Betting on events far away in the future

[SmartGold01]

I think personally such bets could be fun, of course to risk a few dollars only. But even better: they could give some insights, like gathering the sentiment of techno-optimism or pessimism in a certain year.

Such bets are not fun for me at all.

Even I only bet on events like the United States presidential election when the time of the election is very close, I did not bet on it some weeks or months away. I prefer bets that I can see the result early.

10 years away? You'll lose more with inflation than any potential win.

If I want to do something like that, I will use bitcoin for the bet which is a store of value asset.

Yea that is true and there is no fun in such bet at all, how can someone bet for a game that would come to reality in the next 10 years, at least  maximum should be around 1 year time to get the results instead of waiting for that duration of time and years.
Gambling is for fun and not withholding the fun till further noticed and when the joy might not be there any longer.

[Oshosondy]

Yea that is true and there is no fun in such bet at all, how can someone bet for a game that would come to reality in the next 10 years, at least  maximum should be around 1 year time to get the results instead of waiting for that duration of time and years.
Gambling is for fun and not withholding the fun till further noticed and when the joy might not be there any longer.

The people that will even wait for a whole year before they see the result of the event they bet on are trying because 1 year is very far for me, it will even be like 10 years as I will keep waiting. I prefer the result to be seen within seconds, minutes, hours or be seen in just few days. If it is getting to weeks or months, it is already getting far for me.

[Kelward]

For me I think placing a bet for an event that will or will not happen in the next 5 to 10 years is a very long time to wait and can be distressing in terms of monitoring it for many years. I wonder how much bet is worth monitoring for many years, I can't use amount that I can afford to loose to bet and wait for that long it'll loose it's value. Also using significant amount can make you to always be checking up on it and might give you unnecessary worries which is a big distraction from important things at hand. I think staking your money to make predictions within one year is reasonable.

[Strongkored]

What do you think about betting on events which are far away in the future? "Far away", may be something like at least 10 years away.

10 years is too far away, some bettors might not know the outcome because it's too far away.
You might not know that this gambling site https://futuur.com/ usually offers bets on future events, but from what I've checked, it's not even 10 years away, only 2-3 years, the duration is still reasonable in my opinion.
The betting site is not very well known probably because betting on future events is not very interesting for many bettors, other than just for fun.

[iv4n]

What do you think about betting on events which are far away in the future? "Far away", may be something like at least 10 years away.

It's called "investing". Like you believe Bitcoin & gold will be worth a lot more in 10 years, so you buy some of them and simply wait. I used BTC & gold as examples, but it can be anything else... It's Warren Buffett's words: "If you aren't thinking about owning a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes." Even with your examples, if you think something will happen, you can start investing in it now. And if you decide to do it, it would be foolish & meaningless to do it with a few dollars... For example, I bet on Bitcoin to be worth more in 10 years, so I am placing bets/buying some whenever I can.

But when it comes to sports betting, I don't like long-term bets... I prefer to bet on today's games, eventually on games in the next few days. I don't have patience for that...

[Charles-Tim]

It's called "investing". Like you believe Bitcoin & gold will be worth a lot more in 10 years, so you buy some of them and simply wait.

It is worth knowing that investing in bitcoin or gold is entirely different from gambling and betting. If you invest in bitcoin, gold or a store of value or an appreciative asset, their is high chance that the asset would have increased in price after few years has passed, but winning in gambling and betting is not guaranteed.

But when it comes to sports betting, I don't like long-term bets... I prefer to bet on today's games, eventually on games in the next few days. I don't have patience for that...

You can check some of the examples give in the OP, they are re all not sport betting.

[giammangiato]

I bet on "weird" events like who would be president of the United States but the distance from the result was only 6 months, ten years or even two years is far too long.
Between inflation and events that can happen in that time frame, it would be like throwing money at that placed bet.
Now it's fun to think about a bet of the future, but it's also fun to know if you won or lost, who can say what will happen tomorrow? Nobody
Think in 1 year or two, it's fine for me to "experience" long-term betting, but no more than 6 months, everything else is useless marketing.

[TopTort777]

I think personally such bets could be fun, of course to risk a few dollars only.

I think such bets are the best way to freeze money or give money to a stranger. For example who would bet on "Will there be humans on Mars before the year 2050?" today? I am not 100% sure that casino site I have placed such bet will be operating in 2050. I am 1000% sure I will forget about this bet during next 25 years, and I am 10000% sure that casino wont remind me about it if I win. Placing bets on events that are far away in future is the same as giving casino money for free.

