Hello everyone,
I’ve been working on a new mathematical framework for systemic risk, moving away from traditional VaR models towards a physics-based approach (Langevin Dynamics).
The model,
ART-2D (2D Asymmetric Risk Theory), treats risk as a conserved vector field.
Relevance to Crypto:The model identifies a deterministic phase transition threshold (Sigma = 0.75). When I backtested this on the Terra/Luna collapse data, the indicator crossed the critical red line
5 days before the de-peg.
This suggests that "algorithmic stability" isn't just about code, but about thermodynamic limits of liquidity.
The Paper (Open Access PDF):https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17805937I’m an independent researcher and this work is self-funded. If you find the math useful for your own trading or research, I’d appreciate any support to keep the lights on.
Support the Research:BTC: 1CSPztph113vn2xm9aypXyiDNwzaUgKsVa
ETH: 0x8014771dbeAE5b046541b3C07e2EB2cA489C7b78
Looking forward to your feedback on the "Informational Asymmetry" derivation.
