2026 Difficulty Thread

[Nexus9090]

If miners had thought this way 10 years ago, they'd probably all be millionaires now.
But I only know one miner from my old company who forgot to sell several dozen bitcoins. It was an accident.  Miners never even considered holding on to their coins for 10 years.

The thing is, more than 10 years ago, nobody mined with the goal of making a profit. Because nobody made a profit from mining.

I'm not saying that you shouldn't make a profit. I'm just saying that the objective was different.

At the time, mining was done because people believed in the project and what it could bring. Therefore, it was irrelevant whether the rewards would be smaller or not over time; what mattered was supporting the project.

Most miners may not have become millionaires because they sold at the first opportunity to pay their electricity bills. But perhaps, if many had believed in the appreciation that BTC experienced, they would have mined much more, even with the high cost of energy.

Perhaps mining would be much more decentralized than that today.

I remember my mining in 2015 very well. I started with a few graphics cards, then did the calculations and saw that the payback period for a graphics card was about six months. All the miners in our community were doing it for profit, but we spent the profits on buying new graphics cards.
I don't even remember a single thought that the price of Bitcoin could grow 100-200 times, I saw the price of Bitcoin at $300.

I think that's true for a lot of us. Upgrading to stay competitive with the ever increasing DIFF means you end up spending more on kit than you ever earn from it.

Back when I first started I had a few Antminer U2 USB stick miners, I earned the most off of them that I've ever earned from mining BTC, its a shame I forgot about them when I moved home. I often wish I'd just kept it running.

However my biggest regret was not completing the purchase of 500BTC right back at the beginning when I first started mining. I had the option but never took it. Regretted it ever since.

[philipma1957]

Realistically I should have made 2-4 million since 2012
I have made 200k maybe a little more.

Latest Block:   964764  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.1531%  (1117 / 1115.29 expected, 1.71 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   127479855693691.4                           
Current Difficulty:   125807076547197.5                           
Next Difficulty:   between 126366961911752 and 126506706579529
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.4450% and +0.5561%
Previous Retarget:   August 22, 2026 at 8:04 PM  (-1.3122%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 7:33 PM  (in 6d 5h 36m 15s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 7:39 PM  (in 6d 5h 42m 23s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 23h 29m 11s and 13d 23h 35m 18s

[joker_josue]

I remember my mining in 2015 very well. I started with a few graphics cards, then did the calculations and saw that the payback period for a graphics card was about six months. All the miners in our community were doing it for profit, but we spent the profits on buying new graphics cards.
I don't even remember a single thought that the price of Bitcoin could grow 100-200 times, I saw the price of Bitcoin at $300.

Now, try to imagine what mining was like in 2010-2013. Nobody even imagined that Bitcoin would reach $100. People mined with their home PCs, without buying large extra equipment.

I still remember my first mining experience in 2013. After a month of mining, I was shocked by the electricity bill.
But I mined for a few months, for the project and the experience, not for what it might actually bring me to benefit from.

Many miners at the time were mining at a loss (if not all), investing only because they believed in the project.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   964867  (28 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.1865%  (1220 / 1217.73 expected, 2.27 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   127479855693691.4                            
Current Difficulty:   125807076547197.5                            
Next Difficulty:   between 126396570098884 and 126506050473303
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.4686% and +0.5556%
Previous Retarget:   August 22, 2026 at 8:04 PM  (-1.3122%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 7:26 PM  (in 5d 12h 25m 11s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 7:32 PM  (in 5d 12h 31m 2s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 23h 22m 28s and 13d 23h 28m 19s


June 8 2025 the diff was 126.98t

August 31 2026 the diff is 125.8

so down 1.18 t over a 14.5month time frame.

but price is down over 25%

106346   last June 8 2025
  78641  this August 31 2026

[FP91G]

I remember my mining in 2015 very well. I started with a few graphics cards, then did the calculations and saw that the payback period for a graphics card was about six months. All the miners in our community were doing it for profit, but we spent the profits on buying new graphics cards.
I don't even remember a single thought that the price of Bitcoin could grow 100-200 times, I saw the price of Bitcoin at $300.

Now, try to imagine what mining was like in 2010-2013. Nobody even imagined that Bitcoin would reach $100. People mined with their home PCs, without buying large extra equipment.

I still remember my first mining experience in 2013. After a month of mining, I was shocked by the electricity bill.
But I mined for a few months, for the project and the experience, not for what it might actually bring me to benefit from.

Many miners at the time were mining at a loss (if not all), investing only because they believed in the project.

Unfortunately, I got into mining after ASICs for Bitcoin appeared, I think it was in 2013.
I remember miners actively working with the CoIntellect project, which was very profitable. It was one of the major cryptocurrency pyramid schemes, but the project paid miners well, and my teachers emerged from that scheme with a good profit.

[joker_josue]

Unfortunately, I got into mining after ASICs for Bitcoin appeared, I think it was in 2013.

Yes, it was in 2013 that ASIC miners began to emerge.
But I partly blame the discourse that emerged at the time: "it's no longer worth mining with GPUs," for not having mined more.

