Polymarket.com - Bets on any events (politics, sports, crypto markets, and more)

[internetional]

1. Who receives the bitcoins and other assets that we deposit?

Polymarket itself. I'm reading it is received by a custodial service, so it's custody partners integrated into Polymarket's frontend.

Yeah, how it can be otherwise if that is not an on-chain smart contract, which it is clearly not.

I asked an LLM, and it says that the recipient is the payment provider Relay: https://docs.relay.link/features/deposit-addresses

I remember that this kind of setup was common among scammers posing as forex brokers. To fund your balance with such a "broker", you had to send money to an intermediary. The intermediary's only function was to credit numbers to your balance with the "broker". It had no other obligations and bore no responsibility whatsoever. In particular, these intermediaries were not required to return your money later.

At first glance, this looks very similar. I send bitcoins to Polymarket. Polymarket does not receive them. They are received by an intermediary - the operator of a one-way bridge. (After all, the bridge does not work in the opposite direction!) Everything looks very murky. It would be much more honest if the bitcoins remained at the bridge address and could later be withdrawn from there by redeeming winnings.

However, I was never able to get LLM to provide links to authoritative sources confirming that Relay is the actual recipient. So I accept that the LLM might be mistaken. Do you have any confirmation that the bitcoins sent to the deposit are received by Polymarket itself?

[NotATether]

I wonder if we are going to see Polymarket signature campaign on this forum?  Just kidding I don't think they care much about Bitcointalk.

betting platforms like Polymarket can be tricky as heck.

on one hand, they offer a unique way to engage with events and markets, but on the other, they can attract all sorts of shady behavior. people love to gamble, and the crypto space is already filled with enough scams and speculative nonsense. it's like adding fuel to the fire when you mix betting with crypto. i just wonder how long before the regulators come knocking, trying to rein in the chaos.

If you're gambling you're using it wrong. It is more like a trading platform such as Binance than a casino, unless you treat it like one.

Learn how limit orders work, probabilities and avoid markets that get rug-pulled frequently - yeah sounds like a trading platform to me.

[memehunter]

I wonder if we are going to see Polymarket signature campaign on this forum?  Just kidding I don't think they care much about Bitcointalk.

I dont think anyone ever reached out to them with a proposal  . Who knows your hindsight might be right.

If you're gambling you're using it wrong. It is more like a trading platform such as Binance than a casino, unless you treat it like one.

Learn how limit orders work, probabilities and avoid markets that get rug-pulled frequently - yeah sounds like a trading platform to me.

This distinction is quite blurry IMO. I would argue if you are a intra day/short term trader (90% of the traders), no matter how technically sound you seems to be, you are gambling against the house at random noise.   

[NotATether]

If you're gambling you're using it wrong. It is more like a trading platform such as Binance than a casino, unless you treat it like one.

Learn how limit orders work, probabilities and avoid markets that get rug-pulled frequently - yeah sounds like a trading platform to me.

This distinction is quite blurry IMO. I would argue if you are a intra day/short term trader (90% of the traders), no matter how technically sound you seems to be, you are gambling against the house at random noise.   

See that is what I'm trying to say - there is no house. Polymarket doesn't have a house (unless you count all those insiders as one but I prefer to view them as independent traders). You're trading against other people across the screen. So a loss/gain you make will definitely affect someone else trading the other side.

Even the markets themselves are built with Yes/No probabilities almost mirrored.

[memehunter]

If you're gambling you're using it wrong. It is more like a trading platform such as Binance than a casino, unless you treat it like one.

Learn how limit orders work, probabilities and avoid markets that get rug-pulled frequently - yeah sounds like a trading platform to me.

This distinction is quite blurry IMO. I would argue if you are a intra day/short term trader (90% of the traders), no matter how technically sound you seems to be, you are gambling against the house at random noise.   

See that is what I'm trying to say - there is no house. Polymarket doesn't have a house (unless you count all those insiders as one but I prefer to view them as independent traders). You're trading against other people across the screen. So a loss/gain you make will definitely affect someone else trading the other side.

