Stadus NBA betting Journey - 52.17%

[stadus]

Hello guys, some of you probably noticed me in the NBA betting thread that I also created. I’m happy to see a lot of NBA fans there sharing their picks. But today I decided to create my own thread so I can monitor my performance more effectively. I’ll also be sharing my bets here, so feel free to follow or fade, that’s your call.

And of course, I’m open to constructive criticism, but just a heads-up, this will be a self-moderated thread so I can delete unnecessary posts or spam.

Here’s my current record.

That brings my record to 22–20, 52.38% (not profitable anymore).

That will continue here..

[stadus]

Today I’ve got the game between the Miami Heat and the Orlando Magic. No Franz Wagner, which I think is a big loss for the Magic, and Miami in my opinion should be able to beat this Magic team even if they’re pretty solid. I’m a bit puzzled by the line too, and from what I’ve seen, spots like this usually lean toward the road team.

So I’m taking Miami Heat on the moneyline.

[stadus]

Miami Heat on the moneyline.

Lost this bet, record now 22-21, 51%.

I wasn’t able to place my bet in the semis since I was traveling, but tomorrow we’ve got 4 games so I’ll definitely take one. I’m slowly sliding down at this rate, and I know it’s possible to drop to this level, but the grind keeps going. Still hoping we climb back up again.


RESRVE FOR LATER PICK.

BOSTON -9

[stadus]

BOSTON -9

Lost this bet, record now 22–22, back to 50%.

Same as always, we keep going despite the losing streak. It’s a long season anyway.

Today I’ve got the Sixers hosting the Pacers. Line in my book is -5.5.
Good luck.

[stadus]

Today I’ve got the Sixers hosting the Pacers. Line in my book is -5.5.
Good luck.

Finally, losing streak is broken, current record, 23-22 51%

Tomorrow will be the NBA cup.

Knicks vs Magic ( i will go for Knicks here -5)
Spurs vs OKC ( will go for OKC here -10)

I’ve got two bets for later games and I’m breaking my usual routine this time. I’m trying to make an adjustment and hoping it helps improve my record.

[Sanitough]

Spurs vs OKC ( will go for OKC here -10)

I’m gonna follow this pick. It looks too easy, might be a trap, but this is a big game. Whoever wins goes to the finals, and OKC can’t afford to lose this one. It’s part of the history they’re building now, only 1 loss so far. Spurs beat the Lakers so they’re getting some hype, but I don’t think they stand a real chance against a healthy OKC.

[stadus]

Spurs vs OKC ( will go for OKC here -10)

I’m gonna follow this pick. It looks too easy, might be a trap, but this is a big game. Whoever wins goes to the finals, and OKC can’t afford to lose this one. It’s part of the history they’re building now, only 1 loss so far. Spurs beat the Lakers so they’re getting some hype, but I don’t think they stand a real chance against a healthy OKC.

Thanks for the confidence in following my pick and trusting OKC. Consider this like a playoff game, it’s basically their ticket to the NBA Cup final. They’ll most likely face the Knicks next, which is a strong team, and honestly this could even be a preview of a finals matchup. If the Knicks have a good season, we might see them again against the defending champions. So good luck to us.

[rbynxx]

Spurs vs OKC ( will go for OKC here -10)

I’m gonna follow this pick. It looks too easy, might be a trap, but this is a big game. Whoever wins goes to the finals, and OKC can’t afford to lose this one. It’s part of the history they’re building now, only 1 loss so far. Spurs beat the Lakers so they’re getting some hype, but I don’t think they stand a real chance against a healthy OKC.

So it does for the Spurs and that spread might look so huge to take, if I'll pick this one I'd be leaning on Spurs plus spread as it's more safe. I'm thinking this will be more of a close game and you know Spurs has listed Wemby as probable now and that could be a problem with the Thunder although I'm not expecting his 100% fine as he's coming back from injury.

[stadus]

Knicks vs Magic ( i will go for Knicks here -5)
Spurs vs OKC ( will go for OKC here -10)

I’ve got two bets for later games and I’m breaking my usual routine this time. I’m trying to make an adjustment and hoping it helps improve my record.

just even (1-1) record now is 24-23 51%]

Tomorrow I have the game between the Lakers and the Phoenix Suns. Last time they played, the Lakers dominated Phoenix, so I’m still backing them at home this time.

With an 8-3 ATS record at home, I’m confident they’ll win.

So my pick is Phoenix ML.

[Questat]

we have a good news here. ( we might see him in this game...)

Devin Booker's injury status upgraded before Phoenix Suns-Lakers game

---

turn out this isn't a good news since although Booker was playing as usual, but they still loss.
Just a wasted effort on the comeback run.

[stadus]

So my pick is Phoenix ML.

