Bitcoin and Michael Saylor fud

[BitBrainers]

That is a fair and important distinction. The cost structure is fundamentally different now. Preferred dividends, ATM offerings, convertible notes.. this is not the lean 2022 version of MicroStrategy sitting on BTC and waiting. The machine needs fuel every month regardless of price.
My honest read: Saylor has a narrow path. BTC needs to move fast enough to outrun the dilution. If we get a slow grind or a prolonged consolidation above $70K but below $120K, the math gets uncomfortable in a way 2022 never tested.The bull case still exists. But you are right that past survival is not proof of future resilience. The liabilities are structurally different now.

[Alex077]

I think it’s not that simple - to really get it, you have to dig into how the company is structured.
For now, Saylor has around $1.5billion in cash to cover operating expenses, and he only needs Bitcoin to grow by about 2% per year to handle all the costs.

Michael Saylor just  posted a photo of himself doing a yoga pose in Bali with the caption “Stretch for Bitcoin. $STRC,” kind of playing on the name of their Stretch product - basically the preferred shares, STRC.
Saylor’s clearly emphasizing that his focus is still on long-term holding and earning yield from Bitcoin through Strategy’s instruments ($MSTR and $STRC), which, so far, seems to be working out.

[AmaGold70]

Microstrategy has been in the business of bitcoin investing for many years, and there has never been a time when they felt that bitcoin is not an asset worth investing. If am not mistaking microstrategy is the highest bitcoin investment company as they accumulate bitcoin regularly, and even by more during the dip . Michael Saylor is a role model when it comes to bitcoin investing and has trusted Bitcoin potential more than many other digital asset out there. Right from the invention of bitcoin, the bitcoin market has not been without rumours, speculations, and criticism, but up on this, bitcoin has not failed to reward investors in the long run. Bitcoin is not doing anything different from the previous pattern of market trend, is always volatile, and fluctuating in price, therefore remain focused in your bitcoin investment,and do not be confused by rumors and speculations.

[Dogedegen]

@Dogedegen. You say there is no assumption, however, what you are telling everyone is already an assumption that Michael the Saylormoon will fail on his investment on bitcoin heheheeh.  Are you very much certain that Saylor will fail because other people have failed? You might correct that there might be a chance of failure, however, making an assumption that he will certainly 100% fail because there others that failed is headshaking.

I don't think that you have understood my posts at all because none of that is what I meant, you need to read them again if you want to understand. I do not assume Saylor will fail, but I do not assume he will succeed either. I do hope that he succeeds that is true, but that should not lead me to ignore the risk that comes with the various offerings that are presented here. We should have a balanced analysis and overview of the situation regardless of whether we personally want him to succeed or not.

Bitcoin will pump this year, next year and on the other years. There is a higher chance for success for the Saylormoon, I reckon.

While that may end up being true, it is not guaranteed at all so we can't say it in that way.

I’d bet that all the people who buy into Saylor’s message – especially when it comes to these dividends – have never bought dividend-paying shares in their lives, nor have they analysed companies to see if the dividend is sustainable. They simply see the Bitcoin he’s buying and think it’s bullish without stopping to consider the cost.

I’m not sure whether it will fail or be a success, but to swallow what Saylor says like that is, at the very least, naive and shows a lack of critical thinking.

I always get surprised at how users here tend to treat different people and companies with extreme bias and differently. Sometimes they would believe someone completely like Saylor, and then they would criticize some other executive and say that everything he says is a lie or malicious even if there is no proof for that. We always have to put our emotions aside and be as objective as we can be about these things. I do want Saylor to succeed and I like a lot of what he is doing, but as I have said previously I do not like the dividend payouts one bit. I wish that they would reduce the risk and get rid of all dividend payments however is possible in the future. Even if they reduced their Bitcoin holdings by something like 30% to get rid of all debt and all dividends, that would be an amazing outcome. They would have a big stack which is smaller than the current one but it would be risk free!

