Hi all. In my small research study, I've identified certain patterns from the previous 3 BTC cycles. Based on these patterns, I've created a forecast for BTC peaks and bottoms for the current cycle. I tried to build my model only on elements that have already appeared in previous cycles.
main graph
Table
second graph for alt 8 and 9
1) Summary.
Each new cycle begins with a confident breakout and subsequent consolidation above the high of the previous cycle. Each cycle lasts approximately 1250-1400 days. Each cycle consists of two peaks, two lows, and then transitions into the next cycle.
Using a Fibonacci grid, the cycle end is
1 and the beginning is
0. Previous cycle peaks have always ranged between
0.69 and 1. When price drops below 0 on the fibo at the lowest points, we mark these with a
negative sign.
The table shows the values of key points for each cycle:
2 lows, 2 highs, the cycle start (0) and end (1). The table also calculates price movement in Fibonacci points how much the chart moved between adjacent key points. I then calculated the
Total downward movement (2 moves) and
Total upward movement (3 moves) for each cycle.
Old cycles:
2) Forecasting the base scenario for bottom and peak points in the new cycle.
The previous 3 cycles always started with a strong first peak (
1, 1, or 0.91). This cycle has played out differently. We're seeing price fall after a modest rise. This is the main difference between the current cycle and previous ones. This is what people point to when they claim that cycles supposedly no longer work.
However, there are two key facts:
a)
In the 2021-2024 cycle:
0.91 was the first peak,
1 was the second. So the first peak can be lower than the second.
b) The smallest peak across all studied cycles occurred in the
2017-2021 cycle at
0.69, followed by the smallest move to a low -
0.55 fibo points. This is highlighted in the table.
Since we only know the beginning (0) of the new cycle, for the base scenario
Base 1, I'm using the second peak and the price movement to the second low from the
2017-2021 cycle. I'm applying this data to our new cycle as the first peak and first low to build the forecast.
With this setup, the second peak (1 on fibo) comes out at around
151k USD. It's disappointing that it's so low. I'd be happy to be proven wrong.
For the second low of the current cycle, I'm trying
0.1, taken from the same
2017-2021 cycle, specifically from its first bottom low. This
Base 1 variant is essentially a copy of the
2017-2021 cycle, just with peak1-low1 and peak2-low2 swapped.
Since we already touched
0.14 on fibo (November 17, $80,200) after the supposed first peak, there's reason to believe the first low has already occurred.
If we use a more "optimistic" number for bottom low2, say
0.2, we'd exceed the average movement of our cycles. So in this scenario,
0.1 is already the upper boundary (with the first low at
0.14).
Total downward movement and
Total upward movement.
There's a strong similarity between the
2013-2017 and
2021-2024 cycles in this metric. Meanwhile, the
2017-2021 cycle differs from the other two. For all forecasts of the
2024-2028 cycle, we'll stay within the price movement values of previous cycles—between
1.45 and
1.76 for total downward movement.
3) Addition to the base scenario
What if the 1st low turns out lower than expected? If we're using the average movement of the
2017-2021 cycle, this situation still fits within the model.
Low 1 ∈ [−0.02; 0.14]
Low 2 ∈ [0.10; 0.26]
Low 2 = 0.24 - Low1
Base 2/3/4 outline scenarios that still align with the 2017-2021 cycle model.
Base 1 2 3 4 - price movement parameters match 2017-2021
Base 5-6 - intermediate version between 2017-2021 and 2013-2017/2021-2024
Base 7 - price movement parameters match 2013-2017 and 2021-2024
Since we only have 3 cycles to study, we can't know for certain what the current cycle's price movement will be or accurately forecast both low positions right away. Since the similarity with the 2017-2021 cycle seems more significant, I'm using that cycle's price movement as the base scenario.
4) Alternative scenarios
Could the second peak be higher than 150k? This variant is presented as
ALT 8, 9, 10 with a second peak at
180k. But in this scenario, the first peak would be at
0.5 on fibo, which is a significant departure from the previous 3 cycles (since the minimum peak was
0.69).
ALT 8 - price movement parameters match 2017-2021
ALT 9 - middle ground between them
ALT 10 - price movement parameters closer to 2013-2017 and 2021-2024
Thanks for reading. I welcome your comments. I did this for myself originally but decided to share it with everyone. I'd appreciate if you point out any issues you find or share thoughts that could help develop the model further.
