All previous three halving cycles were almost the same - how this is possible? ?

[JaanusRaim]

Hi!

I have a big question. How can the price movements of all the previous three halving cycles be almost exactly the same? How it can be that the markets do not learn?
If the fourth cycle will be in the same line, then it could be very easy to forecast the future BTC prices.... 2026 will be the year of huge BTC price decline (just as were 2014, 2018 and 2022 - the only three BTC price decline years in the whole 17 year history), at the end of 2026 the BTC price will be around 50 000 usd. The next three years 2027, 2028 and 2029 will be bullish again and at the end of 2029 the BTC price will be around 170 000 usd 

This forecasting ability would be like in the real sciences (not as in the social sciences where the objects under research will turn against any model and theory).

[shinratensei_]

Could be a self fulfilling propechy? people like pattern and people like to follow a pattern and therefore people doing things based on things that happened previous cycle.
I was also having the idea that history doesn't repeat but rhyme. Well ithese past few cycles have been a repeat.

If anyone just followed the same playbook from the past bullrun, they would have become rich easily.

[adaseb]

Yeah they were very similar and its scary how accurate that was. I remember during the 3rd cycle, thinking that there is no way it will peak the first 2 cycles, and it was almost exactly close. The amount of days from low to new ATH and then from ATH to pivot low was very accurate.

The current cycle we are in right now also seemed to fall in the same amount of days as before, if its to repeat then we would bottom out sometime in Oct 2026. One thing that is not consistent is the amount that the price goes up, going from $30 to $1000 was easy, so was $1000 to $20000 and later from $20000 to $70000 but now we got a huge market cap and we wont be 3x or 2x bitcoins price anymore. There is just way too much sell pressure from a single coin that it requires multiple amount of new retail buyers than before. But everything else aligns from the prior 3 cycles.

[rat03gopoh]

I have a big question. How can the price movements of all the previous three halving cycles be almost exactly the same? How it can be that the markets do not learn?

If the session range refers to each halving, didn't there happen ATH 2 times in the previous cycle, or what they call a mini bullrun? Therefore, I disagree that this theory is still valid. The crypto market used to be much smaller and much easier to manipulate. Unfortunately, to this day, most people are stuck with cyclical bias and the same old narrative.

[Free Market Capitalist]

Hi!

I have a big question. How can the price movements of all the previous three halving cycles be almost exactly the same?

They weren't.

How it can be that the markets do not learn?

That question is BS.

If the fourth cycle will be in the same line, then it could be very easy to forecast the future BTC prices.... 2026 will be the year of huge BTC price decline (just as were 2014, 2018 and 2022 - the only three BTC price decline years in the whole 17 year history), at the end of 2026 the BTC price will be around 50 000 usd. The next three years 2027, 2028 and 2029 will be bullish again and at the end of 2029 the BTC price will be around 170 000 usd 

This forecasting ability would be like in the real sciences (not as in the social sciences where the objects under research will turn against any model and theory).

What we call cycles are human projections; they are not something that has actually been there. We observe the past, project regularities to understand it, and from there we project into the future. Until the future, very often, dismantles those regularities, and then we have to rethink the pattern again. Price behavior is not an algorithm that you can solve independently of what happens in the real world.

[JaanusRaim]

Yeah they were very similar and its scary how accurate that was. I remember during the 3rd cycle, thinking that there is no way it will peak the first 2 cycles, and it was almost exactly close. The amount of days from low to new ATH and then from ATH to pivot low was very accurate.

The current cycle we are in right now also seemed to fall in the same amount of days as before, if its to repeat then we would bottom out sometime in Oct 2026. One thing that is not consistent is the amount that the price goes up, going from $30 to $1000 was easy, so was $1000 to $20000 and later from $20000 to $70000 but now we got a huge market cap and we wont be 3x or 2x bitcoins price anymore. There is just way too much sell pressure from a single coin that it requires multiple amount of new retail buyers than before. But everything else aligns from the prior 3 cycles.

Of cause the amount that the price goes up was not consistent, but the decreasing rate was consistent or at least highly predictable. In the first cycle it was 600 (from lowest point to the highest point, from 2 usd to 1200 usd), in the second cycle it was 75 (from 200 usd to 15 000 usd), in the third cycle it was 20 (from 3000 usd to 60 000 usd), the forth cycle bull ran may be not over but IF it is over then it was 7.5 (from 17 000 usd to 130 000 usd).

600 ... 75 ... 20 ... 7.5 ... 3.5?

