Bitcoin to Start the New Year Searching for a New Bottom

[Pandu Geddon]

I'm still positive we bounce in the $80k-$90k region even next year so probably it's a distribution phase. What if institutions are just making retail exhausted or they've been into stocks and metals and not yet on risk assets like cryptocurrency? It seems the macro sentiment was bearish for crypto but still hopeful and just hold than panicking.

There is indeed a possibility for Bitcoin to return to $90k-$100k at the beginning of next year. However, the situation must be supported by an adoption that allows the price to surge back to that level. Because there is a possibility that Bitcoin may experience a deeper decline. It is possible that after a price rebound, the overall market trend will change. But it is also possible that the same movement will repeat. After the decline, we will see the price move slowly.

[Pandorak]

Indeed, Bitcoin is currently still in a sideways trend, after previously experiencing a decline to below $100k, a psychological level for both traders and investors. The price even dropped significantly to $81k, although that only resulted in rejection.

I believe that for the time being, Bitcoin's price will remain in a sideways trend. We will see what happens in Q1 2026, with the hope that Bitcoin can rebound and successfully break out above $100k. However, based on technical analysis, the likelihood of Bitcoin dropping to $74k remains quite high.

[serjent05]

Indeed, Bitcoin is currently still in a sideways trend, after previously experiencing a decline to below $100k, a psychological level for both traders and investors. The price even dropped significantly to $81k, although that only resulted in rejection.

I believe that for the time being, Bitcoin's price will remain in a sideways trend. We will see what happens in Q1 2026, with the hope that Bitcoin can rebound and successfully break out above $100k. However, based on technical analysis, the likelihood of Bitcoin dropping to $74k remains quite high.

I think there is a little chance for Bitcoin to rally and recover to $100k.  This sideways seems the sign of the transition of Bitcoin to bearish season.  If there is no catalyst that will hype the Bitcoin market or a new huge investment to come in that will make the sentiment of Bitcoin bullish, then I believe that what you stated about Bitcoin price dropping to sub $80k is very possible.

On the other hand, if the Bitcoin price continues to plummet, this will be a good position for people who are into DCA because they will be buying BTC at a lower price.

[Odohu]

To be honest, the market have confused everyone and for several weeks ahead, it is not clear what the market will be doing. My guess is that the market will remain in consolidation for the most part of Q1 next year before any possible breakout to the down side. If there will be any significant rise, we should expect that from Q3 of next year. The rise can still seek new ATH because the bull run is still far from being over.

[justdimin]

We will see what happens in Q1 2026, with the hope that Bitcoin can rebound and successfully break out above $100k. However, based on technical analysis, the likelihood of Bitcoin dropping to $74k remains quite high.

There were multiple occasions in the past where bitcoin market disobeyed the technical things. I mean to say that we can remain still hopeful about bounce back of bitcoin market because in a new year, there could be more investors and there would be few more government to be joining for forming their bitcoin strategic reserve. Being a hedge, bitcoin must be following gold right now but people are still treating bitcoin similar to USA stock which is the reason we are below $100k level even after lots of Institutions and government have adapted bitcoin.

The third and fourth quarter of 2024 was different in the four year cycle of bitcoin market and this way we may still have chances to have a bullish first and second quarter of 2026.

[tygeade]

Indeed, Bitcoin is currently still in a sideways trend, after previously experiencing a decline to below $100k, a psychological level for both traders and investors. The price even dropped significantly to $81k, although that only resulted in rejection.

I believe that for the time being, Bitcoin's price will remain in a sideways trend. We will see what happens in Q1 2026, with the hope that Bitcoin can rebound and successfully break out above $100k. However, based on technical analysis, the likelihood of Bitcoin dropping to $74k remains quite high.

The moment it dropped under 100k, I knew that it was start of bear run and there was no way of it coming back anytime soon. I am sure that in the future when the bull run happens again (most likely in 2029) we are going to see the price skyrocket like crazy, and maybe even in 2028 we are going to see it be a lot higher, but that doesn't mean that we are going to end up with anything good this year.

The 2025 and 2026 will be bear and because of that we are going to see this be a lot worse. There is no way of it recovering from the situation that we are seeing at the moment and that has to be something that will be very difficult for us and for that reason we need to let it be and not going to matter that much in the end.

[alani123]

If you consider how easily bitcoin went up to 100k then what should we even call a bottom?

I just think BTCUSD will depend too much on other economic factors. If trump can strike deals with china and normalize the trade wars surely it will be a thing to make markets feel more comfortable and this could help BTC also stay at high price levels. Usually in the first months of the year there's a rush to get things done so I'm counting on good news coming.

