BTC Sentiment Poll for 2026

[tokeweed]

Well...  Here you go guys.  Here's a simple but a challenging poll to start the year as promised in my December sentiment thread.    The poll will be open for three months but the thread will be open until the end of the year.

I hope this will spur a lot of interesting discussions from you guys.  Our monthly sentiment polls will start in February.  I just want to get this poll up to see what everyone says about 2026 during the first three of months of the year.

[Zaguru12]

To be honest this year will be one interesting year to actually predict the bitcoin market price, in the past we were usually guided with bitcoin trend which follows greatly the historical trend and one only needed to do some technical analysis and then predict the market and even if the prediction doesn’t goes exact you experience just little market correction due to maybe economical or fundamental factors but right now it doesn’t look like it.

Right now the historical trend looks like it is broken and that makes prediction harder. Also fundamental factors now most especially world economic crisis or growth affects the trend more. Last year many Technical analysis wasn’t obeyed due to this reasons. If this was actually the historical bitcoin trend I would have easily predicted a bearish bitcoin market for the year 2026.

But with the bearish market starting since 2025 I think it will be far too stretched that we will see all the year ending in bearish conditions so I expect some bullish quarters but a new ATH this year? I am not predicting that, my realistic predictions is a price above $100k will trigger but not new ATH this year

[Yaunfitda]

I voted for No.

I might be wrong, but if we're basing on the 4 year cycle, then we could be in the bear season already. Which mean the price could be on a decline for the whole year of 2026 and we could be in a bear ride and it will be very rough year. Coming from a all time high of $126k, we might see the worst at 60%, when most investors are going to be in a retreat and their money going on other assets outside of crypto like gold and silver or even government bonds.. And there are also outside factors that can really affect us negatively like interest rates and inflation and global recession.

[Bitcoin_people]

We have finished the speculation of 2025 through various discussions and the price of Bitcoin has finally failed to touch $100k. We can see that it is currently the first day of the new year and today the price of Bitcoin is in the range of $87k, looking at the market conditions at the moment, it seems that there is a high possibility of going to a good position in the new year. However, according to the way many of them are predicting, it seems that the Bitcoin market may increase in January. Moreover, many are predicting that since the market may also be moving towards a decline in 2026, in that case, the percentage of decline is higher than the increase. We have seen that the highest ATH was in the Bitcoin market in 2025, but many think that this year may be the year when it may exceed this value again. However, I think that according to the four-year cycle, the Bitcoin market is more likely to fall, but after the next halving, the Bitcoin market may enter a bull season again.

[Jewan420]

I voted "Yes" with hope for Bitcoin. Although it seems a bit difficult, I still see the possibility of a new ATH.

However, 2026 is more likely to be bearish. Maybe we don't see a new ATH, but I dream of an ATH above $100k. Maybe it will happen very soon and the ATH could be in the $110k-$115k range or even higher. I'm not trying to predict based on any statistics, because there was something different about Bitcoin in 2025 that was different from the previous statistics. So I'm hoping for something different!

[Nwada001]

The year is just getting started; we have plenty of time to think and reconsider our prediction. Based on how we ended last year and the fact that the bitcoin price has not dropped down below 40% since it reached its all-time high, I still consider it very much possible for us to see Bitcoin reach a new all-time high this year. It will only take it to add an additional 40% plus to the current price for it to break into a new all-time high, which is a small percentage for Bitcoin to reach.

[JiiBs]

I don’t think there would be any slow progress with the Bitcoin market in these first 3 months. Following the slow movement of the market where it ended up with lots of consolidation about the $80-90k range, we would definitely see new investors come into the market as well as many institutional buys which would push price towards the ATH while, the bearish market would be preparing to set in.

[Popkon6]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5570151.msg66246120#msg66246120

I have seen signs of Bitcoin price rising since the first day of this January, although it was higher in the past, but currently the price of Bitcoin is at $88888 (five single letters). The beginning of 2026 is a green signal, but of course if this high speed can be maintained in the Bitcoin market for some time, then it will definitely go close to $100K. The price of Bitcoin is most likely to touch $100K very soon.

[Ayers]

I voted "no" because I still believe the market cycle hasn't completely broken, despite some changes. Alongside this, it is easy to see that since the approval of ETFs, the market has become increasingly dependent on macroeconomic and political factors. Given escalating geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and high interest rates, I am not very optimistic about global economic growth in the coming year.

Therefore, my prediction and expectation is that the price of Bitcoin will fall this year, and it would be even better if it could drop below $40k. I see this as an opportunity rather than a disaster, as many people fear.

[GreatArkansas]

I voted "no" because I still believe the market cycle hasn't completely broken, despite some changes. Alongside this, it is easy to see that since the approval of ETFs, the market has become increasingly dependent on macroeconomic and political factors. Given escalating geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and high interest rates, I am not very optimistic about global economic growth in the coming year.

Therefore, my prediction and expectation is that the price of Bitcoin will fall this year, and it would be even better if it could drop below $40k. I see this as an opportunity rather than a disaster, as many people fear.