Yes, over time mining Bitcoin with a GPU would cease to be worthwhile, but if more had been mined at the time, it would still have been quite advantageous.

Either way, the electricity bill scared me, and I wasn't in the best financial shape either... so I ("stupidly") chose to stop mining. 

[philipma1957]

newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   965036  (a few seconds ago)

Current Pace:   101.1138%  (1389 / 1373.70 expected, 15.3 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   127479855693691.4                           
Current Difficulty:   125807076547197.5                           
Next Difficulty:   between 127445577383490 and 127623572532820
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.3024% and +1.4439%
Previous Retarget:   August 22, 2026 at 8:04 PM  (-1.3122%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 4:22 PM  (in 4d 7h 20m 56s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 4:43 PM  (in 4d 7h 42m 24s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 20h 17m 56s and 13d 20h 39m 24s


looks like a small uptick likely due to bitmain fitting the s23y hydro into their own data centers.

[FP91G]

Unfortunately, I got into mining after ASICs for Bitcoin appeared, I think it was in 2013.

Yes, it was in 2013 that ASIC miners began to emerge.
But I partly blame the discourse that emerged at the time: "it's no longer worth mining with GPUs," for not having mined more.

Yes, over time mining Bitcoin with a GPU would cease to be worthwhile, but if more had been mined at the time, it would still have been quite advantageous.

Either way, the electricity bill scared me, and I wasn't in the best financial shape either... so I ("stupidly") chose to stop mining. 

Are you saying that if you hadn't stopped mining, you would have kept your coins?
I understand that profit depends on the cost of electricity, and when I started, electricity cost 2-3 cents and there was no oversight from energy companies. A private home could easily consume tens of thousands of kilowatts. That's impossible now.

[joker_josue]

Are you saying that if you hadn't stopped mining, you would have kept your coins?

I still have coins from mining.

Back then, I could easily have mined twice as much, so I would have at least twice as much as I have today.

Of course I would have sold it; I'd be in a more favorable situation today. Logically, it's easy to say now, but I don't know what I would have done back then.

[FP91G]

Are you saying that if you hadn't stopped mining, you would have kept your coins?

I still have coins from mining.

Back then, I could easily have mined twice as much, so I would have at least twice as much as I have today.

Of course I would have sold it; I'd be in a more favorable situation today. Logically, it's easy to say now, but I don't know what I would have done back then.

I also have many different wallets for coins that are already dead or worth a few dollars. That's why miners sold the coins back then; everyone was afraid of being left with digital trash.
Maybe it made sense to keep a small portion of the coins back then, but no one even thought about it.

[philipma1957]

newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   965196  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.3216%  (1549 / 1544.03 expected, 4.97 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   127479855693691.4                            
Current Difficulty:   125807076547197.5                            
Next Difficulty:   between 126536482076825 and 126578094993796
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.5798% and +0.6129%
Previous Retarget:   August 22, 2026 at 8:04 PM  (-1.3122%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 6:59 PM  (in 3d 5h 35m 1s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 7:02 PM  (in 3d 5h 38m 29s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 22h 55m 22s and 13d 22h 58m 50s


under a 1% jump up

and price is a bit lower due to various reasons.

77k last I looked

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Latest Block:   965373  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.8453%  (1726 / 1711.53 expected, 14.47 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   127479855693691.4                            
Current Difficulty:   125807076547197.5                            
Next Difficulty:   between 127173519260801 and 127202712254375
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.0861% and +1.1093%
Previous Retarget:   August 22, 2026 at 8:04 PM  (-1.3122%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 5:15 PM  (in 1d 23h 55m 41s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 5:18 PM  (in 1d 23h 59m 11s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 21h 11m 1s and 13d 21h 14m 31s

about 2 days to go and we are up about 1%
price is 81k last I looked.

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Latest Block:   965552  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.8726%  (1905 / 1888.52 expected, 16.48 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   127479855693691.4                            
Current Difficulty:   125807076547197.5                            
Next Difficulty:   between 127201661254163 and 127205949016823
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.1085% and +1.1119%
Previous Retarget:   August 22, 2026 at 8:04 PM  (-1.3122%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 5:09 PM  (in 0d 18h 20m 23s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 5:10 PM  (in 0d 18h 20m 55s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 21h 5m 36s and 13d 21h 6m 8s


Just around +1%

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https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   965609  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   101.0112%  (1962 / 1942.36 expected, 19.64 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   127479855693691.4                            
Current Difficulty:   125807076547197.5                            
Next Difficulty:   between 127371237809846 and 127372374834478
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.2433% and +1.2442%
Previous Retarget:   August 22, 2026 at 8:04 PM  (-1.3122%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 4:42 PM  (in 0d 8h 54m 35s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 4:42 PM  (in 0d 8h 54m 44s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 20h 38m 10s and 13d 20h 38m 19s


we may do +1% to +2%

price is 79.6k

two weeks ago price was around 77k

so this will be a  better than break even adjustment if price closes at 79.6k