Bitcoin: Is the Next Crash Inevitable?

[Alpen]

The second wave of December's Bitcoin rally has once again ended in heavy selling, showing clear signs of structural weakness and exhausted momentum.
Its Inter-exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) indicator has dipped into the red, falling below its 90-day average. This signals a clear disconnect between the asset's high price and real capital backing. Such a divergence has historically preceded phases of deep correction, as the market runs out of fuel to sustain a prolonged rally.



This worrying lack of investment is confirmed by the situation on Binance, where a massive outflow of stablecoins has been recorded for a third straight week. Institutional investors are withdrawing assets via ERC-20 networks en masse, significantly reducing order book depth and the exchange's buying power. The "smart money" is adopting a wait-and-see approach.



From a technical analysis standpoint, a descending triangle pattern has formed on Bitcoin's daily chart. A break below its base at the $90K level would lead to a sharp drop toward the $87K-$86K zone. If the price fails to hold there, BTC is facing a major Christmas sell-off.



Investors have other places to put their money besides BTC. They're looking at stocks, gold, and especially silver—assets that have delivered returns significantly higher than Bitcoin's this year.

[fullfitlarry]

I'm not expert in TA. But if you believed in the 4 year cycle, then obviously, yes, bear season is going to appear to matter what. I don't know though if Bitcoin investors are going to shift to any other instruments when we go on a full bear run.

For me, it's better to stick on Bitcoin. And as what others said, bear market is the start of something new, it could be the beginning of the buying and holding season. Keep stacking sats, used the DCA method. Hard grind though, but in the end, as the cycle repeats itself, sooner or later there will be halving and then the eventual bull-run.

[X-ray]

Investors have other places to put their money besides BTC. They're looking at stocks, gold, and especially silver—assets that have delivered returns significantly higher than Bitcoin's this year.

You gotta realize gold and silver is touching an all time high after so long while stock index is not too far from all time high as well. A smart investor won't invest in an overvalued asset and they'd try to rotate their profit.

If anything, they are the one that gonna invest in bitcoin not the other way around.

[Oshosondy]

Investors have other places to put their money besides BTC. They're looking at stocks, gold, and especially silver—assets that have delivered returns significantly higher than Bitcoin's this year.

What I know is that it will be difficult for gold and silver to go 10x than for bitcoin to go 10x. Also it will be good to know that bitcoin is a store of value. Bitcoin has proven this times without number.

But about now, I do not expect the price of bitcoin to increase significantly, but bitcoin is doing good, I expected the price to fall more than this by this time but it is not falling but getting back to at least $90000.

[Justbillywitt]

Investors have other places to put their money besides BTC. They're looking at stocks, gold, and especially silver—assets that have delivered returns significantly higher than Bitcoin's this year.

It has been said many times that for investors who are looking for were they will get rich over night or make a huge profit within a short period of time like one year or less that bitcoin investment is not for them. To see profits in bitcoin (though not guaranteed) you have to adopt a long term hold mentality. So those who came into bitcoin earlier this year and expected that their bag will be filled with money  by December are somehow disappointed and it's normal for them to move their money elsewhere. Anyone who's investing in bitcoin should know that having patience is important and and paper hands don't profit from bitcoin.

[dunfida]

Investors have other places to put their money besides BTC. They're looking at stocks, gold, and especially silver—assets that have delivered returns significantly higher than Bitcoin's this year.

It has been said many times that for investors who are looking for were they will get rich over night or make a huge profit within a short period of time like one year or less that bitcoin investment is not for them. To see profits in bitcoin (though not guaranteed) you have to adopt a long term hold mentality. So those who came into bitcoin earlier this year and expected that their bag will be filled with money  by December are somehow disappointed and it's normal for them to move their money elsewhere. Anyone who's investing in bitcoin should know that having patience is important and and paper hands don't profit from bitcoin.

Investors do rotate into whatever looks strongest in the moment. This year stocks and metals especially silver have outperformed Bitcoin on a percentage basis and that alone is enough to pull short-term capital away. People chase what is currently moving because they want fast results. That’s natural investor psychology not a deep statement about Bitcoin’s long-term value.

But your point stands. Bitcoin has never been a one-year get-rich vehicle. It rewards the people who understand cycles. It punishes the people who treat it like a scratch-off ticket. Anyone who entered in early 2024 with the expectation that their portfolio would explode by December set themselves up emotionally for disappointment. The market didn’t fail them their expectations did. This is why “paper hands don’t profit from bitcoin” has remained true through every cycle. The big returns always come from multi-year positioning. Short-term investors shift to stocks or metals because they don’t want to wait. Long-term investors keep accumulating quietly during these rotations knowing that capital eventually flows back. Bitcoin has shown this pattern repeatedly. Investors pull money out during corrections then regret it when the next major leg begins.

