2026 Difficulty Thread

[philipma1957]

~~

But for printing money to work, he would have to sell the shares. Otherwise, it's money that can't be moved.
Or am I wrong?

This thing about high finance is really complicated sometimes..

there are around 8 billion shares he has control of about 60% of them.

so 4.8 billion shares.

shares are 170 so

4800,000,000 x 170 =8.16×10¹¹=  816 billon dollars.


he can pledge 10,000,000 shares at 150 to be transferred the day after the release date.

that is 1,500,000,000 billion bucks.

he future pledged them at a discount to a bank willing to take a shot.

and he can sweeten that with a 2% contingency.

ie if shares are under 150 he gives the bank 200,000 more shares.


i use smaller numbers above.

if he did that. here is the worst 10,200,000 shares are gone

he still has 816,000,000,000-10,200,000=815.9 billion shares

he would be foolish to not do a few pledges since it gives him cash now and hedges if the stock drops way low to 85 dollars.  

Latest Block:   956156  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.1822%  (573 / 583.61 expected, 10.61 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   124932866006548.2                           
Current Difficulty:   133869853540305.4                           
Next Difficulty:   between 131481793851789 and 132694531954891
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.7839% and -0.8780%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 9:58 PM  (+7.1534%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   July 11, 2026 at 1:00 AM  (in 10d 1h 45m 56s)
Next Retarget (latest):   July 11, 2026 at 4:11 AM  (in 10d 4h 57m 9s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 3h 2m 1s and 14d 6h 13m 15s

[joker_josue]

he would be foolish to not do a few pledges since it gives him cash now and hedges if the stock drops way low to 85 dollars.  

But do you really think the banks will be willing to buy those shares like that?
As soon as the market finds out he did that, panic sets in and the price starts to fall.

Now, perhaps he won't even need to do that to ask the banks for money. Because he's at a level of market recognition where banks will always trust him to pay his bills.

I think these tycoons, who have millions, end up getting trapped in their own system in order to continue "having" all of that.

None of them can really say, "I'm going to sell everything and retire to a deserted island." Because nobody is going to buy everything they have at this price, and as soon as they start doing that, what is now worth millions will be worth very little.

[FP91G]

We went up 7.1%

And we are over 5% right now. It looks like a play to control mining from a large company

Show me at least one ASIC that will pay for itself before the halving.
If an ASIC doesn't pay for itself before the halving, are you sure it will be profitable after the halving?
I can only assume that miners are hoping the Bitcoin price will rise, but for now they'll have to pay for mining from their reserves.

It is no longer about profit for big miners. It is about future mined coin control.

2012 10,500,000 coins left
2016   5,250,000 coins left
2020   2,625,000 coins left
2024   1,312,500 coins left

maybe 982,000 coins left  right now

2028     656,250.00
2032     328,125.00
2036     164,062.50
2040       82,031.25

so from today to 2040 1/2ing  900,000 coins will be mined

We are watching large miners looking to really dial in on these coins and they do not care is they lose some money in the short run getting them.

I don't understand it, Bitcoin is currently worth less than 60,000. Many miners are mining their Bitcoins for more than that.
Mining competition is high, and the difficulty isn't decreasing much. It's more profitable to buy coins now than equipment that won't pay for itself before the halving and will be unprofitable after.

That is because you live in Russia and you do not have a lot of capitalism training.

This means you are not aware of all the convoluted mind games capitalists do about money.

Much like I am not aware of the inner workings of Russia.

But like I said earlier Musk basically printed money with his IPO for spcx

1.2 trillion dollars of which 700 billion is his stock.

Do you think he looks at money like you or I do? hell no he just created 1.2 trillion worth of stock which based on company earnings of 18.7 billion last year while it spent 23.7 billion

Stop to think about that. 1.2 trillion stock value for a company that lost 5 billion dollars.

It is more like religion and faith than sound business.

this is what is being done with mining.

we all know the coins will drop from 980,000 to 80,000 by 2040

and these companies are willing to lose money fighting for fresh coins and control of them.

