Luck or Inside Knowledge: User made $436,000 betting on Maduro's downfall.

[dunfida]

On Friday, 2nd January, the odds of Maduro's removal were 6.5%. Before midnight the odds had jumped to 11% and surged in the early hours of January 3rd. The sudden change happened just before Trump announced on Truth Social that Maduro was in US custody. A new Polymarket account that registered last year made more than $436,000 from a $32,537 bet.

There is suspicion that some top government officials had prior information about the attacks and captured the president. This is not new, as some people have also accused Trump's inner circle of benefiting from the tariff war. This sudden change in predictions has caught the attention of Congressman Ritchie Torres who introduced a bill on Monday that seeks to ban government employees from engaging in prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" that relates to the bet

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2gn93292do

Not surprising anymore and if we do speak about probabilities or possibilities then it could definitely happen as long those informations getting leaked then there's always that someone that will be taking up the advantage. Human beings are naturally greedy and if they are that able to see those opportunities that they can make big money then that would be something no doubt that taken advantage on. Therefore, its not that shocking news to see these headlines winning up these odds on which we can definitely say that it is that almost impossible. Although not all situations is fixed and since we do know that betting also needs luck then it might shower upon on a certain bettor, but in overall it cant be avoided that there would really be those suspicions in regarding about these winnings.

It would be just that right that there should be banning of all government official on making up some bets but just we do all know that even if they would be not allowing on how many degree in terms of relation but still it cant be stopped since information could be passed through easily and wouldnt be that so hard to cover.

[Gozie51]

Government officials should be banned not only from prediction markets but also trading if possible.

You are right because there is no way that someone could take such a huge risk even before such attack or its announcement. It is definitely an insider information like we see that in match fixing, we see that alot in forex news. And just like footballers are not allowed to gamble, some relatives of politicians should be ban from it and some level of their cronies. However, it is not quite easy because they can still expose such information to far and distant friends who will bet in proxy. The best is if there is an allegation of such then they should be investigated and if found guilty, the winning should not be paid and they should be penalized.

[Shinpako09]

Banning is the first step but it won't really change much but then I am wondering, if there was an information leak then why not bet even higher to the point of winning millions? Is there some kind of restriction on how much a person can bet or is it somehow related to how much there are earning, I mean you obviously can place a bet with an amount of money that's way out of your paycheck's range, so why didn't he bet more if there was a leak?

Simple, he doesn’t want to get too much attention that might result in an investigation. He stays in the middle, not too low, not too high, just the right amount. He uses his brain well and doesn’t become greedy. If we’re already suspicious of that amount, then what more if it’s millions? It doesn’t make sense to win a lot if it will turn things against you. If you have insider information, don’t make it too obvious if you want to enjoy your winnings. As simple as that.

[Die_empty]

Yes, if the government officials are banned from trading, gambling, prediction markets and others that the government officials can take advantage of to make money, the government officials will still be able to leak out information to their friends or closed ones to bet on and still get a share of the profits, but in cases like this, such person will be likely be investigated to know if there is insider information or not. There are some government officers that will think people will not know what happene, but sometimes the truth are revealed after investigation.

Leaking the information to relatives and friends would amount to a more severe criminal offense. Confidential or classified information shouldn't be shared with a third party could endanger the security or economy of the nation.

I think these officials who have access to such information should be banned from gambling or other predictions that will give them an undue advantage. Maybe we might get to know the truth after this administration.   

[justinlamode]

This is not luck or insider information, this is a common knowledge because the moment Trump ordered the bombing of ships suspected to be carrying drugs, I knew that he was committed to going into war in Venezuela. Trump does not say what he will not do and before he pronounce it, he has already set machinery in place to make actualize it. He talked about bombing Iran in 14 days but ended up bombing them in 48hrs, he talked about bombing Nigeria and people said it was not going to happen but it did happen, he bombed terrorists in Nigeria on Christmas eve and the world did not end. So, the case of Maduro was a free odd for players if prediction markets offered it.

[Doan9269]

On Friday, 2nd January, the odds of Maduro's removal were 6.5%. Before midnight the odds had jumped to 11% and surged in the early hours of January 3rd. The sudden change happened just before Trump announced on Truth Social that Maduro was in US custody. A new Polymarket account that registered last year made more than $436,000 from a $32,537 bet.

There is suspicion that some top government officials had prior information about the attacks and captured the president. This is not new, as some people have also accused Trump's inner circle of benefiting from the tariff war. This sudden change in predictions has caught the attention of Congressman Ritchie Torres who introduced a bill on Monday that seeks to ban government employees from engaging in prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" that relates to the bet

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2gn93292do

Here's my advice on this, we shouldn't go for polymarket gambling if we are not ready for the risk ahead thereof, some of the predictions seen are nothing than what could have been leaked information and which we may not know the true value on them, is it to take the risk and lose or not and miss out on the opportunity, they seems to be more of being unpredictable, considering the chances in playing them.