[rbynxx]

I'm still positive we bounce in the $80k-$90k region even next year so probably it's a distribution phase. What if institutions are just making retail exhausted or they've been into stocks and metals and not yet on risk assets like cryptocurrency? It seems the macro sentiment was bearish for crypto but still hopeful and just hold than panicking.

There is indeed a possibility for Bitcoin to return to $90k-$100k at the beginning of next year. However, the situation must be supported by an adoption that allows the price to surge back to that level. Because there is a possibility that Bitcoin may experience a deeper decline. It is possible that after a price rebound, the overall market trend will change. But it is also possible that the same movement will repeat. After the decline, we will see the price move slowly.

There's no clear demand right now in the market that's why it's been ranging but doing it like this is definitely healthy if it indeed needs to go upward. If it will decline the $80k level I'm expecting we might see support from 2021 ATH at $69k but deeper I'd say $50k. Decline is for buying and if there's a clear indication that it will dump I'd be more happy to stable and be sidelined then buy it back, it's an opportunity to take.

[Oasisman]

I'm still positive we bounce in the $80k-$90k region even next year so probably it's a distribution phase. What if institutions are just making retail exhausted or they've been into stocks and metals and not yet on risk assets like cryptocurrency? It seems the macro sentiment was bearish for crypto but still hopeful and just hold than panicking.

There is indeed a possibility for Bitcoin to return to $90k-$100k at the beginning of next year. However, the situation must be supported by an adoption that allows the price to surge back to that level. Because there is a possibility that Bitcoin may experience a deeper decline. It is possible that after a price rebound, the overall market trend will change. But it is also possible that the same movement will repeat. After the decline, we will see the price move slowly.

There's no clear demand right now in the market that's why it's been ranging but doing it like this is definitely healthy if it indeed needs to go upward. If it will decline the $80k level I'm expecting we might see support from 2021 ATH at $69k but deeper I'd say $50k. Decline is for buying and if there's a clear indication that it will dump I'd be more happy to stable and be sidelined then buy it back, it's an opportunity to take.

Bitcoin has been going sideways, from almost recovering back at 6 digit figure to falling back down $80k level. That has always been the price action since Bitcoin dropped after the ATH. It doesn't seem like we have a solid identifier on whether it could fall further down the $70k level, both economically and fundamentally, at this time. A lot of investors/hodlers have been expecting a sharp decline in 2026, so I guess everyone is anticipating that. The only thing everyone is waiting for is the event that could trigger high liquidity in the market. 

[JeffBrad12]

You've done an extensive analysis that also aligns with my Bitcoin disposition. Kudos on that.

-snip-
Consequently, the Bitcoin price is falling due to a complete depletion of purchasing power amid excess supply. Without new drivers, the most likely scenario is that the downward trend will continue until the true bottom is reached. I previously described the mechanism for accurately determining this.

From my monthly chart above, the blue vertical line marked the opening day of 2025, and the brown line marked the opening price of the year, which is at $104,700. It's clear that Bitcoin has performed negatively this year, judging by the opening and current price. I don't see the miracle it can do to undo that when the year has less than 5 days to end.

Since Bitcoin will likely close the year "negative," even as the current price action on the monthly chart is also negative. There is a high chance of a bearish continuation in 2026. Hence, this buttresses your context of Bitcoin finding another bottom in 2026.

Very unfortunate that we close this year with negative since YTD is -6.44% already. I expected in Q1 to be a dead cat bounce before finding a new bottom. As much as I like to be bullish about bitcoin but that seems to be the most likely scenario to play out.
If only the market closed the year's end with a break out at 104k, we could've seen more chance for another all time high but it seems realistically speaking, that'd be hard and yes, continuation of bearish seems to be imminent.

[MarjorieZimmermanGinger]

There's no clear demand right now in the market that's why it's been ranging but doing it like this is definitely healthy if it indeed needs to go upward. If it will decline the $80k level I'm expecting we might see support from 2021 ATH at $69k but deeper I'd say $50k. Decline is for buying and if there's a clear indication that it will dump I'd be more happy to stable and be sidelined then buy it back, it's an opportunity to take.

I'm not so sure we'll see another dip back to the $50,000 range in the next dip, given that Bitcoin is currently stagnant and has consistently failed to break through $90,000, perhaps because the momentum isn't strong enough. But if Bitcoin eventually experiences a deeper price correction, this might be a good opportunity for people to buy based on the performance of the decline. If you have capital, it might not be a problem to buy back when the price experiences a sharp decline because the decline that occurs will be an opportunity to accumulate and this also discusses the right momentum to enter the market.