Hell like I said Musk printed 700 billion for himself on a company that lost 5 billion last year.

he can buy most of Saylor's coins say 600,000 for 48 billion which bails out Saylor
he can buy 500eh for around 15 billion which give himself 1/3 of the miners.

so 15+48=63

and he just printed 700

so 700-63=637

I am not saying musk will do any of it but others do ipos which is essentially printing money

and they can toss it at both mining and Ai if they want.

look at this list of ipo's for last 2 years or so

https://www.tipranks.com/calendars/ipo/pricing?

851 IPO's for last 2 years  all printed money:

Orient Technologies Ltd ORIC BSE Aug 27, 2024 ₹303.50 6.92M ₹2.10B
―
PERSHING SQUARE INC. PS NYSE Apr 29, 2026 $50.00 40.52M $2.03B -34.60%

_

As Partners Co Ltd160AJPXApr 03, 2024 ¥1,920.00 1.10M ¥2.00B 1.25%
―

L is B Corp 145A JPX Mar 25, 2024 ¥1,190.00 1.68M ¥2.00B -35.71%
―
Fervo Energy Co FRVO NASDAQ Global Select May 13, 2026 $27.00 70.00M $1.89B11.37%

-

Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc.BXDCNYSEMay 14, 2026 $20.00 87.50M $1.75B7.50%
-




just a few of the 851 on the list they all got free money to play with and they toss darts hoping to get a bullseye.

I don't have Elon Musk's experience with capitalism, but SpaceX's divisions and subsidiaries look interesting from a future technology perspective.
US presidents change, but Elon Musk and his companies receive massive government support.

Now I'll tell you about capitalism in Russia. With Bitcoin's current price level, mining companies are losing money. Therefore, Russian authorities are preparing to ban mining in Moscow and the surrounding region. Official miners there consume over 1 gigawatt per hour, but there are also many illegal miners. So the government is telling miners that if you don't pay taxes, we'll give that electricity to more profitable businesses.

[philipma1957]

We went up 7.1%

And we are over 5% right now. It looks like a play to control mining from a large company

Show me at least one ASIC that will pay for itself before the halving.
If an ASIC doesn't pay for itself before the halving, are you sure it will be profitable after the halving?
I can only assume that miners are hoping the Bitcoin price will rise, but for now they'll have to pay for mining from their reserves.

It is no longer about profit for big miners. It is about future mined coin control.

2012 10,500,000 coins left
2016   5,250,000 coins left
2020   2,625,000 coins left
2024   1,312,500 coins left

maybe 982,000 coins left  right now

2028     656,250.00
2032     328,125.00
2036     164,062.50
2040       82,031.25

so from today to 2040 1/2ing  900,000 coins will be mined

We are watching large miners looking to really dial in on these coins and they do not care is they lose some money in the short run getting them.

I don't understand it, Bitcoin is currently worth less than 60,000. Many miners are mining their Bitcoins for more than that.
Mining competition is high, and the difficulty isn't decreasing much. It's more profitable to buy coins now than equipment that won't pay for itself before the halving and will be unprofitable after.

That is because you live in Russia and you do not have a lot of capitalism training.

This means you are not aware of all the convoluted mind games capitalists do about money.

Much like I am not aware of the inner workings of Russia.

But like I said earlier Musk basically printed money with his IPO for spcx

1.2 trillion dollars of which 700 billion is his stock.

Do you think he looks at money like you or I do? hell no he just created 1.2 trillion worth of stock which based on company earnings of 18.7 billion last year while it spent 23.7 billion

Stop to think about that. 1.2 trillion stock value for a company that lost 5 billion dollars.

It is more like religion and faith than sound business.

this is what is being done with mining.

we all know the coins will drop from 980,000 to 80,000 by 2040

and these companies are willing to lose money fighting for fresh coins and control of them.