[Danica22]

I'm not expert in TA. But if you believed in the 4 year cycle, then obviously, yes, bear season is going to appear to matter what. I don't know though if Bitcoin investors are going to shift to any other instruments when we go on a full bear run.

For me, it's better to stick on Bitcoin. And as what others said, bear market is the start of something new, it could be the beginning of the buying and holding season. Keep stacking sats, used the DCA method. Hard grind though, but in the end, as the cycle repeats itself, sooner or later there will be halving and then the eventual bull-run.

Every market has its own loyal investor base. Therefore, regardless of market conditions, a large number of investors will remain and try to weather the bear market by any means necessary. However, many speculators will also shift their focus to other markets to maximize profits.

I think if a bear market occurs, there will be a large outflow of capital from ETFs. Because the majority of them are not long-term investors or pure cryptocurrency investors. If that happens, the bear market will be very brutal, and whether it's an opportunity or a disaster will depend on each investor.

[coinrifft]

I'm not expert in TA. But if you believed in the 4 year cycle, then obviously, yes, bear season is going to appear to matter what. I don't know though if Bitcoin investors are going to shift to any other instruments when we go on a full bear run.

For me, it's better to stick on Bitcoin. And as what others said, bear market is the start of something new, it could be the beginning of the buying and holding season. Keep stacking sats, used the DCA method. Hard grind though, but in the end, as the cycle repeats itself, sooner or later there will be halving and then the eventual bull-run.

Every market has its own loyal investor base. Therefore, regardless of market conditions, a large number of investors will remain and try to weather the bear market by any means necessary. However, many speculators will also shift their focus to other markets to maximize profits.

I think if a bear market occurs, there will be a large outflow of capital from ETFs. Because the majority of them are not long-term investors or pure cryptocurrency investors. If that happens, the bear market will be very brutal, and whether it's an opportunity or a disaster will depend on each investor.

Or we already have the old and traditional investors from Gold and Wall Street that has been in the Bitcoin market since 2 cycles ago. And so with that, they have already a big experience on how to handle or weathered the storm of the bear market. But even experienced investors couldn't really help themselves during the hard and turbulent bearish market because it's really hard climate to begin with. So I do agree that we need to diversify during the bear market. But for me, it's very easy choice, it should be Gold as it is very stable and even had it's all time high in the last couple of months. It's not that we will leave Bitcoin, but if you're that smart investor, diversification is the key so that we will continue to make profit on a bad market conditions by switching it up.

[Charles-Tim]

Every market has its own loyal investor base. Therefore, regardless of market conditions, a large number of investors will remain and try to weather the bear market by any means necessary. However, many speculators will also shift their focus to other markets to maximize profits. I think if a bear market occurs, there will be a large outflow of capital from ETFs. Because the majority of them are not long-term investors or pure cryptocurrency investors.

If that happens, the bear market will be very brutal, and whether it's an opportunity or a disaster will depend on each investor.

The bear market will only be brutal for altcoins. Even it is already brutal for almost all altcoins except few.

But if it is about bitcoin, expect the bear market to be less volatile than the previous one, the bull market will come again and bitcoin price will increase and get to all-time high. Making bitcoin to preserve its store of value.

[avp2306]

Every market has its own loyal investor base. Therefore, regardless of market conditions, a large number of investors will remain and try to weather the bear market by any means necessary. However, many speculators will also shift their focus to other markets to maximize profits. I think if a bear market occurs, there will be a large outflow of capital from ETFs. Because the majority of them are not long-term investors or pure cryptocurrency investors.

If that happens, the bear market will be very brutal, and whether it's an opportunity or a disaster will depend on each investor.

The bear market will only be brutal for altcoins. Even it is already brutal for almost all altcoins except few.

But if it is about bitcoin, expect the bear market to be less volatile than the previous one, the bull market will come again and bitcoin price will increase and get to all-time high. Making bitcoin to preserve its store of value.

I agree and that that brutally happening on shitcoins, but despite of the risk there are still people invest and majority experience defeats because they struggle to recover their funds on those shitcoins.

Looking at historical movement of Bitcoin if there's a dump going to happen everything is just temporary and there's huge chance for Bitcoin will recover again.

That's why instead of thinking about investing on shitcoin then plan to hold it, better if they just do it on Bitcoin then do DCA since there's more good chance to earn more decent profit than those shitcoin which lots of it drops and get zero value.