Even the markets themselves are built with Yes/No probabilities almost mirrored.

Still the negative expected value will come from the fees which will be charged by the platform (like Binance/Polymarket) + network tx fees. This will exactly work like a negative expected value we have on casinos. In order to gamble you do not necessarily bet against the house. The only difference would be like,  - EV is low compared to at least 1%.

 

[Hispo]

There are some news circulating about some wallets who interacted on Polymarket and pocketed thousands of dollars with the accurate prediction of the dictator Nicolas Maduro.

https://es.finance.yahoo.com/noticias/insiders-polymarket-ganan-630-000-173500465.html

Allegedly, wallets which had not precious history suddenly betted on the capture of Maduro, just days before the news about his arrest went public.

It seems some politicians or people close to Trump decided to use privileged information in order to get some money out the betting market.

What do you guys think? It seems a very grey legal zone for those close to Trump and those military men involved to get into, though, I doubt there would be some accountability, since Polymarket is pretty much anonymous.

[Akbarkoe]

There are some news circulating about some wallets who interacted on Polymarket and pocketed thousands of dollars with the accurate prediction of the dictator Nicolas Maduro.

https://es.finance.yahoo.com/noticias/insiders-polymarket-ganan-630-000-173500465.html

Allegedly, wallets which had not precious history suddenly betted on the capture of Maduro, just days before the news about his arrest went public.

It seems some politicians or people close to Trump decided to use privileged information in order to get some money out the betting market.

What do you guys think? It seems a very grey legal zone for those close to Trump and those military men involved to get into, though, I doubt there would be some accountability, since Polymarket is pretty much anonymous.

This is quite a dangerous space, we can say that they are insiders of any political or policy decisions related to bets made in the polymarket, for those who have access to information closer to the leaders of an institution it will definitely be easy for them to benefit in markets like this, I really like the concept of polymarkets but they can be very cruel and become a hotbed of government insiders.

[Hispo]

There are some news circulating about some wallets who interacted on Polymarket and pocketed thousands of dollars with the accurate prediction of the dictator Nicolas Maduro.

https://es.finance.yahoo.com/noticias/insiders-polymarket-ganan-630-000-173500465.html

Allegedly, wallets which had not precious history suddenly betted on the capture of Maduro, just days before the news about his arrest went public.

It seems some politicians or people close to Trump decided to use privileged information in order to get some money out the betting market.

What do you guys think? It seems a very grey legal zone for those close to Trump and those military men involved to get into, though, I doubt there would be some accountability, since Polymarket is pretty much anonymous.

This is quite a dangerous space, we can say that they are insiders of any political or policy decisions related to bets made in the polymarket, for those who have access to information closer to the leaders of an institution it will definitely be easy for them to benefit in markets like this, I really like the concept of polymarkets but they can be very cruel and become a hotbed of government insiders.

It becomes specially dangerous because in situations like these ones, those who take advantage of their position in the government are also protected and they cannot be easily prosecuted for inside betting. Even if the stablecoins could be tracked back to some centralized exchange in which the KYC information of the person is stored, the insider is likely to have powerful people and influence around so they would help the person not to get prosecuted and arrested for commiting a crime.

If there is something to learn here, it is how easier it is to profit from privileged information thanks to platforms which do not collect KYC information of bettors

[Akbarkoe]

There are some news circulating about some wallets who interacted on Polymarket and pocketed thousands of dollars with the accurate prediction of the dictator Nicolas Maduro.

https://es.finance.yahoo.com/noticias/insiders-polymarket-ganan-630-000-173500465.html

Allegedly, wallets which had not precious history suddenly betted on the capture of Maduro, just days before the news about his arrest went public.

It seems some politicians or people close to Trump decided to use privileged information in order to get some money out the betting market.

What do you guys think? It seems a very grey legal zone for those close to Trump and those military men involved to get into, though, I doubt there would be some accountability, since Polymarket is pretty much anonymous.