[SquallLeonhart]

Very unfortunate that we close this year with negative since YTD is -6.44% already. I expected in Q1 to be a dead cat bounce before finding a new bottom. As much as I like to be bullish about bitcoin but that seems to be the most likely scenario to play out.
If only the market closed the year's end with a break out at 104k, we could've seen more chance for another all time high but it seems realistically speaking, that'd be hard and yes, continuation of bearish seems to be imminent.

Even I agree with your all explanations, we have seen that what a new big purchase could do with bitcoin market. I am not expecting those corporates and few other governments will let the bears to dominate the bitcoin market, at least they would prefer bitcoin to be stagnant for time being so that share holders will remain with them for the case of microstrategy for example.

You are right that we need to close above $100k for ensuring bullish to continue but there were past scenarios where bulls had entered and showed their action on the first week of a new year. It means, technical are highly subjective and get subsided at any time by a whale movement.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

There's no clear demand right now in the market that's why it's been ranging but doing it like this is definitely healthy if it indeed needs to go upward. If it will decline the $80k level I'm expecting we might see support from 2021 ATH at $69k but deeper I'd say $50k. Decline is for buying and if there's a clear indication that it will dump I'd be more happy to stable and be sidelined then buy it back, it's an opportunity to take.

I'm not so sure we'll see another dip back to the $50,000 range in the next dip, given that Bitcoin is currently stagnant and has consistently failed to break through $90,000, perhaps because the momentum isn't strong enough. But if Bitcoin eventually experiences a deeper price correction, this might be a good opportunity for people to buy based on the performance of the decline. If you have capital, it might not be a problem to buy back when the price experiences a sharp decline because the decline that occurs will be an opportunity to accumulate and this also discusses the right momentum to enter the market.

That is big if we are to go that low from our all time high of $126k. However, throughout Bitcoin's history we have seen it really going down hard on a bearish season, so we have seen worst and I think investors knows how to react with it.

And yeah, one thing is that they are going to take advantage of it and buy accordingly. We know that the game here is to buy during the bear market and not in the bull run. And that's how it separates the smart investor here in Bitcoin market. We take advantage when the price is very cheap and not ignore or not buy because we are afraid of a red market.

[Swordsoffreedom]

I'm not so sure we'll see another dip back to the $50,000 range in the next dip, given that Bitcoin is currently stagnant and has consistently failed to break through $90,000, perhaps because the momentum isn't strong enough. But if Bitcoin eventually experiences a deeper price correction, this might be a good opportunity for people to buy based on the performance of the decline. If you have capital, it might not be a problem to buy back when the price experiences a sharp decline because the decline that occurs will be an opportunity to accumulate and this also discusses the right momentum to enter the market.

That is big if we are to go that low from our all time high of $126k. However, throughout Bitcoin's history we have seen it really going down hard on a bearish season, so we have seen worst and I think investors knows how to react with it.

And yeah, one thing is that they are going to take advantage of it and buy accordingly. We know that the game here is to buy during the bear market and not in the bull run. And that's how it separates the smart investor here in Bitcoin market. We take advantage when the price is very cheap and not ignore or not buy because we are afraid of a red market.

If Bitcoin drops to $50k, that would be a correction of about 60%. It sounds big, but compared to previous bear market cycles, this is still the smallest decrease. However, I think if that happens there will be a lot of panic and fear. Because most are quite confident that thanks to the involvement of Wall Street and traditional financial institutions, bitcoin will not plummet like previous bear cycles. So if that happens, panic will engulf the market.

Yes, the bear market is a buying opportunity, but many people won't understand that. There will be people who take advantage, but there will also be people who panic sell in a bear market. That's the nature of financial markets, there will never be a situation where everyone buys at the same time whenever prices fall or a bear market arrives.

[Muba20]

Consequently, the Bitcoin price is falling due to a complete depletion of purchasing power amid excess supply. Without new drivers, the most likely scenario is that the downward trend will continue until the true bottom is reached. I previously described the mechanism for accurately determining this.

Since the price of Bitcoin fell below 100k, a bearish sentiment has gradually been seen among investors. If the market does not quickly turn bullish from the position, various analysts believe that the market may move towards a decline. At this moment, a diver is needed through which a new bullish wind can come to the market.

Whatever the market situation, those who are positive about the market will remain firm in their goals. For those who are waiting for a long-term investment opportunity, a good investment opportunity is waiting for them now. Bitcoin will not remain stable in this situation, it will rise quickly, but investors who are still delaying their investment may miss the opportunity. When the rush of investors starts again, they may have to buy at a higher price. The possibility of Bitcoin's price falling below its current condition is very low.

[JeffBrad12]

Even I agree with your all explanations, we have seen that what a new big purchase could do with bitcoin market. I am not expecting those corporates and few other governments will let the bears to dominate the bitcoin market, at least they would prefer bitcoin to be stagnant for time being so that share holders will remain with them for the case of microstrategy for example.

