Would a red candle for 2025 end the 4 year cycle debate?

[RoseAPT]

THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT
I think even before a potential red candle forming for 2025, people already knew "this time is different" due to the ETFs, reaching ATH before halving, and tailwinds on the legislative front at least in the US. But there was, and still is, considerable debate if the 4 year cycle is still in tact.

HALVING DOESN'T IMPACT TOTAL SUPPLY MUCH ANYMORE
Most already know that new supply being halved every 4 years make an immaterial impact by now, and that price is generally dictated by supply and demand dynamics at this point (obfuscated somewhat by perps trading). Moreover, we haven't had a FTX or Mt Gox-like contagion just yet.

NO CONTAGIONS THIS CYCLE -- YET
Perhaps details will emerge about 10/10 liquidation event, and maybe some Market Maker did blow up, but at this point, it looks more likely that it was just a overreaction to the Trump tariffs on China that triggered ADL on many platforms. Not really any evidence to support a major firm or exchange blowing up.

The only "contagion" I can think of is the Trump administration's conflict of interest within the broader crypto industry, and the perception of such being amplified by prominent Democrats, and crypto skeptics. I'm not too sure this offsets some of the legislative wins like the GENIUS and upcoming CLARITY acts, or the more lenient SEC stance, but I still view Trump's association with crypto as the biggest headwind for 2025, and into 2026. Rumors suggest that the meme coin launches and WLFI is one of the main reasons why CLARITY act hasn't gotten broad support yet from Congress.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR 2026?
Yes, I know we are all HODLing forever, but it's still wise to try and get good entries and try to forecast what to make of the 4 year cycle "breaking" for the first time. Is it "up forever, Laura," from here on out? Or did this cycle get front loaded somewhat due to the debauchery of the Solana meme cycle that preceded the BTC bull run, and all the other tailwinds we got, as previously mentioned?

I personally think we hit ATH at some point in 2026, but I do not know if there will be a sharp correction after that. Perhaps it's all contingent on the Clarity act and the midterm elections, but in general, I am bullish.

More importantly, I would be even MORE bullish if 2025 ends slightly red (under $94k). It should reduce the chatter somewhat about 4 year cycles, but not totally eliminate those who wish to will it into existence (self fulfilling prophecy).

Thoughts?

[hd49728]

THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT
I think even before a potential red candle forming for 2025, people already knew "this time is different" due to the ETFs, reaching ATH before halving, and tailwinds on the legislative front at least in the US. But there was, and still is, considerable debate if the 4 year cycle is still in tact.

"This time is different" is a most precious saying in any financial market because in most of times, this time is not different than what happened in past times. So if you bet on "this time is different" and make all your plans and actions with this "this time is different" assumption, you will have very high risk of failure and in financial market, failure means loss.

I don't bet on "this time is different" and I do my plan and actions based on evidence, on market history. If "this time is different", will I lose my initial capital, no I won't. If "this time is not different", I will avoid severe loss and by having good plan, I can take advantage of "this time IS NOT different".

Look at this and build up your plan, remember of expensive cost with "this time is different".
https://charts.bitbo.io/yearly-candles/

[arzuo]

Nobody able to talk exectly about BTC price ( TA ) red cancle.
But as a market history price can little bit down and price will sure up and break ATH 123,000 $ with next cypcle ( halving) also if any good Law and situation are coming in the market then market able to go up and touch again the recent ATH.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

Thoughts?

I don't know what red candle you're expecting with only 10 days left until the end of the year. There have been red candles, and the little time left until the end of the year is not going to change the outlook much.

The general consensus is that yes, cycles as we knew them are over. But here I see two conflicting views: the first says that it's because cycles don't actually depend so much on halvings as on liquidity, and that as liquidity enters in 2026, we will have a bullish year; and the other, more pessimistic view is that we have already seen the peak of the cycle at around $126,000 and from now on we are in crypto winter.