The dividend sustainability question is the right one to ask. 815,061 BTC at an average cost of $75,527. Current price $77,500. He is barely above water on a fiat basis after a historic bull run. That is the uncomfortable math. But here is what most critics miss. Saylor is not running a hedge fund. He is running a conviction trade with other people's money, and he has been explicit about it from day one. The bet is simple: Bitcoin at $200K or $300K makes every liability irrelevant. The bet is not "beat the S&P by 3%."

Historic bull run? If you are talking about the price then every bull run with a new ATH is historic, but if you are talking about the bull run in general the last one was pretty lame and not historic at all. It under performed.

The risk is real. The clock is real. But calling it a guaranteed failure ignores that the same critics said this at $30K, $50K, and $70K. He is still here. Still buying. Still above his average cost. Blind faith in Saylor is naive. But so is assuming he has not modeled the downside scenarios you are describing.

If you are referring to the part of interaction between me and bbc.reporter and afterwards, then take note that I have never called it a guaranteed failure. There are some people like that, but they are in the minority. They like to throw rocks from the bottom at people at the top, while they never accomplished anything big. Neither bias is good, positive or negative.

[Free Market Capitalist]

I think it’s not that simple - to really get it, you have to dig into how the company is structured.

I think I can safely say that I’m the person on this forum who best understands how these companies operate, yet what I usually see is the opposite: people making sweeping statements on the subject without having anything more than a superficial understanding of it.

For now, Saylor has around $1.5billion in cash to cover operating expenses, and he only needs Bitcoin to grow by about 2% per year to handle all the costs.

See? And you yourself are a clear example of what I just said. For starters, it’s not $1.5 billion—it’s $2.25 billion—which anyone can verify here:

https://www.strategy.com/



But it’s also not intended to cover “operating expenses.” Initially, the reserve was set up to show the market that dividends could be paid for some time even if things went south, but Saylor himself has acknowledged that it could be used for other purposes.

Michael Saylor just  posted a photo of himself doing a yoga pose in Bali with the caption “Stretch for Bitcoin. $STRC,” kind of playing on the name of their Stretch product - basically the preferred shares, STRC.

That is not a photo of himself, that's an AI generated photo like almost everything he posts. With that level of naivety, I'm not surprised you'd believe anything Saylor says.

[BitBrainers]

Fair pushback on "historic bull run." That was loose wording. What I meant was the run from the 2022 lows to $125K — which by raw percentage is significant, but you are right that relative to previous cycles it underperformed on altcoin breadth and retail participation. The ATH framing was sloppy.
On the guaranteed failure point — we are actually in agreement. The position I was arguing against was the absolutist FUD, not your nuanced take. You are right that neither blind faith nor reflexive skepticism is useful analysis. The honest answer is nobody knows if Saylor's structure survives a prolonged consolidation. He has modeled scenarios we cannot see. The market will tell us eventually.

[bbc.reporter]

@Dogedegen. You say there is no assumption, however, what you are telling everyone is already an assumption that Michael the Saylormoon will fail on his investment on bitcoin heheheeh.

Are you very much certain that Saylor will fail because other people have failed? You might correct that there might be a chance of failure, however, making an assumption that he will certainly 100% fail because there others that failed is headshaking.

Bitcoin will pump this year, next year and on the other years. There is a higher chance for success for the Saylormoon, I reckon.

On the contrary, are you very much certain that Saylor is going to succeed? He’s creating such a need for raising money to pay dividends that if he has to suspend them for just one month, the whole company will go to the dogs.

What I am seeing more and more, though, are people who are critical of Saylor – though not so much on this forum, where most people just see that he’s buying Bitcoin and immediately start saying how bullish it is without looking at anything else, as if we were in December 2024. Believing everything Saylor says without a critical eye is so 2024. Virtually none of what he said at the end of 2024 has materialized.

The success of Michael Saylor will depend on where bitcoin's price might be on the next years. The question I ask for you is do you speculate that bitcoin will be more than $200k on 2035 or less than $50k on 2035?

