2026 Difficulty Thread

[Nexus9090]

Heading back up. Must have been a glitch in the matrix...

5-6% increase now looks likely

 

[philipma1957]

We could be seeing some liquid cooled s23 units. they supposedly can run as low as 9.5 watts a th. so maybe some of them are coming on line.

https://altairtech.io/product/bitmain-antminer-s23-hydro-bitcoin-miner/

[Nexus9090]

We could be seeing some liquid cooled s23 units. they supposedly can run as low as 9.5 watts a th. so maybe some of them are coming on line.

https://altairtech.io/product/bitmain-antminer-s23-hydro-bitcoin-miner/

Nice toy if you can afford to buy and run it.

[alh]

BTC has now fallen BELOW $60K. Interesting to see if this lasts. Some marginal folks will have to decide how long they can "mine at a loss".

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   955228  (5 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   106.1555%  (1661 / 1564.69 expected, 96.31 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   138955357012247.3                           
Current Difficulty:   124932866006548.2                           
Next Difficulty:   between 132462831664378 and 132718810637961
Next Difficulty Change:   between +6.0272% and +6.2321%
Previous Retarget:   June 13, 2026 at 8:12 PM  (-10.0914%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 12:43 AM  (in 2d 7h 44m 9s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 1:19 AM  (in 2d 8h 20m 23s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 4h 31m 0s and 13d 5h 7m 15s

I am now at

270x.0304=8.208

$8.21 a miner earned and
$7.14 a miner burned

net 1.07 a day each  for 9 s21xps.

So they make $292.75 a month.

 they cost over 40k so 150 months for a profit at this pace.

to be fair they made way more year and late 2024.

so if I drop 14% in price to 52k I am a negative miner.

and if we go up in diff 6% this jump and 6% next jump and stay at 60k I would be break even.

I am not accounting for gear purchase price which is hard to figure.

[FP91G]

We could be seeing some liquid cooled s23 units. they supposedly can run as low as 9.5 watts a th. so maybe some of them are coming on line.

https://altairtech.io/product/bitmain-antminer-s23-hydro-bitcoin-miner/

Nice toy if you can afford to buy and run it.

Am I the only one who doesn't understand why this is so expensive?
The payback period is very long: at 5 cents per kilowatt, it will take 3+ years! In 3 years, this ASIC will turn into a pile of illiquid aluminum, Bitmain will release a 6 J/TH S25 Hyd, and network difficulty will skyrocket. I haven't taken the cooling system into account in my calculations yet.

[philipma1957]

yeah hard to justify buying this as compared to buying s21xps air cooled.

I get that if you switched to liquid cooling  you only need buy the gear

but it costs a Lot.

14,400 for 580 th burning 5510 watts s23 hydro.


7800 for 540th burning 7000 watts s21xp


so you save 6600 dollars getting the s21xp

not counting cool gear.

you lose 40th a day  that is $1.20
you spend 36kwatts extra at a nickel a kwatt that is 1.80 a day

so every day you run the liquid cooled vs the air cooled you make up 3 dollars.

but you laid out 6600 so 6600/3=2,200  days

2,200 days is over 6 years.

6x365=2,190

the price is too high.

newhedge.io
Latest Block:   955388  (20 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   106.6422%  (1821 / 1707.58 expected, 113.42 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   138955357012247.3                           
Current Difficulty:   124932866006548.2                           
Next Difficulty:   between 133235559519723 and 133319236433833
Next Difficulty Change:   between +6.6457% and +6.7127%
Previous Retarget:   June 13, 2026 at 8:12 PM  (-10.0914%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 11:17 PM  (in 1d 6h 28m 32s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 11:28 PM  (in 1d 6h 40m 17s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 3h 4m 20s and 13d 3h 16m 5s

I am about ready to go into a loss with my miners.

Maybe next jump

[Nexus9090]

-SNIP-

I am about ready to go into a loss with my miners.

Maybe next jump

Sorry to hear that. It must be a real annoyance, but what can you do. We're all passengers on that journey.

Its been a fun exercise along the way and I've learned a lot but that's about all I can say for BTC mining.

I earned a bit back in the early days mining to Slush's pool before it became Braiins, but that's long been consumed by equipment failures and general upgrades.

I've spent more on mining kit than I've ever earned from it, all I can do is hope that I get lucky and hit a solo block.

