BTC Sentiment Poll for December

[pooya87]

I don't have high hopes only because of how destabilized the world and the global economy has become all thanks to all the wars the US regime has been starting over the past year, the last one being the attempted invasion of the oil-richest country in the world called Venezuela. We even have the occupied Japan talking about wanting to build nukes to fight the US proxy war with China.

I mean the world is getting crazier every hour LOL... this is a not a situation when we can see bitcoin soaring, sadly.

The instability that has arisen in the global economic market has led to the price of Bitcoin being dumped. However, the tariff war has further destabilized the economic market, where businesses have been facing the most pressure. The wars and tariffs of various countries have driven the global market crazy, which is why the price of Bitcoin is normally below $100k.

The worst part is that the descent in madness is speeding up! In the latest craziness, over in Europe they are beginning to make military service mandatory. For example Germany just passed the bill for conscription and people are protesting against this decision in Germany as we speak. I believe France did similar recently too.

This is going to make the recession even worse... They are already out of money and they have been borrowing money creating more debt for all that militarism (proxy war with Russia, now in more of Europe!).

[ultrloa]

I don't have high hopes only because of how destabilized the world and the global economy has become all thanks to all the wars the US regime has been starting over the past year, the last one being the attempted invasion of the oil-richest country in the world called Venezuela. We even have the occupied Japan talking about wanting to build nukes to fight the US proxy war with China.

I mean the world is getting crazier every hour LOL... this is a not a situation when we can see bitcoin soaring, sadly.

The instability that has arisen in the global economic market has led to the price of Bitcoin being dumped. However, the tariff war has further destabilized the economic market, where businesses have been facing the most pressure. The wars and tariffs of various countries have driven the global market crazy, which is why the price of Bitcoin is normally below $100k.

The worst part is that the descent in madness is speeding up! In the latest craziness, over in Europe they are beginning to make military service mandatory. For example Germany just passed the bill for conscription and people are protesting against this decision in Germany as we speak. I believe France did similar recently too.

This is going to make the recession even worse... They are already out of money and they have been borrowing money creating more debt for all that militarism (proxy war with Russia, now in more of Europe!).

That action they made sparks people outrage since instead of encouraging their citizens to became a volunteer reservist they make it mandatory which create lots of trouble.

But so far information shared online is France ask it voluntarily, but if there's rumors they are forcing their citizens well maybe there's something like that happening in real time.

And yeah this could make the recession even more worse because spending to much on their defense can strain their national budget, but they always say that this is for their security and they are preparing for Russia's aggressive actions.

[Tungbulu]

I don't have high hopes only because of how destabilized the world and the global economy has become all thanks to all the wars the US regime has been starting over the past year, the last one being the attempted invasion of the oil-richest country in the world called Venezuela. We even have the occupied Japan talking about wanting to build nukes to fight the US proxy war with China.

I mean the world is getting crazier every hour LOL... this is a not a situation when we can see bitcoin soaring, sadly.

The instability that has arisen in the global economic market has led to the price of Bitcoin being dumped. However, the tariff war has further destabilized the economic market, where businesses have been facing the most pressure. The wars and tariffs of various countries have driven the global market crazy, which is why the price of Bitcoin is normally below $100k.

The worst part is that the descent in madness is speeding up! In the latest craziness, over in Europe they are beginning to make military service mandatory. For example Germany just passed the bill for conscription and people are protesting against this decision in Germany as we speak. I believe France did similar recently too.

This is going to make the recession even worse... They are already out of money and they have been borrowing money creating more debt for all that militarism (proxy war with Russia, now in more of Europe!).

Even if it’s somewhat understandable that the reason why the government might want some extra boot on the ground is strictly due to rising insecurity and the current unpredictability in global politics, it feels more like a slippery slope, especially for the young citizens who will be directly affected by this. They’ll be like, “Yeah Great, just now that I’m about to get started with my career, I just might be drafted instead”.
Even the Nigerian government threatened to implement such measures too due to the insecurity that’s almost spiraling out of control.

For an economy that’s already shaking (and even in some economies that’s solid), implementing such a system like a mandatory service, especially in the military might do more harm than good, as it might just force the screws to become even more tighter than it already is.
Because there’s gonna be very fewer young people in schools or work, and this will only create more uncertainty and even if the motive behind the action might be somewhat good, it’ll definitely give off the impression that the government are backtracking on social and economic stability.

