higher lows!

[sleepfirefly]

this post on X made me realize that there is a pattern we can observe

2010: Bitcoin crashes to $0.1

2011: Bitcoin crashes to $1

2013: Bitcoin crashes to $50

2015: Bitcoin crashes to $200

2018: Bitcoin crashes to $3,000

2021: Bitcoin crashes to $30,000

2025: Bitcoin crashes to $80,000

after every few years, the standard of what crashing looks like for bitcoin reaches higher and higher it’s safe to assume that in 2028 bitcoin’s going to crash higher than $80,000

the point is that as time goes on, the volatility lessens and there’s less chance of you getting anxious because of how big the market has dropped but the negative side to this is that you can’t buy bitcoin any cheaper than it is today so buy it now when you can because this is probably the cheapest you’ll see it

[Darker45]

And in each of those crashes a weak man's doubt is confirmed. Every time Bitcoin falls down, somebody tells another, "I told you!" And another proclaims, "Bitcoin is dead!" Such is the reason why Bitcoin has already accumulated countless of obituaries and tombstones.

Unfortunately, lessons will never be learned. Bitcoin will one day correct from $1,000,000 to $700,000 and the same confident comments that it's dying or that it's not a good asset to invest in will be heard.

[flapduck]

"So buy now because this is probably the cheapest you'll see!!!"

People said that at $6k in 2018. Then it wasn't. People said that at $30k in 2021. Then it wasn't. "Higher lows over years" can be broadly true while still letting you eat a face-melting drawdown on the way there, especially if the top gets overheated and leverage piles in.

A higher low at, say, 80k can still mean a 60-70% haircut from some crazy peak, and that's where most people discover they weren't actually as patient as they thought.

[nakamura12]

"So buy now because this is probably the cheapest you'll see!!!"

People said that at $6k in 2018. Then it wasn't. People said that at $30k in 2021. Then it wasn't. "Higher lows over years" can be broadly true while still letting you eat a face-melting drawdown on the way there, especially if the top gets overheated and leverage piles in.

A higher low at, say, 80k can still mean a 60-70% haircut from some crazy peak, and that's where most people discover they weren't actually as patient as they thought.

now may be the cheapest people will see but there will always be a time where it isn't the cheapest even for a moment before going back to the current price or even increase in price. Just like in 2018 where many didn't expect that the price isn't what many people expected. I agree with you that many did said the same thing during those years and there are also people who also said that it will crash or become bear market and yet they are proved wrong. As darker45 said that a weak man's doubt is confirmed which I definitely agree.

[Patikno]

Actually, many people are aware that Bitcoin is falling and feel the current price is relatively cheap. However, the problem is that not everyone can afford to buy Bitcoin for various reasons. Personally, I would like to buy more Bitcoin right now, but I can't due to financial constraints. It is a different story for people who don't understand Bitcoin fundamentally; they will assume it is doomed, but if they look at Bitcoin historical price growth from the beginning, they will realize it has significant potential to rise even further. I think they should also consider the many people who regret selling early, or the many stories of people who regret not buying Bitcoin years ago.

[Finestream]

And in each of those crashes a weak man's doubt is confirmed. Every time Bitcoin falls down, somebody tells another, "I told you!" And another proclaims, "Bitcoin is dead!" Such is the reason why Bitcoin has already accumulated countless of obituaries and tombstones.

Unfortunately, lessons will never be learned. Bitcoin will one day correct from $1,000,000 to $700,000 and the same confident comments that it's dying or that it's not a good asset to invest in will be heard.

This proves that no matter how high its new ATH, once bitcoin crash its price, people will always say negative comments about bitcoin. And this is already a repetitive pattern, this only shows that negative people will always say bad comments for bitcoin.

I think this is not already how high the potentials of bitcoin may be, but how high its volatility every time. Bitcoin pumps, the next day it dumps, and people will assure that they will leave devastating words for bitcoin. But the real bitcoin optimists will not care either.

[Sammye3]

With this analysis, it is safe to say that Bitcoin could see a new high between the space of 2-4 years from now which is still speculative and then experience a fall back higher than $80k. This is a good analogy that many people would probably ignore and scroll through without taking action. There is every possibility that Bitcoin could see a high as $1m in the future though it could take time but there would come a time where digital currency would take over the world.

