Bitcoin circle and changes in market dynamics

[Barikui1]

Every investor must have their own convictions on the market direction, so don't he wont regret later. When you invest based on what others are saying, and the market direction goes the opposite way, it shows that you don't trust your knowledge on Bitcoin investment. I believe everyone has their investment strategies aligned with their goals, so don't follow others.

It's not entirely wrong to go with the opinion of others if you carried out your own research and finds out that the person is actually right. I am 100% certain that nobody knows it all, so the best possible way to explore this crypto space is to be open to learning new things, but before accepting anything new, try to do your own findings to be sure that you are diluting the right knowledge, because to unlearn the wrong knowledge is even more difficult than learning new thing entirely.
Additional, I believe that everyone has their own area of interest,  so if you want to make quick money from the market, you trade or buy, hoping to sell once the value of Bitcoin appreciate, but if you are actually a long term holder, you buy and accumulate Bitcoin regardless of it current price because you are only thinking long term and how much Bitcoin can skyrocket up to in the future.

[KiaKia]

In my opinion the famous 4-year cycle (not circle) died back in 2020 when the first major global recession took place due to the pandemic and stopped the bitcoin price rally to reach a ATH with a bubble and then burst to crash the market. That cycle ended without finishing and market entered a bear market because of recession (unlike previous cycles which entered bear market because of the bubble).

What we have in 2025 is similar. The rally that should have continued to reach a new ATH with a bubble like the traditional 4-year cycles we are used to in bitcoin market, ended (at least for the time being) because of the ongoing recession which is the result of global conflicts that the US regime keeps starting around the world during the past 3-4 years.

So if we continue rising after this "correction", then we can confidently say the 4-year cycle is still a thing and we can expect a new and high ATH in 2026 but if this "crash" leads to an actual bear market then 2026 could potentially be repetition of first half of 2020 where price goes down because of global economic hardship and recession.

No market cycles are the same but Bitcoin cycles since 2009 have kind of clear fractal that is enough to say Bitcoin market still moves in its own cycle pattern. Time for ATH and bottom can be different as same as price ROIs in different cycle are different too but the patter is quite clear.

Another view.

We can not time the market, can not predict market ATH and bottom but understand about the market cycle, its pattern, average time for reaching ATH to making bottom can help us having better investment plan for our bitcoin accumulation and also withdrawal with profit.

The ROI looks like it's topping out already, that chart is scary as it's no more pointing to the upside, this is what CCW was talking about, that in the coming years the ROI on Bitcoin will be lower, this period Bitcoin brings back 8x from the lows of 15,000, that's still impressive and as someone who understands that Bitcoin is the safest even 5x in 2029 will still be awesome but it's no longer a hidden thing that this chart is looking scary as time goes by and what goes up won't always stay up.

Someone also predicted a bigger flush out that will look close to a reset in 2030, and it will take a very long time before Bitcoin finds it's footing again, either ways for someone who understands this thing called Bitcoin it's going to be a wonderful opportunity again, atleast it's better to risk thousands of dollars on Bitcoin than some altcoins that will die at any time.

Whatever happens in the future Bitcoin will never die, how bigger flush outs might look it's only going to be a massive opportunity to accurate more Bitcoin, I can't even lie I am hoping for a flush out too, I still have this 0.5BTC as target in mind before 2033.

[SmartGold01]

Every investor must have their own convictions on the market direction, so don't he wont regret later. When you invest based on what others are saying, and the market direction goes the opposite way, it shows that you don't trust your knowledge on Bitcoin investment. I believe everyone has their investment strategies aligned with their goals, so don't follow others.

It's not entirely wrong to go with the opinion of others if you carried out your own research and finds out that the person is actually right. I am 100% certain that nobody knows it all, so the best possible way to explore this crypto space is to be open to learning new things, but before accepting anything new, try to do your own findings to be sure that you are diluting the right knowledge, because to unlearn the wrong knowledge is even more difficult than learning new thing entirely.
Additional, I believe that everyone has their own area of interest,  so if you want to make quick money from the market, you trade or buy, hoping to sell once the value of Bitcoin appreciate, but if you are actually a long term holder, you buy and accumulate Bitcoin regardless of it current price because you are only thinking long term and how much Bitcoin can skyrocket up to in the future.

All these are the main reason why we have this forum to have discussion irrespective of how knowledgeable such person could in bitcoin know that we can't get it right on when the price of bitcoin should increase or decrease, instead majority of people are speculating towards the price and that doesn't mean the price must always reflects as the price they said. People are giving their own over view it's either we buy some of their ideals to couples with ours in order to have good outcome on our investment but yet seems there are people who are termed to know it all. However, you are right and we should be that willing to learn the right time at the right time otherwise, very hard to unlearned the wrong things that is learned at the right.

