Bitcoin might be gearing for a long-term bullishness

[God Of Thunder]

We have been talking about this for a while. Bitcoin is no longer following previous patterns. There is a chance we will see a different movement. We did not have ETF, we did not have all those adoption news. The current ETF market largely controls the Bitcoin market. If Bitcoin do not fall in 2026, that four year cycle bullrun and a bearish market after the ATH assumption will be proved wrong. Bitcoin is becoming unpredictable. You will have to read the charts carefully to understand the trend. Let's hope Bitcoin will stay positive in 2026 although a lot of people are already saying that they are ready for a bearish market.

[fuguebtc]

I will wait for bitcoin to break the resistance at $100k first before making any significant decision such as buying more. Currently holding bitcoin and I think there is chance that it failed breaking out which means we are a bit cooked .

I'm certain that a lot of investors are holding on to this thought process as you and are waiting for bitcoin to cross the last ATH before they start buying again but that begs the question, why wait for a new all time high before you start buying knowing fully well that the only time you can buy at a low is now that the market is relatively bearish.

I'm already invested and not selling anytime soon, the plan is to continue my DCA and if there's an increase eventually, it's a win win case for me.

I think only speculator and trader waiting for Bitcoin to surpass the $100k or its previous ATH are starting to buy in. Because they need to clearly identify shortterm trends to minimize risk. Meanwhile, long term investors began buying when the price dropped to $80k. They will always take advantage of any price correction, so I do not think any long term investors are waiting for Bitcoin to break above $100k to buy in.

What is the point of buying Bitcoin at a high price if they decide to hold it long-term? If someone has that kind of mindset, they should not call themselves a long term investor and in essence, they are no different from a trader.

[justdimin]

I think only speculator and trader waiting for Bitcoin to surpass the $100k or its previous ATH are starting to buy in. Because they need to clearly identify shortterm trends to minimize risk. Meanwhile, long term investors began buying when the price dropped to $80k. They will always take advantage of any price correction, so I do not think any long term investors are waiting for Bitcoin to break above $100k to buy in.

What is the point of buying Bitcoin at a high price if they decide to hold it long-term? If someone has that kind of mindset, they should not call themselves a long term investor and in essence, they are no different from a trader.

Yeah, still some are buying right now, it is true that long term investors know the cycles and being careful. I know it looks green right now, but there are green days even in a bear market, and we have not started the bear market just yet, but we have finished the bull market long ago.

When price fell from 125k to 90k and even lower, we knew that bull was over, we are just waiting for bear to start, not sure when that will be but we know that it will happen so we are waiting for it. I am not going to buy from here, makes no sense to buy at 91k and hope that it goes up a lot more, that is not going to happen. What I hope is to make sure that I wait long enough so that it can do a better job later on , because I will buy at lower price later.

[GreatArkansas]

We have been talking about this for a while. Bitcoin is no longer following previous patterns. There is a chance we will see a different movement. We did not have ETF, we did not have all those adoption news. The current ETF market largely controls the Bitcoin market. If Bitcoin do not fall in 2026, that four year cycle bullrun and a bearish market after the ATH assumption will be proved wrong. Bitcoin is becoming unpredictable. You will have to read the charts carefully to understand the trend. Let's hope Bitcoin will stay positive in 2026 although a lot of people are already saying that they are ready for a bearish market.

This makes sense. I agree with this. Most people speculating on Bitcoin are basing their predictions on previous price actions like previous all-time high, previous block halvings, etc.

The most difficult part of it is predicting the best entry or the lowest price before the next all-time high as Bitcoin is really unpredictable now.

[Awaklara]

When price fell from 125k to 90k and even lower, we knew that bull was over, we are just waiting for bear to start, not sure when that will be but we know that it will happen so we are waiting for it. I am not going to buy from here, makes no sense to buy at 91k and hope that it goes up a lot more, that is not going to happen. What I hope is to make sure that I wait long enough so that it can do a better job later on , because I will buy at lower price later.

I also choose to wait for the bear market to begin. But there's nothing wrong with those who are buying now, because they might plan to hold in the long term, or at least through the next bullish cycle. 
I still believe there will be a deeper price decline. The current situation may repeat several more times. So we might not want to rush into making a decision to buy.

[God Of Thunder]

This makes sense. I agree with this. Most people speculating on Bitcoin are basing their predictions on previous price actions like previous all-time high, previous block halvings, etc.

The most difficult part of it is predicting the best entry or the lowest price before the next all-time high as Bitcoin is really unpredictable now.

