Bitcoin might be gearing for a long-term bullishness

[EarnOnVictor]

I'm beginning to doubt Bitcoin's 4-year traditional cycle. Initially, I was bearish on Bitcoin for many reasons, but with the current chart realignment, I see a positive bullish light, which is a sign of reversal that could linger for months.

On the weekly chart above, it's now clear that Bitcoin is unsuccessful in breaking the 38.2% Fibo level of $84,232 (long-term sell's determining support) after weeks of attempts. I first mentioned the level on the 19th of December, 2025, though it has been holding well since November. The level remains solid

Needless to say, the current trendline levels favour the upside, even as the first to be broken to change this view is at $84,328. Also, the price action is regrouping positively to support this. How the market closes this week will further increase credence in this, and a break of the 23.6% Fibo level at $99,990 could catapult it back to the ATH level.

[Perfectbaby]

Needless to say, the current trendline levels favour the upside, even as the first to be broken to change this view is at $84,328. Also, the price action is regrouping positively to support this. How the market closes this week will further increase credence in this, and a break of the 23.6% Fibo level at $99,990 could catapult it back to the ATH level.

From my view there are things that I am seeing in common while the market keeps moving.
From the range of 93k there were Strong resistance which makes the market to pull back, to me I found out that market is trying to gain momentum to push above 94k and when this is achieved then we can be sure of 100k before we hit mid week of January.

[AVE5]

I'm beginning to doubt Bitcoin's 4-year traditional cycle. Initially, I was bearish on Bitcoin for many reasons, but with the current chart realignment, I see a positive bullish light, which is a sign of reversal that could linger for months.

Obviously it's constant changes of the market volatilities is what makes determining the price unpredictable.
Already the regular 4 years events has only occurred its events repeatedly and then traders now see the market charts of its historical performance to be a traditional events for the bitcoin market.
You should also expect the unexpected in bitcoin when you talks about volatilities analysis so that you don't bet your lifetime and lost it at of overconfident after a particular behaviour had been yielding you success for the long term.

[Dunamisx]

The chart explains how the market could be more bullish henceforth, because we have been on bear ad the market fall down to $80k till the last day of the year 2025 and now that this new month seems to be more productive one renting the market bullish than before, which I also have the hope that the market may continue being bullish until we make all time high.

[Wiwo]

Needless to say, the current trendline levels favour the upside, even as the first to be broken to change this view is at $84,328. Also, the price action is regrouping positively to support this. How the market closes this week will further increase credence in this, and a break of the 23.6% Fibo level at $99,990 could catapult it back to the ATH level.

From my view there are things that I am seeing in common while the market keeps moving.
From the range of 93k there were Strong resistance which makes the market to pull back, to me I found out that market is trying to gain momentum to push above 94k and when this is achieved then we can be sure of 100k before we hit mid week of January.

I am more on the correctional dimension for bitcoin this season, I saw how the chart was showing high liquidity build up for bitcoin in the last 24 to 48 hours that was before the price pushed up to the $93k price before it pull back again.

Just as I have predicted before, we are not going to any much uptrend movement for bitcoin this period of time may be after January we as beginning to see more positive sustainable growth for the market but for now, we are going to be seeing slow growth but with high resistance that keeps us at that benchmark.

Any way, this is just my own speculation and predictions, we all know that bitcoin don't follow any particular patten.

[Yaunfitda]

Needless to say, the current trendline levels favour the upside, even as the first to be broken to change this view is at $84,328. Also, the price action is regrouping positively to support this. How the market closes this week will further increase credence in this, and a break of the 23.6% Fibo level at $99,990 could catapult it back to the ATH level.

From my view there are things that I am seeing in common while the market keeps moving.
From the range of 93k there were Strong resistance which makes the market to pull back, to me I found out that market is trying to gain momentum to push above 94k and when this is achieved then we can be sure of 100k before we hit mid week of January.

I am more on the correctional dimension for bitcoin this season, I saw how the chart was showing high liquidity build up for bitcoin in the last 24 to 48 hours that was before the price pushed up to the $93k price before it pull back again.

Just as I have predicted before, we are not going to any much uptrend movement for bitcoin this period of time may be after January we as beginning to see more positive sustainable growth for the market but for now, we are going to be seeing slow growth but with high resistance that keeps us at that benchmark.