[swogerino]

I think this topic hasn't been discussed here (at least a Google search yielded no result):

What do you think about betting on events which are far away in the future? "Far away", may be something like at least 10 years away.

A couple of examples:

- Will there be humans on Mars before the year 2050?
- Will we see a long distance maglev train before 2036? (Japan is building one scheduled for 2034 afaik ... but we all know that such pioneer projects often take more time)
- Will there be quantum computes capable of hacking a Bitcoin private key until 2035?
- Will we see fully capable humanoid robots with AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) until 2050?

But also things like:

- Will (country X) be able to provide housing for all its citizens until 2040?
- Will medicine progress increase life expectancy for people with (medical condition Y, e.g. cancer) by more than 20% in the next 10 years?

I think personally such bets could be fun, of course to risk a few dollars only. But even better: they could give some insights, like gathering the sentiment of techno-optimism or pessimism in a certain year.

Medicine is already doing great and as far as I know they are already in the stad of soon coming up with a vaccine for cancer at least I read so some years ago when a relative of mine was found with that condition, he is alive and well now thanks to God first and then all that are called God's ways which is medicine. As for betting for distant events it does not mean anything to me and I would not do it as nowadays the main death cause is heart attack and not cancer anymore from latest data so who knows what happens in 10 years or more, we don't know if we will still be alive so why waste money on such opportunities.

[cryptoaddictchie]

I think some of these  kinds of long term future questions already exist or has been set on some as live markets on prediction platforms like Polymarket, Metaculus, and Manifold Markets, and in my opinion they’re best treated as low stake, insight driven bets that are more valuable for measuring collective sentiment and forecasting trends than for making serious profit. Anyway still a gambling form but more of long term compared to traditional one we have in sports betting.

[7juju]

10 years will be more than an long time wait, some people who will make such a long time bet won't even be here anymore to see the outcome of their bet, you know nobody is promised tomorrow things can happen. You ain't even sure if the gambling platform you will place such bet will be in existence for the next 10 years. Another thing is this will the odds be worth the wait, I am just imagining how big the odds will be. It would have been fun, but the waiting period is too long. Such bets will mostly favour the gambling company as they will use gamblers money to do other businesses and make profits with gamblers money, they have got 10 years for the final outcome so there's no rush. I don't think I can make such bets because of the waiting period.

[Cryptmuster]

I think this topic hasn't been discussed here (at least a Google search yielded no result):

What do you think about betting on events which are far away in the future? "Far away", may be something like at least 10 years away.

A couple of examples:

- Will there be humans on Mars before the year 2050?
- Will we see a long distance maglev train before 2036? (Japan is building one scheduled for 2034 afaik ... but we all know that such pioneer projects often take more time)
- Will there be quantum computes capable of hacking a Bitcoin private key until 2035?
- Will we see fully capable humanoid robots with AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) until 2050?

But also things like:

- Will (country X) be able to provide housing for all its citizens until 2040?
- Will medicine progress increase life expectancy for people with (medical condition Y, e.g. cancer) by more than 20% in the next 10 years?

I think personally such bets could be fun, of course to risk a few dollars only. But even better: they could give some insights, like gathering the sentiment of techno-optimism or pessimism in a certain year.

I think these kinds of bets won't be very popular among players here, because players mainly gamble for two reasons: the first is to distract themselves (or, as they like to say, to have fun), and the second is to earn something. But betting a few dollars to find out if you've won or not in 10 years is too long. To be honest, I've never even looked at what the odds might be for such events, but I think players can find similar odds for upcoming matches this week, and that would be faster.

[iv4n]

It's called "investing". Like you believe Bitcoin & gold will be worth a lot more in 10 years, so you buy some of them and simply wait.

It is worth knowing that investing in bitcoin or gold is entirely different from gambling and betting. If you invest in bitcoin, gold or a store of value or an appreciative asset, their is high chance that the asset would have increased in price after few years has passed, but winning in gambling and betting is not guaranteed.

As you wrote: "their is high chance that the asset would have increased in price". There is a high chance, but it's still not guaranteed. So it's all gambling... different games, different rules, but it all comes down to taking risks. Of course, we can do it consciously or blindly... and that's what makes the difference. Your game of choice, and more importantly, your approach.

But when it comes to sports betting, I don't like long-term bets... I prefer to bet on today's games, eventually on games in the next few days. I don't have patience for that...

You can check some of the examples give in the OP, they are re all not sport betting.

Yes, I saw it. I placed a few bets outside the sport, and I know about the crazy markets on Polymarket, but I am not a fan. So that part of my comment was about me and what I am interested in.

