World of confusion

[Yaunfitda]

People have something to say but it doesn't mean that they will always be right. I'd probably mind my own business if we all just be hearing these kind of things ven if it came from huge people we know in crypto. That's why it's best to limit the noise especially to an uncertain market like we are witnessing right now. I'd be better watch the data over someone claiming "this" or "that" statement.

Everyone has his or her opinion on the market, but no one can really predict where the price will go. So perhaps that could be the first step to accept those people but in the end it is still up to us to believed them or not. The good thing is that there are "data" that we can study by ourselves and then make our own conclusions. If by any chance our conclusion are here then don't take it very hard on ourselves. That is again the nature of Bitcoin market, very volatile, lots of noise behind, news that we need to read between the lines. Also market is open 24x7 so this make the market very dynamic and change in like very hour or so.

[Y3shot]

Normally, people will always say what they think about Bitcoin because it is all about speculation. However, most times, whatever people may predict about Bitcoin doesn't really bother me because it won't change what we will see in the end. When people make their own assumptions, it is just to watch and never to be convinced by those assumptions because Bitcoin can’t be predicted; it is just full of surprises. That is why it is important to have an understanding, as this is what will sustain you in the market when people come up with their opinions about the price of Bitcoin. Many people who don’t have a good knowledge of Bitcoin will be misled by speculations.

[Die_empty]

But as they are saying it, other people will be saying another thing. Example is this news that I have just read: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-four-year-cycle-politics-liquidity-10x-research. This is not the first of such news.

Next year will come and we are going to clearly know people that are right. But if bitcoin make it back to $50000 to $60000 before another bull market, that is winter season.

The people who are saying that the Bitcoin cycle will be determined by the US election are wrong. The reason why Bitcoin reacted to the US election was that Donald Trump used it for his campaign. The next elections might not have the same impact on the price.

Interest rate cut is gradually losing its influence on the Bitcoin price. We say that a few of the recent Interest rate cuts didn't influence the price of Bitcoin.

I agree that one of the major factors that will keep influencing the Bitcoin price is ETF inflows.

Since Bitcoin's price is determined by diverse political and economic conditions, we don't know what the future holds.

[Emitdama]

It is difficult to say exactly what will happen to the price of Bitcoin in the future, but what we can say is only a guess. We are moving towards a bear market, as the Bitcoin price is coming to an end of its bull season, so the price of Bitcoin is naturally correcting. However, if the price of Bitcoin corrects in the Bitcoin market, the demand for buying by investors will increase, because investors will then buy more Bitcoin to increase their holdings. In this case, if the price of Bitcoin corrects, it will be winter for investors.

I am hearing this from the last month but still do not really see strong bearish signs. I still feel like the markets might recover and continue to upwards journey. In between I was really hesitant but now I feel somewhat confident. As you said, this will be individual opinions and we can't really predict what is going to happen next.

This will be a lucky guess but sometimes with luck, I love to involve real-world analysis as well which makes it easier for me to make such decisions. I am not that confident but somewhat feel like the markets might remain stagnant for a while and after that they will start rising as institutions start showing interest again. As OP said, we all have different opinions so I do not really expect others to have similar opinions. I would in fact love to hear some opposite opinions because it will only make things way more interesting.

[Pandu Geddon]

Normally, people will always say what they think about Bitcoin because it is all about speculation. However, most times, whatever people may predict about Bitcoin doesn't really bother me because it won't change what we will see in the end. When people make their own assumptions, it is just to watch and never to be convinced by those assumptions because Bitcoin can’t be predicted; it is just full of surprises. That is why it is important to have an understanding, as this is what will sustain you in the market when people come up with their opinions about the price of Bitcoin. Many people who don’t have a good knowledge of Bitcoin will be misled by speculations.

If you don’t dwell too much on other people’s speculations, it will be better. Focus and strengthen yourself on your own plans and speculations. That’s better. 
But some people can’t do that, predictions from well-known figures sometimes do influence planning. Just like anticipated news can affect the market. 
We will never really know whose predictions will be accurate. Everyone speculates based on their own understanding. So you also have the choice not to follow anyone’s predictions and just trust your own.

