash for?  At some point they will have to cash out, it will not be only purchases forever.

This is an incorrect assumption that you are making. As the world continues to get on the Bitcoin standard there will never be a need to cash out. That is the mistake that you are making. Even normal people can already do this actually but the interest rate and LTV that they would get it not good, so it is not recommended yet. Soon enough though, there will never be a reason to actually sell Bitcoin.

How can people get on the 'Bitcoin standard' with interest rates?  The closest thing to this is Join Market.  Am I missing on an opportunity I did not even know about?  Until this happens and the world gets on the 'Standard', if ever, Micro Strategy has to live off something.  More over, if they make enough Profits they can start selling.

This is exactly the most dangerous part of the new collective thinking in my opinion.  Being convinced that Saylor will NEVER sell.  Not even ONE Satoshi.  I did not say he will dump every single Satoshi he has and call it a day.  But it is extremely unrealistic to believe a multi billion company will not cash in their Profits.  Even if it is to make more investments around Bitcoin.  You are setting up your self for a lot of disappointment by believing the BEST scenario is the only one that can go forward.

Further more.  If the economy is almost on its knees as a lot of people recently say, Micro Strategy will not live off oxygen and hope.  There are times when you have to sell a small portion of what you have to save the rest of your plate.

[Searing]

I read someplace that 66% of Bitcoin HODL'ers were Individuals...there may be more but about 33% where biz/corporations/etfs etc....(too lazy to look up the stats

again...feel free to beat me up if I'm wrong)

Anyway, if the above is the correct that is a lot of 'decentralized' folks controlling potentially 'vast' wealth in the future

So the easy way to get that diluted out back to the top 10% or 1% of the Financial elite and as such ..is to get folks to sells such


thus go after Salyor and others with rules etc and drive the price down...way down....panic level down so the folks with $$$ can buy btc assets on the cheap

IF it takes a few years to knock it down to 66% finance/banks/etfs/etc...traditional finance..that is just dandy


anyway HODL all seems a bit too 'contrived' and 'yelling fire' to hold any weight IMHO....

Every person that sells 'likely' has held their BTC a lot longer then Blackrock as such...keep that in mind..easier to buy and accumulate an asset like  btc then mine it

not a lot of 'individuals' form the 1960's own land around Reno or Las Vegas from the 1960's either.

[JaanusRaim]

I reckon that because there are news that some of these smaller digital asset treasuries are beginning to fail causing them to dump their coins and to buyback their stock, there are people who are beginning to speculate that Microstrategy might do something similar.

This is fud! I have mentioned already before that there might only be 2 digital asset treasuries that will survive. Microstrategy and Tom Lee's Bitmine. There will be losses during a bear market, however, they will not dump their coins.

And who guarantees this will not happen?  If the Markets turn negative in the next few months or years, it can lead to a sudden change in his plan.  Maybe they did not sell any Bitcoin yet, but this does not mean they are not going to under particular conditions.

Realistically speaking.  How long do you believe Micro Strategy will hold on to their Bitcoin stash for?  At some point they will have to cash out, it will not be only purchases forever.

It is true that they have not sold their bitcoins yet and the recent news is false. But on the other hand, there is also no guarantee that they will not sell their bitcoins if the market turns bad and the price of bitcoin plummets. We are still in the early stages of the bear market, the severity and bottom of the bear market are yet to be determined. Therefore, it is still too early to say that they will not sell their bitcoins.

After all, they are investors just like us and their ultimate goal is profit, nothing more.

MicroStrategy is investing with other people’s money through raising capital by issuing bonds. That means if the bitcoin drops so much that the MSTR price collapses, they will not be able to raise capital or will have difficulty repaying their debts. They can sell bitcoins at any time in this bear market. So instead of believing they will never sell bitcoin, they could be the black swan in this bear market.

Agree! They can be one force than helps to push the BTC price below 10 thousand usd during economic crash. Of cause not the only one.

[BlackHatCoiner]

And who guarantees this will not happen?

Nobody can obviously guarantee that Saylor will not turn evil and sell his bitcoin to enjoy insane fiat gains in the future, but this market stress doesn't change the structural logic of their position. They are a leveraged monetary black hole, not a trader. They don't need to sell to service debt. They can roll notes and issue new debt. Their filings explicitly frame bitcoin as their primary treasury reserve. You don't liquidate your reserve unless forced by existential collapse (e.g., insolvency). They don't see it as "take profit" strategy, but as an apex predator collateral asset, where they make money not by selling the asset, but by selling the best credit instruments using the asset as collateral.

[Free Market Capitalist]

This is exactly the most dangerous part of the new collective thinking in my opinion.  Being convinced that Saylor will NEVER sell.  Not even ONE Satoshi.

I don't know who are the fools who believe that. Not me. For starters, Strategy already sold:

MicroStrategy Opts For Bitcoin Wash Trading Loophole, Tax-Harvesting

MicroStrategy sold 704 bitcoins before re-purchasing 810 btc two days later

But it is extremely unrealistic to believe a multi billion company will not cash in their Profits.

