Why this kind of unreasonable prediction?

[Oshosondy]

Why Bitcoin Billionaire Arthur Hayes Expects BTC to Hit $200K by March
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-bitcoin-billionaire-arthur-hayes-165050397.html

He meant March of 2026 which is 3 months away.

The reason he stated:

BitMex founder and Bitcoin billionaire Arthur Hayes says BTC will soon rise to a price of $200,000 before falling back to create a bottom above $124,000.

According to Hayes, the sharp rise in Bitcoin’s price will stem from the Fed’s “Reserve Management Purchases” or RMP, a new operating policy shared by the Fed at its most recent FOMC meeting that he likened to quantitative easing.

To me I think this kind of prediction is unreasonable.

[Wiwo]

Bitcoin speculations give each and everyone the right to speculate the price of Bitcoin,  so let the rich guy be and if any of his followers followed his statement and they take actions, so be it likewise everyone else that sees potential in what he said knowing well how positive alot of us have been since bitcoin did it multiple all time high in 2025, so alot of market analysis are focusing on the last all time high as their benchmark to base their speculation on and if you have that in mind then it means $123,000 will be the lowest price to correct back to of bitcoin mark another bull season with a new all time high price.

I won't say that his speculation is outrightly unreasonable at this point.

We need to wait till the beginning pf 2026 before we can tell which direction this speculation will take although the timing may not be right saying march of 2026 is too early for bitcoin recovery back to the last all time high price of $123k+ and possibly build up the next phase of bull market that could possibly give us 150k- $200k as he speculated.

[liuka]

A billionaire usually says all of them even though they provide data that he thinks is confident in the predicted price, although for me this makes no sense we cannot judge them on the basis of this prediction, it could be that what Arthur said was wrong.

My prediction - it won't happen, especially with only 3 months left, but who knows if there is a sudden surge where buying pressure increases this might happen, it's just that for me it's a bit impossible to happen, some people believe bitcoin can go up at any time.

[fullfitlarry]

Yes, in any case we are already in the bear market. So this kind of prediction is somewhat off already. But you have to think why this kind of individuals still thinks that Bitcoin will go to $200k?

It's obvious that they have invested so much already and they don't want their money to go down the pipe. Nevertheless, for average joe investors, we all know that sooner or later a bear market will appear and base on the cycle, by next year we might see it already.

[Kelward]

The beauty of Bitcoin price speculations is that everybody is entitled to their own opinions and understandings but nobody controls the market on a solid bases. Maybe Arthur Hayes, plans to accumulate Bitcoin massively in March, next year which might cause an upward trend but the question is for how long and will it affect price to skyrocket to $200k? He's probably being emotional for obvious reasons like most of us who expected November and December to be very bullish, we thought that we would have seen ATH between $150k and $200k by now. From the look of things presently I'm not bullish that Bitcoin can reach $200k by March next year but let us watch and see.

[Majestic-milf]

 Op, I think you meant to say "prediction", instead of production.
For me, as long as it's a prediction, there's no need to classify it as unreasonable because that's what it is, a prediction and not something you need to hold the person that said it accountable when it does not happen the way thru said so that's why Arthur Hayes can say what he wants. Hayes has not been know n as the type of guy to fade into the background so when he's not being a co-founder, he's busy making waves in the crypto space as "one of the industry's most consistent and influential macro thinkers" so let him have at it.

[Ruttoshi]

My own speculation is that by January 1st bitcoin price will skyrocket to $250k. Anyone can come up with their own price specifications doesn't mean that it's gon be so. Some of these people are only saying this to encourage themselves and to build their confident in bitcoin or to give people hope on investing in bitcoin.

However, I don't believe it's possible for us to see bitcoin at $200k next year when the market should be bearish. Currently, I don't get myself distracted with all these speculations from different people. I'm focused on building my bitcoin portfolio.

[aylabadia05]

The $200k price point is highly anticipated by those who have been holding for a long time and are still holding because they believe it will reach $150k. Suddenly, the billionaire came and shared his speculation that Bitcoin is expected to rise that high in March, yes, March 2026.