 

[JaanusRaim]

Hi!

I have a big question. How can the price movements of all the previous three halving cycles be almost exactly the same?

They weren't.

How it can be that the markets do not learn?

That question is BS.

If the fourth cycle will be in the same line, then it could be very easy to forecast the future BTC prices.... 2026 will be the year of huge BTC price decline (just as were 2014, 2018 and 2022 - the only three BTC price decline years in the whole 17 year history), at the end of 2026 the BTC price will be around 50 000 usd. The next three years 2027, 2028 and 2029 will be bullish again and at the end of 2029 the BTC price will be around 170 000 usd 

This forecasting ability would be like in the real sciences (not as in the social sciences where the objects under research will turn against any model and theory).

What we call cycles are human projections; they are not something that has actually been there. We observe the past, project regularities to understand it, and from there we project into the future. Until the future, very often, dismantles those regularities, and then we have to rethink the pattern again. Price behavior is not an algorithm that you can solve independently of what happens in the real world.

I agree that the "science" I produce here is BS.  The only excuse is that we are in the Child Board now and are allowed to play and joke here (and sometimes some very useful things will emerge in the joke)

[Cryptohygenic]

Could be a self fulfilling propechy? people like pattern and people like to follow a pattern and therefore people doing things based on things that happened previous cycle.
I was also having the idea that history doesn't repeat but rhyme. Well ithese past few cycles have been a repeat.

A lot of analysts had also followed the historical trends in the past 3 seasons and was hopeful that history will keep repeating itself after giving the repetition of season 1 to 2 and then was so convinced that the trends has become an accustom to the bitcoin market.
But then Comes season 4 which was likely in these alignment with the historical trends but on of a sudden, it happened that history in volatility can not keep repeating itself which then should be accorded that those 3 past seasons that seem repetitive was just coincidence rhymes like you may call It.

If anyone just followed the same playbook from the past bullrun, they would have become rich easily.

And those who are good at market and economy studies would had been hitting the jackpot at every single of their trading but the uncertainty of viability will always kick you outside the lines.

[el kaka22]

The self fulfilling prophecy part is 90% true. I mean I can't be guaranteed and say it's 100% true, but I think that's the most of it. People see that every four years it goes up, so they buy, and because they think that and buy, the price of course goes up, and then they think after every bull run starts a bear run, so they sell when they peak, and get out, and that is why it goes down.

People literally sell and buy according to what they think will happen and because they buy and sell because of it the price moves because of it as well. If people didn't reacted beforehand, then the price wouldn't be like this. It's okay though, we are reaching good levels, bitcoin is growing to a national and governmental level, and that will definitely change some stuff because those won't believe in four year cycle and will hold and when that happens, with governments, strategic reserves and ETF's, we are going to see lesser of this.

[JaanusRaim]

At the end of 2014 the Bitcoin price was 200 USD (fall from 1200 USD at the end of 2013)
15 fold difference
at the end of 2018 the Bitcoin price was 3000 USD (fall from 19000 USD at the end of 2017)
6 fold difference
at the end of 2022 the Bitcoin price was 17000 USD (fall from 60000 USD at the end of 2021)
3 fold difference ?
at the end of 2026 the Bitcoin price will be 50000 USD (fall from 130000 at the end of 2025) ? 

[FiliOrangGila]

Perhaps the next halving bull run in 2028 will see Bitcoin's price reach 200k dollars, not just 170k dollars, and for this year until next year, Bitcoin will experience a bearish trend or a downward trend. Although every decline will definitely rise again, the trend in 2026 will reach the lowest price point before starting the next bull run session leading up to the 2028 halving.
still possible same

[X-ray]

At the end of 2014 the Bitcoin price was 200 USD (fall from 1200 USD at the end of 2013)
15 fold difference
at the end of 2018 the Bitcoin price was 3000 USD (fall from 19000 USD at the end of 2017)
6 fold difference
at the end of 2022 the Bitcoin price was 17000 USD (fall from 60000 USD at the end of 2021)
3 fold difference ?
at the end of 2026 the Bitcoin price will be 50000 USD (fall from 130000 at the end of 2025) ?  

That might seem like logical pattern but then you take into account other factor such as micro strategy selling and then the possibility of even lower bottom for the next bearish cycle appear which could even trigger domino effects.

The worst case scenario would be bitcoin going back to 40k again, although I also hold bitcoin, I just want to acknowledge the risk. On the other hand it's a good news that even after dramatic dump the price can still hold strong at relatively higher price mark if that scenario happens.