We have seen how AI technology is being integrated globally and has changed the system of things, that would same way Bitcoin would be globally appreciated and used for transactional and exchange purposes. We could only watçh out Bitcoin's new bull run ATH and see what would become of investors and those who neglected the opportunity to invest.

[ColdLava40]

the point is that as time goes on, the volatility lessens and there’s less chance of you getting anxious because of how big the market has dropped but the negative side to this is that you can’t buy bitcoin any cheaper than it is today so buy it now when you can because this is probably the cheapest you’ll see it

The volatility doesn't reduce though, bitcoin just continues to out grow some price levels and may not be returning to them ever again.just like gold which at a certain point in time was sold for $100,$1000 per ounce, but look at it today, it's not going back down because it has become much more valuable.

That's what bitcoin is going through right now. It's a stage that it might never return to and ones all the 21 million coins is finally mined,it would be even more valuable due to scarcity.

For those still waiting for governments validation before they purchase bitcoin, they should keep waiting. Soon their kids will ask them right in the face why they missed out on a life time opportunity to grow generational wealth.

[NeuroticFish]

post on X made me realize

I think that it's healthier to observe patterns on the all-time price chart for Bitcoin, not in posts on X.

And I think that even the "history is repeating itself" may need to be taken with a grain of salt, since far too many are claiming that MSTR & Co may break the known pattern. (Of course, I've also heard far too many times the "this time it's different" claim).

While the trend is overall still nicely upwards, I'd look for the lows per 4-year cycle. And while imho waiting for new lows before investing is counterproductive (you have very high chance to miss the low), the proven way to make it work for you is still the good old DCA.

[logfiles]

It should also make you realize that Bitcoin is probably one of the best performing assets or digital assets in the last 15 or so years and that buying and keeping your stash long term is the overall winner without any big hassle.
When I got to know about bitcoin in the 2016-2017 period, i actually thought that it was too late to own Bitcoin at a good price and several years later, the price back then was just too cheap for BTC as compared to the current price

[BitMaxz]

This is not the exact data if you are pointing to every price dip. I don't know where you get this data, but if you are looking for historical data that includes the price when the price crashed, this link below will help you for the exact data.

- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin

Actually we might not see the below $100k again after the 2028 cycle. Reading the historical data would tell you much that every cycle the price increases two more times.

[SeriouslyGiveaway]

this post on X made me realize that there is a pattern we can observe

2010: Bitcoin crashes to $0.1

2011: Bitcoin crashes to $1

2013: Bitcoin crashes to $50

2015: Bitcoin crashes to $200

2018: Bitcoin crashes to $3,000

2021: Bitcoin crashes to $30,000

2025: Bitcoin crashes to $80,000

after every few years, the standard of what crashing looks like for bitcoin reaches higher and higher it’s safe to assume that in 2028 bitcoin’s going to crash higher than $80,000

the point is that as time goes on, the volatility lessens and there’s less chance of you getting anxious because of how big the market has dropped but the negative side to this is that you can’t buy bitcoin any cheaper than it is today so buy it now when you can because this is probably the cheapest you’ll see it

Two charts that represent Bitcoin yearly candles and Bitcoin yearly lows are enough to support your topic.
https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/bitcoin-yearly-lows/
https://charts.bitbo.io/yearly-candles/

Bitcoin shows its very impressive growths over time with both charts and if it is hard to see Bitcoin yearly lows with Bitcoin yearly candle chart, the Bitcoin yearly lows chart can directly give it for you. Higher lows each year show that even with worst times in different years, Bitcoin still shows its strong growth.

[pooya87]

the point is that as time goes on, the volatility lessens and there’s less chance of you getting anxious because of how big the market has dropped but the negative side to this is that you can’t buy bitcoin any cheaper than it is today so buy it now when you can because this is probably the cheapest you’ll see it

We see that all the time. When price goes up, there are a lot of people who say "it is too expensive, we would have bought if it were lower" then sometimes price does come down and yet the same people won't buy because by then they are saying "it is crashing and will go lower".

In any case, price is rising due to increasing adoption and the finite number of coins that are available for purchase (the capped supply - the supply already bought and in cold storage). Therefore in the long run we will always see a higher price even if the charts look "chaotic" in short run with their wild ups and downs.

[JeffBrad12]

"So buy now because this is probably the cheapest you'll see!!!"

People said that at $6k in 2018. Then it wasn't. People said that at $30k in 2021. Then it wasn't. "Higher lows over years" can be broadly true while still letting you eat a face-melting drawdown on the way there, especially if the top gets overheated and leverage piles in.