You are right that we need to close above $100k for ensuring bullish to continue but there were past scenarios where bulls had entered and showed their action on the first week of a new year. It means, technical are highly subjective and get subsided at any time by a whale movement.

The problem right now is the selling pressure and no big narrative to drive up the price. Microstrategy has bought 10k bitcoin and the market didn't budge. The big purchase will only make up for the selling pressure if there is no good news but since it's end of the year I still tolerate the dump.
Our only hope is in the santa rally from the last 5 days in december until 2 first days in january. If that doesn't give proper indication of trend reversal, as explained by OP there is a chance that we will be looking for the new bottom.

[fuguebtc]

When the rush of investors starts again, they may have to buy at a higher price. The possibility of Bitcoin's price falling below its current condition is very low.

Contrary to your view, considering the current macroeconomic situation, the geopolitical situation remains very unstable and the economy is not yet truly stable. I don't think money will flow back into speculative markets like cryptocurrencies anytime soon. Furthermore, there is still no guarantee that the four year market cycle has been broken. Therefore, I lean towards the scenario that Bitcoin's price will continue to fall over the next year, rather than entering a accumulation phase before rising again.

We are already in a bear market, and it’s just getting started, Bitcoin hasn't hit the bottom yet, IMO.

[dunfida]

Consequently, the Bitcoin price is falling due to a complete depletion of purchasing power amid excess supply. Without new drivers, the most likely scenario is that the downward trend will continue until the true bottom is reached. I previously described the mechanism for accurately determining this.

Since the price of Bitcoin fell below 100k, a bearish sentiment has gradually been seen among investors. If the market does not quickly turn bullish from the position, various analysts believe that the market may move towards a decline. At this moment, a diver is needed through which a new bullish wind can come to the market.

Whatever the market situation, those who are positive about the market will remain firm in their goals. For those who are waiting for a long-term investment opportunity, a good investment opportunity is waiting for them now. Bitcoin will not remain stable in this situation, it will rise quickly, but investors who are still delaying their investment may miss the opportunity. When the rush of investors starts again, they may have to buy at a higher price. The possibility of Bitcoin's price falling below its current condition is very low.

Market pressure right now feels more like exhaustion than collapse. Liquidity has thinned out sentiment is weak and buyers are hesitant but that does not automatically mean a straight line down. Bitcoin has a history of stalling before major moves and these quiet phases often confuse both bulls and bears. What looks like lack of demand can also be patience waiting for confirmation.

Psychology plays a bigger role here than most charts suggest. Once a round level like 100k breaks confidence takes a hit and narratives flip fast. That does not mean the asset lost its long term structure it means short term conviction is missing. A catalyst can come from many places and it usually arrives when most people stop expecting it. For long term participants this zone is more about positioning than prediction. Nobody rings a bell at the bottom and waiting for perfect clarity usually means entering late. Risk does not disappear but it becomes asymmetrical when fear is louder than logic. Whether price dips a bit more or not what matters is having a plan that survives both outcomes.

[MarjorieZimmermanGinger]

That is big if we are to go that low from our all time high of $126k. However, throughout Bitcoin's history we have seen it really going down hard on a bearish season, so we have seen worst and I think investors knows how to react with it.

And yeah, one thing is that they are going to take advantage of it and buy accordingly. We know that the game here is to buy during the bear market and not in the bull run. And that's how it separates the smart investor here in Bitcoin market. We take advantage when the price is very cheap and not ignore or not buy because we are afraid of a red market.

Such a deep decline could occur, but no one can be certain because Bitcoin can sometimes reverse or rise unexpectedly, and this is also why Bitcoin is considered quite speculative. Bearish periods are the best opportunity for accumulation, and the momentum of a sharp decline can actually be very profitable for those who are able to capitalize on it. Investors with experience with Bitcoin's overall trajectory will certainly be waiting for the right momentum to enter the market for massive accumulation, and this should also be an opportunity for us to take an entry-to-market approach to buying. The most important thing in a downturn is not to cause excessive panic because if we understand the investment situation correctly, a downturn is actually the best opportunity.

[michellee]

The market is unpredictable but the price is going down although the price can increase for a little. The increase in price is good for daily traders but for long term investors, this is not be too worry because they don't depend on the market movements.

The pressure for the price to go down still there and it seems some parties want to push the price lower. Since the market is in weekend, the market gets another correction which makes the price go down. Just be careful if you want to trade.

If the worst scenario is Bitcoin will still goes down, we should not be panic. That is benefit for us because we can buy at a low. We can hope that everything will be back to normal by next year.