And even if the main motive for this move is strictly defense and readiness, it’ll definitely make the system and the ordinary day to day work more difficult, Yeah security is important, but there’s more to an economy than just maintaining security stability.

[Danica22]

Well most people were expecting another all time high for bitcoin price this year and in this month which in my opinion doesn't seem possible.

However this doesn't mean that bull run is over. I think we will have the bitcoin peak in Jan or Feb next year and there are many fundamental updates that favour this opinion. This includes end of QT and probable interest rate cuts in the next FOMC meeting and most importantly QE beginning any time soon.

They stopped QT from December 1st and a rate cut on the 10th is almost certain, with 87% expectation that the Fed will cut rates. But I think these two news will not be enough to make a big difference to the market because the economy in general is still very uncertain.

For QE, this is the most anticipated catalyst, but when the Fed will start is still a big question. There is no information or indication of that yet, and just because they stopped QT doesn't mean they will start QE anytime soon. Don't be confused.

The future is unpredictable, so it is not wrong to say that the bull run is not over yet. But if we're being honest, we're already in a bear market.

[Wind_FURY]

After recent events, in hindsight, are we in the first innings of a bear market?

It's probably the bear market, BUT I still voted NO. Why? Because personally, and I already posted it, that I would give it until January - the LATEST month before truly accepting that it's the bear market.

Although, because of the four year cycle, that probability is high that it is indeed a bear market. That's actually GOOD for us plebs. That's another Golden Opportunity.

[tokeweed]

Hey guys, how's everybody doing with the market?    The vibe hasn't really been the greatest but we go on and try to do our best.  And I think the best thing to do right now is...  Nothing. 

Anyway the is at 22 for yes and 6 votes for no.  Just shows that the sentiment is bearish and the voters prolly have stabled up too.  Lol.

Just a couple more days or so to vote before I lock the poll.  Stay safe out there.

[tokeweed]

Last day to get your votes in before I lock the poll guys...

Anyway, is it just me, or do you guys also feel like a serious bounce that'll make BTC break out from the range where it is now and will act like it's gonna trend up near the all time high?

Dunno but 94k is looking like some kind of psychological resistance that needs to be broken through rn.

[tottong]

With the current market conditions, it is indeed very difficult to predict the price of bitcoin, especially as it is approaching the end of the year and we must be clever in analyzing market movements, especially bitcoin, after a decline of up to $ 82 thousand and we hope that in the end this month it can return to breaking through $ 100 thousand, because for this year bitcoin is indeed extraordinary in increasing prices and this all happened beyond our predictions, so whatever happens we make good use of it because there is no involvement in investing, everyone can start even if it starts now.

Testing the $100,000 mark may require strong support, and I see Bitcoin's daily price movement starting to point downward, as is currently happening.
It seems a little more difficult to make a Bitcoin price prediction at this point, and I believe downward pressure remains considerable given the lack of clarity regarding the Fed's interest rate cut policy. This may also be due to the validation of the four-year cycle regarding the consequences of the cycle's completion before entering a new direction for Bitcoin's future trajectory.

This is just some of my analysis, considering two methods for analyzing the current downward movement. While this isn't a compelling reason for Bitcoin's current decline, I see this trend as the basis for my analysis.

[Dave1]

Last day to get your votes in before I lock the poll guys...

Anyway, is it just me, or do you guys also feel like a serious bounce that'll make BTC break out from the range where it is now and will act like it's gonna trend up near the all time high?

Dunno but 94k is looking like some kind of psychological resistance that needs to be broken through rn.

Yeah, it's the barrier for most investors right now. Maybe it they wont' see it, we could really say that we are in the bearish season already, although I believed that we are indeed when the price can't get over to $100k and then we have the market going down hard.

I do understand that others might gauge everything next year. Btu for me, it's better to really prepared and think that we are in the bearish or it has started already so that we can adjust our strategy and the mindset shifting that thing's are harder. But then again, we could start saving and stacking sats as the worst cycle is coming.

[Minor Miner]

I do understand that others might gauge everything next year. Btu for me, it's better to really prepared and think that we are in the bearish or it has started already so that we can adjust our strategy and the mindset shifting that thing's are harder. But then again, we could start saving and stacking sats as the worst cycle is coming.