[free-bit.co.in]

It has been said many times that for investors who are looking for were they will get rich over night or make a huge profit within a short period of time like one year or less that bitcoin investment is not for them. To see profits in bitcoin (though not guaranteed) you have to adopt a long term hold mentality. So those who came into bitcoin earlier this year and expected that their bag will be filled with money  by December are somehow disappointed and it's normal for them to move their money elsewhere. Anyone who's investing in bitcoin should know that having patience is important and and paper hands don't profit from bitcoin.

Not only Bitcoin, but any investment needs to be held for the long term if you want to make a profit. This is even more true for gold and silver, which have much longer cycles than Bitcoin.

Investors shifting capital to other markets is not because they are disappointed with bitcoin or have lost interest in it. Many smart investors understand that all markets are cyclical, and they are taking full advantage of this by rotating their money between different markets to generate profits. Instead of having to hold Bitcoin for years before it generates new profits for them.

Many financial investors invest in various markets, they don't focus solely on Bitcoin as we do.

[aylabadia05]

From a technical analysis standpoint, a descending triangle pattern has formed on Bitcoin's daily chart. A break below its base at the $90K level would lead to a sharp drop toward the $87K-$86K zone. If the price fails to hold there, BTC is facing a major Christmas sell-off.



Investors have other places to put their money besides BTC. They're looking at stocks, gold, and especially silver—assets that have delivered returns significantly higher than Bitcoin's this year.

I wouldn't be surprised, having observed Bitcoin's price movements, even though technical analysis isn't my field of expertise.
Based on past experiences, Bitcoin's price reached a significant percentage lower than its ATH in 2017 and 2021.
If the 2025 ATH is $126,000, I've found that a decline of over 50% is expected. This isn't a certainty, as we know that strong predictions can be refuted.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I wouldn't be surprised, having observed Bitcoin's price movements, even though technical analysis isn't my field of expertise.

Same here

Based on past experiences, Bitcoin's price reached a significant percentage lower than its ATH in 2017 and 2021.
If the 2025 ATH is $126,000, I've found that a decline of over 50% is expected. This isn't a certainty, as we know that strong predictions can be refuted.

I believe that we are now at a crossroads and do not know how it will play out. On the one hand, there are those who say that cycles have changed and that with increased liquidity, 2026 will be bullish. On the other hand, there are those who argue that cycles as we understood them have not essentially changed, that we have already reached the peak of the cycle and that from now on winter will come, with scenarios such as the one proposed by the OP or the decline that you propose, more in the medium term.

I dare not venture anything.

[Eternad]

I'm not expert in TA. But if you believed in the 4 year cycle, then obviously, yes, bear season is going to appear to matter what. I don't know though if Bitcoin investors are going to shift to any other instruments when we go on a full bear run.

For me, it's better to stick on Bitcoin. And as what others said, bear market is the start of something new, it could be the beginning of the buying and holding season. Keep stacking sats, used the DCA method. Hard grind though, but in the end, as the cycle repeats itself, sooner or later there will be halving and then the eventual bull-run.

Most of the whale investors are already locked in on Bitcoin. They might add some to their holdings but they don’t sell when price dip. I’m skeptical to believe that we will experience the brutal bear market in the past considering that most of the huge holders of Bitcoin are institutions with long term holding purpose.

Maybe we can experience a bear market as 4 year cycle pattern but there will be a reduce in price volatility.

[aylabadia05]

Based on past experiences, Bitcoin's price reached a significant percentage lower than its ATH in 2017 and 2021.
If the 2025 ATH is $126,000, I've found that a decline of over 50% is expected. This isn't a certainty, as we know that strong predictions can be refuted.

I believe that we are now at a crossroads and do not know how it will play out. On the one hand, there are those who say that cycles have changed and that with increased liquidity, 2026 will be bullish. On the other hand, there are those who argue that cycles as we understood them have not essentially changed, that we have already reached the peak of the cycle and that from now on winter will come, with scenarios such as the one proposed by the OP or the decline that you propose, more in the medium term.

I dare not venture anything.

One thing that makes us comfortable waiting for a situation at a crossroads is simply holding. If 2026 really does see a decline of over 50% from the ATH, the obvious course of action is to buy regularly and hold until the phase reverses. Our advantage may lie in experience, which is why I, like you, am hesitant to venture into any scenario.

Continuing to focus on the uncertainty surrounding the price can lead to indecision due to constant thinking. I'm ready to welcome a decline if past experiences hold true in 2026. Although I don't own more Bitcoin than other investors, perhaps a decline could give me the opportunity to own more Bitcoin than I currently do.