[Charles-Tim]

Only what can be used to know that the four year cycle has ended is what will happen in 2026, if we have not seen 2026 yet, do not believe that the 4 year cycle has ended. Many people are saying already that the cycle has ended but some people are also saying the cycle has not ended. 2026 is about to begin and we would know which one is correct.

I don't know what red candle you're expecting with only 10 days left until the end of the year. There have been red candles, and the little time left until the end of the year is not going to change the outlook much.

Maybe but bitcoin can increase or decrease at anytime within a short period of time.

[Darker45]

What's the relevance of a red candle within the year that could end the 4-year cycle debate? Bitcoin is already down more than 31% since the ATH. A red candle isn't anymore necessary. On the contrary, what could end the 4-year cycle debate is a green candle in 2026.

Except the fact that a new ATH was reached shortly before the halving, it seems the 4-year cycle is still intact. According to it, we should already be experiencing a correction by now, which is what's happening. That's following an ATH hit more than a year after the halving, which also happened in October. What's happening right now falls within the 4-year cycle prediction.

If a green candle occurs in 2026, especially 2 years after the halving, which brings the price to a new ATH, that means the 4-year cycle is dead.

[hugeblack]

the impact of the four cycles would be less pronounced, as the effect of a supply decrease diminishes every four years. While it's true that the last Bitcoin will be mined in 2100, more than 95% of all Bitcoins will have been mined by 2050, so until then, the impact will be negligible.

However, this doesn't mean we can predict what will happen in 2026 based on what happened in 2025.

[Bastketsrus]

THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT
I think even before a potential red candle forming for 2025, people already knew "this time is different" due to the ETFs, reaching ATH before halving, and tailwinds on the legislative front at least in the US. But there was, and still is, considerable debate if the 4 year cycle is still in tact.

HALVING DOESN'T IMPACT TOTAL SUPPLY MUCH ANYMORE
Most already know that new supply being halved every 4 years make an immaterial impact by now, and that price is generally dictated by supply and demand dynamics at this point (obfuscated somewhat by perps trading). Moreover, we haven't had a FTX or Mt Gox-like contagion just yet.

NO CONTAGIONS THIS CYCLE -- YET
Perhaps details will emerge about 10/10 liquidation event, and maybe some Market Maker did blow up, but at this point, it looks more likely that it was just a overreaction to the Trump tariffs on China that triggered ADL on many platforms. Not really any evidence to support a major firm or exchange blowing up.

The only "contagion" I can think of is the Trump administration's conflict of interest within the broader crypto industry, and the perception of such being amplified by prominent Democrats, and crypto skeptics. I'm not too sure this offsets some of the legislative wins like the GENIUS and upcoming CLARITY acts, or the more lenient SEC stance, but I still view Trump's association with crypto as the biggest headwind for 2025, and into 2026. Rumors suggest that the meme coin launches and WLFI is one of the main reasons why CLARITY act hasn't gotten broad support yet from Congress.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR 2026?
Yes, I know we are all HODLing forever, but it's still wise to try and get good entries and try to forecast what to make of the 4 year cycle "breaking" for the first time. Is it "up forever, Laura," from here on out? Or did this cycle get front loaded somewhat due to the debauchery of the Solana meme cycle that preceded the BTC bull run, and all the other tailwinds we got, as previously mentioned?

I personally think we hit ATH at some point in 2026, but I do not know if there will be a sharp correction after that. Perhaps it's all contingent on the Clarity act and the midterm elections, but in general, I am bullish.

More importantly, I would be even MORE bullish if 2025 ends slightly red (under $94k). It should reduce the chatter somewhat about 4 year cycles, but not totally eliminate those who wish to will it into existence (self fulfilling prophecy).

Thoughts?

Yeah, I mostly agree. ETFs and regulation really changed the structure, even if the 4-year cycle isn’t fully dead yet. Halving matters less now and without a real contagion this run feels more demand-driven.

2026 ATH makes more sense to me than straight up only. A slightly red 2025 could actually be healthy and reset expectations. Still bullish long term, just more macro-driven than past cycles.

