Polymarket.com - Bets on any events (politics, sports, crypto markets, and more)

[Hispo]

he (or she?)

He. 
It's not just Google employees, but also (allegedly), politicians, government officials, a soldier, and influencers. LOL it's a feeding frenzy.
Not surprising, considering Polymarket may not have enough checks, verifications, and barriers put in place to stop these actors from making insider trades, all they have is that "multi-layered monitoring system".
If this continues the case over the next few weeks and months, I guess what this guy says will inevitably happen. 

Don't be surprised if 1-3 week(s)/month(s)/year(s) from now PolyMarket.com will have a one page showing "This website has ceased operations".

And we also need to keep in mind those are cases we all are aware of, because those people got discovered and held into account by their justice systems. There is must hundreds or even thousands of other cases we don't know about because those inside traders have managed to keep a low profile or because they are from countries whose administrations do not actually case about inside trading from their jurisdictions.

I could actually see some people within the Russian administration to make use of their privileged information to pocket millions of dollars and not getting punished at all. In a similar manner Russian hackers are not touched, as long as they do not mess with Russia directly.

[iv4n]

This PolyMarket thing is a disaster waiting to happen...

We've been in this thing before with e-gold, LibertyReserve ... Polymarket is registered/operating from the US .... maybe the Trump administration might give it a pass (maybe not), what's for sure - it's a disaster waiting to happen.

https://www.zogby.com/investing/prediction-markets/best-prediction-market-platforms/

1. Polymarket — Liquidity King, Off-Limits for Americans

Polymarket is, by volume, the largest prediction market in the world. During the 2024 US presidential election, it processed over $3.5 billion in total trading volume. A single contract on "Will Trump win?" had $1.2 billion in lifetime volume. No other prediction market comes close.

I guess we can say that nobody is too big to fall... History is full of dominant players that looked untouchable until they were not. At the same time, the doors are opened, and if Polymarket falls, the question is who will replace it...

Don't be surprised if 1-3 week(s)/month(s)/year(s) from now PolyMarket.com will have a one page showing "This website has ceased operations".

I will not be surprised... anything is possible. The question is, do you think it will happen overnight or will it be a slow decline?

[mikel_012]

Don't be surprised if 1-3 week(s)/month(s)/year(s) from now PolyMarket.com will have a one page showing "This website has ceased operations".

I will not be surprised... anything is possible. The question is, do you think it will happen overnight or will it be a slow decline?

I would be very surprised

Why they would cease operations? Casinos work for years and years, and prediction markets work a lot better for gambling in everything and by abusing regulation to work in many USA states that gambling is not allowed

They make so much money they can use for lobbying to work for years

[noorman0]

-snip-

I will not be surprised... anything is possible. The question is, do you think it will happen overnight or will it be a slow decline?

Perhaps I can make a guess: they will at least survive the Trump administration. They have strong support from political figures.

The second Donald Trump administration eased the regulatory environment for Polymarket.[13][15] At the same time, Polymarket added Donald Trump Jr. as an advisor, after his firm 1789 Capital invested in Polymarket.

If their advisors can move quickly to garner greater support from several figures, even institutions, their position of being overthrown will be much more difficult, even if they face resistance in many jurisdictions.

[Haunebu]

I would be very surprised

Why they would cease operations? Casinos work for years and years, and prediction markets work a lot better for gambling in everything and by abusing regulation to work in many USA states that gambling is not allowed

They make so much money they can use for lobbying to work for years

It all comes down to the government in power. The current government clearly supports it a lot and it's a mutually beneficial relationship for both sides which is why they won't be going down anytime soon unless they shoot themselves in the foot or something.

However, when the democrats regain control with Trump out of the picture, Polymarket might actually go down unless they form another mutually beneficial relationship with them.

[pawel7777]

(...)
He was 12 years working at google. He thew everything away to make $1 million I think, while he was making a lot of money in a high paying job at one of the biggest tech companies

That's the bloody thing, it's not even about the money. He must've been earning a lot in his position, but went for it anyway.
Without a strong moral spine, which most people nowadays lack, it's hard to resist the temptation of an easy exploit, especially when you perceive the risk of getting caught as small. The thrill and excitement of breaking the rules and the satisfaction of "outsmarting" other bettors probably also played a big part.

The pop culture is also to blame to some degree. We've all seen countless movies where relatable and likeable protagonists get involved in high-profile heists, as if it's supposed to be some sort of admirable achievement.