This is quite a dangerous space, we can say that they are insiders of any political or policy decisions related to bets made in the polymarket, for those who have access to information closer to the leaders of an institution it will definitely be easy for them to benefit in markets like this, I really like the concept of polymarkets but they can be very cruel and become a hotbed of government insiders.

It becomes specially dangerous because in situations like these ones, those who take advantage of their position in the government are also protected and they cannot be easily prosecuted for inside betting. Even if the stablecoins could be tracked back to some centralized exchange in which the KYC information of the person is stored, the insider is likely to have powerful people and influence around so they would help the person not to get prosecuted and arrested for commiting a crime.

If there is something to learn here, it is how easier it is to profit from privileged information thanks to platforms which do not collect KYC information of bettors

It looks like we will see regulatory updates regarding polymarkets in the future because polymarkets are becoming more and more popular and the situation we are talking about is indeed dangerous, I hope there will be further regulation, considering the risks and fair betting, because if someone who has that special information bets with a general bettor and the results are based on his analysis alone with his own calculations, it is clear that this is an unfair bet to bet with someone who got a hint of the correct answer.

This is like a quiz competition and your opponent is given the answer key while you have to think hard with the existing data.

[Unsoldier]

There are some news circulating about some wallets who interacted on Polymarket and pocketed thousands of dollars with the accurate prediction of the dictator Nicolas Maduro.

https://es.finance.yahoo.com/noticias/insiders-polymarket-ganan-630-000-173500465.html

Allegedly, wallets which had not precious history suddenly betted on the capture of Maduro, just days before the news about his arrest went public.

It seems some politicians or people close to Trump decided to use privileged information in order to get some money out the betting market.

What do you guys think? It seems a very grey legal zone for those close to Trump and those military men involved to get into, though, I doubt there would be some accountability, since Polymarket is pretty much anonymous.

This is quite a dangerous space, we can say that they are insiders of any political or policy decisions related to bets made in the polymarket, for those who have access to information closer to the leaders of an institution it will definitely be easy for them to benefit in markets like this, I really like the concept of polymarkets but they can be very cruel and become a hotbed of government insiders.

This really shows the weak spot of prediction markets like Polymarket. When people close to political or military decisions have access to non-public information, it becomes very easy to exploit such markets. The biggest issue is anonymity: even if insider trading is suspected, it’s extremely hard to prove who was behind those wallets, so real accountability is unlikely.

[Kasabus]

This really shows the weak spot of prediction markets like Polymarket. When people close to political or military decisions have access to non-public information, it becomes very easy to exploit such markets. The biggest issue is anonymity: even if insider trading is suspected, it’s extremely hard to prove who was behind those wallets, so real accountability is unlikely.

Being aware of that, if we’re not comfortable taking the risk then it’s better to just stay away from betting on that market.

Honestly, I only really knew about Polymarket because of the US election betting.

That’s the kind of event where I’d be willing to risk my money since it’s huge, the whole world is watching, and there’s so much information available. It’s hard to manipulate something like that, and I can see why it easily attracts millions in bets.

[SmartGold01]

I want to know if they have ran any marketing here on the forum?

I’ve been here for 10 years and I honestly can’t remember them ever running a promotion here.
Maybe they don’t see the members here as their target market, but even so, here we are still talking about them.

If NO, then to me I will assume talking about them is a kind of giving them some sorts of exposure and popularity over here.
Anyway there is still nothing wrong to talk about them, especially when there seems to be finding clarity over their operations.

There were already topics about Polymarket before, and the last one I remember was about the breach, and according to them it wasn’t their fault but a third party app issue.
I think they are already very popular.

Of course they would be that popular since it seems to be the first predictions market, if not the second or third there about.
They are really gaining traction over here as more people keeps talking about them, this would give them exposure, so to me it would be that good to reduce how we keep promoting them here. And if course there is nothing wrong by talking about them but there should be a sets of limitations. Most times I do use local casino to gamble but I do not like mentioning it here because it could seems to be a free promotion to them. Please you people shouldn't quote me wrongly, anyone can talk about them the way they want but I am just trying to reduce the free marketing of any thing.

