2026 Difficulty Thread

[joker_josue]

My plan is fairly perfect but I know people and I know egos so no one will do the plan.

I HAVE ASKED FOR 21 BTC as my commission if the idea is taken and use but I would not expect the gready ego manics to do anything,  but they will insult me about this idea.

Then steal in in the future.

Feel free to quote me if you will.

I got the impression that you only explained the basics of the idea; it involved more than that. Right?

I never considered that kind of approach, not from the perspective of using those funds to support the network.

Were you only creating the 2009-2012 rule, or was it something that continued?

What if someone came back in 2040 to retrieve their 2009 coins? Wouldn't it be unfair to lose access to them?
Or what about those who have spent fortunes trying to recover old discs containing access to coins, managing to recover them but losing access to the coins?

[philipma1957]

My plan is fairly perfect but I know people and I know egos so no one will do the plan.

I HAVE ASKED FOR 21 BTC as my commission if the idea is taken and use but I would not expect the gready ego manics to do anything,  but they will insult me about this idea.

Then steal in in the future.

Feel free to quote me if you will.

I got the impression that you only explained the basics of the idea; it involved more than that. Right?

I never considered that kind of approach, not from the perspective of using those funds to support the network.

Were you only creating the 2009-2012 rule, or was it something that continued?

What if someone came back in 2040 to retrieve their 2009 coins? Wouldn't it be unfair to lose access to them?
Or what about those who have spent fortunes trying to recover old discs containing access to coins, managing to recover them but losing access to the coins?

No you post in 2029 that in 2039 all coins from 2009 will be considered abandoned property.

Ten year warning posted daily on multiple websites is good enough.

I am going to:Google what countries have abandoned property laws.

Hint most.

https://fastercapital.com/content/Escheat-Laws--Understanding-the-Fate-of-Abandoned-Bank-Accounts.html

Google escheat-laws

https://assetcadet.com/blog/unclaimed-property-worldwide

Many other countries do this.

It is irresponsible for btc to not address this issue.

Especially with the first  10,500,000 coins or 210,000 blocks mined.

And in lite of the cold card hack even more so this needs to be addressed.

Make the declaration jan 1 2029.

Give 10 years for movement of coins in stale lost frozen addresses then sweep the set up 1 day at a time.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escheat.


 If you read this and understand that countries could come for you for running a node that contains old abandoned lost coins you can start to see that btc needs to be proactive on this.

[joker_josue]

If you read this and understand that countries could come for you for running a node that contains old abandoned lost coins you can start to see that btc needs to be proactive on this.

To be able to do that, you would need to know who owned those coins.
Without knowing who the owner was, you can't know if the coins are truly abandoned or not.

Even 70 years from now, you still don't know if the original holder gave them to another holder or not.

But, knowing how governments work, the likelihood of them creating a law that will try to obtain these currencies is something that easily happens. Especially in about 10 or 20 years.

This even solves something I find stupid but many people do, which is "burning coins." These coins would then become useful to the network.

On the other hand, he continued to view it as a convoy of coins. Which undermines the idea that the coins always belong to whoever controls the private key. Making this convisco abretario and da rede conveys the idea that the coins are not really ours.

How can we balance this situation?

[philipma1957]

If you read this and understand that countries could come for you for running a node that contains old abandoned lost coins you can start to see that btc needs to be proactive on this.

To be able to do that, you would need to know who owned those coins.
Without knowing who the owner was, you can't know if the coins are truly abandoned or not.

Even 70 years from now, you still don't know if the original holder gave them to another holder or not.

But, knowing how governments work, the likelihood of them creating a law that will try to obtain these currencies is something that easily happens. Especially in about 10 or 20 years.

This even solves something I find stupid but many people do, which is "burning coins." These coins would then become useful to the network.

On the other hand, he continued to view it as a convoy of coins. Which undermines the idea that the coins always belong to whoever controls the private key. Making this convisco abretario and da rede conveys the idea that the coins are not really ours.

