2026 Difficulty Thread

[philipma1957]

Newhedge.io

Latest Block:   962062  (22 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   93.7509%  (431 / 459.73 expected, 28.73 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   126231507121868.2                            
Current Difficulty:   127479855693691.4                            
Next Difficulty:   between 119568541207306 and 124338220865812
Next Difficulty Change:   between -6.2059% and -2.4644%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 3:33 PM  (+0.9889%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   August 23, 2026 at 12:06 AM  (in 11d 3h 55m 52s)
Next Retarget (latest):   August 23, 2026 at 1:57 PM  (in 11d 17h 46m 30s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 8h 33m 9s and 14d 22h 23m 47s



The dip looks solid maybe we drop under 120t and we are not sure how much mining will drop due to Russia and the new Moscow rules.


Latest Block:   962077  (29 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   93.3361%  (446 / 477.84 expected, 31.84 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   126231507121868.2                            
Current Difficulty:   127479855693691.4                            
Next Difficulty:   between 119037418590847 and 124018587880345
Next Difficulty Change:   between -6.6226% and -2.7151%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 3:33 PM  (+0.9889%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   August 23, 2026 at 1:00 AM  (in 11d 1h 47m 59s)
Next Retarget (latest):   August 23, 2026 at 3:33 PM  (in 11d 16h 20m 56s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 9h 26m 24s and 14d 23h 59m 21s

We have about 10 days to go and we are 5% off.
Part of the drop may be due to Moscow laws against mining that are in effect this week.
Maybe we go back up in hash once they relocate

Latest Block:   962205  (a few seconds ago)

Current Pace:   95.2005%  (574 / 602.94 expected, 28.94 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   126231507121868.2                            
Current Difficulty:   127479855693691.4                            
Next Difficulty:   between 121404113175437 and 124438436164275
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.7660% and -2.3858%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 3:33 PM  (+0.9889%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   August 22, 2026 at 11:50 PM  (in 10d 3h 46m 59s)
Next Retarget (latest):   August 23, 2026 at 8:30 AM  (in 10d 12h 26m 58s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 8h 16m 21s and 14d 16h 56m 21s

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https://newhedge.io/btc/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   962343  (23 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.4245%  (712 / 738.40 expected, 26.4 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   126231507121868.2                            
Current Difficulty:   127479855693691.4                            
Next Difficulty:   between 122957080390501 and 124809698522322
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.5478% and -2.0946%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 3:33 PM  (+0.9889%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   August 22, 2026 at 10:48 PM  (in 9d 4h 10m 46s)
Next Retarget (latest):   August 23, 2026 at 4:01 AM  (in 9d 9h 23m 31s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 7h 14m 47s and 14d 12h 27m 32s

we are down 3.57% still early


______________________________________________
     ------------------------------------------------


Latest Block:   962445  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.6424%  (814 / 833.65 expected, 19.65 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   126231507121868.2                            
Current Difficulty:   127479855693691.4                            
Next Difficulty:   between 124505979888653 and 125547136245279
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.3328% and -1.5161%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 3:33 PM  (+0.9889%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   August 22, 2026 at 8:47 PM  (in 8d 10h 17m 11s)
Next Retarget (latest):   August 22, 2026 at 11:40 PM  (in 8d 13h 10m 13s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 5h 13m 43s and 14d 8h 6m 46s


still off pace and we are dropping off pace a bit.

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Latest Block:   962749  (8 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.2159%  (1118 / 1126.84 expected, 8.84 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   126231507121868.2                            
Current Difficulty:   127479855693691.4                            
Next Difficulty:   between 126504038467234 and 126696464147227
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.7655% and -0.6145%
Previous Retarget:   August 8, 2026 at 3:33 PM  (+0.9889%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 5:41 PM  (in 6d 6h 19m 21s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 6:13 PM  (in 6d 6h 50m 58s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 7m 42s and 14d 2h 39m 19s


Halfway there.