Any way, this is just my own speculation and predictions, we all know that bitcoin don't follow any particular patten.

And just like that, from $94k-$93k down to $91k'ish right now and there are a chance that it could go lower as there are obviously some speculators that might have taken some profits already after that pump because of Trump's military action against Venezuela. So it's hard to see if we are gearing for a long term bullishness as in short term, the market looks red. I can only see a continues bullish pump if there will be some positive news along the way and investors are willing to pour their money again just like what we have seen when we hit a new all time high like 4-5 months ago. So for me still 50/50, and on the contrary there are many investors that might think that we have entered the bearish season already. Which means is going to be painful again to see as the price is going to decline.

[JeffBrad12]

I will wait for bitcoin to break the resistance at $100k first before making any significant decision such as buying more. Currently holding bitcoin and I think there is chance that it failed breaking out which means we are a bit cooked .
But if it broke the resistance then we gonna see bitcoin on the higher level again which is gonna be great for my bag. I'm actually waiting for more good news for bitcoin to better drive up the narrative so it can chase gold or at least tech stock.

[dunfida]

Needless to say, the current trendline levels favour the upside, even as the first to be broken to change this view is at $84,328. Also, the price action is regrouping positively to support this. How the market closes this week will further increase credence in this, and a break of the 23.6% Fibo level at $99,990 could catapult it back to the ATH level.

From my view there are things that I am seeing in common while the market keeps moving.
From the range of 93k there were Strong resistance which makes the market to pull back, to me I found out that market is trying to gain momentum to push above 94k and when this is achieved then we can be sure of 100k before we hit mid week of January.

I am more on the correctional dimension for bitcoin this season, I saw how the chart was showing high liquidity build up for bitcoin in the last 24 to 48 hours that was before the price pushed up to the $93k price before it pull back again.

Just as I have predicted before, we are not going to any much uptrend movement for bitcoin this period of time may be after January we as beginning to see more positive sustainable growth for the market but for now, we are going to be seeing slow growth but with high resistance that keeps us at that benchmark.

Any way, this is just my own speculation and predictions, we all know that bitcoin don't follow any particular patten.

And just like that, from $94k-$93k down to $91k'ish right now and there are a chance that it could go lower as there are obviously some speculators that might have taken some profits already after that pump because of Trump's military action against Venezuela. So it's hard to see if we are gearing for a long term bullishness as in short term, the market looks red. I can only see a continues bullish pump if there will be some positive news along the way and investors are willing to pour their money again just like what we have seen when we hit a new all time high like 4-5 months ago. So for me still 50/50, and on the contrary there are many investors that might think that we have entered the bearish season already. Which means is going to be painful again to see as the price is going to decline.

Fundamentals could neither give out some effect or not on which it is really that hard to speculate or simply this shows on how unpredictable this market is. We've been able to see those sentiments whether they do work or not. It will be that totally depending on how the market behaves. This is why im not that stressing myself when it comes on trying out to apply when it comes to technical analysis. Its neither a fake out or totally a reversal. We've been able to see some good recovery in terms of price movement but we cant be able to tell whether it is just a pullback and continuing some bearish momentum. It will be just that depending on how you would be placing yourself towards the market. Some saying that we are already on the bear market and some say that this is really just that the last dump before shooting up.

[fullfitlarry]

I will wait for bitcoin to break the resistance at $100k first before making any significant decision such as buying more. Currently holding bitcoin and I think there is chance that it failed breaking out which means we are a bit cooked .

That is the biggest resistance that we have right now, $100k. But if ever we reach it again, it could put a lot of money in the market because investors think that we are again in the bullish trend and there will be no bearish market.

But if it broke the resistance then we gonna see bitcoin on the higher level again which is gonna be great for my bag. I'm actually waiting for more good news for bitcoin to better drive up the narrative so it can chase gold or at least tech stock.

Or there will be sellers again and take that profit when we reach that price? So it's not like reaching 6 digits could be good as again, speculators are going to sell their bags no matter what as they are just for short term profits.

[EarnOnVictor]

-snip-

momentum to push above 94k and when this is achieved then we can be sure of 100k before we hit mid week of January.