How can we balance this situation?

Well I am older 69 and practical. We do not need every country in the world that has a history of abandoned property laws coming after btc.

My way allows a long term plan way over 100 years time.
It allows stable mining over 100 years time.
It warns long term holders to simply move the old wallet.
It paves to way to protect against quantum attacks.

An if announced in 2029 phasing in 2039 plenty of time is there.

BTW it has a bit of traction here and there.



Back to

Newhedge.io

Latest Block:   961100  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   101.7299%  (1485 / 1459.75 expected, 25.25 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   127170500429035.2                           
Current Difficulty:   126231507121868.2                           
Next Difficulty:   between 128358260173422 and 128519678399715
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.6848% and +1.8127%
Previous Retarget:   July 25, 2026 at 6:39 PM  (-0.7384%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 12:56 PM  (in 3d 14h 59m 42s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 1:20 PM  (in 3d 15h 23m 29s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 18h 17m 10s and 13d 18h 40m 57s

A bit up in diff

[joker_josue]

Well I am older 69 and practical. We do not need every country in the world that has a history of abandoned property laws coming after btc.

My way allows a long term plan way over 100 years time.
It allows stable mining over 100 years time.
It warns long term holders to simply move the old wallet.
It paves to way to protect against quantum attacks.

An if announced in 2029 phasing in 2039 plenty of time is there.

BTW it has a bit of traction here and there.

Sorry for going off-topic. 

Have you already started a thread about this topic here?

I've always been somewhat hesitant about the suggestion that was made to block Satoshi's coins when anti-quantum computing changes arise.
But you presented the idea from a perspective I had never considered before.

I think we can discuss this a little (and anyone who wants to participate). It would be interesting to start a new thread about this topic. What do you think?

[philipma1957]

Well I am older 69 and practical. We do not need every country in the world that has a history of abandoned property laws coming after btc.

My way allows a long term plan way over 100 years time.
It allows stable mining over 100 years time.
It warns long term holders to simply move the old wallet.
It paves to way to protect against quantum attacks.

An if announced in 2029 phasing in 2039 plenty of time is there.

BTW it has a bit of traction here and there.

Sorry for going off-topic. 

Have you already started a thread about this topic here?

I've always been somewhat hesitant about the suggestion that was made to block Satoshi's coins when anti-quantum computing changes arise.
But you presented the idea from a perspective I had never considered before.

I think we can discuss this a little (and anyone who wants to participate). It would be interesting to start a new thread about this topic. What do you think?

Not sure  where does it go? It is off topic but does relate because it would affect difficulty by stableizing mining rewards for the minimum of 75 years and maybe as much as 150. That would certainly allow for Difficulty growth if price grows.


Back to current numbers.,price went up just a bit as did the difficulty.

Latest Block:   961169 

Current Pace:   101.3011%  (1554 / 1534.04 expected, 19.96 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   127170500429035.2                           
Current Difficulty:   126231507121868.2                           
Next Difficulty:   between 127880235034888 and 127972881916928
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.3061% and +1.3795%
Previous Retarget:   July 25, 2026 at 6:39 PM  (-0.7384%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 2:20 PM  (in 3d 4h 0m 39s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 2:33 PM  (in 3d 4h 14m 15s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 19h 41m 4s and 13d 19h 54m 40s

[joker_josue]

Not sure  where does it go? It is off topic but does relate because it would affect difficulty by stableizing mining rewards for the minimum of 75 years and maybe as much as 150. That would certainly allow for Difficulty growth if price grows.

On the general board of bitcoin. Basically, we are debating an idea for Bitcoin.

[alh]

If you want to view BTC as a "currency replacement", then it makes little sense to worry about "lost or cold" coins. If you get 100 $100 bills, and use them one at a time to light your cigars, the US government will in no way worry about replacing that money. If you damage the money you can try and get a replacement if you have enough residual bits to make the claim.

If you look at BTC compared to a "precious metal", then again if gold is lost or destroyed in some way, there is no way to recover it or be compensated.