I'll probably quit after the next halving. It just wont be worth the hassle of maintaining it unless BTC's value exceeds $350K

[joker_josue]

I am about ready to go into a loss with my miners.

Maybe next jump

If this happens, are you thinking of shutting down the machines, or will you continue operating them as normal?

I earned a bit back in the early days mining to Slush's pool before it became Braiins, but that's long been consumed by equipment failures and general upgrades.

I've spent more on mining kit than I've ever earned from it, all I can do is hope that I get lucky and hit a solo block.

Good old days. I even mined there too.

Unfortunately, I never got around to buying an ASIC. But I wish I had tried.

[Nexus9090]

I am about ready to go into a loss with my miners.

Maybe next jump

If this happens, are you thinking of shutting down the machines, or will you continue operating them as normal?

I earned a bit back in the early days mining to Slush's pool before it became Braiins, but that's long been consumed by equipment failures and general upgrades.

I've spent more on mining kit than I've ever earned from it, all I can do is hope that I get lucky and hit a solo block.

Good old days. I even mined there too.

Unfortunately, I never got around to buying an ASIC. But I wish I had tried.

I had a little cluster of Antminer U2's back then. I wish I'd paid more attention to it and kept it running. But with moving house and one thing and another it got boxed and forgotten about until I started getting interested in solo mining.

[Nexus9090]

We could be seeing some liquid cooled s23 units. they supposedly can run as low as 9.5 watts a th. so maybe some of them are coming on line.

https://altairtech.io/product/bitmain-antminer-s23-hydro-bitcoin-miner/

Nice toy if you can afford to buy and run it.

Am I the only one who doesn't understand why this is so expensive?
The payback period is very long: at 5 cents per kilowatt, it will take 3+ years! In 3 years, this ASIC will turn into a pile of illiquid aluminum, Bitmain will release a 6 J/TH S25 Hyd, and network difficulty will skyrocket. I haven't taken the cooling system into account in my calculations yet.

I agree its ridiculously overpriced. But then mining gear has always been overpriced deliberately so the hardware manufacturers stay just one step ahead of the curve. That way they always earn from it.

Every single high end mining kit out there is priced so that the cost of recovery is 2-3 years that's always been the case.

I've often thought the only people to properly earn out of BTC were the miner manufacturers.

[FP91G]

We could be seeing some liquid cooled s23 units. they supposedly can run as low as 9.5 watts a th. so maybe some of them are coming on line.

https://altairtech.io/product/bitmain-antminer-s23-hydro-bitcoin-miner/

Nice toy if you can afford to buy and run it.

Am I the only one who doesn't understand why this is so expensive?
The payback period is very long: at 5 cents per kilowatt, it will take 3+ years! In 3 years, this ASIC will turn into a pile of illiquid aluminum, Bitmain will release a 6 J/TH S25 Hyd, and network difficulty will skyrocket. I haven't taken the cooling system into account in my calculations yet.

I agree its ridiculously overpriced. But then mining gear has always been overpriced deliberately so the hardware manufacturers stay just one step ahead of the curve. That way they always earn from it.

Every single high end mining kit out there is priced so that the cost of recovery is 2-3 years that's always been the case.

I've often thought the only people to properly earn out of BTC were the miner manufacturers.

We had a joke about how if an ASIC currently pays for itself in 15 months, according to the calculator, then we should assume it will pay for itself in 30 months.
An Antminer S23 Hydro Bitcoin Miner for 14,000 won't pay for itself in three years because the halving is in 22 months. So I don't understand who's buying this equipment.

[philipma1957]

newhedge.io

Latest Block:   955519  (5 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   106.8830%  (1952 / 1826.30 expected, 125.7 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   138955357012247.3                            
Current Difficulty:   124932866006548.2                            
Next Difficulty:   between 133605235317042 and 133614592211938
Next Difficulty Change:   between +6.9416% and +6.9491%
Previous Retarget:   June 13, 2026 at 8:12 PM  (-10.0914%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 10:34 PM  (in 0d 9h 58m 47s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 10:35 PM  (in 0d 10h 0m 5s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 2h 21m 44s and 13d 2h 23m 2s

there is a long complicated explanation as to what the big miners are doing.

