The country's president that Trump can likely capture unexpectedly will be the Colombian president, in the person of Gustavo Petro. Another president will be the Brazilian president, Luiz Inacio. The timing of when such a capture will take place is what nobody can tell. It could be before or after a year time, not within two months as you predict it to be.
I don't believe that at all, and it seems to me that you just bought examples of some presidents that Trump does not like regardless of any realistic prospects of him wanting to capture them. He does not like the president of Mexico either and for very good reasons, but that does not mean that they would go as far as to do the same actions that they did in Venezuela. When considering these things we have to be realistic, and doing something like this is pretty big so there must be very good reasons to do it.
What I want to point out, the arrest of these men(president) won't affect the price of Bitcoin in any way. Like the day the arrest of Venezuela president and his wife was made by the US government, did the crypto market react to it? It was as if nothing happened because the Venezuela government had nothing to do with Bitcoin.
You can't make a general world statement about this, because each situation is quite unique and warrants its own examination. Taking out Maduro was a good thing and it did not have an effect on the price of Bitcoin. This does not mean that taking out any president will have the same result, that is that it won't have any effect on Bitcoin. You have to make a better analysis, and to dismiss the argument as false we can focus on improbable examples. What if he took the president of Canada, UK, Mexico, or EU? Even if the chances are slim, this would definitely have a big impact on the overall markets and maybe Bitcoin too.
The geopolitical situation isn't good, and there is so much tension all around, mostly created by Trump's policies. There is a Greenland issue, the US wants another strike on Iran, and rising global tensions have made a bad impact on cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin seems to be under a lot of pressure.
To claim this is incorrect and just plain wrong, none of this was created by Trump. The situation with Iran precedes both of Trump's presidencies, the situation with Maduro does as well. Now Greenland is a new topic, but that does not mean that this is a really a big geopolitical issue yet. It seems that most users still don't understand the Trump playbook here, even if it is quite basic. You are responding to his behavior in the wrong way. He will ask for something huge, something crazy so that you will settle down to something more normal, for the thing that he really wanted anyway.
However, if this is not the bear market, the bitcoin needs to recover quickly and fast. I think that making a lower low or not recovering 100K$ soon will confirm the trigger of a bear market. Also the seniments are so bearish, no new money coming in bitcoin and people are going all in, in Gold and Silver.
This is not a bear market and some negative price performance does not make it a real bear market, people are just impatient and very sensitive these days. The sentiment showed that most people were very fearful as soon as it started dipping even a little bit, months ago.
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