Yeah, we still predict the Bitcoin market based on its previous pattern, ATH and the charts. As I mentioned earlier, we did not have ETFs back then, which we have today, and ETFs control most of the market situation today. If there is an inflow in the ETF market, Bitcoin price pumps, and it dumps when there is a net outflow from the ETF market. The market mostly follows the stock market pattern today instead of its own pattern, which we still analyse to figure out the possible outcome of Bitcoin.

[barbara44]

The chart explains how the market could be more bullish henceforth, because we have been on bear ad the market fall down to $80k till the last day of the year 2025 and now that this new month seems to be more productive one renting the market bullish than before, which I also have the hope that the market may continue being bullish until we make all time high.

Basically that just how it goes> up and down and then down and up. We have been in a down line for a long time now, so the market this year must be in the up line this time. To prove this, we are in fact seeing a green in the charts again. However it is early to say that we can be more bullish than before. We just had our latest ATH last time and recording another major one is not easy but it takes time like a couple of years.

The holiday season is done, so people needs to be productive again in order to regain the wealth that have been lost but when you say 'renting', that is literal because bull times doesn't last a long time. Even though it may seem sad but it can be viewed as happy too, thinking we can start a new phase of buying and holding immediately. You know, we don't waste too much time.

[Rockstarguy]

We have been talking about this for a while. Bitcoin is no longer following previous patterns. There is a chance we will see a different movement. We did not have ETF, we did not have all those adoption news. The current ETF market largely controls the Bitcoin market. If Bitcoin do not fall in 2026, that four year cycle bullrun and a bearish market after the ATH assumption will be proved wrong. Bitcoin is becoming unpredictable. You will have to read the charts carefully to understand the trend. Let's hope Bitcoin will stay positive in 2026 although a lot of people are already saying that they are ready for a bearish market.

Bitcoin is becoming more unpredictable, and since it is becoming this way, it will be better for investors not to expect much from the movement of Bitcoin because it can't be predicted. Normally, when it comes to the movement of Bitcoin, anything can happen; it will just be better for people not to have much hope concerning the price movement of Bitcoin.

The uncertainty of the price of Bitcoin shouldn't be a problem for investors because even before now, the movement hasn't been certain. We just invest in Bitcoin and hold until we get what we want from the market. Investors still need to use this mindset to invest and hold Bitcoin.

[Asiska02]

I'm beginning to doubt Bitcoin's 4-year traditional cycle. Initially, I was bearish on Bitcoin for many reasons, but with the current chart realignment, I see a positive bullish light, which is a sign of reversal that could linger for months.

Your analysis is really aligning well but we should not forget that the market will continue to be very unpredictable and anything can happen at anytime. If Bitcoin is to have a change to its four year cycle, then it is not just only technical analysis that will play out in this, other strongholds will really have to prove a great change in the market before it turns into a bullish momentum and we get to see another bullish momentum that will linger for a longer time this 2026.

[EarnOnVictor]

I'm beginning to doubt Bitcoin's 4-year traditional cycle. Initially, I was bearish on Bitcoin for many reasons, but with the current chart realignment, I see a positive bullish light, which is a sign of reversal that could linger for months.

Your analysis is really aligning well but we should not forget that the market will continue to be very unpredictable and anything can happen at anytime. If Bitcoin is to have a change to its four year cycle, then it is not just only technical analysis that will play out in this, other strongholds will really have to prove a great change in the market before it turns into a bullish momentum and we get to see another bullish momentum that will linger for a longer time this 2026.

Of course, something must align with the displacement of the market from the initial pattern to make it solid, it has always been like that. However, the technical analysis like this is to guide us on what the market has done, created on the chart (as the pattern), and what it could later do. This is why I have referenced the price on both the upper and lower levels, it's now left to the side it eventually breaks.

For now, it has been ranging with no specific direction, which is a result of the lack of serious catalytic events. Regardless, it will take Bitcoin a break below $84,232 before I take the Bears seriously.

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This makes sense. I agree with this. Most people speculating on Bitcoin are basing their predictions on previous price actions like previous all-time high, previous block halvings, etc.

Fortunately, it works so well if you are conversant with Bitcoin events/history/tradition and a good chart reader.

The most difficult part of it is predicting the best entry or the lowest price before the next all-time high as Bitcoin is really unpredictable now.

The main thing is to catch the train when it is going your way, rather than where it started the journey from.

[Redudletech]

Well technically it looks more like gearing up but don't forget that there more to it than technical view, fundamentals and sentiment affects the crypto market so it's in no way a person can say or predict the outcome or the next move of Bitcoin so its better off for us to follow the current wave and ride what we see although it varies from individual type of trading.......

[God Of Thunder]

This makes sense. I agree with this. Most people speculating on Bitcoin are basing their predictions on previous price actions like previous all-time high, previous block halvings, etc.