If everyone speculates that Michael Saylor's issuance of debt is a failure for certain, I reckon you should prepare for lower than $50k. If Saylor fails, he will be forced to dump much of his bitcoins hehehehe.

[UchihaSarada]

The success of Michael Saylor will depend on where bitcoin's price might be on the next years. The question I ask for you is do you speculate that bitcoin will be more than $200k on 2035 or less than $50k on 2035?

If everyone speculates that Michael Saylor's issuance of debt is a failure for certain, I reckon you should prepare for lower than $50k. If Saylor fails, he will be forced to dump much of his bitcoins hehehehe.

Strategy already got massive success with huge profit in 2024 when Bitcoin market was very hot with many Bitcoin Spot ETF applications, participation of BlackRock to hype the community like this time Bitcoin Spot ETFs will be approved in the USA, which eventually became true. They got huge profit when Bitcoin made its new all time high even before halving on April 20, 2024 but they did not take profit because they were too greedy and continued their leveraging gamble.

These greedy strategies have led them to this temporary loss and a lot of risk now so if they won't stop their leverage game, they will fall to similar situation in a next bear market in years like 2030 or 2031. And if they continue with this greedy strategy, they will fall to similar loss even temporarily in 2034 or 2035 bearish years as they consider Bitcoin is the end game, don't sell their coins, and just continue accumulating more with more risky leverage use.

[BitBrainers]

The leverage question is the right frame but the time horizon matters. Strategy is not optimized for 2026 or 2030. The bet is 2035 and beyond. At $200K+ BTC the entire capital structure looks conservative in hindsight. At $40K it looks reckless. Nobody knows which scenario plays out, including Saylor. What we do know is he has been explicit about the risk from day one. The people surprised by the dilution were not paying attention.

[TedMosby]

IMO, the longer you are in Bitcoin, the lazier you get about checking news involving Bitcoin, institutions, and other macro factors. Today they may announce FUD about institutions getting out of Bitcoin, and the next day there will be news about companies buying the dip caused by that FUD. I can’t keep up with this fast circulating news.

If you are a trader, especially one aiming for short term gains, this is a must follow thing. I really respect traders who can always keep up with this kind of news and macro every day. I personally don’t read this type of news very often, only occasionally based on news from companies that interest me. I’m more interested in "onchain activity" based news, like dormant wallets that suddenly wake up, big transfers in/out of crypto exchanges, stablecoin printing, etc.

[Alpen]

I reckon that because there are news that some of these smaller digital asset treasuries are beginning to fail causing them to dump their coins and to buyback their stock, there are people who are beginning to speculate that Microstrategy might do something similar.

This is fud! I have mentioned already before that there might only be 2 digital asset treasuries that will survive. Microstrategy and Tom Lee's Bitmine. There will be losses during a bear market, however, they will not dump their coins.



As Strategy’s (MSTR) share price continues to slide, executive chairman Michael Saylor has felt compelled to address growing investor concern for the second time in two weeks.

Last Friday, Saylor dismissed rumours that the company was selling bitcoin, stating there was “no truth to the rumour.”

Saylor argued that while funds and trusts passively hold assets, Strategy is actively creating, structuring and issuing products, positioning the company as a new type of bitcoin backed structured finance enterprise.

“This year alone, we have completed five public offerings of digital credit securities, STRK, STRF, STRD, STRC and STRE, representing more than $7.7 billion in notional value,” Saylor added.

Read in full https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/11/21/michael-saylor-speaks-out-again-as-msci-concerns-mount

We can argue with the market all we want, but as a rule, the price discounts everything. The drop in MSTR's share price so far is simply tracking Bitcoin's losses. So there's no reason to panic.

