Polymarket.com - Bets on any events (politics, sports, crypto markets, and more)

[Questat]

I heard people who bet on a Venezuela invasion were refused because an aircraft carrier, planes, helicopters and troops on the ground engaging with lethal force a countries leadership does not qualify as invasion under their fairly unique thinking. 

Could you provide a source for that? I wasn’t aware there was a condition like that.

Either way though, even if they don’t get paid, I’m sure they’re still celebrating. A lot of people have been wanting to replace a corrupt leader for a long time now, even if that part isn’t really related. What really matters here is seeing whether the bets are being graded correctly or not.

[Cryptomultiplier]

There are some news circulating about some wallets who interacted on Polymarket and pocketed thousands of dollars with the accurate prediction of the dictator Nicolas Maduro.

https://es.finance.yahoo.com/noticias/insiders-polymarket-ganan-630-000-173500465.html

Allegedly, wallets which had not precious history suddenly betted on the capture of Maduro, just days before the news about his arrest went public.

It seems some politicians or people close to Trump decided to use privileged information in order to get some money out the betting market.

What do you guys think? It seems a very grey legal zone for those close to Trump and those military men involved to get into, though, I doubt there would be some accountability, since Polymarket is pretty much anonymous.

Polymarket is indeed anonymous or decentralized, but somehow we can also say it's centralized based on curation, even with its bridging and swap protocols, and it acting as a market operator with the use of smart contracts and with the ability to define the question and resolution criteria, unlike sports betting with bookmakers deciding the odds, I still haven't found the courage to test my chances there, so there's little I must say and only wait till am ready to try.

It's an interesting market I must concur, mostly since I got a lot more interested in it following Trump's election, other events leading to Anthony Joshua's fight vs Jake Paul and the Maduro recent arrest by the U.S. some folks must be really cashing out big I must say.

[UmerIdrees]

If you're gambling you're using it wrong. It is more like a trading platform such as Binance than a casino, unless you treat it like one.

Learn how limit orders work, probabilities and avoid markets that get rug-pulled frequently - yeah sounds like a trading platform to me.

This distinction is quite blurry IMO. I would argue if you are a intra day/short term trader (90% of the traders), no matter how technically sound you seems to be, you are gambling against the house at random noise.   

See that is what I'm trying to say - there is no house. Polymarket doesn't have a house (unless you count all those insiders as one but I prefer to view them as independent traders). You're trading against other people across the screen. So a loss/gain you make will definitely affect someone else trading the other side.

Even the markets themselves are built with Yes/No probabilities almost mirrored.

I think it's better to say that Polymarket is more like a betting platform and there is no house in betting. Correct? Yeah, for many of the bets at Polymarket, one needs to study the political and economic conditions of the world before being able to bet on the right side and win. It's not that simple.

However, trading is an entirely different thing where you perform technical and fundamental analysis on a coin and then take the trade. You can DCA, use stoplosses and a lot of other things that you cannot do in Polymarket and I don't think it resembles a trading market  

[Russlenat]

I think it's better to say that Polymarket is more like a betting platform and there is no house in betting. Correct? Yeah, for many of the bets at Polymarket, one needs to study the political and economic conditions of the world before being able to bet on the right side and win. It's not that simple.

There’s no house edge here like a typical casino game. The “edge” is more from the odds setup and the vig, basically sportsbook style, that’s how they guarantee profit.

But the difference is this one is P2P. It’s not like a regular sportsbook where odds are coming from an odds provider and you just take what’s offered. Here, we’re the ones influencing the odds movement, since it’s the market participants setting and shifting the prices.

[Haunebu]

They might be a massive player, market for bets but they also resemble the wild west and not bothering to have any official thread here further confirms that.  Caveat emptor

This is common stuff sadly in Polymarket. It is a decentralized free for all platform where crap like this screws over legit gamblers all the time. If you stick to sports over there, you will usually be fine since most sports events have simple, binary outcomes.

On the other hand, if you bet on prediction markets a lot, you are bound to get screwed sooner or later due to a multitude of factors involved.

[Odusko]

I want to know if they have ran any marketing here on the forum?
If NO, then to me I will assume talking about them is a kind of giving them some sorts of exposure and popularity over here.
Anyway there is still nothing wrong to talk about them, especially when there seems to be finding clarity over their operations.

