Bitcoin

[LogitechMouse]

I don't trust the cycle anymore. Now, it's already difficult to follow that, especially how Bitcoin reacts to the global market, like the stock market or even the trade wars between the United States and other countries; it's already huge.
About the ETF selling pressure, this is temporary, and another basis or input about how the price reacts, but as I said, Bitcoin is already different now. The target is double of the current all-time high, so for me, if ever we reach that within this year 2026? It's kinda too fast, but still possible.

I've said in the past that I'm a firm believer of the 4-year cycle, but with the addition of these large institutions, there might be a chance that we might see a different cycle this time, and in the future. We might even see Bitcoin decoupling with the Stock Market Index particularly the S&P500.

Still, as long as this year will not end and we see the market going down, I will still believe of the 4-year cycle despite of what's happening. ETFs might have a big impact towards the price movement not only of Bitcoin, but on other altcoins as well, but anyway, let's see how will the crypto market will be this year. You said that the target is double of the recent ATH which is around $126,000 which means the target is around $250,000. Will it be reached this year? I have doubts that it's impossible unless we will see a VERY HUGE injection of liquidity towards the crypto market then it's possible. If we see a huge transfer of wealth from precious metals, stock market into the crypto market then it's possible. At the end of the day, in order for Bitcoin to reach this, we need a huge amount of liquidity or money to be injected.

[danherbias07]

I don't see 200k - 250k anytime soon. In fact, I don't even see it this year or the next one.

You may be expecting too much. Unless something big comes, there won't be much movement upwards. $100k is like a wall that needs to be broken through. Maybe once Bitcoin reaches that point, there will be a lot of movement that may happen again.
Still, Bitcoin needs a big event to climb up again, and looking at social media and news outlets, it seems like there's nothing yet. Expect a stagnant movement for now, and I think that's also good news.

[Marvelockg]

Do you still see 200k–250k as realistic this cycle, or has the narrative changed? 

whenever there is a sudden bull, we are too fast to make huge speculation of the next price we are headed to making it look like everything revolves around when bitcoin is going to get to one price or the other. if you have remained invested throughout the time bitcoin remained relatively quiet but at the same time remained glued to your investment plan without a plan to change anything, seeing bitcoin getting higher will not so move you because for you, your goal is a long term goal and not one that is relative to only short term market sentiment.

[STT]

I dont know 200k has to happen, you can tell that better when the new ATH appears but higher then here is normal I think and there is no reasoning to disbelieve that happens with fair expectations.

Since mid December when leaving the negative trend, BTC has been gaining roughly in line with a weekly average though not perfect there has been a subdued positive bias.   We are still above the weekly average now, above the 50 day average and likely to go higher in a undeterminable way.

My long term aim is for BTC to meet the 200 day average, when we're on the highest prices I expect that return to the average to occur even if it means lower.  Inversely now while we are below the 200 day average, I expect a return back to that level.
  Only when we have measure and response to longer term momentum will it be clearer to judge such things as ATH, cycles, etc.

[Cyber_warrior]

It seems that many people are very pessimistic to see bitcoin can print a new ATH again this year, for the problem of increasing if it touches the price of $100k alone it is very good but really can't be trusted to cross that limit when facing an bear market, we do need to be prepared and need to be aware of the current market situation for the safety of our portfolio and expectations of the market.

Bitcoin price hitting a new all time high is something that’s possible, and am also part of people that are expecting bitcoin price to hit a new all time high this year. Bitcoin price has been below $100k for the past few months now, and I don’t know for how long it’s going to stay in the price range, but bitcoin price hitting a new all time high is realistic, but we should be prepared also, people are just making predictions, but nobody knows what’s going to happen, nobody is sure if bitcoin will be able to hit another all time high this year.

[Out of mind]

Hi guys , Bitcoin has been ranging between 88k–90k for a while now.
What’s your take on this consolidation? Is it ETF selling pressure, macro conditions, or just a healthy accumulation phase?
Do you still see 200k–250k as realistic this cycle, or has the narrative changed? 

If we follow the current cycle and make a prediction, then we can definitely say that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $200k to $250k is very low. If we see that the market is likely to enter a recession, then today I saw the market enter a major dumping from $97k to $91k. However, in 2026, the price of Bitcoin may stay above $100k and then go into a recession.

And if in 2026 the price of Bitcoin forms a new ATH again, then it will be great, but at this stage we can expect Bitcoin to reach $250k after the next halving. But if we follow the cycle, then I think in 2026 the price of Bitcoin may increase slightly and then start to fall.