Considering the changes that have been made, and how Bitcoin has evolved, I doubt it would continue to follow the previous patterns. If it happens, it would be too predictable. People did not know about the patterns in the early days since it was the beginning. However, people have much more informations today and they have a lot of data to research about Bitcoin and charts to read. So, there is a high possibility people would do research and figure out what to do to make profits. Since ETF became a thing today and it actyally controls the current market movement, I doubt bitcoin market would follow the previous patterns.

[AVE5]

Bitcoin is becoming unpredictable. You will have to read the charts carefully to understand the trend. Let's hope Bitcoin will stay positive in 2026 although a lot of people are already saying that they are ready for a bearish market.

Hmm; bitcoin hasn't just been unpredictable at this very cycle rather, the place of the ETF driving position in the market this time had actually made the current behavior more difficult for analysts attempts on predicting the bitcoin behavior to even be in line with their prediction on what the unusual bullish season would be.
It's almost out of
Reading the chart to figure the direction of the market has even become so confusing if we've to always give reference following the traditional trends.

[BALIK]

This makes sense. I agree with this. Most people speculating on Bitcoin are basing their predictions on previous price actions like previous all-time high, previous block halvings, etc.

Considering the changes that have been made, and how Bitcoin has evolved, I doubt it would continue to follow the previous patterns. If it happens, it would be too predictable. People did not know about the patterns in the early days since it was the beginning. However, people have much more informations today and they have a lot of data to research about Bitcoin and charts to read. So, there is a high possibility people would do research and figure out what to do to make profits. Since ETF became a thing today and it actyally controls the current market movement, I doubt bitcoin market would follow the previous patterns.

The old pattern may or may not be outdated, either way is possible.

The market is not necessarily hard to predict, it is just that sometimes we tend to overcomplicate things. I mean, instead of just relying on old pattern, market cycles are sufficient. We begin to piece together dozens of event and come up with hundreds of hypothesis, assuming that thing will change, that this time will be different...That has happened in previous cycles as well, this is nothing new. If I remember correctly, many people made similar comment during the 2021 cycle and they believed that the 4 year cycle was no longer valid. But history repeated itself, and many missed the opportunity to take profit at that time because they believed in the theory that "this time will be different."

Personally, I will continue to believe in the old pattern until it is completely broken.

[EarnOnVictor]

This makes sense. I agree with this. Most people speculating on Bitcoin are basing their predictions on previous price actions like previous all-time high, previous block halvings, etc.

Considering the changes that have been made, and how Bitcoin has evolved, I doubt it would continue to follow the previous patterns. If it happens, it would be too predictable. People did not know about the patterns in the early days since it was the beginning.

I think you made a mistake with this quote of @EarnOnVictor, it wasn't mine, it's for the OP I replied to.

Regardless, you are very correct. I've said this since the very day I joined Bitcointalk that Bitcoin can't act the same way forever. At that time, people were not just visionist, they were blinded with the core tradition of Bitcoin without the thought for the future. That's fine, but at the same time, can an asset continue to be perfectly predicted forever? I doubt that. Doing that means it is too predictable and not highly dynamic, and this will mean cheap money-making for people. And now that Bitcoin is getting more matured in age and institutional investors are getting more interested, there's no way it will not abandon part of its old history over time, if not all.

[Dunamisx]

If there is no sure conviction that we are already done with the bull season then this January should be an expectation for all time high as the market is showing indications for more pump than bear, though we may not drop conclusion yet but with the various speculations starting from this current market performance we may say that is still more to expect even at the first quarter of this year before we could exit the bullrun season.

[khiholangkang]

Bitcoin is becoming unpredictable. You will have to read the charts carefully to understand the trend. Let's hope Bitcoin will stay positive in 2026 although a lot of people are already saying that they are ready for a bearish market.

Hmm; bitcoin hasn't just been unpredictable at this very cycle rather, the place of the ETF driving position in the market this time had actually made the current behavior more difficult for analysts attempts on predicting the bitcoin behavior to even be in line with their prediction on what the unusual bullish season would be.
It's almost out of
Reading the chart to figure the direction of the market has even become so confusing if we've to always give reference following the traditional trends.

Institutional adoption through ETFs does affect the market as a whole, therefore many people or big analysts say that our cycle is different, the habit patterns of people in the crypto market changed drastically after the encouragement of capital flows from ETFs, in other words that bullish and bearish trends became difficult to predict, but it can be noted that usually bears have a certain trigger that causes the market to collapse, it is always there, so just be careful, regarding market optimism to make the latest increase we can only hope that it will happen again in Q1 this year.