^^ There is a logic behind why people like me who say that we are going to crash even harder. The logic is that in almost every single 4 year period, bitcoin had a bull and bear cycle and for that reason 2026 could be very well be a bear year. In 2017 it peaked, in 2018 it crashed, in 2021 it peaked and in 2022 it crashed and in 2025 it peaked so we assume in 2026 it should crash and that is a logic. Doesn't mean we are right, we could be wrong of course, but at least there is a logic and reason why we believe this.
But when it comes to thinking it will go up, there is no similar thing in history or any pattern that shows this, so the only logic they have is "that's how I feel it will do" and nothing more, which is why ours makes more sense right now.
The 4-year cycle is a perfectly valid pattern that bitcoin followed for a long time and it would have followed it to the T if the global economy has not been disrupted significantly over the past couple of years (ever since the cycle pattern broke).
The first being 2020 where the global pandemic (COVID19) caused a global recession and prevented the bitcoin rally to end like previous times in a massive ATH and a bubble that would have burst marking the end of the cycle and starting the next.
The second was in 2022 when the world was slowly recovering from the recession I mentioned that war broke out between NATO and Russia. Something that started another major recession and prevented bitcoin rally from finishing like last time!
This new pattern of chaos-recession-inflation-more chaos has been the new world ever since 2022 and things are getting more chaotic with US regime destabilizing the whole world, attacking Europeans, Canada, South Americans, Asians, Africans,... Just past week alone the pedophile in White House threatened to carry out strikes in oil-rich Iran to which Iran promised deadly and swift retaliatory strikes.
Consequently dollar dumped, gold went up roughly 10% to $5400, oil up 18% to $70+ while bitcoin dropped 10% to $83000 all in one week.
As long as this
destabilization strategy exists, the markets will continue to behave unpredictably and there won't be any bitcoin's 4-year cycles or any other kind of cycle or pattern that we can predict.
What do you mean? Volatility may have gone down a bit but just from looking at the monthly chart and looking at the dates of the halvings, the 4 year cycle looks like it's still mostly there give or take a few weeks from the bottom to the top and the top to the bottom.
And with BTC's market cap in the trillions now, it also means it needs a way more USD, fiat money to make it move like it used to like it was under 10 billion market cap.
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