[aysha9853]

I think people are too quick to declare the four year cycle dead, every cycle looked different while it was happening, only in hindsight it looks clean, ETFs and institutions definitely changed the flow of money but human behavior did not change, fear and greed still move price. Maybe the cycle stretches or becomes messier but I doubt it disappears completely

[Donneski]

What stands out to me is that this debate itself shows Bitcoin is maturing. Early cycles were retail driven and emotional but  today’s market is slower, deeper and more macro-sensitive.

The four-year cycle might still guide sentiment but macro factors like ratesz liquidity and ETFs now have stronger influence. If Bitcoin makes new highs in 2026, I don't think it'll translate to cycles were wrong, it's just that the market has evolved. Old models don’t vanish, they adapt.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

What stands out to me is that this debate itself shows Bitcoin is maturing. Early cycles were retail driven and emotional but  today’s market is slower, deeper and more macro-sensitive.

The four-year cycle might still guide sentiment but macro factors like ratesz liquidity and ETFs now have stronger influence. If Bitcoin makes new highs in 2026, I don't think it'll translate to cycles were wrong, it's just that the market has evolved. Old models don’t vanish, they adapt.

That's how market works though, every cycle there is somewhat of a slowdown in terms of how big it is growing.

Yeah, you can call it maturing, as the market grows, as there are a lot of entities right now. Before it was just us, retail investors who try to push the price. But now we have institutions, big whales and companies and even nations.

Good thing is that we learn how to adapt every cycle, we evolved as investors and we learn from our past mistakes.

[buwaytress]

I think people are too quick to declare the four year cycle dead, every cycle looked different while it was happening, only in hindsight it looks clean, ETFs and institutions definitely changed the flow of money but human behavior did not change, fear and greed still move price. Maybe the cycle stretches or becomes messier but I doubt it disappears completely

So when would be the right time then? The cycle doesn't to me say much about human behaviour, like you said, that's what really moves the price but I think that's short term (hence the sudden peaks or dips) -- long term, the cycle really does seem "dead" if we're talking about things like ATHs after a halving (didn't happen this time) or a blowout top (we had at least 3 consecutive ATHs this time and a comparatively smooth decline since).

[Mr_Brilliant$]

I think people are too quick to declare the four year cycle dead, every cycle looked different while it was happening, only in hindsight it looks clean, ETFs and institutions definitely changed the flow of money but human behavior did not change, fear and greed still move price. Maybe the cycle stretches or becomes messier but I doubt it disappears completely

Man, I think it has in a way TBH, because of how obvious things are. It may not necessarily have died completely, but there was obviously a shift for that four years cycle.. 
it’s now basically more of manipulations and control, from big institutions and whales.. they may as well try to make the 4 years cycle seems normal in the several coming cycles, but for this one, it is obviously just a game..
Yeah the only thing that didn’t change is the psychology around it, like you said humans behavior, fear, greed etc.. Which still influenced the market a bit, but don’t have huge impact on it..

[Zanab247]

I think people are too quick to declare the four year cycle dead, every cycle looked different while it was happening, only in hindsight it looks clean, ETFs and institutions definitely changed the flow of money but human behavior did not change, fear and greed still move price. Maybe the cycle stretches or becomes messier but I doubt it disappears completely

If you don't have this knowledge of BTC it will be hard for you to trust BTC and your hodling, because you will not know when you will follow other people to decide to release your BTC that is not going to favour hodlers. The year some people will predict that BTC is not going to bull maybe it will be the year people will experience what they have not experience from BTC, because BTC is volatile.

Some time human behavior change to good or change to bad it depends the kind of people they are associate with, because BTC has reached some stage to eliminate fear from hodlers mind to know that BTC is different from other cryptocurrencies.

[DeeppRockk]

I think people are too quick to declare the four year cycle dead, every cycle looked different while it was happening, only in hindsight it looks clean, ETFs and institutions definitely changed the flow of money but human behavior did not change, fear and greed still move price. Maybe the cycle stretches or becomes messier but I doubt it disappears completely

If you don't have this knowledge of BTC it will be hard for you to trust BTC and your hodling, because you will not know when you will follow other people to decide to release your BTC that is not going to favour hodlers. The year some people will predict that BTC is not going to bull maybe it will be the year people will experience what they have not experience from BTC, because BTC is volatile.

Some time human behavior change to good or change to bad it depends the kind of people they are associate with, because BTC has reached some stage to eliminate fear from hodlers mind to know that BTC is different from other cryptocurrencies.

I remember back in 2020 when the whole "plan B" stock-to-flow model was getting a lot of attention. There was this group of people who treated it like gospel, and another group that dismissed it as pure noise. The funny thing was, both sides had their moments where they were right and wrong. What stood out to me was how the market dynamics shifted when different circles started paying attention. For example, when the institutional money started trickling in, the price action changed in ways that surprised even the most seasoned traders. It wasnt just about the numbers anymore-it was about who was watching and why. I think the real question is, how much of this is about the actual fundamentals and how much is about the psychology of these different groups? Like, when the degens pile in, its one thing, but when the big players start moving, the whole game changes. Not sure if well ever really know which circle has the most influence, but its definitely an interesting puzzle.