__________________________________________
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pretty much flat for now


Latest Block:   963177  (a few seconds ago)

Current Pace:   99.5093%  (1546 / 1553.62 expected, 7.62 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   126231507121868.2                            
Current Difficulty:   127479855693691.4                            
Next Difficulty:   between 126871627966514 and 126904537101028
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.4771% and -0.4513%
Previous Retarget:   August 8, 2026 at 3:33 PM  (+0.9889%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 5:07 PM  (in 3d 6h 37m 46s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 5:13 PM  (in 3d 6h 43m 10s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 34m 0s and 14d 1h 39m 24s








https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/address/bc1q7ss6pzzj6y459tvc4lz8llkwxly7zhps6l2esm

[FP91G]

Recently a mining ban came into effect in Moscow and the surrounding region.

If this is not a coincidence, then the hash rate has dropped very noticeably.
There is no news yet about large miners relocating, so the remaining miners will receive 15-20% more profit.

[philipma1957]

Latest Block:   963234  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.5469%  (1603 / 1610.30 expected, 7.3 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   126231507121868.2                            
Current Difficulty:   127479855693691.4                            
Next Difficulty:   between 126918877028380 and 126942320950170
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.4401% and -0.4217%
Previous Retarget:   August 8, 2026 at 3:33 PM  (+0.9889%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 5:01 PM  (in 2d 21h 4m 56s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 5:05 PM  (in 2d 21h 8m 47s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 27m 55s and 14d 1h 31m 46s


Well even with the large price up tick to 69k

The diff drops a bit.



Latest Block:   963311  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.4888%  (1680 / 1688.63 expected, 8.63 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   126231507121868.2                            
Current Difficulty:   127479855693691.4                            
Next Difficulty:   between 126844037873466 and 126861613825702
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.4988% and -0.4850%
Previous Retarget:   August 8, 2026 at 3:33 PM  (+0.9889%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 5:14 PM  (in 2d 8h 14m 23s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 5:17 PM  (in 2d 8h 17m 15s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 40m 42s and 14d 1h 43m 35s


nice price jump

and diff is down just a bit so some relief for mining.


https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/address/bc1q7ss6pzzj6y459tvc4lz8llkwxly7zhps6l2esm




bc1q7ss6pzzj6y459tvc4lz8llkwxly7zhps6l2esm

[alh]

For what it's worth: BTC "uptick" now to $73K per coin.

[philipma1957]

For what it's worth: BTC "uptick" now to $73K per coin.

Nice back in the black.

About 2800 in coin mined for about 2300 in power.

And since I held the mining from April May June July Aug.

It is 5x 500 a month.

If we could get to 85k and stay i would be comfortable and maybe cash a bit

We topped 75k!

newhedge.io/btc/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   963373  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.5796%  (1742 / 1767.10 expected, 25.1 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   126231507121868.2                            
Current Difficulty:   127479855693691.4                            
Next Difficulty:   between 125684205616398 and 125716916625079
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.4086% and -1.3829%
Previous Retarget:   August 8, 2026 at 3:33 PM  (+0.9889%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 8:18 PM  (in 1d 22h 14m 6s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 8:24 PM  (in 1d 22h 19m 28s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 4h 45m 6s and 14d 4h 50m 28s


The drop and the price jump will be helpful


https://newhedge.io/btc/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   963455  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.9289%  (1824 / 1843.75 expected, 19.75 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   126231507121868.2                           
Current Difficulty:   127479855693691.4                           
Next Difficulty:   between 126128938467603 and 126141063001856
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.0597% and -1.0502%
Previous Retarget:   August 8, 2026 at 3:33 PM  (+0.9889%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 7:10 PM  (in 1d 8h 18m 48s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 7:12 PM  (in 1d 8h 20m 47s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 3h 36m 17s and 14d 3h 38m 15s

[joker_josue]

Current Pace:   98.9289%  (1824 / 1843.75 expected, 19.75 behind)

With this price increase, shouldn't we start seeing more hash data entering the network?

If the difficulty outlook is low, it's because the miners are still waiting for the difficulty to change before starting their machines again, right?