I can't decide, but I am more inclined to agree with your speculation. Like, even if we do not create a new all-time high, I can still see that we will not dump hard like below $60,000. Like we may have long winter market, more sideways ranging between $60,000 - $100,000.
It's really difficult to predict this market, especially since we already have a high market cap.

[free-bit.co.in]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5570151.msg66246120#msg66246120

I have seen signs of Bitcoin price rising since the first day of this January, although it was higher in the past, but currently the price of Bitcoin is at $88888 (five single letters). The beginning of 2026 is a green signal, but of course if this high speed can be maintained in the Bitcoin market for some time, then it will definitely go close to $100K. The price of Bitcoin is most likely to touch $100K very soon.

But is this a sign of a new bull run, or just a dead cat bounce even if bitcoin recovers and returns to $100k?

I am confident that 2026 will be a year of strong growth and Bitcoin could reach a new ATH. I think we need more positive signals, especially regarding the macroeconomic situation, cash flow, and overall market sentiment. The fact that Bitcoin has returned to the $100k is not enough and doesn't say much.

I also predict Bitcoin will return to above $100k, but to me, that's just a temporary recovery. I believe we are already in a bear market.

[Shineup]

I voted "no" because I still believe the market cycle hasn't completely broken, despite some changes. Alongside this, it is easy to see that since the approval of ETFs, the market has become increasingly dependent on macroeconomic and political factors. Given escalating geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and high interest rates, I am not very optimistic about global economic growth in the coming year.

Therefore, my prediction and expectation is that the price of Bitcoin will fall this year, and it would be even better if it could drop below $40k. I see this as an opportunity rather than a disaster, as many people fear.

The market so many times has pull out to be a surprise, it can come as a surprise to you as it may end up hitting a new all time high this year rather than fallen though your predictions and expectations can be correct too I mean anything could either happen because the market has been functioning this way. However, is hard to foresee the future with all assurance all what we could do now assumptions and for me I see Bitcoin going up than coming down this year.

[Free Market Capitalist]

I haven't voted because after what happened in 2025, I have no idea what might happen in 2026. Trying to predict, I think we won't see any big ups or downs from this price. So maybe we'll move in a range between $60K and $120K if things go well and liquidity comes in. Although I hope I'm wrong and the price goes up a lot.

[LogitechMouse]

Well, this is all about predicting what could happen in the whole crypto market for this year so... I'll just share mine.

I'm a believer of the 4-year cycle and because of that, I expect that 2026 will be a year where we will see the market going down hence, the start of the bear market season. Because of that, I expect that Bitcoin will go down to as low as maybe around $30,000 - $50,000 before it goes up. That might change though especially with the addition of large institutions and Spot Bitcoin ETF, we might even see either lower or higher than that price range that I said.

I also voted for "No" because I expect a bear market year, and we're just waiting for the final "relief bounce" before it starts to go down yet again. The more we stay below the Weekly 50 MA, the higher the chances that we are indeed in a bear market season, and we will not see a new ATH at least this time. The market is unpredictable though, and we could see something that we haven't seen in the history of cryptocurrency. Who knows? We might see a super-cycle, something that CZ even said.

[ultrloa]

I haven't voted because after what happened in 2025, I have no idea what might happen in 2026. Trying to predict, I think we won't see any big ups or downs from this price. So maybe we'll move in a range between $60K and $120K if things go well and liquidity comes in. Although I hope I'm wrong and the price goes up a lot.

Can't blame you to think that way since everyone provably got surprise to see some upsets on the price of Bitcoin especially that no one expect to see a bearish movement for Bitcoin on last quarter of the year 2025.

Also had more sense to think about stable price than more volatile movements in this year. That $60k and $120k will possibly gonna happen if market is at sustainable phase and it can possibly have a possible strong movement in future.

But as always nobody can predict how the market moves, but if they choose to be realistic while hoping some good movements still right to think about. I believe to continue accumulating during in that ranges still rewarding when next possible bullish movement happens.

[tokeweed]

I voted "no" because I still believe the market cycle hasn't completely broken, despite some changes. Alongside this, it is easy to see that since the approval of ETFs, the market has become increasingly dependent on macroeconomic and political factors. Given escalating geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and high interest rates, I am not very optimistic about global economic growth in the coming year.

Therefore, my prediction and expectation is that the price of Bitcoin will fall this year, and it would be even better if it could drop below $40k. I see this as an opportunity rather than a disaster, as many people fear.

I can't decide, but I am more inclined to agree with your speculation. Like, even if we do not create a new all-time high, I can still see that we will not dump hard like below $60,000. Like we may have long winter market, more sideways ranging between $60,000 - $100,000.
It's really difficult to predict this market, especially since we already have a high market cap.

Yup, that's the thing about the poll.  It's so simple and hard at the same time that it makes everybody a bit hesitant to pick a vote. 

I mean it's supposed to be easy...  'Is BTC going to a new all time high in 2026 or not?'.  But even the 'smartest' people in BCT can't really pick one with strong conviction.  They even avoid the sentiment threads because these things have a tendency to make them look dumb.  Lol.