Luck or Inside Knowledge: User made $436,000 betting on Maduro's downfall.

[Fiatless]

On Friday, 2nd January, the odds of Maduro's removal were 6.5%. Before midnight the odds had jumped to 11% and surged in the early hours of January 3rd. The sudden change happened just before Trump announced on Truth Social that Maduro was in US custody. A new Polymarket account that registered last year made more than $436,000 from a $32,537 bet.

There is suspicion that some top government officials had prior information about the attacks and captured the president. This is not new, as some people have also accused Trump's inner circle of benefiting from the tariff war. This sudden change in predictions has caught the attention of Congressman Ritchie Torres who introduced a bill on Monday that seeks to ban government employees from engaging in prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" that relates to the bet

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2gn93292do

[Oshosondy]

Obviously these are commonly seen in Trump's time, but this is the first one that I have heard of in something that is related to prediction markets like this but which is very possible. Where I have noticed it before was in trading. I saw a trader last year that used huge amount of money to open a position, close the position, Trump came with his announcement and the market went opposite direction. I did not think it was a coincidence at the time. Government officials should be banned not only from prediction markets but also trading if possible.

[Ruttoshi]

Obviously these are commonly seen in Trump's time, but this is the first one that I have heard of in something that is related to prediction markets like this but which is very possible. Where I have noticed it before was in trading. I saw a trader last year that used huge amount of money to open a position, close the position, Trump came with his announcement and the market went opposite direction. I did not think it was a coincidence at the time. Government officials should be banned not only from prediction markets but also trading if possible.

To ban government officials wouldn't still stop this manipulation because if they're ban and they have the information, they can still leak ot out to their friends or closed ones to bet on and still get a share of the profits. It's annoying to see that Trumps regime a lot of market manipulation and gambling manipulation is on the high side with Trump next moves.

I believe this is not just luck but a leak of information from an insider.

[alani123]

Trump's cabinet has in many occasions been involved with insider activity with crypto. I wouldn't be surprised.

They know crypto and they know pokymarket. Pentagon plans are discussed months ahead. They claim this time they were waiting for the presidential ok on when to start. So certainly somebody knew.

[bitLeap]

On Friday, 2nd January, the odds of Maduro's removal were 6.5%. Before midnight the odds had jumped to 11% and surged in the early hours of January 3rd. The sudden change happened just before Trump announced on Truth Social that Maduro was in US custody. A new Polymarket account that registered last year made more than $436,000 from a $32,537 bet.

There is suspicion that some top government officials had prior information about the attacks and captured the president. This is not new, as some people have also accused Trump's inner circle of benefiting from the tariff war. This sudden change in predictions has caught the attention of Congressman Ritchie Torres who introduced a bill on Monday that seeks to ban government employees from engaging in prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" that relates to the bet

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2gn93292do

Nowadays conflicts involving countries, ethnic cleansing, divisions, coups, and so on can be turned into a source of profit by betting on prediction markets. We are faced with a reality that is increasingly eroding humanity and placing greater emphasis on betting on prediction markets. They can obtain confidential information, get in early and get out early for profit.

what is happening in this world? where everything has to be based on prediction markets, even when thousands of lives are at stake.

[Dave1]

Trump's cabinet has in many occasions been involved with insider activity with crypto. I wouldn't be surprised.

They know crypto and they know pokymarket. Pentagon plans are discussed months ahead. They claim this time they were waiting for the presidential ok on when to start. So certainly somebody knew.

Even with Trump odd's to win the election in PolyMarket, there are some that could have had a insider information and so they put a bet on it and won millions. So just like you said, it has set a precedence and so no doubt that there could be insider information and that someone knows so he bet and won big too.

So probably others are looking as Trump mentioned Columbia and Cuba as next in their cross hair.

[davis196]

On Friday, 2nd January, the odds of Maduro's removal were 6.5%. Before midnight the odds had jumped to 11% and surged in the early hours of January 3rd. The sudden change happened just before Trump announced on Truth Social that Maduro was in US custody. A new Polymarket account that registered last year made more than $436,000 from a $32,537 bet.

There is suspicion that some top government officials had prior information about the attacks and captured the president. This is not new, as some people have also accused Trump's inner circle of benefiting from the tariff war. This sudden change in predictions has caught the attention of Congressman Ritchie Torres who introduced a bill on Monday that seeks to ban government employees from engaging in prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" that relates to the bet

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2gn93292do

This is 100% insider betting. I doubt that the guy(a government official or CIA agent), who made that bet would open Polymarket account with his own info. The correct way would be to convince some friend to register the account bet the money. Another problem is the amount of money, which were placed as a bet. Betting 32K USD on such specific prediction market definitely raises suspicion. The guy probably should've created several accounts to place several bets on this prediction market. Insider trading/betting is really hard to get caught by the authorities.

[viljy]

Well, it's an insider. I don't understand how the law will help to combat such fraud. After all, there is a question of user identification. And this would be a violation of anonymity and confidentiality. That's why I don't like "forecast markets." After all, sports betting is more honest, because it's more difficult to do this there.

[ZeroVinsonN]

Banning is the first step but it won't really change much but then I am wondering, if there was an information leak then why not bet even higher to the point of winning millions? Is there some kind of restriction on how much a person can bet or is it somehow related to how much there are earning, I mean you obviously can place a bet with an amount of money that's way out of your paycheck's range, so why didn't he bet more if there was a leak?

[fruktik]

Obviously these are commonly seen in Trump's time, but this is the first one that I have heard of in something that is related to prediction markets like this but which is very possible. Where I have noticed it before was in trading. I saw a trader last year that used huge amount of money to open a position, close the position, Trump came with his announcement and the market went opposite direction. I did not think it was a coincidence at the time. Government officials should be banned not only from prediction markets but also trading if possible.