[Zigabel]

It is as usual, the world full of people that will say something, but as they are saying something, another people will be saying the opposite.

Last week was new people saying that bitcoin 4 year cycle is over, example is CZ the former CEO of Binance. Another example is JPMorgan analyst that said no crypto winter coming. There have been more than 5 people that are well known that I know that have said this, but most of them said it earlier.

But as they are saying it, other people will be saying another thing. Example is this news that I have just read: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-four-year-cycle-politics-liquidity-10x-research. This is not the first of such news.

Next year will come and we are going to clearly know people that are right. But if bitcoin make it back to $50000 to $60000 before another bull market, that is winter season.

I'm not hoping that bitcoin goes down back to $60k or $50k because that will mean a whole lot to many, so many persons will loose a fortune and even institutions will be at huge losses that i doubt they are wanting to get at this time. Next year will come and i think it is better we just hope for the best from next year rather than waiting to know and see who was right over the other person because in the end who is or was right may not mater as much but the benefit we stand to gain form the movement of seen on the market may be what matters the most for the vast majority.

[Mallampue]

Overall, what these people are saying is also speculation, and no one knows what the future holds. However, we can't just say it's nonsense, because they could say it could happen. We also need to see the indications and conclude that there won't be a cold or bear market next season. Some say that institutional involvement will cause different market fluctuations. The usual patterns we see may also differ based on different supply and demand.

I'm quite confident about this; Bitcoin will still have its four-year cycle pattern, but what's missing here is that the overall market won't follow Bitcoin, specifically, altcoins won't follow Bitcoin's movements.

[Rockson1]

Normally, people will always say what they think about Bitcoin because it is all about speculation. However, most times, whatever people may predict about Bitcoin doesn't really bother me because it won't change what we will see in the end. When people make their own assumptions, it is just to watch and never to be convinced by those assumptions because Bitcoin can’t be predicted; it is just full of surprises. That is why it is important to have an understanding, as this is what will sustain you in the market when people come up with their opinions about the price of Bitcoin. Many people who don’t have a good knowledge of Bitcoin will be misled by speculations.

The lesson here is, we should not allow ourselves to be misled by what we hear about Bitcoin price, sometimes I think people are just doing too much, today you hear this, tomoorow another shit, but I think is  normal because the market is very speculative in nature, anyone can speculate but it actually does not validate anything, if am ask what do I think about the present condition of the market, my answer will be direction, buy and continue buying that will be my answer, there is one good thing noticed about the recent market fluntuation and that is everybody being carried along both long-term and short term investors, currently the market is down a bit long term investors will buy very much at a lower price, short-term investors will buy too and sell once it rises, I don't think anyone should be complaining or be confused this period.

[sunsilk]

Last week was new people saying that bitcoin 4 year cycle is over, example is CZ the former CEO of Binance.

I think it's the opposite with CZ, he's said that this cycle won't be the same as the usual ones that we get. And by 2026, we'll get a supercycle as per his prediction.

Next year will come and we are going to clearly know people that are right. But if bitcoin make it back to $50000 to $60000 before another bull market, that is winter season.

We've heard a lot of predictions already and we should always put a grain of salt to whatever they're saying.

Even if we like the predictions and prices that they're saying. We shouldn't be too confident with it until it happens. So yes, we'll see next year who's accurate and not because Bitcoin has always been unpredictable.

[Ruttoshi]

Everyone is just saying what they like. Nobody knows if bitcoin four years circle is over or not. I'm confused at this point because I don't know if the market is bearish or bullish currently. I believe that next year will clear our doubts about the market.

This was how people were saying that there will be no bear market because big tech companies and government have started adopting bitcoin as their reserve. But look at where the price of bitcoin is. As long as there are traders and investors, bitcoin will always have a bearish period and a bull run.

[Darker45]

Everyone is just saying what they like. Nobody knows if bitcoin four years circle is over or not. I'm confused at this point because I don't know if the market is bearish or bullish currently. I believe that next year will clear our doubts about the market.

This was how people were saying that there will be no bear market because big tech companies and government have started adopting bitcoin as their reserve. But look at where the price of bitcoin is. As long as there are traders and investors, bitcoin will always have a bearish period and a bull run.

