Bitcoin: Is the Next Crash Inevitable?

[Coyster]

Investors have other places to put their money besides BTC. They're looking at stocks, gold, and especially silver—assets that have delivered returns significantly higher than Bitcoin's this year.

Investors do have places to put their money, particularly in precious metals. And it makes sense to invest in precious metals (gold and silver), the geopolitical tension is palpable, governments are stockpiling gold and these assets are safe haven investments, so why not.

That said, i do not think a large sell-off of bitcoin is on the cards, even though it is hard to predict the direction of the bitcoin market and if we are still on course with the typical cycle. That is the thing many investors are trying so hard to understand, if we are in a bear market just yet and if we would experience a bear market similar to one in the past, we'll have to watch and find out.

[aoluain]

Ok, so I'm not sure why there is so much worry about what is happening with
the market, we are kind of on schedule post halving for a 'Bear market' - surely
I'm not the only one who has been half expecting this?

Investors pulling out is a normal reaction, some/most of those pulling out are
only interested in profits and will move those to wherever suits but they will
be back when the Bulls return.

[Zaguru12]

Ok, so I'm not sure why there is so much worry about what is happening with
the market, we are kind of on schedule post halving for a 'Bear market' - surely
I'm not the only one who has been half expecting this?

Investors pulling out is a normal reaction, some/most of those pulling out are
only interested in profits and will move those to wherever suits but they will
be back when the Bulls return.

Seriously I am not surprise that this is happening even if the historical data is suggesting the entirety of this year to be bullish but if we look way back to when bitcoin got it’s ETF before the halving we had the market creating all time high right before the halving and this directly signifies that the market has had a very prolonged bullish period and it actually means that the bearish trend will be occurring before the usual time.

I usually tell people that all this institutions are simply here to make profit off the market and go.

[Asuspawer09]

Market crash at this point is going to be inevitable it is surely going to happened in the coming months or years, because we just have a huge momentum in the past month and even last year skyrocketing the market price of Bitcoin, Without even experiencing a huge pullback so we've been on a long up trend already, and it could be a huge bubble even though there are a lot of hype on it.

Personally think that there was no need to think about it since it is inevetable, that is why we just do DCA to minimize the risk of our investment because it is surely going to be risky if you out everything in one basket,  But if you do DCA you were just accumulating and building your position without worrying even if the market is up or down , focus is still going to be on long term.

[livingfree]

I'm not expert in TA. But if you believed in the 4 year cycle, then obviously, yes, bear season is going to appear to matter what. I don't know though if Bitcoin investors are going to shift to any other instruments when we go on a full bear run.

For me, it's better to stick on Bitcoin. And as what others said, bear market is the start of something new, it could be the beginning of the buying and holding season. Keep stacking sats, used the DCA method. Hard grind though, but in the end, as the cycle repeats itself, sooner or later there will be halving and then the eventual bull-run.

It's best to simply stick with Bitcoin.

Most of us have been with it for how many times and we just did either nothing or accumulate more. Selling isn't an option but no one can stop a person if they want to sell for important needs.

That's the only time someone has to sell when they are in need of it and that's the best option for them because they have no other source to get that fund.

The cycle is happening and it is inevitable and we can prepare for that before it arrives.

[Alpen]

You gotta realize gold and silver is touching an all time high after so long while stock index is not too far from all time high as well. A smart investor won't invest in an overvalued asset and they'd try to rotate their profit.

If anything, they are the one that gonna invest in bitcoin not the other way around.

You are right, an all-time high is often a reason for a price pullback. However, the correction might be short-lived. In the S&P 500 chart you attached to your post, it is clearly visible how the index consistently updated its highs for years after only minor corrections. More significant drops occurred only once every three to four years.

[Alpen]

What I know is that it will be difficult for gold and silver to go 10x than for bitcoin to go 10x. Also it will be good to know that bitcoin is a store of value. Bitcoin has proven this times without number.

But about now, I do not expect the price of bitcoin to increase significantly, but bitcoin is doing good, I expected the price to fall more than this by this time but it is not falling but getting back to at least $90000.

Silver and gold ALREADY went up 10x. Look at the charts. Silver demonstrated this level of growth in the first decade of the 21st century, and gold reached this level over the first 20 years of the new century.

Silver could repeat that 10x growth over the course of the third decade. Plus, the precious metal has a centuries-long history, while Bitcoin’s history will end with the emergence of quantum computers

Ant crash due to bitcoin performance could be inevitable as we are getting close to the end of the year and launching into another year, which is believed that by 2026, the season for bull run must have been done and we are now on another season, which may renders the market more volatile and also into another season as we may have it, but before all these starts, we may be in the bull run between now and the end of this year 2025 which we only have few days left for the year to round up, so i will expect that we get positioned for either bull run or a little more fall by the end of the month.