[Haunebu]

If there is something to learn here, it is how easier it is to profit from privileged information thanks to platforms which do not collect KYC information of bettors

This is sadly common crap on sites like Polymarket which is why it's a risky environment basically if you are betting on prediction markets. There was another controversial one recently regarding 'Times person of the year' or something where an insider earned big money.

Stick to sports bets and you will be fine in my opinion.

[internetional]

This is quite a dangerous space, we can say that they are insiders of any political or policy decisions related to bets made in the polymarket, for those who have access to information closer to the leaders of an institution it will definitely be easy for them to benefit in markets like this, I really like the concept of polymarkets but they can be very cruel and become a hotbed of government insiders.

This really shows the weak spot of prediction markets like Polymarket. When people close to political or military decisions have access to non-public information, it becomes very easy to exploit such markets. The biggest issue is anonymity: even if insider trading is suspected, it’s extremely hard to prove who was behind those wallets, so real accountability is unlikely.

Using an official position to basically take money from other Polymarket users doesn't sound like a great idea to me. With blockchain, it's possible to trace where the winnings end up. Even if an insider takes every measure to cover their tracks today, they can't be sure that future technology won't be able to untangle those schemes. Sure, people are probably doing this now - but that's mostly because they don't really understand how blockchain works.

[NotATether]

To take a break from all the insider trading conversation, is anybody using any trading strategies on this platform that they'd like to share?

[dwyane36]

To take a break from all the insider trading conversation, is anybody using any trading strategies on this platform that they'd like to share?

Well, in my opinion, early bets on the daily price prediction of BTC or any other assets can be profitable if you analyze the chart in advance using technical analysis, as well as paying attention to the news background and how it may affect the BTC price. Personally, I managed to win several bets this way, getting a decent multiplier.

[Haunebu]

To take a break from all the insider trading conversation, is anybody using any trading strategies on this platform that they'd like to share?

I would like to chime in. One of the best trading strategies on Polymarket is buying any sports market when it hasn't fully resolved yet for around 95 to 99 cents and automatically banking profit when the market eventually resolves later at a dollar.

It's not at all easy competing against the bots to successfully buy these shares for those prices and the profit margin is usually extremely low. Slightly risky too considering very late goals, VAR etc.

[NotATether]

I would like to chime in. One of the best trading strategies on Polymarket is buying any sports market when it hasn't fully resolved yet for around 95 to 99 cents and automatically banking profit when the market eventually resolves later at a dollar.

I have done this too, to some extent, and made some money off of that. I'm not sure if there's bots in these markets (in the smaller ones, definitely not) but the larger ones with $100m+ volume have so much liquidity because market makers place huge limit buys at 16c and sell at 18c, for example.

[stadus]

They really want to go big and compete properly in the market.

News like this just shows how serious they are about it.

Polymarket Joins Forces with MSG Sports, Becomes

New York Rangers Partner[/url]

Polymarket Joins the Rangers Family
Madison Square Garden Sports Corp., which owns the NHL’s New York Rangers, announced that it has named Polymarket as the team’s official prediction market partner. In this position, the event contracts platform will be featured extensively throughout the club’s games at its home stadium, Madison Square Garden. Polymarket’s logo will appear across the arena’s LED signage, on-ice contests, concourse activations and digitally-enhanced dasherboard signage during local and nationally broadcast Rangers games, the announcement stated.

~~~~~

[STT]

I heard people who bet on a Venezuela invasion were refused because an aircraft carrier, planes, helicopters and troops on the ground engaging with lethal force a countries leadership does not qualify as invasion under their fairly unique thinking.   It wasnt a teddy bears picnic thats for sure whether you were in favor or not, most nations would class it as an invasion; clearly terms need some 3rd party oversight.
  Possibly they are confusing occupation but who knows what they might decide on the outcome of a bet depending on what is most profitable.

   They might be a massive player, market for bets but they also resemble the wild west and not bothering to have any official thread here further confirms that.  Caveat emptor