What's so confusing about the current market? However we look at it, how can we consider it bullish? Just a couple of months ago, the price was $126,000. A month later, it goes down to $101,000. Today, the price is $86,000. That's $40,000 or more than 31% lower. Isn't that enough indication that we're currently in a bear market?

Whatever that's said about companies and governments adopting Bitcoin reserves is pointless if it doesn't reflect in the price. We may not be in a crypto winter, but we're certainly in a bear market right now. That's what the numbers are clearly saying.

[philipma1957]

Everyone is just saying what they like. Nobody knows if bitcoin four years circle is over or not. I'm confused at this point because I don't know if the market is bearish or bullish currently. I believe that next year will clear our doubts about the market.

This was how people were saying that there will be no bear market because big tech companies and government have started adopting bitcoin as their reserve. But look at where the price of bitcoin is. As long as there are traders and investors, bitcoin will always have a bearish period and a bull run.

What's so confusing about the current market? However we look at it, how can we consider it bullish? Just a couple of months ago, the price was $126,000. A month later, it goes down to $101,000. Today, the price is $86,000. That's $40,000 or more than 31% lower. Isn't that enough indication that we're currently in a bear market?

Whatever that's said about companies and governments adopting Bitcoin reserves is pointless if it doesn't reflect in the price. We may not be in a crypto winter, but we're certainly in a bear market right now. That's what the numbers are clearly saying.

No time matters Jan 13 would take us from a correction to a bear.

You can disagree but it is simply correct needs to  last 2 months then it's a bear.

[Accardo]

What's so confusing about the current market? However we look at it, how can we consider it bullish? Just a couple of months ago, the price was $126,000. A month later, it goes down to $101,000. Today, the price is $86,000. That's $40,000 or more than 31% lower. Isn't that enough indication that we're currently in a bear market?

Whatever that's said about companies and governments adopting Bitcoin reserves is pointless if it doesn't reflect in the price. We may not be in a crypto winter, but we're certainly in a bear market right now. That's what the numbers are clearly saying.

Unbelievable, btc price is no longer noticeable, 86k doesn't look bearish, though it is, but the price move to 126k is still jaw dropping to most bitcoiners, they can't comprehend it, to most people it look to them as a fake price pump, (positive trend) everyone knew where Bitcoin price should normalize was at 110k threshold, the 15k additional increase, came as a bonus.

Remember in 2021 when btc did 60k and above, I probably drew the price line to be 50k, same as this changes, Bitcoin doing 120k and above still left me saying btc is at 100k.Truly, Bitcoin price has endured the 100k and units price tag for a while, than it stood still during the 100k and tens days, basically, the way traders think, it's quite unclear what to fathom of what Bitcoin is doing right now based on price.

But the countdown starts for most people when it start going below 100k, like now... should the price go below 80k then the bearish season would be much noticeable. There is a chance it'll cross back to 100k, but, whatever the price is of bitcoin, bearish or bullish, Bitcoin is in a big mood.

[yhiaali3]

Marcus Thelin may have a point; he's not alone. Many believe that the Bitcoin cycle, which is fundamentally based on halving, has changed due to the introduction of numerous factors and variables.

As we know, mining returns decrease after each halving, so it's natural that the halving effect diminishes over time, in addition to other significant variables such as Bitcoin ETFs, large institutions, and other factors.

In the end we cannot definitively predict a change in the Bitcoin cycle until we wait and see for ourselves in the coming period.

[Jegileman]

For me I align for now that the historical data isn’t broken yet even though the current market trend will actually suggest that, I expect it to go against more historical trends before I fully say its actually broken for now.

The bitcoin market generally operates as the four years cycle and will at some point change and it will no more be the basics of how the Bitcoin market operates again. We just have to see a major change, maybe this season to approve of such and see the bitcoin cycle taken on another dynamic level before we can satisfactorily feel contended that it has actually changed. Many changes have being witnessed in this bull cycle but until now, the market is still trying to maintain the past historical trend. One of the major change that will really bring about a change of this is we going into 2026 and Bitcoin still breaks and achieve a new all time high.