I thought the 4th quarter comeback would be completed, but it didn’t happen. At one point the Lakers were up by 20, so it would’ve been a great win if the Suns managed to come back, but they fell short in the end.

It’s not really hard to accept the loss, but I do have some comments about the game. It felt like the refs were favoring the Lakers. That shot made by Brooks should’ve been called a foul also, but since he overreact and didn't play smart, he got a T and was ejected. The refs really influenced that game. Anyway…

record now is 24-24 = 50%

[bisdak40]

I thought the 4th quarter comeback would be completed, but it didn’t happen. At one point the Lakers were up by 20, so it would’ve been a great win if the Suns managed to come back, but they fell short in the end.

It’s not really hard to accept the loss, but I do have some comments about the game. It felt like the refs were favoring the Lakers. That shot made by Brooks should’ve been called a foul also, but since he overreact and didn't play smart, he got a T and was ejected. The refs really influenced that game. Anyway…

The Suns nearly staged a comeback, but Dillon Brooks lost his composure and picked up a technical foul on James. I thought my bet was in jeopardy when James missed the technical free throw and the first of his three awarded attempts. Luckily, Marcus Smart was fouled and sank one crucial free throw, just enough to cover the 1.5 spread. What a wild sequence—it’s a perfect reminder that the game isn’t over until the final buzzer sounds.

[stadus]

The Suns nearly staged a comeback, but Dillon Brooks lost his composure and picked up a technical foul on James. I thought my bet was in jeopardy when James missed the technical free throw and the first of his three awarded attempts. Luckily, Marcus Smart was fouled and sank one crucial free throw, just enough to cover the 1.5 spread. What a wild sequence—it’s a perfect reminder that the game isn’t over until the final buzzer sounds.

If Booker stayed smart, he would’ve been very useful on both offense and defense in the final seconds of the game. Instead, he chose to play mind games with LeBron. Still, the refs were clearly biased there. They missed an obvious foul on the Suns, but that’s over now.

Now let’s move on to the NBA Cup Finals. I already lost my bet on OKC after the Spurs upset them, so today I’m betting against the Spurs. This one’s a bit of revenge for me. 

my pick is Knicks -2.5.

[stadus]

my pick is Knicks -2.5.

Good win.. 25-24 51%
Let’s try to continue this win streak. With only two games on the slate, I don’t really see much value in the point spreads, so I decided to go with the totals instead.

I’m looking at Minnesota vs Memphis. The line seems high, but I have a feeling they won’t reach it.
Memphis has been inconsistent lately, so I’m on the under 233.

[stadus]

so I’m on the under 233.

26-24 is the current record ( 52%)
Today I’m going with the Clippers vs Lakers game. For me this one is a no-brainer, unless it turns into some huge trap, but I don’t really believe that for this matchup. The Clippers have been struggling lately, and I just don’t see them beating the Lakers here. So my pick is Lakers -1.5.

Good luck everyone.

[stadus]

So my pick is Lakers -1.5.

26-25 is the record now 50%

Today I’m betting live on the last game, Rockets vs Kings, and I took Rockets -10.5.

I believe the Kings will continue to tank, and this Rockets team is very solid defensively. I think they’ll dominate the Kings even on their home court.

So yeah, good luck.

[stadus]

Today I’m betting live on the last game, Rockets vs Kings, and I took Rockets -10.5.

Didn’t expect it to be that bad. The Rockets even lost that game, and now the record is 26–26, exactly 50%.

Today I’m hoping to bounce back from that loss, and I’m rooting for the Spurs to beat OKC for the second time this year.

So my pick is Spurs +7.

[stadus]

So my pick is Spurs +7.

I should’ve taken the moneyline, but whatever. Record is now 27–26, still sitting at 50%.

What really impressed me was how the Spurs game-planned against the defending champs. This time they dominated OKC from the opening tip. Not a single quarter where OKC looked in control. That has to be OKC’s worst game this season. Damn, this Spurs team is a real threat.

we will take a break for Christmas day.

[stadus]

We’ve got some early games tomorrow, so I am posting my early lean as well.

It's the Knicks vs Cavaliers. The Cavs have been really inconsistent, and considering how solid the Knicks are at home, I’m sticking with that angle.

I’m taking Knicks -5.5 at home. They’re 14-2 ATS at home, that’s hard data and really hard to ignore.

[stadus]

I’m taking Knicks -5.5 at home. They’re 14-2 ATS at home, that’s hard data and really hard to ignore.

That impressive ATS record didn’t work this time. The Knicks won the game but failed to cover the spread, so that brings my record to 27–27, sitting at 50%.

I’m adding one more game today since it’s Christmas. I’m going with the Rockets -2.5.
Both teams are on a losing streak, but as long as Luka is out, the Lakers just don’t look the same to me.