[TastyChillySauce00]

It most probably an exec from the oil company who bet secretly after being tipped off by trump before. However, it's also possible that bettor was also his family members. Almost all of parties who closed to Trump most probably that knew that information. So it should be anyone who closed to him.

[Rashlyowl]

That's a luck if the bet placed is between $1 - $500, $32,537 is not small amount for a non-sports bet, I've never even seen it. I suspect the bet involved an insider, already had information about what happened next & then the insider placed the bet. I'm not familiar with Polymarket & I'm surprised at the strange bets being made there. Are there any other strange bets? I'd love to hear from you.

[Frankolala]

Simple, he doesn’t want to get too much attention that might result in an investigation. He stays in the middle, not too low, not too high, just the right amount. He uses his brain well and doesn’t become greedy. If we’re already suspicious of that amount, then what more if it’s millions? It doesn’t make sense to win a lot if it will turn things against you. If you have insider information, don’t make it too obvious if you want to enjoy your winnings. As simple as that.

Humans are greedy. Since, he got the right information from an insider or as an insider, he will want to use the opportunity to make millions for himself without considering if it will raise eye brows or not. This is the same thing that happens to some gamblers when they hear that it's a sure bet, they increase their initial bet amount to x20.

[BABY SHOES]

Trump's cabinet has in many occasions been involved with insider activity with crypto. I wouldn't be surprised.

They know crypto and they know pokymarket. Pentagon plans are discussed months ahead. They claim this time they were waiting for the presidential ok on when to start. So certainly somebody knew.

Correction it's Polymaket not Pokymarket... Sorry hehe.

It would not be strange for Trump's cabinet to be involved in this as they are insiders who spread information to the closest people to do it including making predictive bets or determining short/long positions.

Trump's circle will definitely get a lot of information related to crypto... it's not even surprising that someone won a large amount in his prediction bet.

[rbynxx]

On Friday, 2nd January, the odds of Maduro's removal were 6.5%. Before midnight the odds had jumped to 11% and surged in the early hours of January 3rd. The sudden change happened just before Trump announced on Truth Social that Maduro was in US custody. A new Polymarket account that registered last year made more than $436,000 from a $32,537 bet.

There is suspicion that some top government officials had prior information about the attacks and captured the president. This is not new, as some people have also accused Trump's inner circle of benefiting from the tariff war. This sudden change in predictions has caught the attention of Congressman Ritchie Torres who introduced a bill on Monday that seeks to ban government employees from engaging in prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" that relates to the bet

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2gn93292do

Is that Baron Trump once again cashing out gains?

Well, it's still a wild west for prediction market and circumstances like this is probably a wake-up call. This is like sports betting and probably there are some players out there that is betting on themselves but it's being done by a close relative or someone they hire to bet for them. What if it was just a wild guess and that the bettor just feeling it?

[cryptoaddictchie]

On Friday, 2nd January, the odds of Maduro's removal were 6.5%. Before midnight the odds had jumped to 11% and surged in the early hours of January 3rd. The sudden change happened just before Trump announced on Truth Social that Maduro was in US custody. A new Polymarket account that registered last year made more than $436,000 from a $32,537 bet.

There is suspicion that some top government officials had prior information about the attacks and captured the president. This is not new, as some people have also accused Trump's inner circle of benefiting from the tariff war. This sudden change in predictions has caught the attention of Congressman Ritchie Torres who introduced a bill on Monday that seeks to ban government employees from engaging in prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" that relates to the bet

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2gn93292do

Possibly an inside job too. This highlights the biggest risk of prediction markets when insiders may be trading on nonpublic information, the market stops being a reflection of collective intelligence and starts looking like legalized insider trading, so regulation targeting government officials makes sense if these platforms want long term credibility.

[marcous]

It is worth suspecting, there is a possibility that the winner is an insider or has acquaintances from the Trump administration so that he gets information to be utilized in the prediction market, although there is no clear evidence for this but I am quite sure because it does not make sense to me personally especially when you mention that the account has made huge profits in less than 1 year.

[Ronsbit]

I would not be surprised if government officials are taking advantage of situations such as this as a result of insider information. I will ask this question: if you were the one who got wind of such information and you knew it would turn out to be so when all other officials are likely doing the same, would you feel too relaxed over such an opportunity? I believe you would do the needful to be on the safe side. So that was what likely happened, and there is nothing anybody can do about it.

[aioc]

This sudden change in predictions has caught the attention of Congressman Ritchie Torres who introduced a bill on Monday that seeks to ban government employees from engaging in prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" that relates to the bet

This is useless; they can still relay it to their friends and relatives who will make the bet. Because of this proof of winnings, expect the popularity of prediction platforms to boom.

There will be predictions involving luck, and others where inside knowledge will play its part. There's even a possibility that politicians will create a situation to gain an advantage in the prediction market; such a possibility is not remote.