[julerz12]

Another issue arose on X about Polymarket. Some guy on X (willo2_Poly) claims he's been scammed by this platform, around $500,000.
Apparently, he placed Yes on "MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin by May 31st", but Polymarket resolved it to No.

Based on MicroStrategy's 8-K filing, they indeed sold some BTC; the sales happened between May 26-31. [source].



I guess the problem here was that the confirmation was only announced by MicroStrategy on June 1st? And since it's past the deadline (May 31st), Polymarket resolved it to No (cmmiiw).

You can read the full thread on X on his post in the source link below.
Source: https://x.com/willo2_Poly/status/2061640812132516321

[Haunebu]

I guess the problem here was that the confirmation was only announced by MicroStrategy on June 1st? And since it's past the deadline (May 31st), Polymarket resolved it to No (cmmiiw).

Damn! Looks like a whale got screwed though this is nothing new there since betting on prediction markets always carries this extra annoying risk. The team members of such sites are the judge and jury which is why their decision is final regardless of its legitimacy.

This is why I usually stick to sports markets on Polymarket where there is no such extra risk and tend to bet on prediction markets only now and then.

[viljy]

You can read the full thread on X on his post in the source link below.
Source: https://x.com/willo2_Poly/status/2061640812132516321

In this story with the sale before May 31, it seems that initially it was not stated in the text of the terms of the deal that confirmation of the outcome of the event should be only until May 31. By the way, how is this even possible if the report for the past period is submitted after the period, and not during the period? Despite the fact that such information can only be reliable from Strategy itself? After all, this is not a public handshake or the result of a match that everyone sees.

And even worse, making changes to the terms of the deal after! To justify his mistake, the Polymarket did this. Yes, this is initially the mistake of the Polymarket, which incorrectly drafted the terms of the transaction. Then this mistake turned into fraud in order to get out of the situation by retroactively changing the terms of the deal.

[NotATether]

Another issue arose on X about Polymarket. Some guy on X (willo2_Poly) claims he's been scammed by this platform, around $500,000.
Apparently, he placed Yes on "MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin by May 31st", but Polymarket resolved it to No.

Well hey, that happens. I remember in the Iran internet access market for May 31 when YES rapidly reached 80% and then almost completely collapsed, probably because of some rule clarification, so I thought "this market is rug-pulling, why don't I ride it and buy NO?". So I bought a small sized NO share, only $30.

Suffice it to say, for about 2 hours after that, bots and whales kept fighting over the share price and eventually Yes went all the way up to 100%. And I got what I deserved

But hey I'm happy that our Iranian friends are back on the forum, at least.

[Hispo]

Another issue arose on X about Polymarket. Some guy on X (willo2_Poly) claims he's been scammed by this platform, around $500,000.
Apparently, he placed Yes on "MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin by May 31st", but Polymarket resolved it to No.

Based on MicroStrategy's 8-K filing, they indeed sold some BTC; the sales happened between May 26-31. [source].



I guess the problem here was that the confirmation was only announced by MicroStrategy on June 1st? And since it's past the deadline (May 31st), Polymarket resolved it to No (cmmiiw).

You can read the full thread on X on his post in the source link below.
Source: https://x.com/willo2_Poly/status/2061640812132516321

In my opinion, Polymarket should not use the date of confirmation in order to rule whether or not people won or lost money. They should use the date in which Bitcoins got sold, date which should also be shared with the administration of Strategy themselves.

Also, the fact that person was willing to risk such huge amount of money in such specific market against one of the most bullish entities within Bitcoin ecosystem makes me wonder if that person had privileged information on the coming movements of Microstrategy themselves.

Just another reason to stay away from Polymarket and just to focus in markets which cannot be easily manipulated by a single person, I guess...

[Wind_FURY]

This PolyMarket thing is a disaster waiting to happen...

We've been in this thing before with e-gold, LibertyReserve ... Polymarket is registered/operating from the US .... maybe the Trump administration might give it a pass (maybe not), what's for sure - it's a disaster waiting to happen.

Don't be surprised if 1-3 week(s)/month(s)/year(s) from now PolyMarket.com will have a one page showing "This website has ceased operations".

OK, if YOU believe that Polymarket will "cease operations" within three years, then what prediction market is better for users?

I ask because of how the service's poor handling of the Chad Saylor will sell Bitcoin market. A user has threatened to sue the service.