BTC seems not really fit well into your plan, unless you want to view as some kind of "registered property" in which case then many state laws would seem to apply.  That happens for things like accounts, or stock certificates, or real estate. BTC doesn't seem to fit that model since one of it's touted vales is anonymity of ownership.

Just a few thoughts from the "peanut gallery" (in MN).

[philipma1957]

If you want to view BTC as a "currency replacement", then it makes little sense to worry about "lost or cold" coins. If you get 100 $100 bills, and use them one at a time to light your cigars, the US government will in no way worry about replacing that money. If you damage the money you can try and get a replacement if you have enough residual bits to make the claim.

If you look at BTC compared to a "precious metal", then again if gold is lost or destroyed in some way, there is no way to recover it or be compensated.

BTC seems not really fit well into your plan, unless you want to view as some kind of "registered property" in which case then many state laws would seem to apply.  That happens for things like accounts, or stock certificates, or real estate. BTC doesn't seem to fit that model since one of it's touted vales is anonymity of ownership.

Just a few thoughts from the "peanut gallery" (in MN).

it is registered on the blockchain.

and I look at it from the viewpoint of a trained accountant with a lot of years dealing with USA laws.

we all know the first 10,500,000 coins have lots and lots and lots of frozen stale lost unclaimed

blah blah blah coins.

we should know most countries have unclaimed property laws.

so do we want to be proactive and make laws ourselves

or wait for governments to make laws against us.


and my idea fixes :
1) low mining rewards
2) makes 75 to 150 years of stable mining
3) keeps control of btc out of governments
4) fixes quantum issues painlessly
5) does not increase the coins still 21 million

newhedge.io

Latest Block:   961310  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.7505%  (1695 / 1682.37 expected, 12.63 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   127170500429035.2                           
Current Difficulty:   126231507121868.2                           
Next Difficulty:   between 127242102050865 and 127268606103461
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.8006% and +0.8216%
Previous Retarget:   July 25, 2026 at 6:39 PM  (-0.7384%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 4:09 PM  (in 2d 5h 6m 5s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 4:12 PM  (in 2d 5h 9m 53s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 21h 29m 49s and 13d 21h 33m 38s

[FP91G]

BTC seems not really fit well into your plan, unless you want to view as some kind of "registered property" in which case then many state laws would seem to apply.  That happens for things like accounts, or stock certificates, or real estate. BTC doesn't seem to fit that model since one of it's touted vales is anonymity of ownership.

Just a few thoughts from the "peanut gallery" (in MN).

If in Monero you can talk about anonymity, then in the case of Bitcoin this is a completely wrong statement. Your actions on the Bitcoin blockchain are not anonymous, unlike Monero, so it would be more correct to use the concept of pseudonymity in relation to Bitcoin. Until you pass Kyc.

[joker_josue]

it is registered on the blockchain.

and I look at it from the viewpoint of a trained accountant with a lot of years dealing with USA laws.

we all know the first 10,500,000 coins have lots and lots and lots of frozen stale lost unclaimed

blah blah blah coins.

we should know most countries have unclaimed property laws.

so do we want to be proactive and make laws ourselves

The problem is that this creates a rule in the protocol that removes coins from their holders.

The logic is always: the coins belong to whoever has access to them. With this type of rule, that logic ends up falling apart.

That would be changing the "rules of the game, mid-game." It's just an opinion that this is never a positive thing. That wasn't the purpose for which you and I got into Bitcoin.

[Nexus9090]

it is registered on the blockchain.

and I look at it from the viewpoint of a trained accountant with a lot of years dealing with USA laws.

we all know the first 10,500,000 coins have lots and lots and lots of frozen stale lost unclaimed

blah blah blah coins.

we should know most countries have unclaimed property laws.

so do we want to be proactive and make laws ourselves

The problem is that this creates a rule in the protocol that removes coins from their holders.

The logic is always: the coins belong to whoever has access to them. With this type of rule, that logic ends up falling apart.

