Should Politicians Be Able to Use Prediction Markets? House Bill Proposes Ban

[Slow death]

We have talked about this quote on this forum and I think it is one of the reasonsg Ritchie Torres (D-NY) and 30 of his House of Representatives colleagues, including Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), are making a push to ban government officials from accessing prediction markets:

Earlier this week, Polymarket faced scrutiny after a trader won more than $400,000 on a bet that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office before the end of the month. Criticism focused on the timing of the bet, which appeared just hours before U.S. special forces apprehended Maduro.

On the thread, we also discussed if it is insider work or not, but it is obvious that it is insider work. I think it is a good idea to ban such government officials from accessing prediction markets.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/politicians-able-prediction-markets-house-213657314.html

Let's suppose the government official knew early on that they were going to attack Venezuela to capture Maduro. Even with that information, there was no 100% guarantee that Trump couldn't change his mind or that the operation wasn't at risk of failing. At the end of the day, he couldn't guarantee 100% that he would be right in his prediction, because he wasn't the one making the decision to attack Venezuela or not.

This is very different from a fixed bet where a player can bet on getting a yellow card and then deliberately commit a foul on the field and receive a yellow card. I don't see why they should limit government officials, since most of them don't have access to privileged information and don't make important decisions.

[Agbamoni]

That will be the best thing to do but what if they get access through other means and still place their bet with someone else that's a friend or relatives. The poly market is easy to access by anyone. Look at October 10th crypto market disaster, a trader made millions of dollars from that market dump which I know that it was due to an insider. How will one know these insiders leaking the informations.

You speak my mind literally. Nothing can stop the government officials, they will always have their way around it. They can usea fake identity to access the site, where they will pay someone to forge a different identity for them. At the same time, even theif family members will benefit as well, they only need to tell them what to do, which is not against the rules either. Unless they ban the government officials, they should also restrict his/her relations as well. The sad truth is, no matter how they try, the government officials will always find a way around it.

[Die_empty]

On the thread, we also discussed if it is insider work or not, but it is obvious that it is insider work. I think it is a good idea to ban such government officials from accessing prediction markets.

These officials have access to information that can make them place bets and win big amounts. They should be banned from betting on any events that relate to or are connected to their tasks or office. If there are no restrictions, they might end up cheating betting platforms and even bankrupt them. I also see it as unjust or unfair to other gamblers who don't have prior information.

I support the bill to be passed into law. Also it should contain punishments to any goverment officials that is founf quilty. This issues of insider bet mainly within the US government is becoming rampant. It shows that the US president might be surrounded by people who not sincere.  

[boyptc]

It's unethical if one of them have been caught doing bets with the prediction markets or any casino that they are registered.

But even so with all of these laws that will ban them from using prediction markets. They can always have a way to bypass that using other people.

It’s extreme unethical as being politician for using their information to take advantage on gambling and at the same time they are cheating the casino since they already knew the result of the bet in advance which is already a manipulation.

The fact that they are still discussing about this on the house means they are not prepared on the existence of prediction market that involves politics already.

Prediction market might be new to them and they have never anticipated it. But it's not totally different from the sportsbook that have been existing for so long.

There might be a chance that many politicians are doing this inside betting.

There really is and that's why they're making this kind of bill.

They should have made it as a standard protocol for all politicians to avoid getting involve in any betting activity, online or physical.

[Asiska02]

When the house always wins and predictors are left out to lose most of the time, being it a manipulative or non-manipulative market, there will always be a way to by-pass all protocols and predictors get an edge more than the house. Knowing what the outcome of a prediction will be and involving yourself in the prediction market on that is already an offense, because it is like cheating the prediction market.

I love how the prediction markets quickly voice out when they lose big to predictors, even if it was not an insider information that led to the big win, they won’t like predictors to win this big against them. It hurts though and if there will be regulations to stop such government officials from betting, it will actually be a good one. Since it is a thing of the insider, they can also plan to make things in the government work in their favour to win the big bets, so I’ll vote against allowing them to partake against prediction market.

[Porfirii]

While we usually only talk about prediction markets like the mentioned polymarket, these news have gone mainstream and I was surprised that a relative of mine spoke to me about the subject yesterday.

Although some members may be true and some politicians can place bets through front people, that should not be a reason why it would not be advisable to prohibit them from taking advantage of the system. On the contrary, it seems to me to be one more reason why their activity in this regard should be limited, and their vigilance increased. Politicians should thrive in their career for the common good, not personal profit.

[jossiel]

Politicians should thrive in their career for the common good, not personal profit.

I agree, they should focus more on the welfare of their constituents and not for any of their personal profits and interest.

If they have been caught doing these participations and betting with prediction markets, there should be a heavy punishment on any of them.

And that will serve as a warning for those who have been doing such so that the other politicians will be scared if they see how they're punished.

[Ishicryptic]

That will be the best thing to do but what if they get access through other means and still place their bet with someone else that's a friend or relatives. The poly market is easy to access by anyone. Look at October 10th crypto market disaster, a trader made millions of dollars from that market dump which I know that it was due to an insider. How will one know these insiders leaking the informations.