Hell like I said Musk printed 700 billion for himself on a company that lost 5 billion last year.

he can buy most of Saylor's coins say 600,000 for 48 billion which bails out Saylor
he can buy 500eh for around 15 billion which give himself 1/3 of the miners.

so 15+48=63

and he just printed 700

so 700-63=637

I am not saying musk will do any of it but others do ipos which is essentially printing money

and they can toss it at both mining and Ai if they want.

look at this list of ipo's for last 2 years or so

https://www.tipranks.com/calendars/ipo/pricing?

851 IPO's for last 2 years  all printed money:

Orient Technologies Ltd ORIC BSE Aug 27, 2024 ₹303.50 6.92M ₹2.10B
―
PERSHING SQUARE INC. PS NYSE Apr 29, 2026 $50.00 40.52M $2.03B -34.60%

_

As Partners Co Ltd160AJPXApr 03, 2024 ¥1,920.00 1.10M ¥2.00B 1.25%
―

L is B Corp 145A JPX Mar 25, 2024 ¥1,190.00 1.68M ¥2.00B -35.71%
―
Fervo Energy Co FRVO NASDAQ Global Select May 13, 2026 $27.00 70.00M $1.89B11.37%

-

Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc.BXDCNYSEMay 14, 2026 $20.00 87.50M $1.75B7.50%
-




just a few of the 851 on the list they all got free money to play with and they toss darts hoping to get a bullseye.

I don't have Elon Musk's experience with capitalism, but SpaceX's divisions and subsidiaries look interesting from a future technology perspective.
US presidents change, but Elon Musk and his companies receive massive government support.

Now I'll tell you about capitalism in Russia. With Bitcoin's current price level, mining companies are losing money. Therefore, Russian authorities are preparing to ban mining in Moscow and the surrounding region. Official miners there consume over 1 gigawatt per hour, but there are also many illegal miners. So the government is telling miners that if you don't pay taxes, we'll give that electricity to more profitable businesses.

So your $ guide lines are vastly different from "free" world ipo created money
guidelines.

In some ways saner and realistic.

BTW I am in my guide lines more like yours.

As I can not make IPO money

[FP91G]

So your $ guide lines are vastly different from "free" world ipo created money
guidelines.

In some ways saner and realistic.

BTW I am in my guide lines more like yours.

As I can not make IPO money

I can only assume that Elon Musk's story is an exception to American capitalism. If anyone else has succeeded in doing the same, I'd love to read their stories.
And real mining could go bankrupt before an investor like Elon Musk comes along to buy the company and launch a new IPO.

[philipma1957]

newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   956676  (2 minutes ago)

 Current Pace:   99.3786%  (1093 / 1099.83 expected, 6.83 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   124932866006548.2                            
Current Difficulty:   133869853540305.4                            
Next Difficulty:   between 133062374321844 and 133230826112938
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.6032% and -0.4773%
Previous Retarget:   June 26, 2026 at 9:58 PM  (+7.1534%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 11:37 PM  (in 6d 10h 21m 17s)
Next Retarget (latest):   July 11, 2026 at 12:04 AM  (in 6d 10h 47m 42s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 39m 38s and 14d 2h 6m 3s

down just a bit.


As for Musk as the exception in the USA no he is just the biggest.

the list I found has 851 IPO's in the last 2 years creating over 2 trillion in cash mostly on hope in the future.


So that is 3.2 trillion in hope created wealth not fact created wealth.

Ie Nvidia figures out how to up load you to the cloud allowing you to live for thousands of years. With all the real good feelings of being alive and a reduction of all the bad feelings of being alive.

or the opposite if you want less fun and more pain for your new 1000 plus years of existence.

just think how high the stock for Nvidia would be if they do it.



From

newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:
956729  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:
99.4793%  (1146 / 1152.00 expected, 6 behind)

Previous Difficulty:
124932866006548.2                            
Current Difficulty:
133869853540305.4                            
Next Difficulty:
between 133196161457862 and 133321111103623
Next Difficulty Change:
between -0.5032% and -0.4099%
Previous Retarget:
June 26, 2026 at 9:58 PM  (+7.1534%)
Next Retarget (earliest):
Friday at 11:23 PM  (in 6d 1h 25m 53s)
Next Retarget (latest):
Friday at 11:43 PM  (in 6d 1h 45m 32s)
Projected Epoch Length:
between 14d 1h 25m 51s and 14d 1h 45m 30s


Still off pace a tiny bit.