[JeffBrad12]

What's so confusing about the current market? However we look at it, how can we consider it bullish? Just a couple of months ago, the price was $126,000. A month later, it goes down to $101,000. Today, the price is $86,000. That's $40,000 or more than 31% lower. Isn't that enough indication that we're currently in a bear market?

to be honest if we're in bear market already and price just dumped to $86k that's arguably good bear market in a way that it doesn't dump too deep. I could understand if that's actually the case since we got reserve, etf, adoptions and so on you name it going on to absorb the sell off.
Even $70k is still arguably a good starting point for the next bullrun so that we can reach $200k. Though, I don't think we're in a bearish market yet.

[Cryptohygenic]

Next year will come and we are going to clearly know people that are right. But if bitcoin make it back to $50000 to $60000 before another bull market, that is winter season.

And more confusion there is that those who would get it right by the next year had sometimes said the opposite before speculating on the other side. So after much being disappointed with there so analytical professionalisms skills, it all feels like some kind of market entertainments where no one knowledgeability about studying the phase and short term volatilities of bitcoin can be reliable.
So don't even think those who will get it right at the clock of the time is genus. They are just lucky like the traders who assumes irrationally while their faiths are not strong enough to be rely on.

I don't think the correction will be as deep as the figures mentioned above. BTC's current price is $86,300, and even if it were to plummet further, some would still hold on.

This situation is simply the result of post-interest rate cut rumors and analysis presented in several media posts, which have caused some people to panic and sell as a precaution, not an unreasonable dump. This is only a temporary drop before a reversal, as I've read that BTC will rebound to $104,000.

This is a speculation section where each and every future whether short or long term predictions are all gesture, it is so unreasonable to assume ones state of analytical inputs will be better to be realistic.
Bitcoin price has been so amazing this period and while we are expecting a particular trend at a given time, we are always getting the opposite or at the nearly.
Honestly if we go by the Ops assumption that when the price falls within that range, we are definitely backing to the winter market as though but we don't have to be pessimistic about it because, it is a mere or likely blind speculations just as others even the professional analysts had said but failed it.

[fuguebtc]

I'm not hoping that bitcoin goes down back to $60k or $50k because that will mean a whole lot to many, so many persons will loose a fortune and even institutions will be at huge losses that i doubt they are wanting to get at this time. Next year will come and i think it is better we just hope for the best from next year rather than waiting to know and see who was right over the other person because in the end who is or was right may not mater as much but the benefit we stand to gain form the movement of seen on the market may be what matters the most for the vast majority.

However, just because we all expect good things to come next year, or believe that Bitcoin won’t drop to $60k, doesn’t mean Bitcoin will live up to those expectations or move the way we want. Bitcoin's movement depends on supply and demand, as well as macroeconomic factors, not on crowd expectations.

Bitcoin's movement is beyond our control and we follow the market, not the other way around. Therefore, instead of just hoping and waiting, create a contingency plan and prepare for all possible scenarios.

[SquallLeonhart]

There are billions of minds in this world and everyone will have their own opinion. We can't really rely on individual opinions because that is what they feel about the markets. That's the reason why we should always try to make our own analysis so we can predict the future direction of the markets. Yes, taking reference from well known personalities might help us make an informed decision but I would personally still not rely solely on their decision. There will be conflict of opinions always in almost every field. This is not new and has been going on since centuries now.

We should consider the market sentiments and the fear and greed index and it will help us better instead of focusing on the opinions posted by well known people. The fear and greed index has worked for me in most cases and that is what I would prefer to use after analysing the market on my own.

[Darker45]

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No time matters Jan 13 would take us from a correction to a bear.

You can disagree but it is simply correct needs to  last 2 months then it's a bear.

Well, a correction maybe. Perhaps we're at a point where a correction could be over or it could turn into a bear market.

My point is that the downward movement has been sustained for around 2 months already. And we're not just talking about a 10% to 20% dip. We've lost more than 30% within such period. We lost $120,000 in October and we never got it back. And then we lost $100,000 in November and we never hit it again since then. I hope we'll be seeing $90,000 once more before 2026 ends.