[Findingnemo]

I am sure many people knew it before it is coming so obviously someone took the opportunity to make some money for them but it is hard to prove and may need further investigation to see if someone colluded the inside information for their benefit. Even though if it is not against their law to make such bet but it is illegal and punishable offence to use an information that is cosidered as top secret for their own benefit.

[KTChampions]

This is not luck or insider information, this is a common knowledge because the moment Trump ordered the bombing of ships suspected to be carrying drugs, I knew that he was committed to going into war in Venezuela. Trump does not say what he will not do and before he pronounce it, he has already set machinery in place to make actualize it. He talked about bombing Iran in 14 days but ended up bombing them in 48hrs, he talked about bombing Nigeria and people said it was not going to happen but it did happen, he bombed terrorists in Nigeria on Christmas eve and the world did not end. So, the case of Maduro was a free odd for players if prediction markets offered it.

So, if everything is so simple and clear, then you must have made a ton of money from all these events? Or is everything you wrote just verbal diarrhea and worthless? Sorry, but I think this is the second option.
As for insider trading on Polymarket, it certainly exists because there are so many markets there, and anyone who gets information early can easily turn it into profit. As for the Trump administration, I'm hard-pressed to say whether a profit of half a million dollars is a significant amount to attract anyone there.

[Ishicryptic]

Obviously these are commonly seen in Trump's time, but this is the first one that I have heard of in something that is related to prediction markets like this but which is very possible. Where I have noticed it before was in trading. I saw a trader last year that used huge amount of money to open a position, close the position, Trump came with his announcement and the market went opposite direction. I did not think it was a coincidence at the time. Government officials should be banned not only from prediction markets but also trading if possible.

To ban government officials wouldn't still stop this manipulation because if they're ban and they have the information, they can still leak ot out to their friends or closed ones to bet on and still get a share of the profits. It's annoying to see that Trumps regime a lot of market manipulation and gambling manipulation is on the high side with Trump next moves.

I believe this is not just luck but a leak of information from an insider.

I wouldn't doubt that there will be manipulation in the big win of the Trump, abduction of Maduro, and wife, it's not easy to get such a perfect prediction. It is most likely an inside leak from officials who are in the know of the operation to abduct Maduro but banning government officials from engaging in prediction bets doesn't stop the manipulation, they will easily give the information to a trusted person to make the predictions while they share the win. I don't think that paying prediction big wins will be a problem for Polymarket, they will make enough money from the loses of wrong predictions, it doesn't mean that I support manipulative wins.

[Fortify]

On Friday, 2nd January, the odds of Maduro's removal were 6.5%. Before midnight the odds had jumped to 11% and surged in the early hours of January 3rd. The sudden change happened just before Trump announced on Truth Social that Maduro was in US custody. A new Polymarket account that registered last year made more than $436,000 from a $32,537 bet.

There is suspicion that some top government officials had prior information about the attacks and captured the president. This is not new, as some people have also accused Trump's inner circle of benefiting from the tariff war. This sudden change in predictions has caught the attention of Congressman Ritchie Torres who introduced a bill on Monday that seeks to ban government employees from engaging in prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" that relates to the bet

There is a tiny chance that some rich millionaire decided to take a punt because there did look to be some kind of build up against Venezuela and it was conceivable that there might have been an invasion before the end of March which would have paid the bet off. However the fact it was placed so close to the event was highly suspicious, but I've not seen how that market operates and whether that was an irregular trade or not. I just wonder who on earth took the opposite side of the trade for such a high amount of money, but I guess there are traders out there who like to place bets on 3%~ odds and sometimes they get burned like this. Ultimately with all the corruption around Trump right now, this is just one of a very long list of scummy actions that the administration is taking so it'd be no surprise if it was insider trading. The fact it was not shared with Congress before military action was taken makes it even more obvious that it was a Republican with the knowledge.

[lionheart78]

All we have in this case is just an assumption.  No one knows but the actor.  Anything stated about this case is just speculation unless strong proof is presented.

On the contrary, we all know that the high-ranking government officials have intel about this activities, we cannot remove the possiblity that someone is passing an inside information to others just for the reason of winning a huge amount of money.

This sudden change in predictions has caught the attention of Congressman Ritchie Torres who introduced a bill on Monday that seeks to ban government employees from engaging in prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" that relates to the bet

This is useless; they can still relay it to their friends and relatives who will make the bet. Because of this proof of winnings, expect the popularity of prediction platforms to boom.

There will be predictions involving luck, and others where inside knowledge will play its part. There's even a possibility that politicians will create a situation to gain an advantage in the prediction market; such a possibility is not remote.

I highly agree, anyone can deny that they know someone from the government, even if they themselves receive insider information.  But whether there was an insider information leak, it is for the accuser to give evidence that it happened, and most of the time, even if it is true, without solid evidence, it is ruled out as just a rumor.