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Author Topic: SpaceX IPO  (Read 1067 times)
OgNasty (OP)
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July 24, 2026, 05:48:44 AM
 #81

But don't think it's the right time to go all in

All in? Man, you should never go all in in any stock, specially this one.

Spacex is highly speculative, and the upside is limited.

Spacex was worth about 100 billion in 2022, that is about 15x in the last 4 years. You wont see even 3x in the next 4 years. The upside is limited now, and their plans are long term.

It is already a top 10 company in the world , but it is in red right now, they lost 5 billion just the first quarter this year.

SpaceX should definitely be a part of a diversified portfolio and not an all in target. I disagree about the lack of upside though. I think it will be the first $100,000,000,000,000 market cap company. Even after merging with SpaceX that would be a ~x35. I think it happens in the next 15 years. I would be happy with that return.

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July 24, 2026, 11:43:33 AM
 #82

But don't think it's the right time to go all in

All in? Man, you should never go all in in any stock, specially this one.

Spacex is highly speculative, and the upside is limited.

Spacex was worth about 100 billion in 2022, that is about 15x in the last 4 years. You wont see even 3x in the next 4 years. The upside is limited now, and their plans are long term.

It is already a top 10 company in the world , but it is in red right now, they lost 5 billion just the first quarter this year.

SpaceX should definitely be a part of a diversified portfolio and not an all in target. I disagree about the lack of upside though. I think it will be the first $100,000,000,000,000 market cap company. Even after merging with SpaceX that would be a ~x35. I think it happens in the next 15 years. I would be happy with that return.

Diversification really have sense at all, but it seems that your projection is so ambitious or maybe to much. Since reaching at that level SpaceX needs huge revenue streams, massive global adoption on its technologies offered, also their execution will became so flawless on different industries.

No doubt that their performance or trajectory is truly impressive, but leaping on what you are describing requires a lot which so far If I'm not wrong no company has achieved those conditions.

If they succeed more in future, maybe success will became more massive. Although we cannot guarantee that it will happen.

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July 24, 2026, 11:54:41 AM
 #83

But don't think it's the right time to go all in

All in? Man, you should never go all in in any stock, specially this one.

Spacex is highly speculative, and the upside is limited.

Spacex was worth about 100 billion in 2022, that is about 15x in the last 4 years. You wont see even 3x in the next 4 years. The upside is limited now, and their plans are long term.

It is already a top 10 company in the world , but it is in red right now, they lost 5 billion just the first quarter this year.

SpaceX should definitely be a part of a diversified portfolio and not an all in target. I disagree about the lack of upside though. I think it will be the first $100,000,000,000,000 market cap company. Even after merging with SpaceX that would be a ~x35. I think it happens in the next 15 years. I would be happy with that return.

Diversification really have sense at all, but it seems that your projection is so ambitious or maybe to much. Since reaching at that level SpaceX needs huge revenue streams, massive global adoption on its technologies offered, also their execution will became so flawless on different industries.

No doubt that their performance or trajectory is truly impressive, but leaping on what you are describing requires a lot which so far If I'm not wrong no company has achieved those conditions.

If they succeed more in future, maybe success will became more massive. Although we cannot guarantee that it will happen.




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July 24, 2026, 11:59:59 AM
 #84

Spcx represents hope for the future of humanity.

Without expansion into space humanity is doomed.

So anti spcx ie not holding at least a single share of it means you believe we as humans are doomed.

Oh I do not agree with Og about 4 year price cycles but when it comes to space I have about 36 shares of it.

18 on robinhood
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My opinion is simple if you have enough money to buy at least a single  share of spcx and you do not you have no hope for people at all.


This does not mean you need to mortgage your home and sell your left kidney to buy thousands of shares.

but holding a minimum of a single share should be every adults goal on the entire planet earth.

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July 24, 2026, 03:16:23 PM
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 #85

Spcx represents hope for the future of humanity.

Without expansion into space humanity is doomed.