Latest Block:   956968  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.7537%  (1385 / 1431.47 expected, 46.47 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   124932866006548.2                           
Current Difficulty:   133869853540305.4                           
Next Difficulty:   between 129542273319657 and 129953829458043
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.2327% and -2.9252%
Previous Retarget:   June 26, 2026 at 9:58 PM  (+7.1534%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 8:08 AM  (in 4d 11h 35m 26s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 9:14 AM  (in 4d 12h 41m 42s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 10h 10m 8s and 14d 11h 16m 24s

we fell off the pace more and price went up which is okay by me.

[alh]

For what it's worth, BTC price has crept up a bit to $64K. Some folks that were on the profit margin will get to continue a bit longer.

[philipma1957]

For what it's worth, BTC price has crept up a bit to $64K. Some folks that were on the profit margin will get to continue a bit longer.

Yeah my underwater number was 55 or 56k

So 64k is helpful


I would love to go to 80k and just relax for a while.

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newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   957093  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.7046%  (1510 / 1561.46 expected, 51.46 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   124932866006548.2                           
Current Difficulty:   133869853540305.4                           
Next Difficulty:   between 129475070780485 and 129743394990839
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.2829% and -3.0824%
Previous Retarget:   June 26, 2026 at 9:58 PM  (+7.1534%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 8:41 AM  (in 3d 14h 29m 8s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 9:25 AM  (in 3d 15h 12m 25s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 10h 43m 42s and 14d 11h 26m 59s


Decent shift in price and in hash it looks pretty good

[joker_josue]

Decent shift in price and in hash it looks pretty good

At least it seems the difficulty will drop a bit, since the hash rate is still coming out.

[philipma1957]

newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   957243  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.2412%  (1660 / 1724.83 expected, 64.83 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   124932866006548.2                            
Current Difficulty:   133869853540305.4                            
Next Difficulty:   between 128852982959923 and 129003737827606
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.7476% and -3.6350%
Previous Retarget:   June 26, 2026 at 9:58 PM  (+7.1534%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 10:40 AM  (in 2d 13h 14m 29s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 11:05 AM  (in 2d 13h 39m 2s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 12h 42m 49s and 14d 13h 7m 22s

3 days to go a  good drop on the way.

We could use a jump in price to 80k

                  @@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

Latest Block:   957308  (a minute ago)

Current Pace:   96.1795%  (1725 / 1793.52 expected, 68.52 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   124932866006548.2                            
Current Difficulty:   133869853540305.4                            
Next Difficulty:   between 128769828197121 and 128872122972089
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.8097% and -3.7333%
Previous Retarget:   June 26, 2026 at 9:58 PM  (+7.1534%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 11:02 AM  (in 2d 2h 8m 54s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 11:18 AM  (in 2d 2h 25m 35s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 13h 4m 7s and 14d 13h 20m 48s



A drop in hash rate looks to happen this Saturday morning.

                  #########################
#############################################


https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   957585  (17 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   95.1684%  (2002 / 2103.64 expected, 101.64 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   124932866006548.2                            
Current Difficulty:   133869853540305.4                            
Next Difficulty:   between 127413948311954 and 127414244636316
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.8225% and -4.8223%
Previous Retarget:   June 26, 2026 at 9:58 PM  (+7.1534%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 3:01 PM  (in 0d 2h 27m 3s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 3:01 PM  (in 0d 2h 27m 6s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 17h 3m 27s and 14d 17h 3m 30s

bigger pull back then I expected we could go back 5%

Strong fade to -5% 133.8t to 133.8t to 127.1 t

Earnings per th are around 0.0315 cents


Latest Block:   957615  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   128.1221%  (16 / 12.49 expected, 3.51 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   133869853540305.4                            
Current Difficulty:   127170500429035.2                            
Next Difficulty:   between 127954641199068 and 207665745135530
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.6166% and +63.2971%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 3:42 PM  (-5.0044%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   July 22, 2026 at 1:57 PM  (in 10d 20h 10m 6s)
Next Retarget (latest):   July 25, 2026 at 2:32 PM  (in 13d 20h 45m 9s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 10d 22h 14m 59s and 13d 22h 50m 2s