[dwyane36]

Another issue arose on X about Polymarket. Some guy on X (willo2_Poly) claims he's been scammed by this platform, around $500,000.
Apparently, he placed Yes on "MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin by May 31st", but Polymarket resolved it to No.

Based on MicroStrategy's 8-K filing, they indeed sold some BTC; the sales happened between May 26-31. [source].



I guess the problem here was that the confirmation was only announced by MicroStrategy on June 1st? And since it's past the deadline (May 31st), Polymarket resolved it to No (cmmiiw).

You can read the full thread on X on his post in the source link below.
Source: https://x.com/willo2_Poly/status/2061640812132516321

In my opinion, Polymarket should not use the date of confirmation in order to rule whether or not people won or lost money. They should use the date in which Bitcoins got sold, date which should also be shared with the administration of Strategy themselves.

Also, the fact that person was willing to risk such huge amount of money in such specific market against one of the most bullish entities within Bitcoin ecosystem makes me wonder if that person had privileged information on the coming movements of Microstrategy themselves.

Just another reason to stay away from Polymarket and just to focus in markets which cannot be easily manipulated by a single person, I guess...

This is a case where the results of a prediction market can be interpreted differently. Based on what is stated on the website, the Polymarket team notes that "Confirmation achieved outside of the market's time frame does not qualify." However, due to the dispute, the final result of this prediction market remains unclear and is expected to be resolved in approximately 12 hours.

[Wind_FURY]

Another issue arose on X about Polymarket. Some guy on X (willo2_Poly) claims he's been scammed by this platform, around $500,000.
Apparently, he placed Yes on "MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin by May 31st", but Polymarket resolved it to No.

Based on MicroStrategy's 8-K filing, they indeed sold some BTC; the sales happened between May 26-31. [source].



I guess the problem here was that the confirmation was only announced by MicroStrategy on June 1st? And since it's past the deadline (May 31st), Polymarket resolved it to No (cmmiiw).

You can read the full thread on X on his post in the source link below.
Source: https://x.com/willo2_Poly/status/2061640812132516321

In my opinion, Polymarket should not use the date of confirmation in order to rule whether or not people won or lost money. They should use the date in which Bitcoins got sold, date which should also be shared with the administration of Strategy themselves.

Also, the fact that person was willing to risk such huge amount of money in such specific market against one of the most bullish entities within Bitcoin ecosystem makes me wonder if that person had privileged information on the coming movements of Microstrategy themselves.

Just another reason to stay away from Polymarket and just to focus in markets which cannot be easily manipulated by a single person, I guess...

This is a case where the results of a prediction market can be interpreted differently. Based on what is stated on the website, the Polymarket team notes that "Confirmation achieved outside of the market's time frame does not qualify." However, due to the dispute, the final result of this prediction market remains unclear and is expected to be resolved in approximately 12 hours.

If the terms could be interpreted differently, or if the rules could be changed, THEN that's definitely a flaw in the system, no? Why would any user put a large of money into those markets of such a service.

I truly hope that case becomes more public so that the service will FIX those FLAWS.

  👀

[iv4n]

I guess the problem here was that the confirmation was only announced by MicroStrategy on June 1st? And since it's past the deadline (May 31st), Polymarket resolved it to No (cmmiiw).

Another day, another situation with prediction markets... And the event seems clear, but the small letters say otherwise.

The disputed market attracted roughly $80 million in total trading volume.

This guy lost half a million, but those who bought NO shares won... so who held the largest "No" position? Something to think about...

If the terms could be interpreted differently, or if the rules could be changed, THEN that's definitely a flaw in the system, no? Why would any user put a large of money into those markets of such a service.

I truly hope that case becomes more public so that the service will FIX those FLAWS.

  👀

I am not sure there is a fix... They can make rules clearer and define exactly what counts and what doesn't count. That can help a bit and reduce how often these situations happen, but it's not possible to eliminate them. It comes with a "prediction market" world... welcome to a messy reality.

[julerz12]

If the terms could be interpreted differently, or if the rules could be changed, THEN that's definitely a flaw in the system, no? Why would any user put a large of money into those markets of such a service.

It's basically just gambling, and some people don't need any reason to put tons of money on their bets. 

I truly hope that case becomes more public so that the service will FIX those FLAWS.