[ovcijisir]

I think this topic hasn't been discussed here (at least a Google search yielded no result):

What do you think about betting on events which are far away in the future? "Far away", may be something like at least 10 years away.

A couple of examples:

- Will there be humans on Mars before the year 2050?
- Will we see a long distance maglev train before 2036? (Japan is building one scheduled for 2034 afaik ... but we all know that such pioneer projects often take more time)
- Will there be quantum computes capable of hacking a Bitcoin private key until 2035?
- Will we see fully capable humanoid robots with AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) until 2050?

But also things like:

- Will (country X) be able to provide housing for all its citizens until 2040?
- Will medicine progress increase life expectancy for people with (medical condition Y, e.g. cancer) by more than 20% in the next 10 years?

I think personally such bets could be fun, of course to risk a few dollars only. But even better: they could give some insights, like gathering the sentiment of techno-optimism or pessimism in a certain year.

Bets like this could be interesting but I think they could be realisticaly confined only to bet with vlose friends or at leastpeople you havd regular contact with, as , at least I, have tendency to forget such things

I have not noticed any casinos having bets like this, and even if some would have such bets, there is danger of casino closure before bet settlement...

[joeperry]

Personally it's like giving money away, let's say you place a bet for $100 in 10 years you would forget it where in you can spend it now to other things or place a bet on other events and after 10 years you're still not sure whether your are going to lose or win and just in case you win it might not that big unless you have a great odds which usually not. If you are going to wait for a long time like that, why not just invest your money instead of betting it and waiting for a long time, investing to crypto with even $100 can be really profitable rather than waiting for 10 years for a fix odds.

It's just wasting time and money for me.

[Charles-Tim]

As you wrote: "their is high chance that the asset would have increased in price". There is a high chance, but it's still not guaranteed. So it's all gambling... different games, different rules, but it all comes down to taking risks. Of course, we can do it consciously or blindly... and that's what makes the difference. Your game of choice, and more importantly, your approach.

People call life gambling, even the job that we have, the business that we do are all called gambling. Even some people call trading gambling. I am surprised that everything is associated with gambling because gambling has its own definition.

Business, trading (which is as risky up to or as gambling), investment, jobs and others are not gambling, they are totally different. All of them has their own definitions but just that everything comes with risks which is the reason some people will say they are gambling but they are not gambling because gambling has its own distinct definition.

[avp2306]

10 years away? You'll lose more with inflation than any potential win.

Fair point if using fiat. The platforms could however offer placing bets in BTC ...

True, but keeping your BTC locked for 10 years...

What if you put up 0.1 BTC @ 2.00 at $8700 (current price of $87k) and after 10 years you win 0.2 BTC worth $2m (BTC at $10m)? Would the casino still pay you up? I just don't see this being a good idea.

What remind me this situation is not your keys, not your coins the risk to lose is huge due to many negative situations that might happen in future.

Even if we can say the idea is great still the real issue here is if the platform will exist, hacking issue is also one factor need to consider and if they have enough liquidity to pay if the value of Bitcoin shoot up to 50x or even more. If that situation happen even if they are legit they might be force to turn as scam especially if they cannot pay their gamblers anymore.

Locking our coins for 10 years is also like we agree to give them a free loan, which they can use that amount to earn more money while us get nothing and wait if we win on the bet we made or not.

[CryptoYar]

Making bets about things that are way off in future such as year 2035 or 2050 is special way for experts to measure amount to which people believe in new technology and how realistic they are in relation to length of time big projects actually take.

These bets are hard to make as you need to believe that money will not be gone in decades, but in 2025, computer programs known as smart contracts can safely store money until it is time to pay. Examples you give, like trip to Mars or curing cancer, show whether we believe that science can find solution to our greatest problems or whether we believe that money and rules will make us slow down.

Although these bets are fun with only few dollars, their true value is information. By viewing what thousands of people are betting on, we are able to get market price of what future may truly look like.

[nimogsm]

The idea itself is interesting, but how can it all be organized properly? It was correctly stated here that inflation must be combated, as it will eat away part of the money in 5-10 years. The second point is who will act as the guarantor of the transaction. Trust alone is not enough; convincing arguments are also needed so that people can, in theory, bet on an event with a long-term perspective.

[tvplus006]

...I think personally such bets could be fun, of course to risk a few dollars only. But even better: they could give some insights, like gathering the sentiment of techno-optimism or pessimism in a certain year.

Of course, you can bet a few dollars, which in 25 years can be greatly devalued and with it the winnings will be devalued, in case of a successful outcome. And there is no guarantee that the bookmaker or the operator will still be working by that time and will be liable for the old bets.