Do you guys know the real chances every time you add a leg to your parlay?

[mirakal]

I see people here posting their parlays all the time. Some hit wild slips, some just get crushed by one leg. But it made me think, do we really know how much the odds drop every time we add another leg?

Like when you go from 2 to 3 to 4 legs, the chance of hitting everything gets way smaller even if the picks look safe.
I’m wondering if anyone here actually checks the probability or if most of us are just going by instinct.

For those who don’t know how to compute it yet, there’s a tool on this site that lets you calculate the odds for each added leg.

you can use this parlay calculator, https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/parlay.html

but here are some example.

[Vaculin]

I know about that, but honestly I don’t really care. I’m more attracted to the payout than the actual chance of winning. If I focus too much on the better chance of winning, then I’ll stop betting parlays altogether,  and that kills the fun for me. Parlays exist for a reason, they bring excitement, especially when you hit a huge multiplier.

So to minimize the risk, just don’t bet a big amount. Treat it differently from your single bets. Bet small, enjoy the ride, and take the big payout if it somehow hits.

[fullfitlarry]

Good for showing what's the percentage of winning as we added one leg on our parlay.

But perhaps gamblers doesn't look at it, maybe their mind is really on how or whether they are going to win each added game. With that, they could have analyzed the game itself and then take that big risk and look for a good multiplier and then see how it goes.

[swogerino]

The more you add games to your parlay the fewer your chances to be successful. That table just confirms it yet I know that every gambler knows that the more legs they add to their parlay the more their chances are reduced. Now for people who play like 25 legs parlay I think they don't care about their probability rather they fancy bypassing luck and winning a huge amount of money. I have yet to see a 25 leg parlay with huge odds as a winning ticket so most likely that table is to be taken into account as that also confirms how difficult it is to win a big multi leg parlay. I have tried myself 25 leg parlay with 1.15 max odd of all events there and still it was a lost one further confirming that this table here is super correct.

[Lannakosa]

I see people here posting their parlays all the time. Some hit wild slips, some just get crushed by one leg. But it made me think, do we really know how much the odds drop every time we add another leg?

Like when you go from 2 to 3 to 4 legs, the chance of hitting everything gets way smaller even if the picks look safe.
I’m wondering if anyone here actually checks the probability or if most of us are just going by instinct.

For those who don’t know how to compute it yet, there’s a tool on this site that   lets you calculate the odds for each added leg.

you can use this parlay calculator, https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/parlay.html

but here are some example.

I think this is average statistics because besides that you need to consider the odds and 1.2 or 1.9 will also influence the probability. But overall I agree with you that the more events you have in a parlay, the lower the chances of winning. I think that everyone here who is into betting understands this well from their own experience, the more events you add the harder it is to win. Sometimes one event ruins everything sometimes several, and in the end it does not really matter when you lose.

[Maslate]

I think this is average statistics because besides that you need to consider the odds and 1.2 or 1.9 will also influence the probability. But overall I agree with you that the more events you have in a parlay, the lower the chances of winning. I think that everyone here who is into betting understands this well from their own experience, the more events you add the harder it is to win. Sometimes one event ruins everything sometimes several, and in the end it does not really matter when you lose.

That was only for presentation, the odds were based on +100 or 2.00 decimal, and it’s just showing the multiplier every time you add another leg to a parlay. Even with that alone, you can already see how the chances of winning get smaller the more legs you stack. But of course, we’re not scared of that. We know it’s realistic, but when we’re aiming for a huge hit, we’re not exactly looking at stats anyway, we’re basically relying on luck.

[Ruttoshi]

That's not a problem. Majority of gamblers on parlay knows this but they don't care. They're after using a little amount of money to win big, that is the main focus. I have seen two gamblers on my street who hit it big with parlay. They did it with little amount of money. However, the chances of winning your ten leg parlay is very slim but with luck it's possible.

I don't bet on parlay often, I prefer single bets. My luck is more on single bets than parlay. Using big amount of money to bet on parlay is stupidity.

[freedomgo]

I have seen two gamblers on my street who hit it big with parlay. They did it with little amount of money. However, the chances of winning your ten leg parlay is very slim but with luck it's possible.

Not this guy -

He bet $127 on a parlay and almost hit it, but he also had another parlay that actually won, and the amount stake was even bigger than that. So yeah, most of us stick to small bets, but there are really people out there who have the money to risk and still enjoy the thrill even if the chances are pretty slim.

[Dave1]

I have seen two gamblers on my street who hit it big with parlay. They did it with little amount of money. However, the chances of winning your ten leg parlay is very slim but with luck it's possible.

Not this guy -

He bet $127 on a parlay and almost hit it, but he also had another parlay that actually won, and the amount stake was even bigger than that. So yeah, most of us stick to small bets, but there are really people out there who have the money to risk and still enjoy the thrill even if the chances are pretty slim.

Yes, that's true, for the majority of us $100++ in a parlay is already a big stake. We do want to play parlay because of the huge multiplier and with only small bets we can turn our money into X amount.

And so with that, even if we know the tables of how our risk is with that added parlay, it doesn't matter for those who love to bet this method. 25 leg could be the biggest that I have seen in a while and that person could have hit 2x already without thinking of the risk, he could be more of that hitting that multi-leg and show us that it can be done.

[crwth]

Is this fixed to which leg you are adding it to? Like how easy it is to win that specific leg? I'm not that much experienced with parlays. I dabbled in it, but I wasn't able to be successful at it when I did. Maybe I was just always hoping for the best and added a lot of bets. 

[freedomgo]

I have seen two gamblers on my street who hit it big with parlay. They did it with little amount of money. However, the chances of winning your ten leg parlay is very slim but with luck it's possible.