Bitcoin almost hit $95,000 this week. I will be carefully monitoring the situation. But for me, I don't think the buyers have something serious to be afraid of if the price holds above the 38.2% Fibo level at $84,232. So, the $100,000 that you mentioned might happen sooner or later. And when it does, that might hit fast on a special level of around $107K+.

I'm beginning to doubt Bitcoin's 4-year traditional cycle. Initially, I was bearish on Bitcoin for many reasons, but with the current chart realignment, I see a positive bullish light, which is a sign of reversal that could linger for months.

Already the regular 4 years events has only occurred its events repeatedly and then traders now see the market charts of its historical performance to be a traditional events for the bitcoin market.
You should also expect the unexpected in bitcoin when you talks about volatilities analysis so that you don't bet your lifetime and lost it at of overconfident after a particular behaviour had been yielding you success for the long term.

I was even sceptical of the traditional institutions and die-hard investors' involvement in Bitcoin, so this is practical. When they are involved in a market, you can be assured that the market will have strong support, as they do not liquidate easily. This could cause a change in Bitcoin's 4-year cycle. That's my concern.

I will wait for bitcoin to break the resistance at $100k first before making any significant decision such as buying more. Currently holding bitcoin and

Waiting is good, but at times, if your signals didn't give you the go-ahead early enough, it could be disadvantageous to enter late. I said it because there's another strong barrier around $107K+, judging by another daily chart analysis.

[batang_bitcoin]

We'll see if the 4-year cycle for this year is still superior than of the disruption that the analyses that we've seen like with OPs. I want to see it disrupted and see that it breaks the 4-year cycle and something new changes. This is going to be a new narrative that many might don't like because it's a pattern that's already known when to invest and when to profit. But if it becomes a game changer, this could open to more opportunities, volume and probably a better all time high. It's still too early to tell since the usual lowest for a bear market shows at the end of the year.

[Odohu]

I will wait for bitcoin to break the resistance at $100k first before making any significant decision such as buying more. Currently holding bitcoin and I think there is chance that it failed breaking out which means we are a bit cooked .
But if it broke the resistance then we gonna see bitcoin on the higher level again which is gonna be great for my bag. I'm actually waiting for more good news for bitcoin to better drive up the narrative so it can chase gold or at least tech stock.

Well said and this aligns with my views. Bitcoin have refused to break $100k after several attempts and that is a source of concern. And this year is confusing because we were expecting bear dominance following the four years cycle but there seems to be some changes which makes it hard to know what the market will do before it happens. Hence, it is safer to lower the expectations because of the numerous possibilities that exist. Even the gains the market made earlier this year have almost been eroded which suggest the possibility of the correction continuing.

[rbynxx]

We'll see if the 4-year cycle for this year is still superior than of the disruption that the analyses that we've seen like with OPs. I want to see it disrupted and see that it breaks the 4-year cycle and something new changes. This is going to be a new narrative that many might don't like because it's a pattern that's already known when to invest and when to profit. But if it becomes a game changer, this could open to more opportunities, volume and probably a better all time high. It's still too early to tell since the usual lowest for a bear market shows at the end of the year.

I do believe the 4 year cycle is probably have been broken already and I don't see it as superior anymore, the market has mature and the investors has been more intelligent. History often rhymes but it's not that bad to be cautious some of the time especially now that Bitcoin is in boring phase.

[Free Market Capitalist]

Yeah, well, might or might not.

I do believe the 4 year cycle is probably have been broken already and I don't see it as superior anymore, the market has mature and the investors has been more intelligent. History often rhymes but it's not that bad to be cautious some of the time especially now that Bitcoin is in boring phase.

What happens in 2026 will have a decisive influence on how we conceive of cycles. If it is bullish, we can say that cycles as we knew them have changed. But if it is not bullish and the price does not reach an ATH until after the next halving, it will not change our idea of cycles so much, but it will change our expectations of profitability. This will be even more so if other assets such as gold continue to appreciate and break through their highs.

[jaberwock]

It is not. I understand that people have hopes, high hopes, but bitcoin will go up on long term "long" term.
As in in 3-4 years later. So do not expect it to be good for this year, if you do then you are going to be upset.