[EluguHcman]

Investors have other places to put their money besides BTC. They're looking at stocks, gold, and especially silver—assets that have delivered returns significantly higher than Bitcoin's this year.

It has been said many times that for investors who are looking for were they will get rich over night or make a huge profit within a short period of time like one year or less that bitcoin investment is not for them. To see profits in bitcoin (though not guaranteed) you have to adopt a long term hold mentality. So those who came into bitcoin earlier this year and expected that their bag will be filled with money  by December are somehow disappointed and it's normal for them to move their money elsewhere. Anyone who's investing in bitcoin should know that having patience is important and and paper hands don't profit from bitcoin.

Also to be informed, Bitcoin had experienced lowest price of $76K and an ATH of $126K this year which of course had also shown some voltage of asset values even though Bitcoin has not met investors expectations before the closure of the market as the year is closely to wrap up.

Investors are also quite free to sell their Bitcoin for other assets all in desperacy of short term goal. No problems and it was quite out of their ignorant to had invested in Bitcoin in the  first place and hoped for short term goal when it is theoretically stated by professionals that Bitcoin is not encouraging for short goal but hopeful in the long term.

That reason is why it is advised to invest on Bitcoin like you are just saving your funds that you are not ready to use anytime soon.
However, desperate of quick rich investors will always want to test every sorts of trending assets and don't be surprised that they will come back to invest in Bitcoin at the dawn.
They are just so confused.

[348Judah]

The second wave of December's Bitcoin rally has once again ended in heavy selling, showing clear signs of structural weakness and exhausted momentum.
Its Inter-exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) indicator has dipped into the red, falling below its 90-day average. This signals a clear disconnect between the asset's high price and real capital backing. Such a divergence has historically preceded phases of deep correction, as the market runs out of fuel to sustain a prolonged rally.

Ant crash due to bitcoin performance could be inevitable as we are getting close to the end of the year and launching into another year, which is believed that by 2026, the season for bull run must have been done and we are now on another season, which may renders the market more volatile and also into another season as we may have it, but before all these starts, we may be in the bull run between now and the end of this year 2025 which we only have few days left for the year to round up, so i will expect that we get positioned for either bull run or a little more fall by the end of the month.

[hyudien]

Is there something wrong with the current bear market? I think it's clearly unavoidable, especially after the halving. Historically, Bitcoin seems to be repeating itself. However, my assumption is that the price drop won't be too deep, and Bitcoin could start rising again in January. Instead of worrying, as a long-term investor, it's better to capitalize on this moment.

Investors have other places to put their money besides BTC. They're looking at stocks, gold, and especially silver—assets that have delivered returns significantly higher than Bitcoin's this year.

Gold and silver are indeed stable assets, but when it comes to providing substantial returns, Bitcoin remains one of the best. As I always say, Bitcoin wasn't created for the short term; patience is key.

[barbara44]

I'm not expert in TA. But if you believed in the 4 year cycle, then obviously, yes, bear season is going to appear to matter what. I don't know though if Bitcoin investors are going to shift to any other instruments when we go on a full bear run.

For me, it's better to stick on Bitcoin. And as what others said, bear market is the start of something new, it could be the beginning of the buying and holding season. Keep stacking sats, used the DCA method. Hard grind though, but in the end, as the cycle repeats itself, sooner or later there will be halving and then the eventual bull-run.

Yeah, as per the basics of any market, you cannot be right all the times on spotting its pattern or cycle. Still, when we are confident about the breaching of four year cycle this time, market may surprise us through exact copy of previous cycles. So being prepared still be confident on bitcoin may help me at least and I suggest the same to everyone.

Honestly I will not mind if I happen to see another 80% fall from the ATH like all previous cycles but I will treat those all price levels as a discounted purchase for my DCA. Even if bitcoin stays stagnant and slowly moving to $150k then I will be still happy because I have been into DCA for years. There cannot be anything which is inevitable in bitcoin market, so I will simply focus on my routines and nothing specially needed for me because of we are around the end of a bullish year.

[Fiatless]

But about now, I do not expect the price of bitcoin to increase significantly, but bitcoin is doing good, I expected the price to fall more than this by this time but it is not falling but getting back to at least $90000.

I am with you in this. I don't expect the price of Bitcoin to hit another ATH this year. The news of the interest rate cuts by the US Fed has contributed to the positive outlook of the market over the past few days. The market is gradually going down due to high outflows. My expectations is that the price might not exceed $100k till the end of this year. We might also see a price increase earlier next year before we enter the bear market.