[philipma1957]

at joker part of the diff drop may be Russian push against mining

lets all collectively thank Putin if that is the case.



new hedge.io

Latest Block:   963502  (6 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.4458%  (1871 / 1900.54 expected, 29.54 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   126231507121868.2                            
Current Difficulty:   127479855693691.4                            
Next Difficulty:   between 125512494083497 and 125522515271541
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.5433% and -1.5354%
Previous Retarget:   August 8, 2026 at 3:33 PM  (+0.9889%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 8:50 PM  (in 1d 0h 31m 14s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 8:52 PM  (in 1d 0h 32m 53s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 5h 16m 38s and 14d 5h 18m 16s


a 1.5% hash/diff drop and a 20% price jump is nice


https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   963583  (17 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.9877%  (1952 / 1971.96 expected, 19.96 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   126231507121868.2                           
Current Difficulty:   127479855693691.4                           
Next Difficulty:   between 126202985565175 and 126204259531855
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.0016% and -1.0006%
Previous Retarget:   August 8, 2026 at 3:33 PM  (+0.9889%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 6:59 PM  (in 0d 10h 46m 20s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 6:59 PM  (in 0d 10h 46m 32s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 3h 25m 56s and 14d 3h 26m 9s


well two weeks ago price was about 64.9k we are 77.2k

so 772/649=1.19 or a 19% uptick

so this is enough to truly help out my miner.

I DCA all coins so about 0.0011x234=0.257 btc on dca for this year.

.257x64.9=16,679  usd is now
.257x77.2=19,840

a gain of 3161 usd in a few days


hoping for higher numbers soon

and hoping that hash/diff stays low

[DaveF]

With this price increase, shouldn't we start seeing more hash data entering the network?

If the difficulty outlook is low, it's because the miners are still waiting for the difficulty to change before starting their machines again, right?

at joker part of the diff drop may be Russian push against mining

lets all collectively thank Putin if that is the case.

Although small little over 1 Eh/s did drop off from the main chain to mine knots.
And, with the still stupid high temps all over the place many utilities are limiting "non essential" power. So that probably cut out a few miners.
I know one the places I have core routing equipment asked us to curtail what we could.

So that is also probably keeping the hashrate down a bit.

-Dave

[Nexus9090]

With this price increase, shouldn't we start seeing more hash data entering the network?

If the difficulty outlook is low, it's because the miners are still waiting for the difficulty to change before starting their machines again, right?

at joker part of the diff drop may be Russian push against mining

lets all collectively thank Putin if that is the case.

Although small little over 1 Eh/s did drop off from the main chain to mine knots.
And, with the still stupid high temps all over the place many utilities are limiting "non essential" power. So that probably cut out a few miners.
I know one the places I have core routing equipment asked us to curtail what we could.

So that is also probably keeping the hashrate down a bit.

-Dave

Hashrate has been in steady decline since November 2025, the rate of drop is starting to bottom out by the looks of it.

However, after looking at historical movements in BTC's value, I noticed a 4 month pattern with the price drops.

I could well be wrong but if the pattern holds we could see another drop in September that would likely put BTC into the $40-50K region even after its recent gains, at which point for many it becomes completely unprofitable to mine.

That combined with the next halving which is around April 2028 (which isn't as far away as it seems) could see a total collapse of mining and the global hash rate.

I think in the next 18-24 months BTC is going to face an existential crisis and I don't think mining for fees is going to cut it.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/btc/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   963607  (29 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   98.7845%  (1976 / 2000.31 expected, 24.31 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   126231507121868.2                           
Current Difficulty:   127479855693691.4                           
Next Difficulty:   between 125943655932131 and 125944253412188
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.2051% and -1.2046%
Previous Retarget:   August 8, 2026 at 3:33 PM  (+0.9889%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 7:41 PM  (in 0d 6h 44m 49s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 7:41 PM  (in 0d 6h 44m 55s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 4h 7m 57s and 14d 4h 8m 3s


To me a mining crisis is very easy to stop this time as the amount of funding needed to bump btc to a good level is no larger then the

move silver made from August 2025 to January 2026.