Reality is that we are not going to face the same thing again here, and we need to make sure that things are looking better on the long run. If we can make this work then we are going to get a better return and won't face any big issues. If we deal with it at right time, then long term will benefit.

[free-bit.co.in]

We'll see if the 4-year cycle for this year is still superior than of the disruption that the analyses that we've seen like with OPs. I want to see it disrupted and see that it breaks the 4-year cycle and something new changes. This is going to be a new narrative that many might don't like because it's a pattern that's already known when to invest and when to profit. But if it becomes a game changer, this could open to more opportunities, volume and probably a better all time high. It's still too early to tell since the usual lowest for a bear market shows at the end of the year.

I do believe the 4 year cycle is probably have been broken already and I don't see it as superior anymore, the market has mature and the investors has been more intelligent. History often rhymes but it's not that bad to be cautious some of the time especially now that Bitcoin is in boring phase.

I agree with you that the market has become more mature and investor have become smarter. But it is still too early to declare that the traditional 4 year cycle has been broken.

It is true that there have been some changes in this cycle, such as Bitcoin reaching an ATH before the halving, or the absence of altcoin season. But that is still not enough to conclude that the 4 year cycle of bitcoin has actually ended or is no longer valid. In my opinion, to definitively confirm that the 4 year cycle has been broken, Bitcoin needs to form an uptrend and reach ATHs this year.

Let's wait and see what happens.

[LogitechMouse]

It is not. I understand that people have hopes, high hopes, but bitcoin will go up on long term "long" term.
As in in 3-4 years later. So do not expect it to be good for this year, if you do then you are going to be upset.

Reality is that we are not going to face the same thing again here, and we need to make sure that things are looking better on the long run. If we can make this work then we are going to get a better return and won't face any big issues. If we deal with it at right time, then long term will benefit.

There will always be investors that don't know how to accept reality. The reality that the market will still pump again despite of the signs of the bear market happening that it's been showing. I can't blame them because humans have this kind of thinking where they don't want to accept the negative side of it, but they only focus on the positive side.

TBH, I'm not expecting as well. I'm just waiting for Bitcoin to touch that 50 Weekly MA then I'll be unloading majority of my Bitcoin holdings. I'm not expecting for a long-term pump, a continuation of the bull market, or either a new ATH. If the crypto market will follow the 4-year cycle, 2026 should be a year where the market will be going down, and down although I don't expect that Q1 will be the start of the TRUE bear market. I'm still expecting that we will see some relief bounces all throughout the 1st quarter.

Bitcoin gearing for long-term bullishness? Possible, but we need to see a MAJOR correction first before seeing that long-term bullishness.

[Marvelockg]

I will wait for bitcoin to break the resistance at $100k first before making any significant decision such as buying more. Currently holding bitcoin and I think there is chance that it failed breaking out which means we are a bit cooked .

I'm certain that a lot of investors are holding on to this thought process as you and are waiting for bitcoin to cross the last ATH before they start buying again but that begs the question, why wait for a new all time high before you start buying knowing fully well that the only time you can buy at a low is now that the market is relatively bearish.

I'm already invested and not selling anytime soon, the plan is to continue my DCA and if there's an increase eventually, it's a win win case for me.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I hope OP is right because I was particularly disappointed with the performance in 2025. I know we hit all time highs but I thought the price would go a lot higher. If we do see 2026 being a green year then it would confirm the end of the traditional four year cycle.

[Ishicryptic]

It is not. I understand that people have hopes, high hopes, but bitcoin will go up on long term "long" term.
As in in 3-4 years later. So do not expect it to be good for this year, if you do then you are going to be upset.

Reality is that we are not going to face the same thing again here, and we need to make sure that things are looking better on the long run. If we can make this work then we are going to get a better return and won't face any big issues. If we deal with it at right time, then long term will benefit.

Hope is a good thing, it keeps dreams alive but the reality about Bitcoin price so far is that it is not bullish as at now, we don't know how long it will remain before we start to see a bullish trend. A lot of people including myself have predicted that we are going down into bear run because indications were very high for a bullish fourth quarter of 2025 but it came far short of it and that 2026 won't be any different. I wouldn't totally put my trust on technical analysis because a fundamental can suddenly change the course of the chart. Let us wait and see if this 2026 will be bullish or not.