"I think the problem is that Bitcoin doesn't want to rally right now, precisely when the Santa Claus Rally is unfolding in traditional markets. Simply put, when the stock market correction eventually hits, Bitcoin will just continue its decline, completely losing its chance for growth. That will happen in January or February. Spring will then finish off the BTC price for good. This is the law of market seasonality

[PrivacyG]

Silver could repeat that 10x growth over the course of the third decade. Plus, the precious metal has a centuries-long history, while Bitcoin’s history will end with the emergence of quantum computers

If Bitcoin was Secured from all of the threats so far and has lived well past the age a lot of Politicians and Governments wished, why would it not survive the Quantum Computing era particularly considering we know about the threat way before it becomes an actual threat.  If Quantum Computing came all of a sudden with a significant vulnerability it would be a different thing.

Silver and Gold are not protected entirely either.  If you want to take the traditional way and purchase Silver Coins and Ingots you would realize how bad things are when you decide to sell it, not to purchase it.  Because no body will give you a good Price.

Not to mention the Precious Metal Market is on a high probably because Fiat seems to lose stability a lot lately and a lot of fear is growing.  Overall, Bitcoin is still dominating pretty much all Assets in long term returns.

[Iranus]

I usually tell people that all this institutions are simply here to make profit off the market and go.

They're just like us, they're all here for profit. We haven't left yet because we haven't achieved our goal.

But even more sadly, many of us naively believe we're here to support and promote the global adoption of bitcoin. Many people were even more naive, believing that these organizations would never sell their bitcoin, and thinking that this time would be different.

I wouldn't be surprised if there's a massive outflow of capital from ETFs next year, and triggering a devastating bear market. But as aoluain said, they will be back when the market starts to rise again. That's the nature of the financial market.

[TastyChillySauce00]

Silver could repeat that 10x growth over the course of the third decade. Plus, the precious metal has a centuries-long history, while Bitcoin’s history will end with the emergence of quantum computers

Pretty bold claim there, do you think bitcoin will just not upgrade if quantum computing is a threat? Post-Quantum cryptography already there and bitcoin just need to upgrade.
The fud about quantum computing has been repeated over and over again but ultimately bitcoin still going up. People are confident that bitcoin can solve the quantum computing problem.

We don't even know what state of quantum computing currently is but estimated arrival is between 2030-2040 there are plenty of times left.

[X-ray]

You are right, an all-time high is often a reason for a price pullback. However, the correction might be short-lived. In the S&P 500 chart you attached to your post, it is clearly visible how the index consistently updated its highs for years after only minor corrections. More significant drops occurred only once every three to four years.

Might look that way because I used maximum timeframe and the fact that S&P500 keep printing new ATH is true however, you can easily figure out times where S&P500 need some time before recovery.

If we are talking about new all time high on the long term, even BTC is proven to keep printing new ATH every cycle the same. Market is all about rotating profit at the end of the day.

[Charles-Tim]

Silver and gold ALREADY went up 10x. Look at the charts. Silver demonstrated this level of growth in the first decade of the 21st century, and gold reached this level over the first 20 years of the new century.

I did not mean where they are coming from, but I mean nthe present price now and if they can go 10x fast than bitcoin.

Silver could repeat that 10x growth over the course of the third decade. Plus, the precious metal has a centuries-long history, while Bitcoin’s history will end with the emergence of quantum computers

Silver was a very good asset. It is a store of value but its grow is slow as gold is taking that from the metals.

Bitcoin history will end with the emergence of quantum computers? This is one of the dumbest posts that I have read today. Quantum computers that will crash bitcoin will crash the banks and many other working areas. All the passwords used today will also likely be crashed by quantum computers.

[Coyster]

whiile Bitcoin’s history will end with the emergence of quantum computers

No, you are very wrong, to put it in the nicest way possible. There is a threat of quantum computers for sure, particularly with addresses whose public keys have been exposed after spending from it. But bitcoin is not the only thing under threat here. There are many other systems that use cryptographic methods vulnerable to quantum computers.

That said, we'd also transition into a quantum resistant system to protect us from this threat when it actually becomes a reality. You can praise precious metals, which is great, i also do. But you do not have to make false statements about bitcoin in doing so. Just like Peter Schiff does.

[I_Anime]

Investors have other places to put their money besides BTC. They're looking at stocks, gold, and especially silver—assets that have delivered returns significantly higher than Bitcoin's this year.