Some on his side believe his speculation because he cites the Federal Reserve's Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) as a factor for the sharp increase, but those more focused on technical analysis will side with those who say Hayes' speculation lacks support.
I would say the same thing—that this doesn't make sense—even though I'm not an expert in technical analysis.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

Are people around the forum a bit tipsy today? Not Christmas yet but people could be driking already because a see quite a few misspellings, more than other days for sure.

Surely, the OP means 'prediction' not 'production'.

And yes, it is unreasonable, and a prediction that I am not going to pay any attention to because it has the same validity as any of ours, and after seeing the failed predictions made by renowned figures in the bitcoin world, I am even less inclined to waste my time thinking about whether a bizarre prediction like this has any basis whatsoever.

[EL MOHA]

However, I don't believe it's possible for us to see bitcoin at $200k next year when the market should be bearish. Currently, I don't get myself distracted with all these speculations from different people. I'm focused on building my bitcoin portfolio.

One thing about speculation is that even though it’s about prediction I think there should at least be something that actually backs it up, on what basis one is actually making the prediction on and why they think it will be going to that price. But usually most of the predictions I have seen on bitcoin price does not have any analysis or basis backing them.

I agree with you that $200k next year will be a price which I don’t see it’s target getting reached not because I don’t expect some bullish trends year but because I think the market will be recovering some lost grounds that it will take time before the price gets there. In the next cycle though probably 2028 I expect us to be just around that price

[justinlamode]

Why Bitcoin Billionaire Arthur Hayes Expects BTC to Hit $200K by March
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-bitcoin-billionaire-arthur-hayes-165050397.html

He meant March of 2026 which is 3 months away.

The reason he stated:

BitMex founder and Bitcoin billionaire Arthur Hayes says BTC will soon rise to a price of $200,000 before falling back to create a bottom above $124,000.

According to Hayes, the sharp rise in Bitcoin’s price will stem from the Fed’s “Reserve Management Purchases” or RMP, a new operating policy shared by the Fed at its most recent FOMC meeting that he likened to quantitative easing.

To me I think this kind of prediction is unreasonable.

This is a wishful thinking that will likely not happen. I know he is entitled to his opinion regarding what he wants the price of Bitcoin to be but it has been proven time without number that you can hardly predict the price of Bitcoin at a given time. Bitcoin may rise from next year but I don't see any fundamental that will push price to over 200% from the current price in just three months.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

Why Bitcoin Billionaire Arthur Hayes Expects BTC to Hit $200K by March
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-bitcoin-billionaire-arthur-hayes-165050397.html

He meant March of 2026 which is 3 months away.

The reason he stated:

BitMex founder and Bitcoin billionaire Arthur Hayes says BTC will soon rise to a price of $200,000 before falling back to create a bottom above $124,000.

According to Hayes, the sharp rise in Bitcoin’s price will stem from the Fed’s “Reserve Management Purchases” or RMP, a new operating policy shared by the Fed at its most recent FOMC meeting that he likened to quantitative easing.

To me I think this kind of prediction is unreasonable.

Do we have to care much on things like this, we have a number of them like that who are busy making speculations that are off the radar, but what can we say about that, we have no choice than to also sit to our own and create time to figure out what the market could possibly turned before, during or even after such period, because not everything we see online or heard people say are true.

[EluguHcman]

He meant March of 2026 which is 3 months away.

The reason he stated:

BitMex founder and Bitcoin billionaire Arthur Hayes says BTC will soon rise to a price of $200,000 before falling back to create a bottom above $124,000.

According to Hayes, the sharp rise in Bitcoin’s price will stem from the Fed’s “Reserve Management Purchases” or RMP, a new operating policy shared by the Fed at its most recent FOMC meeting that he likened to quantitative easing.

To me I think this kind of prediction is unreasonable.

If you get chance to tell this right to his face, I am sure with his level of experience in the Bitcoin prediction market, he would gladly tell you that you are both just speculating (guessing) following the market cycle events, adoption rate (demands and supplies) tied to the previous performances to to d their analysis. Maybe you can utter your own opinion and you will win the conversation if only your predictions is right.

Don't mind me, I overplay too. Lol but truth be told, this same Arthur Hayes had made several speculations this year about the surge of Bitcoin to meet price like $150K-$180 and even $200K before the end of this year while fellow experience analysts like Andrew is disagreeing with him following their expositions of market studies to clear the facts based on their own view.