We dont need to force ourselves into thinking that we are already in a bear market because there's still no certainty about that. But the market is unpredictable, and you're right, it's best to be well prepared for the worst-case scenarios. Don't be stubborn and overconfident in our biased predictions, otherwise we will pay the price if things don't turn out as expected.

History has shown that investors who survive and profit are often not those who accurately predict trends, but rather those who have a plan, know how to manage risk, and adapt to the market.

Bear season hasn't arrived yet, but be prepared and ready to face it if it does.

[Out of mind]

By mid-December, the Bitcoin market had fallen sharply, touching $85k, although it now looks like the market is heading towards a green candle. Although most analysts believe that the market is still likely to rise, we see little chance of an upward move based on the market situation. If the Bitcoin market had been around $100k by the end of December, there might have been some upside momentum at the start of the new year. But right now, the market has fallen and the candles are red, so it is not yet certain whether the market will fall further or recover completely. I think the situation in the Bitcoin market is not very favorable at the moment, as it could move towards a decline at any moment and the price could fall.

[Powerjumboo]

By mid-December, the Bitcoin market had fallen sharply, touching $85k, although it now looks like the market is heading towards a green candle. Although most analysts believe that the market is still likely to rise, we see little chance of an upward move based on the market situation. If the Bitcoin market had been around $100k by the end of December, there might have been some upside momentum at the start of the new year. But right now, the market has fallen and the candles are red, so it is not yet certain whether the market will fall further or recover completely. I think the situation in the Bitcoin market is not very favorable at the moment, as it could move towards a decline at any moment and the price could fall.

The market situation is not clear at the moment because Bitcoin is being dumped and pumped, but no matter how much dumping and pumping, the Bitcoin market is not going below $80,000 and is not going above $95,000. I also expected Bitcoin to be between $100,000 and $110,000 this December, but looking at the market situation, it seems that Bitcoin will probably not be able to cross $100,000 this December. If the market breaks $80,000 and moves towards $79,000 and $75,000, then there may be a dangerous moment in the market, but if the market goes up, then in the new year, then it may be possible to hope for new ATH.

[aylabadia05]

By mid-December, the Bitcoin market had fallen sharply, touching $85k, although it now looks like the market is heading towards a green candle. Although most analysts believe that the market is still likely to rise, we see little chance of an upward move based on the market situation. If the Bitcoin market had been around $100k by the end of December, there might have been some upside momentum at the start of the new year. But right now, the market has fallen and the candles are red, so it is not yet certain whether the market will fall further or recover completely.

With December already halfway through, and about two weeks and two days remaining until 2026, based on calendar days, trading margin data still doesn't guarantee a positive December, which is recorded in monthly returns.
It's increasingly difficult to return to $100,000 if market sentiment remains as it is. This doesn't mean we should be pessimistic, as the current market price situation is encouraging investors to set aside money to add Bitcoin to their wallets, albeit in small amounts, given the year-end holiday season.

I think the situation in the Bitcoin market is not very favorable at the moment, as it could move towards a decline at any moment and the price could fall.

For traders, this may not be profitable, but for long-term investors, the market situation may be different. They may not even care much and let it continue.

[bangjoe]

After recent events, in hindsight, are we in the first innings of a bear market?

It's probably the bear market, BUT I still voted NO. Why? Because personally, and I already posted it, that I would give it until January - the LATEST month before truly accepting that it's the bear market.

Although, because of the four year cycle, that probability is high that it is indeed a bear market. That's actually GOOD for us plebs. That's another Golden Opportunity.

I waited longer than you, I waited until February to make sure that whether we entered a bear market or not, this is my job because based on calculations there is a possibility of a turning point to the upside to receive bullish again and that usually does not last long only a few weeks after entering into a true bear zone.

Many people believe that QE will be carried out and can pump liquidity, this is a great hope for the market to increase in a bullish direction, bitcoin can still bounce back if the macroeconomic structure is supportive, but there is new bad news that can make us confused, BOJ raises interest rates and this could be a bad potential, seeing that many investors will withdraw their assets / sell / withdraw profits to pay their interest and debt.

[pawel7777]

There's still almost half a month left until the end of the year, but if things stay as they are, we're going to have our third negative month in a row.
If that happens, only a die-hard optimists would believe the bull market is still salvageable.