  👀

Nah, I doubt that will even remotely happen. It's been a week since that fiasco, and Polymarket hasn't made any statements about it.
They probably would only care to comment if that guy and others who were on the boat with him take this to court, which I assume is what he is going to do.
BTW, it's been a year (June 2025) since X announced their partnership with Polymarket because they see this platform as "leading authority in accurately forecasting elections, global events, and cultural trends."
I wonder what those guys at X think of this recent issue, which ironically, also happens in June. What a great anniversary moment. 

[mikel_012]

BTW, it's been a year (June 2025) since X announced their partnership with Polymarket because they see this platform as "leading authority in accurately forecasting elections, global events, and cultural trends."
I wonder what those guys at X think of this recent issue, which ironically, also happens in June. What a great anniversary moment. 

They only care about money so they do not worry about having an accurate data for elections and global events.

If the terms could be interpreted differently, or if the rules could be changed, THEN that's definitely a flaw in the system, no? Why would any user put a large of money into those markets of such a service.

I truly hope that case becomes more public so that the service will FIX those FLAWS.

  👀

They changed the terms after the user put $500k yes shares, and the market was open for a long time after the time they announced it would not be valid anymore. So why keep it open?

The only solution would be for polymarket to refund everyone with the correct earnings because microstrategy sold. And make the rules more clear for future markets

[Wind_FURY]

If the terms could be interpreted differently, or if the rules could be changed, THEN that's definitely a flaw in the system, no? Why would any user put a large of money into those markets of such a service.

It's basically just gambling, and some people don't need any reason to put tons of money on their bets. 

I truly hope that case becomes more public so that the service will FIX those FLAWS.

  👀

Nah, I doubt that will even remotely happen. It's been a week since that fiasco, and Polymarket hasn't made any statements about it.
They probably would only care to comment if that guy and others who were on the boat with him take this to court, which I assume is what he is going to do.
BTW, it's been a year (June 2025) since X announced their partnership with Polymarket because they see this platform as "leading authority in accurately forecasting elections, global events, and cultural trends."
I wonder what those guys at X think of this recent issue, which ironically, also happens in June. What a great anniversary moment. 

About "accuracy", the claims that prediction markets could be debated that it's more accurate because the informed people who truly have an edge on those markets would only trade them and move the values to the right "price"/probability.

Although, it will never be 100% accurate in those sorts of markets. What the actual issue is those rule changes when it's time to close the market.

[o48o]

-cut-
I will not be surprised... anything is possible. The question is, do you think it will happen overnight or will it be a slow decline?

How would it decline exactly when popularity of it keeps growing?

Overnight is easy to imagine, but i don't think it will be happening by surprise if it's not shut down because of FBI's criminal investigation. If that happened, you would likely get your money back somehow later on.

I see a possibility that suddenly they wouldn't accept new bets, and probably all the bet contracts could be frozen, or money given back to their bettors instantly before legal issues are resolved. If that revenue is confiscated, then everyone who wants their money would likely need to reveal their id to apply for refunds.

[iv4n]

-cut-
I will not be surprised... anything is possible. The question is, do you think it will happen overnight or will it be a slow decline?

How would it decline exactly when popularity of it keeps growing?

Yes, I know Polymarket's popularity keeps growing, and I didn't make a bold statement about the end of it...

My question was for Get-Paid.com... but you answered that question with another question...

I don't know what will happen (and how would I?)... but whatever happens, I will not be surprised. It's hard to surprise me these days...

-cut-
I will not be surprised... anything is possible. The question is, do you think it will happen overnight or will it be a slow decline?

Overnight is easy to imagine, but i don't think it will be happening by surprise if it's not shut down because of FBI's criminal investigation. If that happened, you would likely get your money back somehow later on.

I see a possibility that suddenly they wouldn't accept new bets, and probably all the bet contracts could be frozen, or money given back to their bettors instantly before legal issues are resolved. If that revenue is confiscated, then everyone who wants their money would likely need to reveal their id to apply for refunds.

I didn't start anything, I tried to understand...

Just a few posts back:

This PolyMarket thing is a disaster waiting to happen...

We've been in this thing before with e-gold, LibertyReserve ... Polymarket is registered/operating from the US .... maybe the Trump administration might give it a pass (maybe not), what's for sure - it's a disaster waiting to happen.

Don't be surprised if 1-3 week(s)/month(s)/year(s) from now PolyMarket.com will have a one page showing "This website has ceased operations".