Brad Garlinghouse, the CEO of Ripple, went on stage in Dubai last week and said
Bitcoin will reach $180,000 by end of 2026. The crypto news websites loved it. Why did he say this number and what does it mean for people like us?
First, who is this man? He is 54 years old, Harvard MBA, worked in Yahoo and AOL before Ripple. For four years, the US government attempted to destroy his company by legal attacks. He fought back and mostly won. So, he is not some random person in Twitter. His company, Ripple, benefits both from Bitcoin rising and from crypto being more accepted by governments. If Bitcoin wins, XRP wins too. So is this analysis or this marketing?
Some of what he says is consistent with real data. The US government is now holding Bitcoin, instead of selling it. Big companies such as Blackrock are producing Bitcoin products for regular investors. Miners are losing money at present prices and that typically indicates that the price is approaching an area of support. These things are true.
But the people beneficiary from
Bitcoin going mainstream are not us. They are the institutions, the funds, the governments. They purchase when we are scared and do so quietly. They sell slowly, when we are excited. They have time and money and information that we do not have.
So maybe Garlinghouse is correct in the direction. Maybe Bitcoin does go much higher as a result of all these structural changes. How many of us patiently have the plan for it to benefit us? Or do we just play to the headlines and buy high/sell low and watch the big players win again?
To understand why he made it; who it serves; and what your own strategy is. Because in this game the person who has the plan usually wins. The man who is after numbers usually loses.