You gotta realize gold and silver is touching an all time high after so long while stock index is not too far from all time high as well. A smart investor won't invest in an overvalued asset and they'd try to rotate their profit.

If anything, they are the one that gonna invest in bitcoin not the other way around.

Exactly gold has already hitting an ATH this year. And it may be planning to hit another real soon , so it won’t be smart to rush and start investing in such assets that’s already close to the top , and yes there’s chances of it continuing up or going down too, I believe is the panic in the crypto market , that’s also affecting it , to be increasing recently, because some already started selling their bitcoin to buy stock and commodities too . Which suppose to be the other way round , yes the bear market will surely come but am not sure if it’s here now.

[Alpen]

If Bitcoin was Secured from all of the threats so far and has lived well past the age a lot of Politicians and Governments wished, why would it not survive the Quantum Computing era particularly considering we know about the threat way before it becomes an actual threat.  If Quantum Computing came all of a sudden with a significant vulnerability it would be a different thing.

Sure, we know about the threat. But according to Vitalik Buterin, it becomes a reality by 2028, and Grayscale says 2030.

Can you actually name any specific developments on GitHub from the Bitcoin or Ethereum developers regarding this? I haven't seen any, and who knows how long the development cycle would take. Remember, first comes the concept, then the code. So far, I haven't heard of any proposed concepts for quantum protection

[Alpen]

Bitcoin history will end with the emergence of quantum computers? This is one of the dumbest posts that I have read today. Quantum computers that will crash bitcoin will crash the banks and many other working areas. All the passwords used today will also likely be crashed by quantum computers.

The banking system is centralized. Beyond just passwords, additional verification is always required—ranging from SMS codes to rolling one-time keys (OTP)

[davis196]

The upcoming bear market looks inevitable, but I don't think that there will be a "nosedive price crash", something like the price dropping from 85K USD to 50K USD or lower. There will be a series of moderate price drops, rather than one big price crash. My expectations about the FOMC meeting and the Federal Reserve interest rate cuts pumping the crypto markets were not met. The bull 2024-2025 bull run seems pretty much exhausted and it's time for a crypto winter. And Donald Trump cannot save the cryptocurrency markets with his bullish statements this time.

[Alex077]

  On top of everything else, there are solid reasons to believe Japan might dump Bitcoin again this time around.
On December 19, the Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates by 25 bps - and let’s be clear, this would be the first rate hike in 10 years.
 https://x.com/coinbureau/status/1999876970742428112?s=46&t=V07IM8b232m93jXsNncAog
Worth remembering:
 Several previous BoJ rate hikes were followed by BTC dropping more than 20%. That’s not coincidence-level stuff.
So tread carefully. This market could get wild and messy, and mostly to the downside.
 Personally, I think the recent flush down to 85k is very much tied to this factor.
 That said, it’s not a carbon copy of past cycles. Institutional inflows via BTC ETFs could soften the blow this time compared to earlier rate-hike shocks.
 

[STT]

From what I've seen posted, BTC has to beat 100k to defeat this level of selling since the top.  There is a volume weighted average that is posted that high, a ceiling overhead to resist any attempts higher.
  What could happen is resolution by time and BTC goes sideways, eventually surpassing the sellers with consistency at a flat price level.
  I still think its far too simple to call it a straight negative movement, I expect attempts upwards and better judgement as to direction once those are defeated or resolved vs the negative trend from the ATH.

[Dave1]

If Bitcoin was Secured from all of the threats so far and has lived well past the age a lot of Politicians and Governments wished, why would it not survive the Quantum Computing era particularly considering we know about the threat way before it becomes an actual threat.  If Quantum Computing came all of a sudden with a significant vulnerability it would be a different thing.

Sure, we know about the threat. But according to Vitalik Buterin, it becomes a reality by 2028, and Grayscale says 2030.

Can you actually name any specific developments on GitHub from the Bitcoin or Ethereum developers regarding this? I haven't seen any, and who knows how long the development cycle would take. Remember, first comes the concept, then the code. So far, I haven't heard of any proposed concepts for quantum protection

I don't know if this is the one you are looking for:

https://github.com/cryptoquick/bips/blob/e186b52cff5344c789bc5996de86697e62244323/bip-p2qrh.mediawiki

But I do agree that they are looking like 2030 that majority believes that quantum computing  could become a reality to break Bitcoin's code. So it could be a major news if that so happens and could put a big dump or the price crashing.

However, if devs was able to mitigate it, then we can still recover from that crash and be back to normal.