Jannik Sinner - What happens if you gamble 1 USD in each bet (2019)?

[bitbollo]

As we know, the top player in ATP tennis is the italian Jannik Sinner.
It's real interesting to see the evolution in odds offered and in real term if it was real convenient to gamble on him.

I take all odds available in this database for matches that he plays in 2019 (60 matches)
https://www.diretta.it/giocatore/sinner-jannik/6HdC3z4H/risultati/
Odds are taken from bet365 and are only pre-matches.

At the end of the year if you had gambled 1 USD for each match you will achieve...11,94 USD as profit!
Considering an initial budget of 100 USD, you will earn 11,94% as pure ROI !
(In general, just for comparison, good tipsters are able to achieve between 5-10% of profit in a year)

What did you think? It is a good result? This profit will increase in the next years ?
Share your opinion...

[Botnake]

Is that the odds to win straight up on the moneyline?

And about that 60 matches thing, I really have no idea how you got 1194 from there. can you show the actual calculation step by step? right now I honestly don’t understand the info you shared, so pardon me, but I need to see the math on how you came up with those numbers.

[Alvin_talk]

What did you think? It is a good result? This profit will increase in the next years ?
Share your opinion...

This will be great for betto who saw this opportunity and invested that year but I don't think the profit will increase in years rather it will keep going lower as his form increases.

As at 2018-2019, Sinner J. was not yet established to this level he is today, that is you can consider him as an underdog back then, so it is not surprising that bookmakers priced him with higher odds, I can bet that if you get a recent data the odds will be way lower because he is now the top player in ATP.  The problem around this is whenever a player become an ATP top seed the odds are usually tightened by bookmakers so I wouldn't advice anyone to use this analysis to gamble.

[mak013]

~
What did you think? It is a good result? This profit will increase in the next years ?
Share your opinion...

I think that if you`d skipped some matches that he had to lose with 100% guarantee, you profit would be greater.
But i can say that it is interesting idea for someone, who is crazy of some kind of sport with single player. You can find a new star and search all his matches. The odds would be nice, and if you is right(and if you skip some events) the profit must be really good.

[Free Market Capitalist]

At the end of the year if you had gambled 1 USD for each match you will achieve...11,94 USD as profit!
Considering an initial budget of 100 USD, you will earn 11,94% as pure ROI !
(In general, just for comparison, good tipsters are able to achieve between 5-10% of profit in a year)

What did you think? It is a good result? This profit will increase in the next years ?
Share your opinion...

No. For that, I'll put that $100 in the S&P 500, which will give me more or less the same without doing anything. I understand that those who like sports betting may see it as positive for its entertainment value, it's not all about profit.

As at 2018-2019, Sinner J. was not yet established to this level he is today, that is you can consider him as an underdog back then, so it is not surprising that bookmakers priced him with higher odds, I can bet that if you get a recent data the odds will be way lower because he is now the top player in ATP.  The problem around this is whenever a player become an ATP top seed the odds are usually tightened by bookmakers so I wouldn't advice anyone to use this analysis to gamble.

That's the problem I've seen people talk about with sports betting, that the niches where some bettors had an edge in the past are no longer there because the bookmakers adjust the odds, and bettors have no choice but to find new niches or become unprofitable.

[aoluain]

Interesting one bitbollo.
Another fan here for Sinner ^{as you know}

TBH I havent bet that much on Sinner this season gone, the odds are really low
most times. You theory is definitely something to consider though.

Looking at his win/loss ratio its very impressive - 58/6

I would start with $100 and on the first match next season bet $50 win.
With the winnings I would wager them with the $50 again, and so on. All the time
keeping $50 in reserve in case he loses so I can start again. I think the ROI would
be greater this way.

I would also not bet on a match with Alcaraz.

The same tactic could be employed with Alcaraz too, his win/loss is 71/9!

[Kasabus]

(In general, just for comparison, good tipsters are able to achieve between 5-10% of profit in a year)

What do you mean by this? Just for clarification, are you talking about tipsters or bettors?

Because if you mean tipsters, I don’t think there’s really a limit to how much they can earn, especially if a lot of people subscribe to their service. There’s no risk on their side since they just give the picks and collect the premium.

But if you’re talking about bettors being profitable, they’re the ones actually risking money and trying to profit long-term. And honestly, if the goal is just 5 to 10 percent, I’d rather start a small business, like lending, where I can charge around 10 percent a month and even earn extra from late-payment penalties. 

[Agbamoni]

What did you think? It is a good result? This profit will increase in the next years ?
Share your opinion...

Yes, this is a good result since the player has been consistent in his performance for a long time. But we cannot know if he will continue like that in the next few years to come, so the profit may or may not increase. Jannik Sinner is 24 years old currently.

As time goes on, he will be closer to 30. Two things will happen. First, people will be familiar with his type of play and find a way to win him, while the more he ages, the more his performance drops.

[bitbollo]

@mak013
The calculation is simple. I take all money line available from 2019 (it's the first match against Alcaraz).
For each match loss = -1 USD. In case of a win = odd value (since I am gambling x1)
Some matches of 2019 have no odds...

...

There are no guys that are really able to make more profits of this and share their bets. If you find it (and it can be verified) please share with me.

@aoluain
now this is not the same. you cant achieve these huge odds by gambling on him

@Free Market Capitalist
"The S&P 500's total return in 2019 was approximately 31.49%"
Its absolutely huge, and easy but this is interesting to see that gamblers could achieve nice profits if they gamble very wisely

[Kasabus]

...

There are no guys that are really able to make more profits of this and share their bets. If you find it (and it can be verified) please share with me.

If that’s what you believe then I’m just curious where you got that 5–10 percent figure you mentioned in the OP. For me, numbers matter a lot, so I’m assuming you brought that up because you have something to back it up, or is it just your estimate?

[bitbollo]

There are many gamblers able to beat these values but I have never seen some one share on public - for free - such great abilities.

Its a huge return (on total you gamble) earn a 12% . I have seen many times mentioned as a good estimate for a "decent tipster"...
You can easily make a living or having a nice extra in your pockets... No one will share for free these insights in my opinion.

In 2019 Sinner was already a strong player but not for sure able to compete at higher level... I would update this topic with all other years up to 2025...