That would be changing the "rules of the game, mid-game." It's just an opinion that this is never a positive thing. That wasn't the purpose for which you and I got into Bitcoin.

This sounds like a dangerous gateway to ending one of the key principles of BTC and that is the decentralised no overall control aspect of it.

If a mechanism were introduced that allows groups of actors to reclaim frozen unspent assets, that's the equivalent of allowing a bunch of bank robbers to openly access any bank vault in the world.

What will happen if it needed a majority consensus is that large groups of "corrupt actors" would become gate keepers and anyone's wallet would become fair game.

This sounds like a really bad idea.

[philipma1957]

newhedge.io

Latest Block:   961451  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.4623%  (1836 / 1827.55 expected, 8.45 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   127170500429035.2                           
Current Difficulty:   126231507121868.2                           
Next Difficulty:   between 126892180661777 and 126897517846952
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.5234% and +0.5276%
Previous Retarget:   July 25, 2026 at 6:39 PM  (-0.7384%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 5:06 PM  (in 1d 5h 51m 42s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 5:07 PM  (in 1d 5h 52m 27s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 22h 27m 13s and 13d 22h 27m 57s


So we are basically dead even at the moment.

Some time tomorrow we will have a new adjustment.

[FP91G]

The Russian Cabinet of Ministers will ban cryptocurrency mining in the Moscow and Kursk regions starting August 15.
link
The Moscow Region Ministry of Energy previously proposed banning mining in the Moscow region. In his speech at Energoprom-26, the head of the ministry, Sergei Voropanov, estimated that mining consumes 1 GW of energy in the Moscow power grid. He cited data showing that data center capacity in Moscow and the Moscow region could reach 3.6 GW by 2032, or 17% of the maximum load.

There will be interesting observations after August 15th.

[philipma1957]

The Russian Cabinet of Ministers will ban cryptocurrency mining in the Moscow and Kursk regions starting August 15.
link
The Moscow Region Ministry of Energy previously proposed banning mining in the Moscow region. In his speech at Energoprom-26, the head of the ministry, Sergei Voropanov, estimated that mining consumes 1 GW of energy in the Moscow power grid. He cited data showing that data center capacity in Moscow and the Moscow region could reach 3.6 GW by 2032, or 17% of the maximum load.

There will be interesting observations after August 15th.

hmm 2% drop in diff at least

maybe 5% or more.

we are a very little bit ahead at the moment.

Latest Block:   961499  (31 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.6901%  (1884 / 1871.09 expected, 12.91 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   127170500429035.2                            
Current Difficulty:   126231507121868.2                            
Next Difficulty:   between 127179218655588 and 127183329880885
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.7508% and +0.7540%
Previous Retarget:   July 25, 2026 at 6:39 PM  (-0.7384%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 4:21 PM  (in 0d 21h 50m 57s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 4:21 PM  (in 0d 21h 51m 32s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 21h 41m 49s and 13d 21h 42m 24s



bc1qs9j5y5mhfmqyee5w0mlxytax4ylk2r09fyuwhq

[Nexus9090]

The Russian Cabinet of Ministers will ban cryptocurrency mining in the Moscow and Kursk regions starting August 15.
link
The Moscow Region Ministry of Energy previously proposed banning mining in the Moscow region. In his speech at Energoprom-26, the head of the ministry, Sergei Voropanov, estimated that mining consumes 1 GW of energy in the Moscow power grid. He cited data showing that data center capacity in Moscow and the Moscow region could reach 3.6 GW by 2032, or 17% of the maximum load.

There will be interesting observations after August 15th.

hmm 2% drop in diff at least

maybe 5% or more.

we are a very little bit ahead at the moment.