Not only should they be removed from trading, but a serious investigation should be conducted. I'm sure there's something to be found there. Nowadays, only those who are concerned with their own well-being come to power. There's no concern for the people whatsoever. They've created the illusion of governing the state, but in reality, all they do is use administrative resources for personal enrichment. Nothing has changed in this world for centuries.

[swogerino]

It was totally inside knowledge in my opinion as someone does not simply create a new account and deposit 30.000 dollars right away out of the blue and bet it all on Maduro exit until 31 January 2026. It may look like total randomness yet in my opinion I do not believe in such type of luck as it happens once in a whole lot number of years to random person. I wish I knew myself anytime any of such precious type of knowledge which can result in boosting really big your financial situation like in the case mentioned here. In political events like this one luck rarely plays a role and most of the time there is premeditated well thought decisions.

[Cryptmuster]

On Friday, 2nd January, the odds of Maduro's removal were 6.5%. Before midnight the odds had jumped to 11% and surged in the early hours of January 3rd. The sudden change happened just before Trump announced on Truth Social that Maduro was in US custody. A new Polymarket account that registered last year made more than $436,000 from a $32,537 bet.

There is suspicion that some top government officials had prior information about the attacks and captured the president. This is not new, as some people have also accused Trump's inner circle of benefiting from the tariff war. This sudden change in predictions has caught the attention of Congressman Ritchie Torres who introduced a bill on Monday that seeks to ban government employees from engaging in prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" that relates to the bet

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2gn93292do

I think that officials may have access to such information, or people from Trumps close circle may have it, which is even more likely. And I agree that such people should be banned from betting on events like this, but you will not be able to control that this information does not reach other people. If an official tells someone, it will be very difficult to track or prove it. 32k is a very large bet, ordinary people do not place bets like that.

[_act_]

To ban government officials wouldn't still stop this manipulation because if they're ban and they have the information, they can still leak ot out to their friends or closed ones to bet on and still get a share of the profits. It's annoying to see that Trumps regime a lot of market manipulation and gambling manipulation is on the high side with Trump next moves.

Yes, if the government officials are banned from trading, gambling, prediction markets and others that the government officials can take advantage of to make money, the government officials will still be able to leak out information to their friends or closed ones to bet on and still get a share of the profits, but in cases like this, such person will be likely be investigated to know if there is insider information or not. There are some government officers that will think people will not know what happene, but sometimes the truth are revealed after investigation.

[maydna]

I guess that winner is Donald Trump Jr, the president's son, who placed the bet

As per the article, Donald Trump serves in advisory roles at Kalshi and Polymarket. That can makes people suspected he or his people placed the bet. No one knows but Polymarket probably know that.

It will gives benefit for those who knows Trump's inner circle and uses that for themselves.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

This could be a prior inside information, it could have been just a coincidence or luck if the person had stake with a small amount which means that there's a bit of doubt in the person's mind but with the amount the person staked with not even minding how risky it was since the odd was surging, it clearly tells that the person was very optimistic that the outcome would be positive, the person's optimism must have been prior to inside information.

[joeperry]

I'm still sure there might be an insider information and that's not some kind of luck if you are going to place bet with a $32k on bet regarding politics unless you know something big is going to happen. I've been in a gambling space for a while now but I haven't heard of Polymarket, it's nice that this kind of platform exist and I am not aware of it, there's a lot of markets and predictions especially in geo politics which I can't usually find in normal gambling sites. Anyway, this platform is good if you have insider information and that's probably the case here of that person that won $436,000.

[iv4n]

Well, whether it's just luck or inside knowledge, something like this doesn't just happen. It probably takes months of planning, and in the end, all the final approvals have to come from the top.

There are crazy bets and even crazier wins... is this bet just one of them? I am not sure, but betting big on political events and winning big will always be suspicious. There's enough space for creating theory conspiracies, definitely.

But, even if it's inside information, those things are so hard to prove...

[purple_sparkles]

It is quite possible that this person had some information that he used. However, we should not dismiss the possibility that he simply analyzed all the events and information that preceded what happened very well. Even before Maduro’s arrest, the news had already been saying that his regime should fall, that he was a dictator, and there was a lot of rhetoric and narrative building in that direction.Therefore, it is quite likely that certain actions could have been taken against him. He may not have known exactly how it would happen, but he could have foreseen the outcome quite clearly.

[demonica]

Well obviously, if you have connections within the high position of government officials, you can gain that information first before it gets released to the public. I think it's a common thing to be honest. Insiders get to know confidential information first then there will be rumors before they release official announcements in public.

But how can we really ban government officials in this? They can still use other people around them to bet on their behalf so they won't be directly involved in the betting. They can do anything if money is involved.

[lombok]

It is quite possible that this person had some information that he used. However, we should not dismiss the possibility that he simply analyzed all the events and information that preceded what happened very well. Even before Maduro’s arrest, the news had already been saying that his regime should fall, that he was a dictator, and there was a lot of rhetoric and narrative building in that direction.Therefore, it is quite likely that certain actions could have been taken against him. He may not have known exactly how it would happen, but he could have foreseen the outcome quite clearly.

Most laypeople tend to expect that ability to read the geopolitical situation to imply possession of classified information. Admittedly, the tendencies of the breakdown of a given regime are often highly visible in the forms of international pressure and diplomatic isolation. We must be able to admire the intellectual ability of a person to indirectly relate out of the box events to correct and rational conclusions. Even though the future cannot be foreseen accurately by examining the day-to-day data, sharp analysis in the public sphere can indeed present it to the common man as a leaked information.