However, if someone on the stock market decides to "sink" MicroStrategy's share price, it'll be hard to stop them. The company is highly leveraged and has no reserves to support the stock. If the bears force MicroStrategy to dump BTC from its treasury, the stock will just crash. And Bitcoin's price will take a hit too

[Przemax]

I think it’s not that simple - to really get it, you have to dig into how the company is structured.
For now, Saylor has around $1.5billion in cash to cover operating expenses, and he only needs Bitcoin to grow by about 2% per year to handle all the costs.

Michael Saylor just  posted a photo of himself doing a yoga pose in Bali with the caption “Stretch for Bitcoin. $STRC,” kind of playing on the name of their Stretch product - basically the preferred shares, STRC.
Saylor’s clearly emphasizing that his focus is still on long-term holding and earning yield from Bitcoin through Strategy’s instruments ($MSTR and $STRC), which, so far, seems to be working out.

I am completly surprised that the man himself dropped such an unfortunate AI made picture.

This orange suit looks like an inmate suit in the US jail system or at least very similiar to the one. I thought it was a joke or a prank comparing Saylor to Karpeles and Bankman-Fried.

[Rustam Meraj]

IMO, the longer you are in Bitcoin, the lazier you get about checking news involving Bitcoin, institutions, and other macro factors. Today they may announce FUD about institutions getting out of Bitcoin, and the next day there will be news about companies buying the dip caused by that FUD. I can’t keep up with this fast circulating news.

If you are a trader, especially one aiming for short term gains, this is a must follow thing. I really respect traders who can always keep up with this kind of news and macro every day. I personally don’t read this type of news very often, only occasionally based on news from companies that interest me. I’m more interested in "onchain activity" based news, like dormant wallets that suddenly wake up, big transfers in/out of crypto exchanges, stablecoin printing, etc.

I very much agree with you about being lazy. After a while you are starting to notice that most of news is simply FUD to make people act irrationally. One day it is Wall Street FUD, and next day it is buy wall, it is tedious to try and keep up with if you have big picture in mind. Journalism may be spun or tailored, but you can not lie to blockchain. Seeing wallets from Satoshi times move or large outflows from exchanges is more of better indicator of Smart Money at work than news story about some little bank. Stablecoin printing is also major indicator that mostly precedes a move, and focusing on it other than latest FUD from institutions definitely gives you rest. It is all about paying attention to market pulse.

[WatChe]

IMO, the longer you are in Bitcoin, the lazier you get about checking news involving Bitcoin, institutions, and other macro factors. Today they may announce FUD about institutions getting out of Bitcoin, and the next day there will be news about companies buying the dip caused by that FUD. I can’t keep up with this fast circulating news.

If you are a trader, especially one aiming for short term gains, this is a must follow thing. I really respect traders who can always keep up with this kind of news and macro every day. I personally don’t read this type of news very often, only occasionally based on news from companies that interest me. I’m more interested in "onchain activity" based news, like dormant wallets that suddenly wake up, big transfers in/out of crypto exchanges, stablecoin printing, etc.

Bitcoin is for long term and those who invest in Bitcoin for long term are not interested in checking the price on daily basis. This is because Bitcoin price will go up with time, in short duration we might see decline in price. If you are short term investor or day trader then its essential for you to keep an eye on price of Bitcoin on hourly or daily basis. Those who do job or don't have time to check price of Bitcoin on regular basis  must go for long term investment.

[tbct_mt2]

Bitcoin is for long term and those who invest in Bitcoin for long term are not interested in checking the price on daily basis. This is because Bitcoin price will go up with time, in short duration we might see decline in price. If you are short term investor or day trader then its essential for you to keep an eye on price of Bitcoin on hourly or daily basis. Those who do job or don't have time to check price of Bitcoin on regular basis  must go for long term investment.

It's mindset of long term investors because controlling themselves is very important for investment success and don't check price too often is one of most important practice for avoiding uncontrolled emotion and action.

Long term investors who actually did proper preparations before starting their investment, buying and holding bitcoins, already understand Bitcoin fundamentals and even more than that, so they are no longer affected by Bitcoin fuds or price volatility in short term. They might still have some uncertainty in earliest days, weeks of their investment practice but with solid knowledge preparation, their journeys are more easily and less stressful than people who bought bitcoin without fundamental knowledge.