You sound like FiatG rather than PrivacyG. Selling means exchanging a much superior asset, Bitcoin, for a much inferior one, which is fiat currency. When you sell, you have to pay taxes and you also undo the investment, which was working in your favor. Why sell when you can get fiat without selling?

The option to sell is planned for the future and recognized by the board for scenarios in which the mNAV falls below 1.

“Never sell your Bitcoin” is a general idea that you don't have to take literally, but you get the idea. Accumulate capital, and based on that capital, finance yourself with a good debt-to-equity ratio.

[Rgram]

You see, the problem is not in dumping to buy the dip later again, but sometimes after you dump, you missed out, because the market may rises thereafter instead of falling the more, instead, i will suggest on buying the dip the more in accumulation, so that when the time comes for the market to rise, we can't imagine how much we could have made as profits, I said this because the market sometimes is unpredictable.

The issue you highlighted here is something feasible but, not something that you find common amongst whale investors. This is usually the case of small investors whom are always about the long term, can’t hold long positions and are scared of every price movement on the charts.

Most of the conditions we experience on the chart is speculatively created by these whale investors and they could hardly be a victim of the conditions they create if we are to agree that, they somehow influence the prevailing market conditions.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

I reckon that because there are news that some of these smaller digital asset treasuries are beginning to fail causing them to dump their coins and to buyback their stock, there are people who are beginning to speculate that Microstrategy might do something similar.

You see, the problem is not in dumping to buy the dip later again, but sometimes after you dump, you missed out, because the market may rises thereafter instead of falling the more, instead, i will suggest on buying the dip the more in accumulation, so that when the time comes for the market to rise, we can't imagine how much we could have made as profits, I said this because the market sometimes is unpredictable.

I personally can not count the number of times I've sold off my entire bitcoin in the hope that I will buy back even a higher number of bitcoins at a lower price, but to my greatest disappointment, I end up buying a smaller number of bitcoin for the same price I sold my previous holding because the price went higher, and the more I kept waiting to see if the price will come down so I could buy back, they price kept climbing, at the end, I have no choice but to buy back at a higher price in other not to end up missing out completely.

This is how I came to believe that the best strategy to follow when the price of bitcoin is down is the DCA strategy, simply buy more and add to what you already hold, and if price kept declining, raise money and keep buying, but incase you ran out of cash, then instead of selling in hope to buy back cheaper, simply hold and watch.
Except you need money for something else very serious and selling some bitcoin is the only way to raise that money, then this is absolutely a different thing altogether.

[FortuneFollower]

Agree! They can be one force than helps to push the BTC price below 10 thousand usd during economic crash. Of cause not the only one.

How much MSTR holds and how much it would affect the market?

[Free Market Capitalist]

I personally can not count the number of times I've sold off my entire bitcoin in the hope that I will buy back even a higher number of bitcoins at a lower price, but to my greatest disappointment, I end up buying a smaller number of bitcoin for the same price I sold my previous holding because the price went higher, and the more I kept waiting to see if the price will come down so I could buy back, they price kept climbing, at the end, I have no choice but to buy back at a higher price in other not to end up missing out completely.

This is how I came to believe that the best strategy to follow when the price of bitcoin is down is the DCA strategy, simply buy more and add to what you already hold, and if price kept declining, raise money and keep buying, but incase you ran out of cash, then instead of selling in hope to buy back cheaper, simply hold and watch.

Well, at least you seem to have learned your lesson. And it took you long enough, huh? But now that you say you're doing DCA and accumulating more and more, imagine if you had the ability to get fiat, your local currency, without selling your Bitcoin. That's what Strategy does. It does DCA, not a regular DCA of the same amount every week, but as soon as it gets money it can invest, it buys Bitcoin.

Based on the Bitcoin you have, you take on debt, and with that debt you buy more Bitcoin, which allows you to pay off the debt or dividends in addition to operating expenses, which are minimal.  The only thing that happens is that if the price falls, you can't continue to take on debt, but that's to be expected. You maintain the debt and HODL.

That strategy is not new. It has been used extensively in real estate.

[virasog]

I reckon that because there are news that some of these smaller digital asset treasuries are beginning to fail causing them to dump their coins and to buyback their stock, there are people who are beginning to speculate that Microstrategy might do something similar.

You see, the problem is not in dumping to buy the dip later again, but sometimes after you dump, you missed out, because the market may rises thereafter instead of falling the more, instead, i will suggest on buying the dip the more in accumulation, so that when the time comes for the market to rise, we can't imagine how much we could have made as profits, I said this because the market sometimes is unpredictable.

Yeah, if you are a long term holder, you shouldn't be dumping your bitcoin on this Michael Saylor fud. If it proves to be true and the company get delisted, it will cause the panic and there will be a dump but no one can't be 100% sure and also who knows there may be some other catalyst or the dump gets bought back quickly and we do not get the chance to get back in.

There are too many rumors in the market. I heard that people are taking this MSCI as a political move by the democrats against the cryptocurrencies, and if we look at it, its feel so. Also there is a campaign to boycott JPMorgan and to close the account and move it somewhere else. All sorts of uncertainties are in the market at this time.