The only time we had 3 months in red during a bull market was in the 2021 cycle, in the period between the first and the second top. In this cycle, we have had two tops already, or even 3 if we count the spike after the approval of spot ETFs. So if the bull run is to return, that would mean we would have a triple (or quadruple) top pattern.

[m2017]

By mid-December, the Bitcoin market had fallen sharply, touching $85k, although it now looks like the market is heading towards a green candle. Although most analysts believe that the market is still likely to rise, we see little chance of an upward move based on the market situation. If the Bitcoin market had been around $100k by the end of December, there might have been some upside momentum at the start of the new year. But right now, the market has fallen and the candles are red, so it is not yet certain whether the market will fall further or recover completely. I think the situation in the Bitcoin market is not very favorable at the moment, as it could move towards a decline at any moment and the price could fall.

Bitcoin needs fuel to grow. What preconditions could arise that would stimulate growth? I personally can't think of any. However, there are countless preconditions for a further decline: the end of the year, when institutional investors are "extracting" profits to demonstrate returns to their investors; the end of the four-year cycle and bullish trend; the lack of positive news that could dramatically impact the market; ordinary holders selling bitcoin as they see its decline, which avalanches further declines; and the approach of the New Year holidays, which means holders will spend money on gifts, vacations, holidays, and travel. Money isn't flowing into the BTC-system, it's being withdrawn, which is precisely what exacerbates the further decline.

[aylabadia05]

There's still almost half a month left until the end of the year, but if things stay as they are, we're going to have our third negative month in a row.
If that happens, only a die-hard optimists would believe the bull market is still salvageable.

The only time we had 3 months in red during a bull market was in the 2021 cycle, in the period between the first and the second top. In this cycle, we have had two tops already, or even 3 if we count the spike after the approval of spot ETFs. So if the bull run is to return, that would mean we would have a triple (or quadruple) top pattern.

It's already December 17th. There are still two weeks to go. If it can break back to $10,000 in the next two weeks, it will further reinforce the fact that price volatility is no longer a taboo.

Not 2021. If Bitcoin's monthly returns are in the red for three months until December 31st, it will be a repeat of 2018.

Despite the many positive events we can never forget, such as the ATH of $126,000.

[YUriy1991]

The market situation is not clear at the moment because Bitcoin is being dumped and pumped, but no matter how much dumping and pumping, the Bitcoin market is not going below $80,000 and is not going above $95,000. I also expected Bitcoin to be between $100,000 and $110,000 this December, but looking at the market situation, it seems that Bitcoin will probably not be able to cross $100,000 this December. If the market breaks $80,000 and moves towards $79,000 and $75,000, then there may be a dangerous moment in the market, but if the market goes up, then in the new year, then it may be possible to hope for new ATH.

I agree with what you said. After hitting several ATHs this year, Bitcoin will find momentum to reach another ATH in the future. However, I don't think it will happen anytime soon. The market desperately needs community and wider support to buy Bitcoin when the exchange market price is in the red to boost the price and encourage it to grow again. With community and public support, the market will recover next year and then slowly grow until it reaches its ATH again.

[348Judah]

For now, we may assume that December could be the only month to give the best interpretation for the bullrun season to be over or continud by next year, because it has been expected that we have all time high possibly at anytime or sooner, this should also set the expectation for the month of December to be high, because we are in much anticipation for seing the market above $126,000 by the end of the month.

[Kelward]

By mid-December, the Bitcoin market had fallen sharply, touching $85k, although it now looks like the market is heading towards a green candle. Although most analysts believe that the market is still likely to rise, we see little chance of an upward move based on the market situation. If the Bitcoin market had been around $100k by the end of December, there might have been some upside momentum at the start of the new year. But right now, the market has fallen and the candles are red, so it is not yet certain whether the market will fall further or recover completely. I think the situation in the Bitcoin market is not very favorable at the moment, as it could move towards a decline at any moment and the price could fall.

If we are sincere to ourselves we will admit that this December, so far hasn't made any significant moves to show that it can be a bullish month but it's not yet over and anything can still happen before the new year. I know a couple of holders that were very excited when price hit ATH they were bullish that by December, price would have skyrocketed more to the speculated $150k so they can take some profit to enjoy Christmas. The reality on ground is that price is still struggling to get near $100k, it is only favorable to buyers who believe that we can see something close to or above ATH in the first quarter of 2026. Let us not loose hope totally we might see an upward trend anytime before bear run.