Banning government officials from making predictions especially those that relates to government matters is good but what about their family and friends, if they are not banned also it means that the ban won't be realistic. Prediction bets is not like the regular casino games where they have house edge, in predictions it is external factors that determines the outcomes. Prediction bets won't be easy to control because the results are based on future events that can be manipulated and there is nothing the platform can do but pay if a bettor gets their predictions right.

[qwertyup23]

Whenever a person enters the government, they take an oath that they will serve the public with utmost respect and due diligence. They must remain impartial without any regard to any favor or malice to any person as they must be just.

The moment that politicians enter the gambling scene, this will coincide with their duty of protecting and serving the public. This would also be inimical to their public figure given that people would follow their footsteps as role-models.

In conclusion, politicians should be absolutely prohibited to engage into any kind of gambling or be in the gambling scene in general. Not only would this be harmful to their lives but ultimately the citizens would be affected in this kind of set-up.

[Furball808]

The timing is definitely weird. It could be someone not might be a big position but within the same team of a politician. I know for a fact though that some definitely look at prediction markets when election periods to see what strategies they need to do moving forward. But if it’s for winning money when those are most likely insider info, it’s not just unfair to the rest but also might be violating some laws.

Earlier this week, Polymarket faced scrutiny after a trader won more than $400,000 on a bet that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office before the end of the month. Criticism focused on the timing of the bet, which appeared just hours before U.S. special forces apprehended Maduro.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

We have talked about this quote on this forum and I think it is one of the reasonsg Ritchie Torres (D-NY) and 30 of his House of Representatives colleagues, including Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), are making a push to ban government officials from accessing prediction markets:

Earlier this week, Polymarket faced scrutiny after a trader won more than $400,000 on a bet that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office before the end of the month. Criticism focused on the timing of the bet, which appeared just hours before U.S. special forces apprehended Maduro.

On the thread, we also discussed if it is insider work or not, but it is obvious that it is insider work. I think it is a good idea to ban such government officials from accessing prediction markets.

It is obviously a good idea and agenda to ban government officials from accessing any prediction market and not just polymarket alone, because like the situation above, there is every indication that greedy politicians will somewhat begin to use this to their advantage if not taken care of right now..

We all know how greedy politicians are, in the future, some politicians will even go the extent of creating issues in the government or championing an agenda which they had already and anonymously created a market for on a prediction market, they will do everything they can to see that that agenda pushes through or does not hold just to make money from the prediction market..
They should be out rightly banned from accessing the market else, sooner or later, there is going to be alot of manipulation in the market from politicians for their personal profits.

[dimonstration]

The timing is definitely weird. It could be someone not might be a big position but within the same team of a politician. I know for a fact though that some definitely look at prediction markets when election periods to see what strategies they need to do moving forward. But if it’s for winning money when those are most likely insider info, it’s not just unfair to the rest but also might be violating some laws.

Earlier this week, Polymarket faced scrutiny after a trader won more than $400,000 on a bet that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office before the end of the month. Criticism focused on the timing of the bet, which appeared just hours before U.S. special forces apprehended Maduro.

The timing is indeed coincide to the mysterious winner betting to Maduro arrest. They probably want to protect the integrity of government officials against this some officials do gambling for a living using government information.

This can be used to as way to leak information they didn’t stop it earlier since a questionable big bet on event related to politics will create speculation that this is same with Maduro bet incident.

Removing the possibility of official betting on predictions market will lessen this kind of speculation.

[Wiwo]

While we usually only talk about prediction markets like the mentioned polymarket, these news have gone mainstream and I was surprised that a relative of mine spoke to me about the subject yesterday.

Although some members may be true and some politicians can place bets through front people, that should not be a reason why it would not be advisable to prohibit them from taking advantage of the system. On the contrary, it seems to me to be one more reason why their activity in this regard should be limited, and their vigilance increased. Politicians should thrive in their career for the common good, not personal profit.

Politicians are inherently corrupt and will want whatever way to conceal a d nix their laundered funds and gambling platforms seems to be a good option for them to do, that is the reason government make out laws to exclude them from gambling and predictions site's,  to avoid heavy looting and mixing it without trace.

Aside from the banned we see other sections that are not gambling related, like some countries prohibited government officials from using highly privacy oriented financial platforms, like mixers and whatever can give them means to hide any money coming through them,  $400k is not that much an amount but then we should mentioned that since the news is about the amount in winning.

[Nwada001]

Since the prediction market gained a license for allowing such political events to be predicted, this type of move should have been made. In order for some of the greedy politicians not to take advantage of the inner information they have, they have to exploit the platform, and the ban should also be that they should be restricted from even sharing any information with their relatives or anyone who could use the information to their own advantage, and if they are caught, their position in the house should be threatened. Anyone who can take advantage of such information should also be considered an international threat; maybe they could get to a point where they sell insider information in exchange for money.