Essentially it is this a guy like Elon Musk can print money via stock IPO's

Elon just created an ipo with 6-7.49 billion shares at 135 usd now at 150 usd.

that is 1 trillion dollars most of the shares are his so pretend it is 600 billion dollars.

poof out of thin air.

so buying 100,000 s23 hydros at 14,000 =

1,400,000,000 billion add cooling at 100million and he now has 1.5 billion in mining

and still has 598.5 billion from the IPO

what is 100,000 units going to mine well

0.55ph for 1
5.5ph for 10
55 ph for 100
550ph for 1000
5.5eh for 10,000
55eh for 100,000

fairly easy for him to do

add 55eh at the drop of the hat and push out old less efficient gear.

and still have 598.5 billion from the spcx IPO in his pocket.

take it further

110eh and the cost is 3 billion and he has 597 billion left from his ipo

or 220eh and the cost is 6 billion and he has 594 billion left from his ipo

and you can see this is not about making money by mining

this is about controlling the mining.

lets go more

1100eh costs him 30 billion of his 600 billion

and he owns half the network's miners and they are the most efficient ones at that.

and wait for it he still has 570 billion of his IPO from spcx.

So at this point you can see he can print money via an ipo and own half the network
for 30/600=0.05=  1/20 of his IPO money.


As you can see below:

newhedge.io

Latest Block:   955671  (13 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   105.7724%  (88 / 83.20 expected, 4.8 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   124932866006548.2                           
Current Difficulty:   133869853540305.4                           
Next Difficulty:   between 134523110994479 and 141941425272085
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.4880% and +6.0294%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 9:58 PM  (+7.1534%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   July 10, 2026 at 3:37 AM  (in 12d 15h 47m 48s)
Next Retarget (latest):   July 10, 2026 at 8:24 PM  (in 13d 8h 34m 4s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 5h 39m 47s and 13d 22h 26m 2s


We went up 7.1%

And we are over 5% right now. It looks like a play to control mining from a large company

[Nexus9090]

GHR is nearly back up to 1ZH/s so much for the price driving it down.

I guess the temporary low must have been one of the large farms re-tooling or something.

No reprieve that's clear now.

[FP91G]

We went up 7.1%

And we are over 5% right now. It looks like a play to control mining from a large company

Show me at least one ASIC that will pay for itself before the halving.
If an ASIC doesn't pay for itself before the halving, are you sure it will be profitable after the halving?
I can only assume that miners are hoping the Bitcoin price will rise, but for now they'll have to pay for mining from their reserves.

[philipma1957]

We went up 7.1%

And we are over 5% right now. It looks like a play to control mining from a large company

Show me at least one ASIC that will pay for itself before the halving.
If an ASIC doesn't pay for itself before the halving, are you sure it will be profitable after the halving?
I can only assume that miners are hoping the Bitcoin price will rise, but for now they'll have to pay for mining from their reserves.

It is no longer about profit for big miners. It is about future mined coin control.

2012 10,500,000 coins left
2016   5,250,000 coins left
2020   2,625,000 coins left
2024   1,312,500 coins left

maybe 982,000 coins left  right now

2028     656,250.00
2032     328,125.00
2036     164,062.50
2040       82,031.25

so from today to 2040 1/2ing  900,000 coins will be mined

We are watching large miners looking to really dial in on these coins and they do not care is they lose some money in the short run getting them.

[DaveF]

We went up 7.1%

And we are over 5% right now. It looks like a play to control mining from a large company

Show me at least one ASIC that will pay for itself before the halving.
If an ASIC doesn't pay for itself before the halving, are you sure it will be profitable after the halving?
I can only assume that miners are hoping the Bitcoin price will rise, but for now they'll have to pay for mining from their reserves.

It is no longer about profit for big miners. It is about future mined coin control.

2012 10,500,000 coins left
2016   5,250,000 coins left
2020   2,625,000 coins left
2024   1,312,500 coins left

maybe 982,000 coins left  right now

2028     656,250.00
2032     328,125.00
2036     164,062.50
2040       82,031.25

so from today to 2040 1/2ing  900,000 coins will be mined

We are watching large miners looking to really dial in on these coins and they do not care is they lose some money in the short run getting them.

Yep, it's investing in their future.
Making hay while the sun shines.
Pick whatever metaphor you like.

The other side might be a bit of the middle finger to Ocean / luke / the 110 proposal.
Keep difficulty a bit higher while making the coins they want to keep long term and making it more expensive for them to play their games with trying to take over BTC

-Dave

[FP91G]

We went up 7.1%

And we are over 5% right now. It looks like a play to control mining from a large company

Show me at least one ASIC that will pay for itself before the halving.
If an ASIC doesn't pay for itself before the halving, are you sure it will be profitable after the halving?
I can only assume that miners are hoping the Bitcoin price will rise, but for now they'll have to pay for mining from their reserves.