So I don't just want you to find it too hard understand that any can happen in the short term but while the goal is a succeed and remain in good health conditions, you don't need to hold out expectations all by what someone said.
Perhaps Bitcoin might break new ATH by the first cycle of the year. I believe the pressure order of buyers has not resurrected to encourage volatility yet after the weak wings.
It may also just end an imaginary life.

[coolcoinz]

Hayes is one of those people with completely unreliable prediction history.
In 2023 he was already saying that bitcoin will be at $1m before 2026, so here we are at 8% of his target.
In 2023 he also claimed that bitcoin would reach 70k before 2024 and it got to something like 40k.
In December 2024 Hayes predicted that in January 2025 bitcoin would crash at the time of Trump's inauguration (Jan 20) At the moment of him speaking, bitcoin was at 90k and in January, pumped reaching the peak of 109k exactly on January 20, the day Hayes predicted it to crash! At the end of January it was still above 100k, higher than the price at which Hayes was making his prediction and just 5% below the ATH

His predictions are all over the place and he used to make money from leveraged trading. As I recall, Bitmex was the first exchange offering 100x leverage...

[Cryptohygenic]

A billionaire usually says all of them even though they provide data that he thinks is confident in the predicted price, although for me this makes no sense we cannot judge them on the basis of this prediction, it could be that what Arthur said was wrong.

My prediction - it won't happen, especially with only 3 months left, but who knows if there is a sudden surge where buying pressure increases this might happen, it's just that for me it's a bit impossible to happen, some people believe bitcoin can go up at any time.

Those are basically wealthy economy analysis dudes that out of their educational mindsets and the likely following following past performance with is always repetitive by picking series of market data's to determine such a volatile market movements.
Might might not really know but these influential analysts might only be making these speculations just to drive out psychological minded sentiments which already is part of the scheme to keep traders and short term goalers skeptic when making decisions

[Ndabagi01]

This is not the first of his kind that we’ve seen in this speculative space. So it won’t surprise many like us that have come across many such speculations in the past that from onset of prediction, the person’s speculation will never even come close to happening. This is just like one of the kind of it. We may witness a new era and will be the first of its kind if the market reaches $200K in March 2026. January is fast approaching and if there is no significant move to see the market ends the month on a bullish note, let’s say a $120K, then it makes the prediction even more unrealistic.

[rbynxx]

To me I think this kind of prediction is unreasonable.

Unreasonable or not it's still just a prediction and it doesn't mean it will hit and besides Arthur Hayes was something not to give some attention because he clearly just wanted it from the public. He made some kind of predictions in the past and tbh he's kinda troll on it in the social media world in regards to cryptocurrency.

[aoluain]

Like others have posted I too dont think its an unreasonable thing to expect
a market rise scenario from what the FED's Reserve Management Fund move.

The only thing that seems a bit hard to envision is the $200k expected target.

Great news for those who will be taking profits I guess

[Cryptoprincess101]

To me I think this kind of prediction is unreasonable.

I don't know why you think his prediction is unreasonable because $200k is not a difficult price to hit if the market experiences great inflow from the Federal reserve system. We have predicted some actions that can prompt bitcoin price to skyrocket such as Spot bitcoins ETF's approval and US post-election effects, they all impacted on the price so an implementation of Reserve Management Purchases can likely cause the price of bitcoin to experience an uptrend in the next 3 months.

[Dave1]

To me I think this kind of prediction is unreasonable.

I don't know why you think his prediction is unreasonable because $200k is not a difficult price to hit if the market experiences great inflow from the Federal reserve system. We have predicted some actions that can prompt bitcoin price to skyrocket such as Spot bitcoins ETF's approval and US post-election effects, they all impacted on the price so an implementation of Reserve Management Purchases can likely cause the price of bitcoin to experience an uptrend in the next 3 months.

Yeah, but the thing is that the FED printing money might not go to the inflow of Bitcoin as some investors might know that we are in the bear market already. And perhaps those who are in the financial market saw that precious metals, like Silver and Gold could be the best investment for now.

So I doubt that $200k is going to be hit regardless of the printing of money from the US government. Everything has change when the price nosedive to ~$100k. For the majority we are already at the start of the bearish trend and this will continue and be evident at the start of next year.