[BitBrainers]

IMO, the longer you are in Bitcoin, the lazier you get about checking news involving Bitcoin, institutions, and other macro factors. Today they may announce FUD about institutions getting out of Bitcoin, and the next day there will be news about companies buying the dip caused by that FUD. I can’t keep up with this fast circulating news.

If you are a trader, especially one aiming for short term gains, this is a must follow thing. I really respect traders who can always keep up with this kind of news and macro every day. I personally don’t read this type of news very often, only occasionally based on news from companies that interest me. I’m more interested in "onchain activity" based news, like dormant wallets that suddenly wake up, big transfers in/out of crypto exchanges, stablecoin printing, etc.

The on-chain focus is the right instinct. News cycles are noise by design. Stablecoin printing, exchange outflows, dormant wallet activity. These are signals that do not lie because they cost real money to fake. The problem is most retail investors never learn to read them because headlines are easier and media has no incentive to teach people to bypass media. The traders who consistently outperform are not the ones with the best news feed. They are the ones who stopped trusting the news feed entirely.

[Smartprofit]

I think it’s not that simple - to really get it, you have to dig into how the company is structured.
For now, Saylor has around $1.5billion in cash to cover operating expenses, and he only needs Bitcoin to grow by about 2% per year to handle all the costs.

Michael Saylor just  posted a photo of himself doing a yoga pose in Bali with the caption “Stretch for Bitcoin. $STRC,” kind of playing on the name of their Stretch product - basically the preferred shares, STRC.
Saylor’s clearly emphasizing that his focus is still on long-term holding and earning yield from Bitcoin through Strategy’s instruments ($MSTR and $STRC), which, so far, seems to be working out.

I am completly surprised that the man himself dropped such an unfortunate AI made picture.

This orange suit looks like an inmate suit in the US jail system or at least very similiar to the one. I thought it was a joke or a prank comparing Saylor to Karpeles and Bankman-Fried.

Maybe he just saw his future? 🙋 In fact, he's much more flexible than he appears in the picture.

Michael Saylor has created a completely unique system. He exploits the shortcomings of the modern financial system to accumulate Bitcoin.

He likely believes Bitcoin is a very valuable asset (which is true), so he believes he can create a large ecosystem of traditional assets around it and then, through Bitcoin's future price growth, repay all his obligations to investors (which may be a mistake).

What, in my opinion, is Michael Saylor's problem? He understands that the modern financial system is rotten to the core. However, he doesn't realize that it has already poisoned his mind. Michael Saylor is also a product of the modern financial system. That's why he is now taking actions that fatally worsen the situation with Bitcoin's decentralization. Removing Bitcoin from circulation, centralizing Bitcoin storage, reducing network fees: all of this may be bringing us closer to disaster.

Michael Saylor convinces investors that his company's shares are much more valuable than Bitcoin. He doesn't believe it himself... And he probably thinks he's fooled everyone. However, reality can't be fooled. If Bitcoin's price doesn't rise by 2032 due to Michael Saylor's own actions, then it turns out he's fooled himself... 🤷

[Dogedegen]

The success of Michael Saylor will depend on where bitcoin's price might be on the next years. The question I ask for you is do you speculate that bitcoin will be more than $200k on 2035 or less than $50k on 2035?

If everyone speculates that Michael Saylor's issuance of debt is a failure for certain, I reckon you should prepare for lower than $50k. If Saylor fails, he will be forced to dump much of his bitcoins hehehehe.

I don't speculate anything at all, Bitcoin will do what Bitcoin does. If you truly speculated that this will work out with 100% certainty, then you would invest all your money, ask banks for maximum loans and even borrow from friends and family. If you have not done that, you don't believe it will work out with 100% certainty so you doubt it too. Let's not pretend that reasonable stances in risk evaluation are incorrect, they are the most correct way of doing things. By the way, how old are you?