So if a pump like silver occurs over the next 5 months mining will be fine.

However if the pump does not happen early mining will hurt.

So we will soon see what occurs.

Last time we had an early ath of 70k in March of 2024

I could see us go up again and even earlier

[FP91G]

With this price increase, shouldn't we start seeing more hash data entering the network?

If the difficulty outlook is low, it's because the miners are still waiting for the difficulty to change before starting their machines again, right?

at joker part of the diff drop may be Russian push against mining

lets all collectively thank Putin if that is the case.

Although small little over 1 Eh/s did drop off from the main chain to mine knots.
And, with the still stupid high temps all over the place many utilities are limiting "non essential" power. So that probably cut out a few miners.
I know one the places I have core routing equipment asked us to curtail what we could.

So that is also probably keeping the hashrate down a bit.

-Dave

Hashrate has been in steady decline since November 2025, the rate of drop is starting to bottom out by the looks of it.

However, after looking at historical movements in BTC's value, I noticed a 4 month pattern with the price drops.

I could well be wrong but if the pattern holds we could see another drop in September that would likely put BTC into the $40-50K region even after its recent gains, at which point for many it becomes completely unprofitable to mine.

That combined with the next halving which is around April 2028 (which isn't as far away as it seems) could see a total collapse of mining and the global hash rate.

I think in the next 18-24 months BTC is going to face an existential crisis and I don't think mining for fees is going to cut it.

What if Bitcoin updates its ATH this year?
If the Bitcoin price doesn't rise before the halving, problems will arise for both mining and mining equipment manufacturers. Although these manufacturers produce ASICs for various coins, the majority of them are designed for Bitcoin.

[philipma1957]

With this price increase, shouldn't we start seeing more hash data entering the network?

If the difficulty outlook is low, it's because the miners are still waiting for the difficulty to change before starting their machines again, right?

at joker part of the diff drop may be Russian push against mining

lets all collectively thank Putin if that is the case.

Although small little over 1 Eh/s did drop off from the main chain to mine knots.
And, with the still stupid high temps all over the place many utilities are limiting "non essential" power. So that probably cut out a few miners.
I know one the places I have core routing equipment asked us to curtail what we could.

So that is also probably keeping the hashrate down a bit.

-Dave

Hashrate has been in steady decline since November 2025, the rate of drop is starting to bottom out by the looks of it.

However, after looking at historical movements in BTC's value, I noticed a 4 month pattern with the price drops.

I could well be wrong but if the pattern holds we could see another drop in September that would likely put BTC into the $40-50K region even after its recent gains, at which point for many it becomes completely unprofitable to mine.

That combined with the next halving which is around April 2028 (which isn't as far away as it seems) could see a total collapse of mining and the global hash rate.

I think in the next 18-24 months BTC is going to face an existential crisis and I don't think mining for fees is going to cut it.

What if Bitcoin updates its ATH this year?
If the Bitcoin price doesn't rise before the halving, problems will arise for both mining and mining equipment manufacturers. Although these manufacturers produce ASICs for various coins, the majority of them are designed for Bitcoin.

Btc certainly needs a stronger rally sooner than 2028 April.

Even this move just makes mining tolerable for low price power with very good gear.


Latest Block:   963616  (a few seconds ago)

Current Pace:   98.9267%  (1985 / 2006.54 expected, 21.54 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   126231507121868.2                           
Current Difficulty:   127479855693691.4                           
Next Difficulty:   between 126124900860963 and 126125217837792
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.0629% and -1.0626%
Previous Retarget:   August 8, 2026 at 3:33 PM  (+0.9889%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 7:12 PM  (in 0d 5h 13m 18s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 7:12 PM  (in 0d 5h 13m 21s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 3h 38m 40s and 14d 3h 38m 43s


The numbers above are not that good for a six cent guy and all s21s

200x0.032= 6.40 a day

86 kwatts at six cents is 5.28

They are 1.12 ahead per machine and they were crushed when we were at 62-65k