Betting on events far away in the future

[Akbarkoe]

I think this topic hasn't been discussed here (at least a Google search yielded no result):

What do you think about betting on events which are far away in the future? "Far away", may be something like at least 10 years away.

A couple of examples:

- Will there be humans on Mars before the year 2050?
- Will we see a long distance maglev train before 2036? (Japan is building one scheduled for 2034 afaik ... but we all know that such pioneer projects often take more time)
- Will there be quantum computes capable of hacking a Bitcoin private key until 2035?
- Will we see fully capable humanoid robots with AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) until 2050?

But also things like:

- Will (country X) be able to provide housing for all its citizens until 2040?
- Will medicine progress increase life expectancy for people with (medical condition Y, e.g. cancer) by more than 20% in the next 10 years?

I think personally such bets could be fun, of course to risk a few dollars only. But even better: they could give some insights, like gathering the sentiment of techno-optimism or pessimism in a certain year.

Not a bad idea but I would much rather invest in bitcoin or even stocks and wait for that long then place a bet like this one, that said the idea would make more sense if you were not necessarily trying to get rich from it but just trying to predict some crazy events, the interest is in the outcome not your potential winning, when you look at it like this then it suddenly becomes very interesting especially with other people doing it so now you want to figure out which one of you had the better prediction.
If it's going to be about the winning though than maybe if there is some kind of mechanism is place the potential winning adjusts to inflation meaning that regards of what wave of inflation that happens you potential winning will retain the same value even though the price changes, let's say your potential at the time of the bet is $100k today but inflation might reduce the value of that money in the future into $10k today so it adjusts itself so that the potential winning maintain it's value of today that way your winning in 10 years might become $1m as long as that $1m is worth the $100k of today.

Don't compare it to Investing because it's a bet so use money that you think is small, don't overdo it so you want to get rich from it, you are quite unreasonable to want that, what if it's only x2 the profit or less than that, it will be very unattractive to you because imagine 100x of $10k, and you imagine a 10x decrease in the value of money from the present value, will it be as extreme as that inflation that you imagine?

I'm going to bet to bet for 10 years, I don't know how long I'll live so I'm going to use a small amount of money.

[centrum]

Betting on events that are so far in the future is riskier because the uncertainty is so great and the risk of you losing money is higher. Even though betting on events like that looks more attractive because of the potential for large profits, the risk of losing capital is also much higher compared to regular betting. So for people who want to bet on events 3.5, 10, or more years in the future, they need to consider that they are betting cold money and must be prepared to accept the possibility of total loss of the money they bet.

placing a bet on an event far in the future is an extremely risky decision. the longer the time frame the greater the uncertainty becomes because future economic conditions social environments laws regulations or unexpected events can completely change the situation. many times such bets attract people with the promise of big profits but in reality the chance of losing the original capital is much higher. compared to short term bets long term bets are far more difficult to predict. it is almost impossible to say with certainty what will happen after three five or ten years. therefore anyone who wants to place bets over such a long period must understand that this is not an investmeant but a form of high risk gambling. in such cases only money that can be lost without seriouslly affecting personal life or family should be used. conscious thinking and responsible decision making are the most important factors.

[danadc]

Gambling on event is not the challenge here, but we need to understand why we should not be involved in any other thing that may cost of lost of interest over a long duration of time, as some will say it, long expectation could be disappointing, when there is no certainty, so why should we put ourself in to such conditions for too long and expecting.

Perhaps what might emerge are the different analyses produced by the bettors, and much can be learned from these analyses because they represent the perspectives and thoughts of experienced gamblers  It could be said that we can gain new insights and develop further as bettors , seeing things that we didn't notice before but that others did.

[WhoYouCantKill]

Betting on events that are so far in the future is riskier because the uncertainty is so great and the risk of you losing money is higher. Even though betting on events like that looks more attractive because of the potential for large profits, the risk of losing capital is also much higher compared to regular betting. So for people who want to bet on events 3.5, 10, or more years in the future, they need to consider that they are betting cold money and must be prepared to accept the possibility of total loss of the money they bet.

placing a bet on an event far in the future is an extremely risky decision. the longer the time frame the greater the uncertainty becomes because future economic conditions social environments laws regulations or unexpected events can completely change the situation.

Whether near or far, as long as it has got to do with predicting the future, it is still very risky and things can go wrong. This is because no matter how certain the situation might look, the trust still remains that the future is full of uncertainties, and no one can truly predict 100% what tomorrow holds. Even weather experts can still make mistakes in their forecasts, which shows just how uncertain the future can be.

[Yorubek]

Betting on events that are so far in the future is riskier because the uncertainty is so great and the risk of you losing money is higher. Even though betting on events like that looks more attractive because of the potential for large profits, the risk of losing capital is also much higher compared to regular betting. So for people who want to bet on events 3.5, 10, or more years in the future, they need to consider that they are betting cold money and must be prepared to accept the possibility of total loss of the money they bet.

placing a bet on an event far in the future is an extremely risky decision. the longer the time frame the greater the uncertainty becomes because future economic conditions social environments laws regulations or unexpected events can completely change the situation. many times such bets attract people with the promise of big profits but in reality the chance of losing the original capital is much higher. compared to short term bets long term bets are far more difficult to predict. it is almost impossible to say with certainty what will happen after three five or ten years. therefore anyone who wants to place bets over such a long period must understand that this is not an investmeant but a form of high risk gambling. in such cases only money that can be lost without seriouslly affecting personal life or family should be used. conscious thinking and responsible decision making are the most important factors.

I agree with you, there is high risk in gambling, and there is high entertainment in gambling. Those gamblers who gamble for entertainment purposes by following the right rules and setting their own boundaries, maintaining self-control, can enjoy high pleasure in gambling. And those who gamble for quick money, do not set their own limit, and gamble on impulse, their gambling becomes addictive, as a result of which the risk of losing additional money increases manifold. Gambling is good for short periods of time, but gambling for long periods of time can increase the risk of losing money.

[SFR10]

What do you think about betting on events which are far away in the future? "Far away", may be something like at least 10 years away.

Like the majority of users, I voted "Nope!"... Regardless of the result, I prefer to know the outcome within a few months to a year ^{[at most]} and in addition to what most users mentioned about the prediction market that they'd use might no longer be around after 10 years, there's also the uncertainty of us being alive after 10 years ^{[unfortunately]}.

[avp2306]

What do you think about betting on events which are far away in the future? "Far away", may be something like at least 10 years away.

Like the majority of users, I voted "Nope!"... Regardless of the result, I prefer to know the outcome within a few months to a year ^{[at most]} and in addition to what most users mentioned about the prediction market that they'd use might no longer be around after 10 years, there's also the uncertainty of us being alive after 10 years ^{[unfortunately]}.

I really find it waiting for 10 years just to see the result so unrealistic. Usually what people want is to see the result in more in few months or one year, because there are lots of uncertainty if we talk about that long timespan just waiting for those predictions made to happen. That's why I agree with you that a month or maximum one year prediction is reasonable and practical. Since this provably could give us still more exciting results.

That 10 year prediction maybe sounds reasonable for other but again as said it will just expose us on many risk. Short time frame make those prediction market looks more ideal and reasonable.