So anti spcx ie not holding at least a single share of it means you believe we as humans are doomed.

Investing in spcx doesn't mean that you will make money if humans explore other planets or whatever.
You are investing in one company. If other companies have success, that success isn't necessarily shared with spcx

If you want to be exposed to space exploration as a whole, you should invest in funds focused in that.
such as ARKX (ARK Space & Defense Innovation ETF), which holds about 7% of SPCX

https://www.ark-funds.com/funds/arkx#hold

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July 24, 2026, 06:34:49 PM
 #86

Spcx represents hope for the future of humanity.

Without expansion into space humanity is doomed.

So anti spcx ie not holding at least a single share of it means you believe we as humans are doomed.

Oh I do not agree with Og about 4 year price cycles but when it comes to space I have about 36 shares of it.

18 on robinhood
18 on kraken

My opinion is simple if you have enough money to buy at least a single  share of spcx and you do not you have no hope for people at all.


This does not mean you need to mortgage your home and sell your left kidney to buy thousands of shares.

but holding a minimum of a single share should be every adults goal on the entire planet earth.

While I think it can't hurt to hold a share as you said, the problem I see with SpaceX specifically is that there is no time pressure at all. Elon Musk likes to put it that way over and over again rhetorically, but it is just not true and he knows it. He does it though because his lifespan is limited and he wants to get done as much as possible.

I have been reading about that topic for many years now because I was a little space and astro freak ever since I was a child. The reading material has become more complex as I grew older, and one field I recommend looking into is stellar evolution. There are very well tested models that have stood the test of time and it can be accurately predicted how stars change over time. As an important milestone in the timeline, it could be mentioned in about 1 billion years, the sun will be roughly 10% brighter than today and that would be the point where complex life as we know it won't be possible anymore because of the high temperature of the Earth's surface. From there it is pretty simple maths and linearity as an approximation does the work. It is actually exponential, but as an approximation you can say that within 100 million years the sun is about 1% brighter and that translates into 0.6° - 0.7° because of the sun only, not accounting for human-caused climate change.

The human-caused climate change is the real problem and it is a little bit of a contradiction that Musk wants to build one of the most energy intensive companies in human history. When every household has one of his robots and whatever else he is offering, the actual energy infrastructure isn't in place yet to accommodate the energy requirements. This is where I think Musk is far too optimistic about the timelines. The infrastructure will definitely be the bottleneck and that is what has to be worked on first because as a comparison, the additional warming through the sun is 0.7° in about 100 million years, but the human-caused temperature increase because of emissions is about 1.3° in the last 150 years alone and it is accelerating. Those are crazy numbers! The human-caused climate change is more than 1 million times faster than that of the sun.

This means that before Musk can scale up any technical production needed to finally and realistically make it to space, like building a space colony or something, the whole energy infrastructure would have to be tremendously upgraded first and this is where I think Musk's companies will soon run into a deadlock unless enormous amounts of money are invested into additional and more efficient infrastructure first.

philipma1957 you are right that time is running out and humanity could one day be doomed, but to accelerate the development that could save us, we would first have to have that infrastructure in place and I don't know if Musk is getting the order right. It is not only about energy demand of today, but about the energy demand in maybe 20 or 30 years and until then, estimations say that it will probably triple. Energy infrastructure developments need to exponentially increase and even more so if products like the Optimus hit the market. But while countries like China are making lots of progress on the renewable energy front, they are in part neutralizing that effect by building more energy facilities run by coal.

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July 24, 2026, 10:53:27 PM
Last edit: July 24, 2026, 11:59:22 PM by OgNasty
 #87

Starship is about to launch another test flight. This may be the last flight before they try a tower catch. They’re going to test delivery of their latest satellites to space and do some new testing of the heat shield tiles. Head over to YouTube and search up SpaceX or Starship to find a live feed!

Edit: Perfect test all the way around complete with a soft splash down for the first time. All rockets functioned perfectly, satellites placed perfectly… The best part was the chants of USA USA as they witnessed the soft splash down.

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