Strategy already got massive success with huge profit in 2024 when Bitcoin market was very hot with many Bitcoin Spot ETF applications, participation of BlackRock to hype the community like this time Bitcoin Spot ETFs will be approved in the USA, which eventually became true. They got huge profit when Bitcoin made its new all time high even before halving on April 20, 2024 but they did not take profit because they were too greedy and continued their leveraging gamble.

These greedy strategies have led them to this temporary loss and a lot of risk now so if they won't stop their leverage game, they will fall to similar situation in a next bear market in years like 2030 or 2031. And if they continue with this greedy strategy, they will fall to similar loss even temporarily in 2034 or 2035 bearish years as they consider Bitcoin is the end game, don't sell their coins, and just continue accumulating more with more risky leverage use.

All what you have written is a lie and has nothing to do with what is going on with Strategy. They were in profit in terms of fiat for a temporary amount of time, and you talk about taking profit in completely wrong generic ways. The whole idea of Strategy is to buy Bitcoin with fiat and not sell Bitcoin to get more fiat. It is not a trading company, it is an investment company that is leveraging everything that it can with a medium amount of risk to buy Bitcoin. If they sell Bitcoin just because they are in profit in fiat terms, it will start the collapse of the whole idea. Please do some research before writing stuff like this, you don't understand at all what they are doing.

What, in my opinion, is Michael Saylor's problem? He understands that the modern financial system is rotten to the core. However, he doesn't realize that it has already poisoned his mind. Michael Saylor is also a product of the modern financial system. That's why he is now taking actions that fatally worsen the situation with Bitcoin's decentralization. Removing Bitcoin from circulation, centralizing Bitcoin storage, reducing network fees: all of this may be bringing us closer to disaster.

I liked your post until you wrote this. You are basically blaming someone for being able to tap into a lot of money and acquire a lot of Bitcoin. If you can't acquire a lot, don't blame others for trying to do so that just does not make sense. Also, removing Bitcoin from circulation is a good thing. There is plenty of Bitcoin on exchanges, and even more fake Bitcoin on ETFs. We would all be better off if the exchanges were near dry as that would limit the possibility of using such manipulations.

Michael Saylor convinces investors that his company's shares are much more valuable than Bitcoin. He doesn't believe it himself... And he probably thinks he's fooled everyone. However, reality can't be fooled. If Bitcoin's price doesn't rise by 2032 due to Michael Saylor's own actions, then it turns out he's fooled himself... 🤷

There are investors who never want to touch Bitcoin directly for whatever reason, and for them these shares are more valuable than Bitcoin that is why they buy them. They do not need convincing by anyone, they know what they are doing. They are not people who pretend to be investors and traders like here or on Twitter, pretending to be experts while having no personal success compared to those that they criticize..

[HelliumZ]

Michael Saylor says he will not sell any Bitcoin in his lifetime, meaning he will only buy, although this seems baseless to me, especially if he does not sell Bitcoin, then who will he hand over his Bitcoin to when he dies. However, the way he is buying Bitcoin, it does not seem like he will ever sell his Bitcoin. In the last two weeks, Michael Saylor has bought over 35,000 Bitcoins and his target is to establish himself as the highest individual holder, leaving behind the creator of Bitcoin, Satoshi.

[Free Market Capitalist]

In the last two weeks, Michael Saylor has bought over 35,000 Bitcoins and his target is to establish himself as the highest individual holder, leaving behind the creator of Bitcoin, Satoshi.

I'm already getting used to this. Reading nonsense that has something to do with reality, but is nothing more than nonsense. Someone who doesn't know much about the subject might believe what you say, but those of us who do understand it won't.

The 37,437 bitcoins he has purchased over the past two weeks were not bought in his personal capacity; he purchased them on behalf of and for the company, Strategy.

That has nothing to do with the bitcoins he holds personally—at least 17,732 of them—which would place him fourth behind Satoshi, the Winklevoss twins, and Tim Draper.