Latest Block:   961499  (31 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.6901%  (1884 / 1871.09 expected, 12.91 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   127170500429035.2                            
Current Difficulty:   126231507121868.2                            
Next Difficulty:   between 127179218655588 and 127183329880885
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.7508% and +0.7540%
Previous Retarget:   July 25, 2026 at 6:39 PM  (-0.7384%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 4:21 PM  (in 0d 21h 50m 57s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 4:21 PM  (in 0d 21h 51m 32s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 21h 41m 49s and 13d 21h 42m 24s



bc1qs9j5y5mhfmqyee5w0mlxytax4ylk2r09fyuwhq

Looks like the down trend is bottoming out.

Much like the price stagnation of BTC right now hovering between $60-65k.

I know previous events arent a reliable indication of future trends, but looking at the price over the past year there's a 4 month pattern emerging, If i'm right BTC will see another dip at the beginning of September probably dropping it to the low $50K region.

I'm beginning to think BTC is cooked right now.

[philipma1957]

Almost done

https://newhedge.io/btc/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   961599  (17 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.4798%  (1984 / 1974.53 expected, 9.47 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   127170500429035.2                            
Current Difficulty:   126231507121868.2                            
Next Difficulty:   between 126913304644053 and 126913477396310
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.5401% and +0.5403%
Previous Retarget:   July 25, 2026 at 6:39 PM  (-0.7384%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 5:02 PM  (in 0d 5h 18m 28s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 5:02 PM  (in 0d 5h 18m 29s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 22h 23m 43s and 13d 22h 23m 45s



So 0.5 to 1.0 uptick is coming.

Once again miners are standing pat. No new gear to speak of.

newhedge.io

Latest Block:   961620  (16 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.6351%  (2005 / 1992.35 expected, 12.65 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   127170500429035.2                            
Current Difficulty:   126231507121868.2                            
Next Difficulty:   between 127108922236242 and 127108948540783
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.6951% and +0.6951%
Previous Retarget:   July 25, 2026 at 6:39 PM  (-0.7384%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 4:31 PM  (in 0d 1h 49m 18s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 4:32 PM  (in 0d 1h 49m 18s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 21h 52m 45s and 13d 21h 52m 46s



+0.7 percent



Latest Block:   961632  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   191.1047%  (1 / 0.52 expected, 0.48 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   126231507121868.2                           
Current Difficulty:   127479855693691.4                           
Next Difficulty:   between 127566952950661 and 409100656890637
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.0683% and +220.9140%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 3:33 PM  (+0.9889%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   August 15, 2026 at 11:22 PM  (in 7d 7h 43m 57s)
Next Retarget (latest):   August 22, 2026 at 3:24 PM  (in 13d 23h 45m 14s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 7d 7h 49m 11s and 13d 23h 50m 28s

[FP91G]

The Russian Cabinet of Ministers will ban cryptocurrency mining in the Moscow and Kursk regions starting August 15.
link
The Moscow Region Ministry of Energy previously proposed banning mining in the Moscow region. In his speech at Energoprom-26, the head of the ministry, Sergei Voropanov, estimated that mining consumes 1 GW of energy in the Moscow power grid. He cited data showing that data center capacity in Moscow and the Moscow region could reach 3.6 GW by 2032, or 17% of the maximum load.

There will be interesting observations after August 15th.

hmm 2% drop in diff at least

maybe 5% or more.

we are a very little bit ahead at the moment.

Latest Block:   961499  (31 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.6901%  (1884 / 1871.09 expected, 12.91 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   127170500429035.2                            
Current Difficulty:   126231507121868.2                            
Next Difficulty:   between 127179218655588 and 127183329880885
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.7508% and +0.7540%
Previous Retarget:   July 25, 2026 at 6:39 PM  (-0.7384%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 4:21 PM  (in 0d 21h 50m 57s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 4:21 PM  (in 0d 21h 51m 32s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 21h 41m 49s and 13d 21h 42m 24s



bc1qs9j5y5mhfmqyee5w0mlxytax4ylk2r09fyuwhq

I think miners will work until the very end because there's nowhere to quickly move such large capacities. Over time, some equipment will be relocated to other regions, but Moscow is currently under very strict control, and miners won't be able to consume such large capacities.