The lower the price goes, the less risky it is to buy Bitcoins. Is this phrase true?
I believe in general yes, but all depends on your time horizon.
Until now, Bitcoin was always in a long term uptrend. This meant basically that every dip and bear market was an opportunity. While a bull market could be always a trap -- if you bought in at the top, waiting for even more returns, you could lose in the short term.
In general I think those who refused to buy at $125k were not wrong. For many reasons this was a very risky point to buy. The price had been going up for almost 3 years, and historical bull markets were never longer than that.
But is it a good idea to buy now in the 80-90k area?Let's see: Price can obviously go up and down or run sideways
But what counts are the probabilities.
For the following reasons I think that a price about 80-85k could be a decent opportunity:
- Bitcoin's volatility is
continuously lowering. It is thus unlikely, if no extreme even (black swan) happens, that we will see another ~80% dip, and even a ~70% dip could be already out of reach. We're already down around 35%. So you have already a decent discount even if the bearish trend continues some months more.
- A price about a third under the previous ATH in the worst case meant you had to wait 2 years to make a profit again. For example: if you bought in early 2022 for 45k (a third below 70k), this price was reached again in late 2023.
- There were intermediate dips in longer-term bull markets too which also lost ~30-40%. The worst one in recent years was the 65% dip in 2019 to early 2020, followed by the 50% in mid-2021, and several ~30% dips in 2024 and 2025.
How would I thus consider the probabilities for the evolution of the next year?
- 30% that we will have a heavily bearish next year. I would consider everything significantly (10% less) below the 2021 ATH (69k) as "heavily bearish". In short: a fall below 60k. This could happen for example if Strategy really runs into difficulties (unlikely in 2025/26, but may become a fear for 2028+). Or if another big 2022 style hack occurs. Or if Tether falls.
- 25% lightly bearish scenarios, like a dip into the 60-75k territory and then a very slow recovery.
- 25% that the bull market will continue and until early 2026 we'll see 100k+ prices again.
- 20% of a sideways scenario, either in the current region (around 75-90ish k) or a bit higher (e.g. around 100k). The argument for this scenario is that there may be neither overwhelmingly positive nor negative trends in adoption. And it would be basically a continuation of the lowering volatility pattern.
Now what does that mean? Is 80-85k an opportunity to buy or not?Only in the "heavily bearish" scenario a buy in the 80k region is really a loss in the mid-term. And even then, it may be enough to simply wait again 1-2 years until the price recovers, if the patterns of previous cycles repeat. And remind: you didn't buy at 125k but already 30-35% lower! So you very likely won't lose "everything" even if there is another deep 70%+ bear market.
In all other scenarios, the biggest part of the crash risk is already gone. You may suffer some losses, but probably not more than 20%, and it's also quite likely that these losses will be temporary.
And in the bullish scenario you may have "won the lottery": you got perhaps the best price forever or for a very long time.
Conclusion:- 80k is
in my opinion a quite decent buying price. It is not free of risks. But much less risky than buying at >110k was.
- If you don't want to gamble that much, DCA is always a good option too. And if you didn't DCA in the "bubble phase" over 100k, perhaps now is a good moment to begin.
(Disclaimer: This is a personal opinion and not investment advice. You may come to different conclusions doing analysis, and that's okay!)
PS: I'm especially interested in different approaches to the calculation of probabilities of bearish and bullish scenarios.
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