It is no longer about profit for big miners. It is about future mined coin control.

2012 10,500,000 coins left
2016   5,250,000 coins left
2020   2,625,000 coins left
2024   1,312,500 coins left

maybe 982,000 coins left  right now

2028     656,250.00
2032     328,125.00
2036     164,062.50
2040       82,031.25

so from today to 2040 1/2ing  900,000 coins will be mined

We are watching large miners looking to really dial in on these coins and they do not care is they lose some money in the short run getting them.

I don't understand it, Bitcoin is currently worth less than 60,000. Many miners are mining their Bitcoins for more than that.
Mining competition is high, and the difficulty isn't decreasing much. It's more profitable to buy coins now than equipment that won't pay for itself before the halving and will be unprofitable after.

[philipma1957]

We went up 7.1%

And we are over 5% right now. It looks like a play to control mining from a large company

Show me at least one ASIC that will pay for itself before the halving.
If an ASIC doesn't pay for itself before the halving, are you sure it will be profitable after the halving?
I can only assume that miners are hoping the Bitcoin price will rise, but for now they'll have to pay for mining from their reserves.

It is no longer about profit for big miners. It is about future mined coin control.

2012 10,500,000 coins left
2016   5,250,000 coins left
2020   2,625,000 coins left
2024   1,312,500 coins left

maybe 982,000 coins left  right now

2028     656,250.00
2032     328,125.00
2036     164,062.50
2040       82,031.25

so from today to 2040 1/2ing  900,000 coins will be mined

We are watching large miners looking to really dial in on these coins and they do not care is they lose some money in the short run getting them.

I don't understand it, Bitcoin is currently worth less than 60,000. Many miners are mining their Bitcoins for more than that.
Mining competition is high, and the difficulty isn't decreasing much. It's more profitable to buy coins now than equipment that won't pay for itself before the halving and will be unprofitable after.

That is because you live in Russia and you do not have a lot of capitalism training.

This means you are not aware of all the convoluted mind games capitalists do about money.

Much like I am not aware of the inner workings of Russia.

But like I said earlier Musk basically printed money with his IPO for spcx

1.2 trillion dollars of which 700 billion is his stock.

Do you think he looks at money like you or I do? hell no he just created 1.2 trillion worth of stock which based on company earnings of 18.7 billion last year while it spent 23.7 billion

Stop to think about that. 1.2 trillion stock value for a company that lost 5 billion dollars.

It is more like religion and faith than sound business.

this is what is being done with mining.

we all know the coins will drop from 980,000 to 80,000 by 2040

and these companies are willing to lose money fighting for fresh coins and control of them.

Hell like I said Musk printed 700 billion for himself on a company that lost 5 billion last year.

he can buy most of Saylor's coins say 600,000 for 48 billion which bails out Saylor
he can buy 500eh for around 15 billion which give himself 1/3 of the miners.

so 15+48=63

and he just printed 700

so 700-63=637

I am not saying musk will do any of it but others do ipos which is essentially printing money

and they can toss it at both mining and Ai if they want.

look at this list of ipo's for last 2 years or so

https://www.tipranks.com/calendars/ipo/pricing?

851 IPO's for last 2 years  all printed money:

Orient Technologies Ltd ORIC BSE Aug 27, 2024 ₹303.50 6.92M ₹2.10B
―
PERSHING SQUARE INC. PS NYSE Apr 29, 2026 $50.00 40.52M $2.03B -34.60%

_

As Partners Co Ltd160AJPXApr 03, 2024 ¥1,920.00 1.10M ¥2.00B 1.25%
―

L is B Corp 145A JPX Mar 25, 2024 ¥1,190.00 1.68M ¥2.00B -35.71%
―
Fervo Energy Co FRVO NASDAQ Global Select May 13, 2026 $27.00 70.00M $1.89B11.37%

-

Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc.BXDCNYSEMay 14, 2026 $20.00 87.50M $1.75B7.50%
-




just a few of the 851 on the list they all got free money to play with and they toss darts hoping to get a bullseye.

[joker_josue]

~~

But for printing money to work, he would have to sell the shares. Otherwise, it's money that can't be moved.
Or am I wrong?

This thing about high finance is really complicated sometimes..