 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Latest Block:   957794  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.2063%  (195 / 188.94 expected, 6.06 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   133869853540305.4                            
Current Difficulty:   127170500429035.2                            
Next Difficulty:   between 128229528725144 and 133143523740211
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.8328% and +4.6969%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 3:42 PM  (-5.0044%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   July 25, 2026 at 5:15 AM  (in 12d 6h 4m 16s)
Next Retarget (latest):   July 25, 2026 at 1:46 PM  (in 12d 14h 35m 16s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 13h 33m 41s and 13d 22h 4m 41s


............................................................................... ...
............................................................................... ..........

Latest Block:   957855  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   104.3483%  (256 / 245.33 expected, 10.67 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   133869853540305.4                           
Current Difficulty:   127170500429035.2                           
Next Difficulty:   between 128768561936173 and 134171380499580
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.2566% and +5.5051%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 3:42 PM  (-5.0044%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   July 25, 2026 at 1:42 AM  (in 11d 17h 6m 35s)
Next Retarget (latest):   July 25, 2026 at 12:22 PM  (in 12d 3h 46m 52s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 9h 59m 54s and 13d 20h 40m 11s

early and a small up tick right now.

[FP91G]

Bitcoin Mining Just Got 5% Easier. The Relief Is Smaller Than It Looks
At block 957,600, Bitcoin’s mining difficulty dropped from 133.87 trillion to 127.17 trillion. That makes every machine on the network more likely to find a block than it was during the previous two-week cycle.
link
Mempool.space’s difficulty data recorded the reset at block 957,600 on July 11. The exact adjustment factor was 0.949956, a 5.0044% reduction from the prior cycle.

The previous adjustment had moved in the opposite direction. Difficulty rose 7.15% on June 26, from 124.93 trillion to 133.87 trillion, just as mining revenue was tightening.

This weekend’s drop gave back most of that increase, but it did not return the network to its June level. Difficulty remains about 1.8% above where it stood before the late-June jump.

That sequence matters. A 5% cut sounds like a sudden gift until it is placed beside the 7.15% increase that preceded it.

[joker_josue]

That sequence matters. A 5% cut sounds like a sudden gift until it is placed beside the 7.15% increase that preceded it.

From the beginning of 2026 until now, what is the difference? Is it easier or more difficult?

[Nexus9090]

That sequence matters. A 5% cut sounds like a sudden gift until it is placed beside the 7.15% increase that preceded it.

From the beginning of 2026 until now, what is the difference? Is it easier or more difficult?

The diff is on a down trend and is lower than at the start of 26.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   958019  (5 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   104.4609%  (420 / 402.06 expected, 17.94 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   133869853540305.4                           
Current Difficulty:   127170500429035.2                           
Next Difficulty:   between 129545151337093 and 133738276816336
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.8673% and +5.1645%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 3:42 PM  (-5.0044%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   July 25, 2026 at 1:21 AM  (in 10d 14h 38m 26s)
Next Retarget (latest):   July 25, 2026 at 10:20 AM  (in 10d 23h 38m 0s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 9h 39m 4s and 13d 18h 38m 38s

[FP91G]

That sequence matters. A 5% cut sounds like a sudden gift until it is placed beside the 7.15% increase that preceded it.

From the beginning of 2026 until now, what is the difference? Is it easier or more difficult?

https://www.coinwarz.com/bitcoin-hashrate

Sometimes it was easier, sometimes it was harder.
Bitcoin's hashrate was usually growing, but now it's either falling slightly or remaining in the average range of 0.9 ZH/s.
This is good for miners because they do not incur additional losses due to the growth of the overall hashrate.