[Onyeeze]

On the thread, we also discussed if it is insider work or not, but it is obvious that it is insider work. I think it is a good idea to ban such government officials from accessing prediction markets.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/politicians-able-prediction-markets-house-213657314.html

If I must say; there is no need for any government officials to involves themselves with gambling activities, be it prediction market or gambling site or betting site, that dis-speak their integrity as government officials aren't supposed to involved and associates themselves with gambling activities. If I am not mistakenly there is a section in political law/rulership that speaks against their officials involving in gambling.

Not sure if the intervention of government on predictions market is worldwide intervention, this happens in Venezuela government not generally, so we dont need to be afraid, the way it saw it, it's something that has to do with a particular country government, those politicians who wants to influence and corrupt a predictions market, what's their plans, their plans is to corrupt gambling with their so called selfish interest, I'm of the opinion that they should be ban with immediate effect, since they dont know any other thing to do.

[swogerino]

Since the prediction market gained a license for allowing such political events to be predicted, this type of move should have been made. In order for some of the greedy politicians not to take advantage of the inner information they have, they have to exploit the platform, and the ban should also be that they should be restricted from even sharing any information with their relatives or anyone who could use the information to their own advantage, and if they are caught, their position in the house should be threatened. Anyone who can take advantage of such information should also be considered an international threat; maybe they could get to a point where they sell insider information in exchange for money.

I believe it should be restricted like they are saying they will because not long ago someone did bet on Maduro exit and the next day from 30.000 dollars he got 436.000 dollars within one day and for some that is 10 year of work money in one day. I know that the guy that pulled off that 400.000 dollars profit within one day surely had inside information because no normal person would do that out of the blue as that guy had just opened a brand new account to do so in a platform that predicted such events. Based on this though I can easily say that politicians can pass such information to their families in order to enrich them just in the case of the guy predicting Maduro exit so it really is not preventing politicians totally to get what they want if they are decided to share and benefit from such information.

[Cantsay]

We have talked about this quote on this forum and I think it is one of the reasonsg Ritchie Torres (D-NY) and 30 of his House of Representatives colleagues, including Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), are making a push to ban government officials from accessing prediction markets:

Earlier this week, Polymarket faced scrutiny after a trader won more than $400,000 on a bet that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office before the end of the month. Criticism focused on the timing of the bet, which appeared just hours before U.S. special forces apprehended Maduro.

On the thread, we also discussed if it is insider work or not, but it is obvious that it is insider work. I think it is a good idea to ban such government officials from accessing prediction markets.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/politicians-able-prediction-markets-house-213657314.html

The same way althletes are banned from placing bets on their games so should politicians be treated in prediction because if they are allowed to predicts then it will give them more advantage (which I saw a high member of the prediction maker saying it’s a good thing).

Let’s take the Venezuela’s operation, if it’s truly an insider work then that little prediction was enough to jeopardize the entire operation because once things like this happens people will become suspicious and the news would spread very rapidly voiding any stealth attack that might have been planned.

[Davidvictorson]

We have talked about this quote on this forum and I think it is one of the reasonsg Ritchie Torres (D-NY) and 30 of his House of Representatives colleagues, including Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), are making a push to ban government officials from accessing prediction markets:

Earlier this week, Polymarket faced scrutiny after a trader won more than $400,000 on a bet that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office before the end of the month. Criticism focused on the timing of the bet, which appeared just hours before U.S. special forces apprehended Maduro.

On the thread, we also discussed if it is insider work or not, but it is obvious that it is insider work. I think it is a good idea to ban such government officials from accessing prediction markets.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/politicians-able-prediction-markets-house-213657314.html

What do they mean by proposing a ban on the politicians accessing prediction markets? Do they mean like the politicians making predictions on an event or what? Placing a ban, may not work in my estimation because even that happens, they could use a proxy to access the site.
And for some of these political predictions, in my estimation, if someone has been following sociopolitical landscape, make a 95% prediction will be sure. Because the patterns are easy to see and history always repeats itself.

[aioc]

I think it is a good idea to ban such government officials from accessing prediction markets.

Politicians are known to have dummies and cronies; they can access them and bet using these dummies and cronies, and manipulate bets with their inside knowledge of the situation.
Ban is good on paper, but they can't stop them from exploiting these prediction markets if they can't find a way to trace bets to the politician's camp. Without a system to do that, this ban is useless.

[AmoreJaz]

I think it is a good idea to ban such government officials from accessing prediction markets.

Politicians are known to have dummies and cronies; they can access them and bet using these dummies and cronies, and manipulate bets with their inside knowledge of the situation.
Ban is good on paper, but they can't stop them from exploiting these prediction markets if they can't find a way to trace bets to the politician's camp. Without a system to do that, this ban is useless.

They can always find another third party or other individuals to place bet. I don't think they will use their own credentials betting on a site because that would be like a suicidal action coming from them. So more than likely, some who have like inside information which have betting lines in the market, can really take advantage of this opportunity. But hard to prove who are those politicians who are doing this kind of tactic.