A higher low at, say, 80k can still mean a 60-70% haircut from some crazy peak, and that's where most people discover they weren't actually as patient as they thought.

That's why you should be patient and not too much in haste, you can literally buy slowly starting from what you think as higher low and if price keep dumping, just buy again in batches.
You can avoid haircut from peak while still mantaining your profitability if somehow market really make higher low at that price mark you predicted. Trading is battle of wits against the market and DCA is the sure way.

[hugeblack]

This X post selects random and precise times from history; they are not the same time every year, therefore it is pointless.
It can be useful for understanding the long-term trend, but it can be extremely misleading in the case of random altcoin.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

I expect that people should know that bitcoin will only continue to rise and increase in value as time passed by, this is what cannot be achieved under fiat system because of inflation, that is why we could have arrived this far even when it all started as nothing, bitcoin is truly a definition of an investment asset, because it will always proof being profitable over the cause of time, which is why many are so much interested in learning and using it for their financial independencies.

[suhadi88]

after every few years, the standard of what crashing looks like for bitcoin reaches higher and higher it’s safe to assume that in 2028 bitcoin’s going to crash higher than $80,000

I think it all depends on how high the market's pure demand is, especially if institutions are starting to be optimistic about investing back into this sector, while they may still be a little concerned about the volatility of the past few weeks.

For 2028, I think it's all going to take a process, and the movement won't be slow and steady all at once, but rather gradual but sustained.

[Alpha Marine]

And in each of those crashes a weak man's doubt is confirmed. Every time Bitcoin falls down, somebody tells another, "I told you!" And another proclaims, "Bitcoin is dead!" Such is the reason why Bitcoin has already accumulated countless of obituaries and tombstones.

The rate they say this is reducing, though. Previously, if Bitcoin dropped by 30%, we would have seen the multitudes of anti-Bitcoin soldiers coming out to say "I told you so" and whatever, but this time around, not many of them did. Bitcoin has slowly won over a lot of people. Of course, there will always be doubters and people who just want to oppose, but the rate has dropped a little. Speaking too soon has made a lot of them look stupid. Besides, it's difficult for them to say "bitcoin is dead" when it's at $80k.

People have now realised that Bitcoin is not mutually exclusive with traditional finance or investment. This is why we have seen big banks like JPMorgan thinking of ways to integrate Bitcoin into their services.

[HONDACD125]

Bitcoin actually crashed to $16k in 2021 and not $30k; it went to $30k after the crash, and then stayed there for quite some time before it started going up and went straight to $47k from there, that's when the market started going up. However, what you said is true despite the figures being wrong, because since the beginning, after every bull run and halving, the price of Bitcoin has always only crashed to a price point which was higher than its previous lowest low, and it will probably be the same case this time around because it's obviously not going to $16k in this bear market even if it goes below $80k.

Those investors who have been buying in the bear markets have always managed to become profitable in the bull run, and this is the reason why Bitcoin is so trusted and widely adopted as an investment option, because people see its history, and they realize that if they invest when the market is down, they will surely get some profits once the bull run arrives. Some altcoins have been doing the same thing, but as we all know, altcoins are not as trusted as Bitcoin because Bitcoin is the driver of the market.

[o48o]

this post on X made me realize that there is a pattern we can observe

2010: Bitcoin crashes to $0.1

2011: Bitcoin crashes to $1

2013: Bitcoin crashes to $50

2015: Bitcoin crashes to $200

2018: Bitcoin crashes to $3,000

2021: Bitcoin crashes to $30,000

2025: Bitcoin crashes to $80,000

after every few years, the standard of what crashing looks like for bitcoin reaches higher and higher it’s safe to assume that in 2028 bitcoin’s going to crash higher than $80,000

the point is that as time goes on, the volatility lessens and there’s less chance of you getting anxious because of how big the market has dropped but the negative side to this is that you can’t buy bitcoin any cheaper than it is today so buy it now when you can because this is probably the cheapest you’ll see it

If you believe that's possible to make predictions from past data, i wouldn't count anything before 2013, as it's too immature and volatile, because there wasn't enough liquidity.

Also, what mathematical model are you using to predict the next one? Because it doesn't make sense based on the past to me. Neither would any TA i can think of would support it if you believe that kind of predictions.