[stompix]

the impact of the four cycles would be less pronounced, as the effect of a supply decrease diminishes every four years.

What effect?
In 2021 in November we were printing roughly $60 million worth of Bitcoin!
The supply growth went down to ~$20 million in 2023, after the halving, it went up to $50 million a day in less than 6 months after!
So...what role did the supply decrease play when it went down down and down and the price didn't budge?

And no, I don't care about the number of Bitcoin mined, nobody does, what it matters is how much those are worth and how much money you need to inject in the economy to compensate if those are sold!

[Cointxz]

Nobody able to talk exectly about BTC price ( TA ) red cancle.
But as a market history price can little bit down and price will sure up and break ATH 123,000 $ with next cypcle ( halving) also if any good Law and situation are coming in the market then market able to go up and touch again the recent ATH.

Bitcoin is pumping even without Bitcoin halving. That event surely create a spark for the hype but the recent development for institutional investors and ETF pump Bitcoin to the highest level.

Bitcoin cycle is already not consistent since it’s pumping without following the 4 year cycle and it doesn’t dump terrible unlike before.

The volatility is not that high compared before during bear season.

[shield132]

THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT
I think even before a potential red candle forming for 2025, people already knew "this time is different" due to the ETFs, reaching ATH before halving, and tailwinds on the legislative front at least in the US. But there was, and still is, considerable debate if the 4 year cycle is still in tact.

"This time is different" is a most precious saying in any financial market because in most of times, this time is not different than what happened in past times. So if you bet on "this time is different" and make all your plans and actions with this "this time is different" assumption, you will have very high risk of failure and in financial market, failure means loss.

I don't bet on "this time is different" and I do my plan and actions based on evidence, on market history. If "this time is different", will I lose my initial capital, no I won't. If "this time is not different", I will avoid severe loss and by having good plan, I can take advantage of "this time IS NOT different".

Look at this and build up your plan, remember of expensive cost with "this time is different".
https://charts.bitbo.io/yearly-candles/

This time is really different. In 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin started to rise after halving. Have you seen Bitcoin reach an ATH before halving? No, we haven't seen that because the situation was different. We had exchanges and less regulations, also the less easy possibilities of buying and holding Bitcoins. Bitcoin Spot ETF approvals had a huge positive impact on Bitcoin's price because it made the possibility of owning Bitcoins easier and also it leaves you with less responsibility over taking care of your coins. Spot ETF approval outweighed halving's effect. Spot ETFs made it possible to increase the flow of US dollars into Bitcoin and it resulted in a huge capital flow. There is a talk and active willpower about creating Bitcoin strategic reserves, which will change the old cycle of Bitcoin even further. My point is that the market rises similarly like before but the halving is not a trigger point anymore as it was before.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

Some times history may repeated itself and while in some other cases, we may have it slightly different from the usual, because bitcoin will always remain to be the consistent digital currency it has always, but when we are dealing with the market personal, we should not only focuses on a single indicator, instead, we need to rely on as many as possible for the market in other to be well positioned for it as we stand to be more profitable by doing the right, anything can change at anytime, we should not rely only by single indicator, but compare all in respect to the chart performance and history altogether.

[o48o]

1. THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT
-cut-
2. HALVING DOESN'T IMPACT TOTAL SUPPLY MUCH ANYMORE
-cut-
3. NO CONTAGIONS THIS CYCLE -- YET
-cut-

4: WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR 2026?
-cut-

1: This is just a meme phrase including all crypto markets. Obviously more and more money has been flowing to crypto, so it's by definition always different. That however never prevented bear market. And that seems to be happening like a clockwork.

2: Total supply isn't halving or being affected. What's being halved is the block reward. And when mining rewards get halved, it affects to price, because it doesn't make sense to do same amount of work with half amount of money.

3: Dude, what are you even talking about? We are on the brink of WW3 and global depression. And Bitcoin isn't about Trump or his meme coins.

4: Down we go. No one knows where the bottom is but new 4 year cycle has jus started.