I had exactly same thought when I first come across this thread, and worst is the way the op made the subject or topic of the thread look like it's an official announcement thread of the platform, I had the impression that polymarket finally found their way into bitcointalk forum, not until I opened the thread and I realized it's just a user making enquiries about the platform.

It's not bad for forum users to make enquiries concerning any platform on this forum, whether or not the platform has a presence on this forum, but we should learn to do it In a manner we don't end up giving the platform a free and unpaid advertising, I understand polymarket is also a big and popular platform, but I believe there's some where they spend to market their service, that somewhere could he here.

There is a big difference between talking about a service on a thread and having an ANN thread the exposures are different and varies alot from each other, although what may have motivated the creation of this thread is how poly market and other predictions market have gained popularity lately and this can be seen in how their have increased theirs boundaries in terms of events listings and the rest of them, for that we see this thread as necessary just for discussions and clarity.

[SmartGold01]

I want to know if they have ran any marketing here on the forum?
If NO, then to me I will assume talking about them is a kind of giving them some sorts of exposure and popularity over here.
Anyway there is still nothing wrong to talk about them, especially when there seems to be finding clarity over their operations.

I had exactly same thought when I first come across this thread, and worst is the way the op made the subject or topic of the thread look like it's an official announcement thread of the platform, I had the impression that polymarket finally found their way into bitcointalk forum, not until I opened the thread and I realized it's just a user making enquiries about the platform.

It's not bad for forum users to make enquiries concerning any platform on this forum, whether or not the platform has a presence on this forum, but we should learn to do it In a manner we don't end up giving the platform a free and unpaid advertising, I understand polymarket is also a big and popular platform, but I believe there's some where they spend to market their service, that somewhere could he here.

There is a big difference between talking about a service on a thread and having an ANN thread the exposures are different and varies alot from each other, although what may have motivated the creation of this thread is how poly market and other predictions market have gained popularity lately and this can be seen in how their have increased theirs boundaries in terms of events listings and the rest of them, for that we see this thread as necessary just for discussions and clarity.

That is true though, but to me I think there should be sets of limitation to how we talks about them over here, or maybe, when OP might have gotten the necessary feedback he needed from the community then it would be Ideal he locked the thread to avoid further engagement and exposure on this forum. Maybe, whenever they have decided to come here to run a promotional campaign then we can start talking about them or doing deep in discussing things that relates to them over here. No much feelings attached here..

[Finestream]

On the other hand, if you bet on prediction markets a lot, you are bound to get screwed sooner or later due to a multitude of factors involved.

But why is prediction market still popular though?
If I’m not mistaken, Polymarket is already a billion-dollar business and it can take millions of dollars worth of bets.

So even if some people don’t find it convenient or fun, clearly there are still a lot of users who keep patronizing it.

[Botnake]

But the difference is this one is P2P. It’s not like a regular sportsbook where odds are coming from an odds provider and you just take what’s offered. Here, we’re the ones influencing the odds movement, since it’s the market participants setting and shifting the prices.

That’s correct. It’s not the usual kind of market we see in sportsbooks. But I think the reason people still use prediction markets is simple, a lot of the events they want to bet on aren’t even listed on regular sportsbooks.

So in a way, prediction markets and sportsbooks can coexist. They’re not always direct competitors because they cover different stuff. You also won’t get the exact same experience on both since they follow different rules and regulators.

As for Polymarket, I’m not sure about their licensing situation. I’ve also seen people say they’re not allowed in the US, so that might be part of why it operates differently.

[Haunebu]

But why is prediction market still popular though?
If I’m not mistaken, Polymarket is already a billion-dollar business and it can take millions of dollars worth of bets.

So even if some people don’t find it convenient or fun, clearly there are still a lot of users who keep patronizing it.

The thing with prediction markets is that they can actually turn you into a millionaire overnight with way lower luck requirement when compared to sports betting, lotteries, casino games etc. For example, an insider recently earned big through the TIME person of year market.

However, this is a high risk, high reward game. Legit results for some of these markets sometimes get overturned and support won't help.