Not this guy -

He bet $127 on a parlay and almost hit it, but he also had another parlay that actually won, and the amount stake was even bigger than that. So yeah, most of us stick to small bets, but there are really people out there who have the money to risk and still enjoy the thrill even if the chances are pretty slim.

Yes, that's true, for the majority of us $100++ in a parlay is already a big stake. We do want to play parlay because of the huge multiplier and with only small bets we can turn our money into X amount.

And so with that, even if we know the tables of how our risk is with that added parlay, it doesn't matter for those who love to bet this method. 25 leg could be the biggest that I have seen in a while and that person could have hit 2x already without thinking of the risk, he could be more of that hitting that multi-leg and show us that it can be done.

He also had parlay that actually won, $75 bet had won $1,483

He’s one of the few who actually showed proof of his claim, so in a way I like it, in a positive sense, because I also bet on parlays and it’s kinda inspiring to see that it’s really possible to hit something like that. I’m not even jealous of the amount he won, because I’d never stake that high on a parlay anyway, especially with that kind of multiplier.

And by the way, he also shared his roulette winnings. This guy is a real gambler.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

I don't even need any tool to prove to me that the chance of winning a parlay that is more than 3 legs is not the same with parlay of just 2 legs, and also as the number of legs increases that's how the chance of winning drops. I was just saying exactly same thing in one of my previous comment on another topic. As a matter of fact, all the parlay that I have been betting on since Monday till yesterday, non has ever been successful because the games are up to ten and some are more, I just did it to take cash but even the cash out offer didn't come out before the game was bursted.

[Mpamaegbu]

I would rather increase my staked amount on small parlays to increase my chances of hitting it than work myself up with long list and on small stake. Doing that keeps one in anxiety mood. Those who are scared of losing but are fixated on wins with tiny stakes should know that's not a winning mentality. For me, it's intentionally throwing money away. The few who got lucky that way are infinitesimal to a long list of those who haven't. They're exceptional and shouldn't be treated as a norm.

[TLoyal]

It good but doesn't work for everybody. The only thing I see in parlay is the aspect of multiplication of odds which also increase the payout if the legs wins. But I must tell you the risk is higher that just the the normal sorted way of selecting game.
Another thing that is important to consider is the type of parlay that works well for you like the following:
*Round  Robbins * Teaser parlay * Standard parlay* Same game parlay.

[Agbamoni]

The table is not 100% correct, not even 90% correct. The probability can vary from bet to bet. And it can also be determined by the odds chosen. I don't know how you manage to conclude that there are real chances.

Anyway, I'll look into it more when I want to place a bet; this is my first time hearing of this tool. I guess I'm old school.

[Emjay24]

But perhaps gamblers doesn't look at it, maybe their mind is really on how or whether they are going to win each added game. With that, they could have analyzed the game itself and then take that big risk and look for a good multiplier and then see how it goes.

Beyond not looking at it, gamblers don't care about those winning probabilities because even if you bet only on singles it may still end in a loss, I've won a parlay of 15 games, that's 0.067 probability from the calculator but it converted and I enjoyed my winnings. Most times, only predicting the game gives you a form of fulfilment and looking at the potential win gives you hope and makes you feel good. It's more fun for me to predict 10 games in a betslip than playing singles and ending up staking huge to make the pot. wins meaningful.

What I say in earnest is this, the fun in predicting multiple games is more fulfilling than caring more about the decreased probabilities of the games being won.

[Distinctin]

Same game parlay.

I’m actually looking for a sportsbook that allows this, but so far I haven’t seen one that lets you parlay bets from the same game, like spread + total. It would be easier to win in my opinion if they allowed it, but maybe there’s a reason why they don’t offer that. Right now the max I can do in a parlay is just one bet per game, and if I want to add more legs, I need to pick another game to be part of the parlay.

[Emjay24]

Same game parlay.

I’m actually looking for a sportsbook that allows this, but so far I haven’t seen one that lets you parlay bets from the same game, like spread + total. It would be easier to win in my opinion if they allowed it, but maybe there’s a reason why they don’t offer that. Right now the max I can do in a parlay is just one bet per game, and if I want to add more legs, I need to pick another game to be part of the parlay.

Look up bet builder, I've heard of it somewhere in this board but One reason it is not for me is that you'll have to win all selections from the game before the bet is considered won. If you are convinced that you know individual capabilities of the team, you can even select players to get yellow cards, spreads, corners and other selections still within the match. I researched on it as at then and bet 365 offered such, although I tried opening account with them but it was unsuccessful and I gave up checking it out.

[Japinat]

Same game parlay.

I’m actually looking for a sportsbook that allows this, but so far I haven’t seen one that lets you parlay bets from the same game, like spread + total. It would be easier to win in my opinion if they allowed it, but maybe there’s a reason why they don’t offer that. Right now the max I can do in a parlay is just one bet per game, and if I want to add more legs, I need to pick another game to be part of the parlay.

Look up bet builder, I've heard of it somewhere in this board but One reason it is not for me is that you'll have to win all selections from the game before the bet is considered won. If you are convinced that you know individual capabilities of the team, you can even select players to get yellow cards, spreads, corners and other selections still within the match. I researched on it as at then and bet 365 offered such, although I tried opening account with them but it was unsuccessful and I gave up checking it out.

I agree with that, I had tried with the game tomorrow between the laker and celtics and its possible.
@distinctin - try this link https://rainbet.com/sportsbook/basketball/usa/nba/boston-celtics-los-angeles-lakers-2608552317422809137

Not promoting it, just trying to show an example that its possible do some parlay through builder as suggested by Emjay24