[free-bit.co.in]

At the end of 2014 the Bitcoin price was 200 USD (fall from 1200 USD at the end of 2013)
15 fold difference
at the end of 2018 the Bitcoin price was 3000 USD (fall from 19000 USD at the end of 2017)
6 fold difference
at the end of 2022 the Bitcoin price was 17000 USD (fall from 60000 USD at the end of 2021)
3 fold difference ?
at the end of 2026 the Bitcoin price will be 50000 USD (fall from 130000 at the end of 2025) ? 

I also predict that the bottom of bitcoin in the upcoming bear market will also be around $50k, but this depends. I mean things have changed and bitcoin is quite dependent and driven by macro news. In case the economy falls into recession next year due to geopolitical instability, the AI ​​bubble will burst and lead to a global crisis. I believe things could have been much worse. Bitcoin could drop to $40k or $30k, which is entirely possible if the economy goes into recession.

[Yaunfitda]

"Almost" was the keyword here, but then again, it is why it was called cycle in the first place? The only difference here is that we have seen a new all time high prior to the halving event itself. So that is the first, but if we compare the prices maybe they could be the same. However, it's the bear and the bulls trying to pull each other and making that price range. Nevertheless, it teach us a lesson that in every previous cycle, we can look at it and maybe predict what is going to happen in the future. But for sure there are pundits who will say that past events are not a accurate showing of what the future brings. But in any case, the OP put up a good picture about cycles and past historical logs and what's not.

[allthebitandbobs]

The self fulfilling prophecy part is 90% true. I mean I can't be guaranteed and say it's 100% true, but I think that's the most of it.

But 90% still say that you are very bullish about it, lol. As for me, I can only say that it is 50/50 because it is only just a self-prophecy anyway.

People see that every four years it goes up, so they buy, and because they think that and buy, the price of course goes up,

If that was true then why we had experienced a stagnation or a decline instead as on what the OP have said? @rat03gopoh must be right. This can also be because the market before is only small and then there is also no or only small big players involved. I think it is still a good thing that they joined here. Pretty sure they still have their own contributions.

People literally sell and buy according to what they think will happen and because they buy and sell because of it the price moves because of it as well.

That is great. If they want something, they also do an action about it. No wonder why what they wish for can also come. For those who doesn't believe in a four year cycle, then they may not be here with us, although a '4 year cycle' is not the only indication for a pump. So, it is possible that some are still here hodling.

[sunsilk]

That actually why Bitcoin is cyclic. These are the cycles where a pattern is seen and by 2026, you already know what might come.

But we'll get to see if it's still being followed but with how things did for this year, I think that the 4-year cycle won't change.

People like CZ mentioned that there might be some changes and the usual 4-year cycle won't be followed. I'd say, we don't know and we'll have to see.

[Gost ms]

As you mentioned, the decline has happened in the past. But there is no guarantee that it will happen every time. This principle is always used by a trader. A trader analyzes the previous market and makes a guess about what may happen in the future.

But what you have predicted may never happen. Because currently Bitcoin has become a very big market. As we can see currently, big companies and many big countries have started accepting Bitcoin. If this happens in the market, many countries and many big companies can suffer a lot. But yes, there can be small declines in the market, as we are currently seeing in the Bitcoin market. But the extent of the decline that you mentioned may not happen. But it is impossible to say what will happen in the market.

[SmartGold01]

They are not exactly the same as you may think because if they where they we can presumably know what the results and outcome of Bitcoin would be, but this people still speculates about the price without a real facts to show that the price must surely or definitely result in x price by y day or months. Drawing back your attention again, if people noticed that everything where the same they could had easily predicted about the previous ATH but none where able to give exact price instead some where projecting of 180k where most people where say to 500k.

[JaanusRaim]

In the silver market the similar pattern has emerged in last six weeks - every next closing price (Friday evening) was ca 5 Euros per ounce higher than the previous one. Seems easy to predict

[Darker45]

Because people looked for patterns, created one where there isn't any, and eventually behaved according to them. As a result, the patterns are established.

I'm afraid you're just too confident in the way you're appreciating the charts as if the market exists in a vacuum. There are fundamentals that could affect the market anytime. The fact that we hit an ATH shortly before the halving illustrates how other factors which are largely unpredictable could determine the next direction.

I don't agree that we'll get to see $50,000 next year and $170,000 will only come at the end of 2029.